morgan stanley bullish outlook for property

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12-09-17, 15:51
tonymontana

morgan stanley bullish outlook for property

"Morgan Stanley has released the most bullish forecast for the Singapore housing market, expecting private home prices to increase by two percent this year, before rising again by another eight percent next year, reported the Business Times.

This compares with DBS’s forecast of a two percent fall in 2017 and three percent increase in 2018 and another three percent in 2019. OCBC Investment Research, on the other hand, only expects a bottoming out of prices in 2018, with prices falling five percent this year."

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...e-by-8-in-2018
12-09-17, 17:39
Arcachon

How many will believe, guess only those at the showflat.
12-09-17, 17:42
thomastansb

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcachon

How many will believe, guess only those at the showflat.

But that is the fundamental of why prices go up right? Based on huge number of buyers.
12-09-17, 19:21
Arcachon

Quote:

Originally Posted by thomastansb

But that is the fundamental of why prices go up right? Based on huge number of buyers.

The number has not reached the peak.
13-09-17, 08:08
my2cents

Quite true, only a very small percentage hike and with all these high new launching prices, wl be very difficult for any capital appreciation, not to mention, Rental markets are still very very soft, yields are horrible, and future resales wl be worst.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcachon

How many will believe, guess only those at the showflat.
13-09-17, 08:12
Arcachon

Quote:

Originally Posted by my2cents

Quite true, only a very small percentage hike and with all these high new launching prices, wl be very difficult for any capital appreciation, not to mention, Rental markets are still very very soft, yields are horrible, and future resales wl be worst.

At Least their 50K problem is the Bank and not them.
13-09-17, 09:57
tonymontana

Quote:

Originally Posted by my2cents

Quite true, only a very small percentage hike and with all these high new launching prices, wl be very difficult for any capital appreciation, not to mention, Rental markets are still very very soft, yields are horrible, and future resales wl be worst.

rental has dropped from 2010-2012 but that was an anomaly due to sudden spike in demand and lack of supply. Rent is actually normal now. Still quite easy to find tenant. Try to go shopping now with 600-700k, see what you can find. There are hardly any bargains out there.
13-09-17, 10:29
my2cents

I can't agree rental is normal, try asking landlord's incl myself, in fact is still far from "normal", good luck for those who is buying new launches @ 1700-2000 psf for OCD, I rather buy resales, still hv some good bargains out there and prime locations too, but ABSD is not doing any good...sign...

Quote:

Originally Posted by tonymontana

rental has dropped from 2010-2012 but that was an anomaly due to sudden spike in demand and lack of supply. Rent is actually normal now. Still quite easy to find tenant. Try to go shopping now with 600-700k, see what you can find. There are hardly any bargains out there.
13-09-17, 12:06
freesoul

Quote:

Originally Posted by my2cents

I can't agree rental is normal, try asking landlord's incl myself, in fact is still far from "normal", good luck for those who is buying new launches @ 1700-2000 psf for OCD, I rather buy resales, still hv some good bargains out there and prime locations too, but ABSD is not doing any good...sign...

ABSD is going to stay as a norm understand the present circumstances i'm afraid. we have to live with it.
13-09-17, 12:47
freesoul

Quote:

Originally Posted by freesoul

ABSD is going to stay as a norm understand the present circumstances i'm afraid. we have to live with it.

under, not understand, typo
13-09-17, 17:56
tonymontana

Quote:

Originally Posted by my2cents

I can't agree rental is normal, try asking landlord's incl myself, in fact is still far from "normal", good luck for those who is buying new launches @ 1700-2000 psf for OCD, I rather buy resales, still hv some good bargains out there and prime locations too, but ABSD is not doing any good...sign...

when did you first start tracking rental prices? in 2005 rental was even lower than today, and the peak was in 2010-2012.
14-09-17, 08:46
my2cents

2005 ?
14-09-17, 09:19
indomie

Australia has increased stamp duty surcharge for foreigners (ABSD) from 4% to 8% in addition to normal stamp duty of 4%. So foreigners purchasing OZ (nsw and vic) properties are slapped with 12% duties.

Therefore the liquidity that exist in Sg can not be easily exported to other countries. Low interest rates will be persistent. Cooling measures will not be lifted any time soon, because other countries are starting to be protective of their own property market.

So what choice do you have? Waiting for price to crash is a fat hope and slim chance. Soon people will realized the real situation and take any slim margin on the return of Sg property. Because as I mentioned before, a 10% increase on a leveraged Sg property worth more than 100% increase of foreign property over a period of time.
14-09-17, 09:29
frumnat

Logically if low interest rates persist, cooling measures will remain status quo. In the long run, Singapore property remains as an attractive asset class.
14-09-17, 10:04
DMCK

look at the world map, how big is SG? even OCD also not so far out
14-09-17, 10:21
frumnat

Small states should behave like small states? :D
14-09-17, 11:41
tonymontana

Quote:

Originally Posted by my2cents

2005 ?

yes, 2005, not a typo.

you see, over time, rental is increasing steadily in line with population growth, and salaries. But in 2010-2012 there was a sudden influx of demand and shortage of supply. so rentals shot up really quickly. it was an anomaly.
rentals today has normalized back to the average growth rate.

my 2 cents, my2cents.