STOCKS THREAD

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Originally Posted by Wunderkind

Interesting... Dow seems to have moved into positive territory tonight.

But I am not convinced... it may turn out to be just a "dead cat bounce".

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Mr Market is acting strangely these days. Where once you could predict Mr Market's moods, these days you can hardly know how he behaves. One day, he is down in its depression mood and the next day, he is up and smiling.

With the bull running into its 5th year, there is apparently no clear sign that Mr Market is in a worrisome mood. The VIX (fear) index is showing its lowest level since 2008's.

From my rational perspective, I don't take unnecessary risks. Sure, there are many opportunities to capitalize on Mr Market 's exuberant mood, but I rather go for safe and defensive play. I would very likely stay away from Tech and Financials for the time being. I might consider utilities if the opportunity opens even though they are "boring" stocks, but they offer great haven of security and reasonable dividends.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Wunderkind

Mr Market is acting strangely these days. Where once you could predict Mr Market's moods, these days you can hardly know how he behaves. One day, he is down in its depression mood and the next day, he is up and smiling.

With the bull running into its 5th year, there is apparently no clear sign that Mr Market is in a worrisome mood. The VIX (fear) index is showing its lowest level since 2008's.

From my rational perspective, I don't take unnecessary risks. Sure, there are many opportunities to capitalize on Mr Market 's exuberant mood, but I rather go for safe and defensive play. I would very likely stay away from Tech and Financials for the time being. I might consider utilities if the opportunity opens even though they are "boring" stocks, but they offer great haven of security and reasonable dividends.

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Irrational Exuberance ?

S&P is undervalued or over valued :doh::doh:

ISIS making a push towards Baghdad and now Iran sending fighters to help Iraq, so this could get messy in the next few weeks ?.
The uncertainty of this situation and a continued spike in oil should cause a real correction in the stock market ?
To cause a short term nemesis of the Bull ?



A cold summer perhaps ? :doh::doh:

Anybody using OptionsXpress Singapore? Their customer service really sucks big time! Email them a few times yet no reply! :simmering:
They only have this email [email protected]
Wanted to escalate but cannot find any other managers' email!
Wow! Their managers so scare their customers email them!
Scare of people complain them bad service? :p

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Originally Posted by Simi

ISIS making a push towards Baghdad and now Iran sending fighters to help Iraq, so this could get messy in the next few weeks ?.
The uncertainty of this situation and a continued spike in oil should cause a real correction in the stock market ?
To cause a short term nemesis of the Bull ?



A cold summer perhaps ? :doh::doh:

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It is an interesting situation.


On the one hand, the developed economies especially the US is getting its economy back, with unemployment dropping to 6.3% and annual projected GDP growth of 1.3% this year, albeit the inflation is still relatively subdued. What this means is that the Central Banks will continue to adopt a loose monetary policy. Even as the Fed winds down its QE3 programme in October, she will continue to maintain a zero or near zero interest rates to spur consumer lending and consumption. This has given rise to optimism that the stock market will continue to push forward in its trajectory path.

On the other hand, the world situation is becoming less rosy. As the market indices are at their peaks, investors and traders get unnerved by any dose of unfavourable news. The civil war in Iraq , if it is not managed well, may escalate to a middle east crisis especially when neighbouring countries get involved. If oil installations in the South gets hit, the world oil supplies will be impacted.

So what ?

Markets will see volatility as traders start to swing their trading position between fear and greed.


The way for me is not to take unnecessary risks. It may not work for you. Oil related stocks will get a boost with the Iraq situation. So, get in early if you could.

Buy some utilities as a hedge against downsides. Limit purchases for Tech and Financials. Anyway, BAC and C are facing billion dollars law suit, so there's pretty not much in the news that the shares can go higher in the near future.

Market Valuation Overview: Yet More Expensive

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...n-Overview.php

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Originally Posted by teddybear

Anybody using OptionsXpress Singapore? Their customer service really sucks big time! Email them a few times yet no reply! :simmering:
They only have this email [email protected]
Wanted to escalate but cannot find any other managers' email!
Wow! Their managers so scare their customers email them!
Scare of people complain them bad service? :p

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Which dumb ass go use option express. have Etrade don't use. How dumb.

Come on, dumb ass showing up by proving himself to be real dumb ass and an investment novice!
Tell me, E-trade Singapore has future trading facility? :tongue3:

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Originally Posted by minority

Which dumb ass go use option express. have Etrade don't use. How dumb.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by teddybear

Anybody using OptionsXpress Singapore? Their customer service really sucks big time! Email them a few times yet no reply! :simmering:
They only have this email [email protected]
Wanted to escalate but cannot find any other managers' email!
Wow! Their managers so scare their customers email them!
Scare of people complain them bad service? :p

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Ok, I found that 2 alternatives to OptionsXpress that can trade futures and also US equities:
1) ThinkOrSwim - TD Ameritrade
https://www.thinkorswim.com.sg/tos/client/index.jsp

2) Saxo Capital Markets
http://sg.saxomarkets.com/

For people who are frustrated with OptionsXpress, they can look into these 2 brokerages..................

Quote:

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Originally Posted by teddybear

Anybody using OptionsXpress Singapore? Their customer service really sucks big time! Email them a few times yet no reply! :simmering:
They only have this email [email protected]
Wanted to escalate but cannot find any other managers' email!
Wow! Their managers so scare their customers email them!
Scare of people complain them bad service? :p

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Simi

Market Valuation Overview: Yet More Expensive

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...n-Overview.php

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about right .. Dow gold ratio peaked at 40 in 2000, now at 13 (but both gold n Dow are elevated due to QEs)

sell bond, buy stock now!!!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0616_CPI_0.jpg

3y UST closing in on 1%

oil up
stock up
food prices up
bond yield up

the only thing that stops outright run-away inflation is probably US housing

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Originally Posted by Wunderkind

It is an interesting situation.


On the one hand, the developed economies especially the US is getting its economy back, with unemployment dropping to 6.3% and annual projected GDP growth of 1.3% this year, albeit the inflation is still relatively subdued. What this means is that the Central Banks will continue to adopt a loose monetary policy. Even as the Fed winds down its QE3 programme in October, she will continue to maintain a zero or near zero interest rates to spur consumer lending and consumption. This has given rise to optimism that the stock market will continue to push forward in its trajectory path.

On the other hand, the world situation is becoming less rosy. As the market indices are at their peaks, investors and traders get unnerved by any dose of unfavourable news. The civil war in Iraq , if it is not managed well, may escalate to a middle east crisis especially when neighbouring countries get involved. If oil installations in the South gets hit, the world oil supplies will be impacted.

So what ?

Markets will see volatility as traders start to swing their trading position between fear and greed.


The way for me is not to take unnecessary risks. It may not work for you. Oil related stocks will get a boost with the Iraq situation. So, get in early if you could.

Buy some utilities as a hedge against downsides. Limit purchases for Tech and Financials. Anyway, BAC and C are facing billion dollars law suit, so there's pretty not much in the news that the shares can go higher in the near future.

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I wrote before that the US markets are behaving strangely these days and indeed they are and will be so even in the weeks ahead. All because the markets have now reached their record peak levels and any breach beyond their current peaks means that the markets are treading into unchartered territory- something that grips the market with trembling excitement. It is a strange phenomenon like that of eating the forbidden fruit ; a mixture of greed and fear. And so it is, you will see the market swinging between positive and negative territory in the weeks ahead.

So what ?

Depending on your risk appetites, you can either stay at the sidelines and watch or plunge into the market swiftly or run for the exits when the market crumbles.

If you ask me, I would advocate the policy of not taking unnecessary risks even if you have the money to burn. This is the time to wait for correction or if you can't wait, go for the dividend plays.

Mr chestnut, do you have other stock tip?

IMHO, in such markets, I go for the cyclicals - banks, commodities, techs ... Stock indices like S&P has very high probability of making newer highs.... :cheers1:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Wunderkind

I wrote before that the US markets are behaving strangely these days and indeed they are and will be so even in the weeks ahead. All because the markets have now reached their record peak levels and any breach beyond their current peaks means that the markets are treading into unchartered territory- something that grips the market with trembling excitement. It is a strange phenomenon like that of eating the forbidden fruit ; a mixture of greed and fear. And so it is, you will see the market swinging between positive and negative territory in the weeks ahead.

So what ?

Depending on your risk appetites, you can either stay at the sidelines and watch or plunge into the market swiftly or run for the exits when the market crumbles.

If you ask me, I would advocate the policy of not taking unnecessary risks even if you have the money to burn. This is the time to wait for correction or if you can't wait, go for the dividend plays.

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No peak yet. STI stuck in 3200 range and china SSE still stuck in 2000 range. Interest rate has not yet reach 5%. The best has yet to come. Dow likely above 20000. S&P above 2000, nasdaq above 5000

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Originally Posted by teddybear

IMHO, in such markets, I go for the cyclicals - banks, commodities, techs ... Stock indices like S&P has very high probability of making newer highs.... :cheers1:

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It is possible that DOW , NASDAQ and S&P can still reach new highs. Between now and then, there will be periods of volalillity. The belief that the markets still have some runway to go is partly fueled by the idea that " Hey! There is no better returns than stocks. Forget about bank deposits " and partly by the idea that " There is always the Central Bank to bail out the stock market, I mean the economy, right ?"

So, yes, the markets can shoot higher. But of course, the risk is equally high.
So what am I saying ?

Again, I advocate the fundamental policy of not taking unneccessary risks. But this does not mean not taking risks at all. Take calculated risks. If you know the world situation today, you would have put some bets on oil related stocks, utititles and even healthcare stocks ( this sector came to my list of stocks recently ). I have stayed away from Financials for now although I have some of them in my list of stockwatch.

Now underweight Singapore high yield and bond, to add to NDX / QQQ on dip

Singapore high yield might need to correct 10-15% to attract buyers again as US Fed might hike rate faster than expected (Some REITs like Ascendas and CMT, CDLHT are leading losers)

Negative on Singapore property stocks too

One negative about CPF/SRS Account is cannot buy US stocks .. anybody knows any "loophole"??

Sigma design interesting stock. Bought some.

The dovish Fed sent S&P500 to record high

S&P should be above 2000 in no time!
That should send another round of eureka to newer high! :cheers1:

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Originally Posted by phantom_opera

The dovish Fed sent S&P500 to record high

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by phantom_opera

Now underweight Singapore high yield and bond, to add to NDX / QQQ on dip

Singapore high yield might need to correct 10-15% to attract buyers again as US Fed might hike rate faster than expected (Some REITs like Ascendas and CMT, CDLHT are leading losers)

Negative on Singapore property stocks too

One negative about CPF/SRS Account is cannot buy US stocks .. anybody knows any "loophole"??

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How I wish investing is simple game and a predictable market. But it is not to be. By trading in/out often, we are exposing our human emotional weakness which in long run we will not make any money.

Isn't US stocks quite volatile? Does one need to monitor whole day or can set auto sell if rises or drops at a certain level?

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Originally Posted by mummy

Isn't US stocks quite volatile? Does one need to monitor whole day or can set auto sell if rises or drops at a certain level?

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Hi mummy

Posted this to you almost 3 weeks ago
Maybe you have missed this

http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...&postcount=881

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Originally Posted by cbsh38584

How I wish investing is simple game and a predictable market. But it is not to be. By trading in/out often, we are exposing our human emotional weakness which in long run we will not make any money.

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so what is your suggestion? secret dollar cost averaging formula or voluntary contribution to cpf :tsk-tsk:?

Dollar Cost averaging should be for busy investor with no time to monitor the market.:)

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Originally Posted by phantom_opera

so what is your suggestion? secret dollar cost averaging formula or voluntary contribution to cpf :tsk-tsk:?

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Originally Posted by phantom_opera

so what is your suggestion? secret dollar cost averaging formula or voluntary contribution to cpf :tsk-tsk:?

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Just buy S'pore blue chip like Singpost , SPH , UOB , Singtel , OCBC, Keppel corp etc. Just keep it. It will be better to buy on every big correction. Better if he or she has the courage to buy during a big crisis. A discipline income investors in long run will definitely beat inflation.

My friend told me his father (80 yr old) collects almost S$80k plsu dividend every year from his S$1m plus blue chip stock he bought many years ago. Still holding the blue chip stocks.

A person who trade often are likely to go for wealth (Get rich). But only a few % of the traders will be successful. To be a really successfully trader, it also need to "pay school fee" to learn from mistakes & survive. It is a long pain journey. Some may never learn as there is a saying "OLD habits die hard". Mistakes repeated again & again.


As for me, I only buy when there is fear.I just don't care what the FED chairman said. I bought OUE @2.25 during the fear. Now it is 2.50. Don't know the reason for the sudden jump.

When there is a huge correction like Lehman crisis, one should go for property (aka cheapest leverage u can get) ... when property market already up 50% and stagnant, trade some stocks to have fun :D

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In his book Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment, Swensen recommends the following allocations, for individual investors who want a “well-diversified, equity-oriented portfolio”:

30% Domestic stock funds
20% Real estate investment trusts
15% U.S. Treasury bonds
15% U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities
15% Foreign developed-market stock funds
5% Emerging-market stock funds

In an interview with Yale magazine, Swensen said, economic conditions might call for a modest revision. He now recommends that investors have 15 percent of their assets in real estate investment trusts, and raise their investment in emerging-market stock funds to 10 percent.

This someone's summary about Swenson investment philosophy:

1. You need equities to protect against inflation and generate maximum returns

2. Diversification is good; index mutual funds provide a lot of diversification compared to holding individual equities, but foreign stocks are even better

3. Corporate bonds are a worthless investment class because they have equity-like risk (the company might fold and stop paying) and government bond-like returns; buy equities and U.S. government bonds

4. Hedge funds are inappropriate for individuals because it takes too much time and expertise to figure out which hedge fund managers are competent

5. Asset allocation is the primary determiner of total return; you need to make a careful decision about how much to put into the various classes of investment; approximately 90 percent of the difference in portfolios is determined by asset allocation, leaving only 10 percent to be determined by security selection (which stocks someone picked) and market timing (attempting to buy and sell at favorable moments)

5. Rebalancing is key; if one asset class does exceptionally well, sell it while it is hot and rebalance your portfolio until that asset class is back down to where you thought it should be; similarly, suppose that domestic equities fall in value--that is the time to buy more and bring their percentage of the portfolio back up to what it was designed to be

6. In choosing an index fund, choose one that matches a well constructed index that won't force the fund to buy and sell a lot; the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 are good indices; the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are bad because there is so much turnover in which stocks constitute the index

Rebalancing can be difficult for properties as they are less liquid and transaction cost is high so u cannot do it annually

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Wunderkind

It is possible that DOW , NASDAQ and S&P can still reach new highs. Between now and then, there will be periods of volalillity. The belief that the markets still have some runway to go is partly fueled by the idea that " Hey! There is no better returns than stocks. Forget about bank deposits " and partly by the idea that " There is always the Central Bank to bail out the stock market, I mean the economy, right ?"

So, yes, the markets can shoot higher. But of course, the risk is equally high.
So what am I saying ?

Again, I advocate the fundamental policy of not taking unneccessary risks. But this does not mean not taking risks at all. Take calculated risks. If you know the world situation today, you would have put some bets on oil related stocks, utititles and even healthcare stocks ( this sector came to my list of stocks recently ). I have stayed away from Financials for now although I have some of them in my list of stockwatch.

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What goes up can easily come down. Therefore, before you leap, you need to understand the business which is the stock that you are investing in. You need to do some homework on the business. Check the fundamentals and their growth strategy and assess them in the light of developments both current and future.

I have selected a list of US stocks that provide a reasonably good dividend yield while at the same time, they show growth potential especially in light of the current world situation. Some of the stocks like ESV & BP still offer potential opportunity for upside, but others may have, in my opinion, limited upsides as they have run up quite substantially in the last few weeks.

Same advice as always -- don't take unnecessary risks. If you can't sleep at night, you have crossed the line.