Which Developer will be hit most?

[richwang]

I am thinking of shorting some property counters (sorry for that). What worries me is not the price drop (we know it will be somewhere about 5-10% and not more than 30% after our heated debates). What worries me most is the VOLUME drop (just count the word "dead" in this forum you will know what I mean). Maybe agents on the ground can tell me what is the drop for September transaction amount. My indecator shows 80% of the participants in this forum are gone. I guess those analysts sitting in the office will be negatively shocked when they see September numbers (in mid October?) So we have a window opportunity to act.

Which developer will be hit most?

Thanks,
Richard
PS. "Cashrich", my indicator shows you are one of the earliest people called "SELL" by my "word" count. I respect your hard work! Any tips on which projects are negatively surprised?

[richwang]

I've searched all the property put warrents, too bad only two available:

CapitaLand to drop below 3.71 by 01 Feb 2011
CapitaLand to dorp below 3.33 by 02 Dec 2010

Are they attractive bets?

Thanks,
Richard

[devilplate]

today ur genting upppp....

[BV]

I've searched all the property put warrents, too bad only two available:

CapitaLand to drop below 3.71 by 01 Feb 2011
CapitaLand to dorp below 3.33 by 02 Dec 2010

Are they attractive bets?

Thanks,
Richard

I would think that if you are betting on LOCAL property prices falling, Capitaland might not be your best bet as they have VERY significant presence in other countries. E.g. CDL might be affected more if local property prices fall, all other things being equal.

You might want to take a look at those developers whose business is mainly local residential property development. Of cos, such warrants are highly unlikely to be available, given that these companies most likely to be affected are probably smaller developers...

[richwang]

today ur genting upppp....

Genting stock price is up 5%, Put Warrent is down 12%. I was wondering why there was no resistance at S$1.68, now you see. Market says it is short covering: imaging those guys short it on Monday, they want to have a happy weekend.
MACD remains negtive, I am still holding my position. It will be very critical for next week.

Thanks,
Richard

[Geylang OKT]

I prefer construction counters as no matter what, the govt is actively pushing infrastructure projects (think malayan railway), upper bt timah expressway, marina bay devts. More hdb flats, bto, dbss. And developers whether price up or down still must deliver on their projects

[Geylang OKT]

I've searched all the property put warrents, too bad only two available:

CapitaLand to drop below 3.71 by 01 Feb 2011
CapitaLand to dorp below 3.33 by 02 Dec 2010

Are they attractive bets?

Thanks,
Richard

Let me share with you guys this interesting article

WORDS OF WISDOM FOR THE DAY : Stock Trading Is A Probability Game......!

As a trader, you have to forget about finding a sure thing. You must accept the fact that the stock market can do anything at anytime. If you are not convinced, consider that there are millions of traders trading for institutions, funds, investors, swing traders, scalpers, etc all acting together in different time frames and using different types of analysis, playing against each other, in the hope of transferring money from others into their pocket during the trading hours. Stock trading is fact a zero-sum game !

Fact: Trading is not about guessing the future because it cannot be done.
If you accept this fact, then it is much easier to take losses without destroying your self-esteem. You take a trade, you accept that you don’t know what will happen next. You have no expectations that this trade will turn into a winner. Your only expectation is that something will happen. So how do you make money not knowing what will happen next?

You treat trading as a probability game. Here is an example of a probability game:
Let’s say I roll a dice:
- I pay $1 each time I play
- If I roll a 3, a 4, a 5, or a 6 then I win $2. If I roll a 1 or a 2 then I don’t win anything.

Clearly, every time I roll the dice I have no idea what the outcome will be. But I know that for every roll the odds are in my favor. In the long run, I will win 4 times out of 6, which means that I will pay $6 to win $8. I will be a consistent winner if I play long enough. In mathematical terms, your expected win each time you play is (4/6) X $2 = $1.33 meaning $0.33 profit (remember you pay $1 to play).

So how do we translate this into trading?

Each time you roll the dice, you don’t know the outcome, the same as for each individual trade. But each time you roll the dice, you must make sure the odds are in your favor to make money, and you will make money if you play long enough. It does not mean that you have to win more often that you lose. It also depends on how much you win when you win and how much you lose when you lose.

How do you put the odds in your favor?

You have to develop a trading edge using technical analysis, fundamental analysis, market internals, etc.. You have to have a number of variables that must be present before you enter a trade and always use the same set of variables.

Your edge is your strategy to enter and exit trades and should be well defined in your trading plan. All that can be summarized as follows:
- For each trade you take, you don’t know the outcome, you accept that anything can happen, and therefore you have no expectation for that trade.
- You believe in your trading strategy, that is you believe that for each trade you take the odds are in your favor.
- You believe that the outcome over a series of trades is relatively certain and predictable.

To go back to the dice example: will you get mad or feel stupid when you don’t roll a winning number? No because with a dice you accept the fact that you cannot know the outcome. You have no expectation. Apply the same idea to your trades and save your self-esteem.

This idea of treating trading as a probability game made a big difference in the way you feel about losses. If you have a good trading plan, with a strategy to enter and exit trades, then a successful trade is one for which you followed your plan, not necessarily a winning trade.

And remember, you will never know if your strategy works if you don’t follow it.

[richwang]

I prefer construction counters as no matter what, the govt is actively pushing infrastructure projects (think malayan railway), upper bt timah expressway, marina bay devts. More hdb flats, bto, dbss. And developers whether price up or down still must deliver on their projects

Any list in your mind and why?

I have some, but none of them have passed my Divdend yield requirement. Maybe I should go into some REITs...

Fragrance
Sim Lian
Hiap Hoe
Ho Bee

Thanks,
Richard

[cashrich]

I am thinking of shorting some property counters (sorry for that). What worries me is not the price drop (we know it will be somewhere about 5-10% and not more than 30% after our heated debates). What worries me most is the VOLUME drop (just count the word "dead" in this forum you will know what I mean). Maybe agents on the ground can tell me what is the drop for September transaction amount. My indecator shows 80% of the participants in this forum are gone. I guess those analysts sitting in the office will be negatively shocked when they see September numbers (in mid October?) So we have a window opportunity to act.

Which developer will be hit most?

Thanks,
Richard
PS. "Cashrich", my indicator shows you are one of the earliest people called "SELL" by my "word" count. I respect your hard work! Any tips on which projects are negatively surprised?

Thanks for the compliments. Anyway I am no expert and have no tips too. Others might want to share.

[cashrich]

I've searched all the property put warrents, too bad only two available:

CapitaLand to drop below 3.71 by 01 Feb 2011
CapitaLand to dorp below 3.33 by 02 Dec 2010

Are they attractive bets?

Thanks,
Richard

Stocks can fall the zero but property cannot.

Stocks are easily manipulated if you have the ability to do so.

Stocks are not for everyone too.

[richwang]

today ur genting upppp....

Stock is up 7.5% in one day, and warrent is down 20% in one day.
Nice weekend! Cheers! Richard

[rattydrama]

Local construction counter cannot buy for long term. Hit and run type.

Most man con boss ah beng ah seng type.

Even GM/Group GM from XYZ ex government agency, the controlling power is still under ah beng ah seng.

They have no fixed assets to brag of.

Buy only for future potential and quickly sell away before price goes south.

I prefer construction counters as no matter what, the govt is actively pushing infrastructure projects (think malayan railway), upper bt timah expressway, marina bay devts. More hdb flats, bto, dbss. And developers whether price up or down still must deliver on their projects

[DC33_2008]

CDL is a good counter. Movement is fast whether up or down but there is always a low resistance price level and move up very quickly.

[gn108]

I love City Dev - being playing this counter for years.
For those who can hold this counter for years and want a cheap entry, try the NCCPS - its undervalued by 30% and gives 3.27% dividend yield.

[richwang]

today ur genting upppp....

Cutting my short position now. Making losses, in particular the bid/ask spread is rather wide. As of now, it is 0.035/0.065. Imagining, if someone tells you to buy his property, you need to pay 650K, but to sell the same property immediately, you can only sell for 350K. So derivetives can be much less liquidity than property.

Thanks,
Richard

[solarius]

short oxley once it's IPO-ed =)

[richwang]

short oxley once it's IPO-ed =)

Not sure. There are only 2 property stocks listed on Catalist.

Bund Centor listed at 0.255, then moved up all the way to 0.62, it is now 0.51.
GoodLand listed at 0.28, went down to 0.16, it is now 0.15.

I will give Catalist a miss, too speculative.

Thanks,
Richard

[mcmlxxvi]

Not sure. There are only 2 property stocks listed on Catalist.

Bund Centor listed at 0.255, then moved up all the way to 0.62, it is now 0.51.
GoodLand listed at 0.28, went down to 0.16, it is now 0.15.

I will give Catalist a miss, too speculative.

Thanks,
Richard

Goodland's Vetro just TOP. Should be good on the books for a boost.