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Thread: Release of Q2 Statistics

  1. #31
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    don't worry about bro HP65, he has holding power. i agree with him for long term view. hold until en-bloc (not sure when though).

    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    exactly. the market rate of this townhouse is probably $3psf, $36psf per year. He rejected an offer of $1550 psf. that means the buyer would have had a rental yield of just 2.3%, if he intended to rent it out. with all the incidental costs, the true yield is just about 2%, not much higher than fixed deposit rates.

    I believe it was a mistake for him to reject the offer. I am actually surprised to hear from him that someone made that offer. Heard some really grim stories about this place.

  2. #32
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    gotta ask bro HP65. my guess is $500 (could it be more?! )

    Quote Originally Posted by Jadey
    Thats true, so it should be around $3.16 psf x 4200 x 12 = $159,264 per year.

    How much you reckon will be the maintenance cost for town houses?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jadey
    the yield will be below 2% if you take into consider the financing cost of 1-1.5%
    to bring the rental yield to 3% per year, the buyer should offer only $1200psf. but the buyer is willing to buy $1,550, why? if indeed that is not a lie, the buyer probably had en bloc in mind. but en bloc at good prices for that location is unlikely.

    to make a offer of 1,550 work, the en bloc price should be at least 1700psf. adding construction cost of 400psf, the new condo has to sell at least 2,200 to break even. that is why, enbloc is not likely.

    d'leedon can't sell even at 1600psf.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    to bring the rental yield to 3% per year, the buyer should offer only $1200psf. but the buyer is willing to buy $1,550, why? if indeed that is not a lie, the buyer probably had en bloc in mind. but en bloc at good prices for that location is unlikely.

    to make a offer of 1,550 work, the en bloc price should be at least 1700psf. adding construction cost of 400psf, the new condo has to sell at least 2,200 to break even. that is why, enbloc is not likely.

    d'leedon can't sell even at 1600psf.
    Tulip garden, spanish village and SP all have a plot ratio of 1.6. Not alot if you ask me, if the buyer buys at 1600psf, the upside of an en bloc will not be too big. The downside of not having an en bloc and to wait for another 1 or 2 decade will be even greater. $1200psf on the other hand will be a very attractive offer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    to bring the rental yield to 3% per year, the buyer should offer only $1200psf. but the buyer is willing to buy $1,550, why? if indeed that is not a lie, the buyer probably had en bloc in mind. but en bloc at good prices for that location is unlikely.

    to make a offer of 1,550 work, the en bloc price should be at least 1700psf. adding construction cost of 400psf, the new condo has to sell at least 2,200 to break even. that is why, enbloc is not likely.

    d'leedon can't sell even at 1600psf.
    developers can offer much higher price if the plot ratio is not maximized, plus 10% bonus GFA for balcony. Developers only need to pay DC for balcony bonus and unused plot ratio, which will bring down the average land cost. To me that's where the value of enbloc is. Since SP is 33 years old, most likely it has such enbloc potential since the baseline is on the master plan ages ago

    D'leedon units are transacted between $1,487 and $1,757psf, what do you mean by it cannot sell at 1600psf?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpinCity
    developers can offer much higher price if the plot ratio is not maximized, plus 10% bonus GFA for balcony. Developers only need to pay DC for balcony bonus and unused plot ratio, which will bring down the average land cost. To me that's where the value of enbloc is. Since SP is 33 years old, most likely it has such enbloc potential since the baseline is on the master plan ages ago

    D'leedon units are transacted between $1,487 and $1,757psf, what do you mean by it cannot sell at 1600psf?
    D'leedon average transaction price for the last 2Q is around $1570 to 1590 and the average size is about 900sqft.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jadey
    D'leedon average transaction price for the last 2Q is around $1570 to 1590 and the average size is about 900sqft.
    need I say more?

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    D'leedon is LH99, so it loses the premium of a FH unit.
    Sommerville, tulip garden and spanish village are all big development with many units. But currently developers now are very reluctant to spend alot of money on a single plot of land. Furthermore, these 3 developments are competing among themselves for a more attractive price for the developers. LOL.
    Normally during an en bloc, the bigger townhouse, mas units will get less psf compared to the smaller units. My guess is that if an en bloc does go thru, GH's townhouse will fetch around 19xx-21xx psf. The price of paying 15xxpsf with CM4 does not sound very attractive to me.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by windcar
    D'leedon is LH99, so it loses the premium of a FH unit.
    Sommerville, tulip garden and spanish village are all big development with many units. But currently developers now are very reluctant to spend alot of money on a single plot of land. Furthermore, these 3 developments are competing among themselves for a more attractive price for the developers. LOL.
    Normally during an en bloc, the bigger townhouse, mas units will get less psf compared to the smaller units. My guess is that if an en bloc does go thru, GH's townhouse will fetch around 19xx-21xx psf. The price of paying 15xxpsf with CM4 does not sound very attractive to me.
    if d'leedon cannot sell at $1600psf, what is the chance of a redeveloper of Sommerville selling at 2,800psf, which is needed to make the en bloc purchase worthwhile.

    developers can make more money by buying OCR lands from the Government. Just look at FEO's profit margin at the tennery.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    need I say more?
    No need to say anything, I find the information for you to make it easier:
    From URA's website:
    From Apr to Jun, D'Leedon unites transacted between S$1,482psf to S$2,055 psf from Apr to June 2011

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    if d'leedon cannot sell at $1600psf, what is the chance of a redeveloper of Sommerville selling at 2,800psf, which is needed to make the en bloc purchase worthwhile.

    developers can make more money by buying OCR lands from the Government. Just look at FEO's profit margin at the tennery.
    who says the developer have to sell at 2800psf?

    if GH's unit sell to developer at 2000psf, it does not mean that the developer are paying 2000psf per plot ratio. Maybe they are only paying 1300psf per plot ratio? which means they can break even if they sell you at 1800psf for the new unit.

  12. #42
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    back to fundamentals, rental of OCR still going up more than CCR.

    it seems that there is still a lot of rental demand at the low end of the market, be it hdb flats or OCR condos. but i also hold the view that will change in the years down the road.

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2011/pr11-95.html

    Rentals
    Rentals of private residential properties4 increased by 1.3% in 2nd Quarter 2011, compared with the 1.2% increase in the previous quarter (see Annexes A-3 & A-45).

  13. #43
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    I recently rejected a $25xx psf offer from some agent don't know how they get to know my number and owned unit (who is selling our data to these agents? ). Sell prime Orchard at such price? I must be an idiot!

    Quote Originally Posted by HP65
    Cool, q-o-q, CCR is increasing and RCR and OCR are decreasing!! Looks like the tide is turning! Congrats to CCR supporter

    Guess those commie who pretended to blast CCR, hoping that the price gap will narrow enuf for them to switch can only dream on

    I just rejected a $1550 psf offer for my 33 year old sommerville park unit

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    14.7k for SP townhouse is simply not realistic unless its fully renovated.
    Sorry have to speak up for HP65. I have a friend who also has a townhouse in sommerville. It's rented out 14.5k 3 months ago. At the time already considered low. He also had an offer ard 6m I think, and he rejected.

    Have u actually been there ? Very big apartment and land size. Very peaceful and convenient. Remind me of Yong An Park. The value of this type of property lies both in its location and its big land size. My friend is very firm not to sell it. He said ppl in SG had not really realized the value of prime land, especially large prime land next to botanic garden.

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    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    Very big apartment and land size. Very peaceful and convenient.. The value of this type of property lies both in its location and its big land size. My friend is very firm not to sell it. He said ppl in SG had not really realized the value of prime land, especially large prime land next to botanic garden.
    Well said. The lush green serene ambiance is a great contrast to the busy road outside. Not all will appreciate quiet peaceful surrounding n the charm of the area.

  16. #46
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    i m not putting HP65 down at all, so no need to speak up for him. i agree with you on the charm of sommerville and yong an. but really depends on the condition of the unit. becoz i got the impression that HP65 did not do much renovation in the last 30 years hence, i said 14.7k is not realistic.

    Rental for big units has not gone up much in the last 3 months has it?

    i am all for big old units/land size (agreeing with proud owner) but from an en-bloc perspective. but for those looking from rental perspective, better have holding power.

    i still think BIG NEW units got problem justifying their prices though. low rental yield, yet plot ratio maximised liao.

    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    Sorry have to speak up for HP65. I have a friend who also has a townhouse in sommerville. It's rented out 14.5k 3 months ago. At the time already considered low. He also had an offer ard 6m I think, and he rejected.

    Have u actually been there ? Very big apartment and land size. Very peaceful and convenient. Remind me of Yong An Park. The value of this type of property lies both in its location and its big land size. My friend is very firm not to sell it. He said ppl in SG had not really realized the value of prime land, especially large prime land next to botanic garden.

  17. #47
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    some coincidence. the title of today's cover page of City & Country pullout of "The Edge": Growth in prime rents to soften.

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    i feel that the main reason for price increase is the housing shortage of HDB causing the overall property market to rise. This caused the price being pushed upwards (biggest increase is seen in HDB and the lowest increase in prime location).
    In a purely speculative market, the price is being pulled upwards by prime location and the price increase is tapered down to the lower end housing.
    Just my thought and i may be wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    some coincidence. the title of today's cover page of City & Country pullout of "The Edge": Growth in prime rents to soften.
    got soft copy to share?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpinCity
    From URA's website:
    From Apr to Jun, D'Leedon unites transacted between S$1,482psf to S$2,055 psf from Apr to June 2011

    There are a total of 56 transactions for D'Leedon between Apr to Jun 2011.
    The average psf price is $1597psf and average size is 837sqft.

    The 2055 you highlighted is one-off and it is for a 786sqft unit.

  21. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    No, I wouldn't call it undervalued. just because D10 properties have stagnated doesn't mean it will come back to catch up with the rest. Temporary irrationality can cause a class of assets to be temporarily undervalued. but D10 properties' stagnation is not due to irrationality. D10 properties have lost their edge over properties in the suburb. People have no reason to live in D10, as they did before.

    I frankly won't live in D10 even if I could pay lower prices for properties there than I would D5 prices.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jadey
    Private home subsales rise 10.6% in Q2
    With speculators out, supply chain is more efficient now: Savills

    By KALPANA RASHIWALA
    THE number of private homes sold in the subsale market, which is often used as a proxy of speculative activity, rose 10.6 per cent quarter on quarter to 712 units in the second quarter of this year, but this pace of increase was slower than a nearly 27 per cent jump reflected in the 4,562 new private homes sold by developers, according to Savills' analysis.

    'With speculators weeded out from the market after the higher seller's stamp duty (SSD) rates introduced in January, more genuine home buyers now have direct access to choice units from developers in the primary market. So the supply chain has become more efficient with the 'middlemen' or speculators cut out', said Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong.

    'The full impact of the January 2011 anti-speculation measures will need time to work their way through the system since the SSD would affect only those who bought a private home from Jan 14 and sell it within four years of purchase,' he added.

    The SSD rates are 16, 12, 8 and 4 per cent respectively for those who sell their properties in the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase respectively.

    Those who had, a few years earlier, picked up private homes which are now still under construction, would generally still find it worthwhile to divest them, given the recovery in property values since the global financial crisis, say property consultants. This is expected to continue to contribute to a steady stream of subsale activity.
    'This will especially be the case for projects which are close to or have just been completed since buying interest in such developments is typically higher among those who would like to purchase a property that they can move into or rent out immediately,' says Ong Choon Fah, DTZ's COO and head of consulting and research, SE Asia.

    Subsales refer to secondary-market deals in pro-jects that have yet to receive a Certificate of Statutory Completion (CSC).

    Resales, which are also secondary-market transactions but involve projects with CSC, rose 17.5 per cent quarter on quarter to 4,144 units in Q2 2011, shows Savills' analysis of caveats captured by URA Realis.
    The subsale and resale figures were based on caveats lodged (excluding en bloc sales) while new home sales by developers were based on developers' submissions to Urban Redevelopment Authority's surveys. The latest Q2 developer sales figure was compiled as the sum of monthly sales from April to June 2011; however, the final tally to be released by URA today may be lower as it will take into account units returned by buyers.

    Savills' analysis covered landed and non-landed properties, excluding executive condos, which are a hybrid of public and private housing.
    The study showed that the most popular non-landed project in the subsale market in Q2 2011 was Livia in Pasir Ris (29 subsales), followed by 10 Shelford (24 subsales), The Clift along McCallum Street (22 units), Clover by The Park in Bishan (21 units) and Double Bay Residences in Simei (21 units).
    The Clift received Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) in Q1 this year while Livia and Clover by The Park clinched the same approval this month. Typically, CSC for a project can be obtained one to six months after it has received TOP.

    District 12 (which includes Balestier and Toa Payoh) was the most popular subsale district among non-landed homes in Q2, followed by prime districts 9 and 11.

    Among non-landed resale transactions, the most sought-after districts were 15 (which includes Katong, Telok Kurau, East Coast Road and Siglap), 10 and 16.

    In the landed resale segment, District 19 (which includes Upper Serangoon and Hougang) topped the chart, followed by District 15 and 16. The last includes Upper East Coast, Bedok and part of Upper Changi Road East.
    Clearly the market dont see eye to eye with you. There are still many pple whom appreciate the lush greenery and diverse character of D10, chances D10 becomes lower than D5 is not too high in the near future. As least in the mind of the majority.

    Anyway its a good thing, so u wont be faced with an option to purchase at a lower price(than D5) to consider "downgrading" to D10 in the far away future. Its a good thing your wife hates D10 as well.

  22. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jadey
    There are a total of 56 transactions for D'Leedon between Apr to Jun 2011.
    The average psf price is $1597psf and average size is 837sqft.

    The 2055 you highlighted is one-off and it is for a 786sqft unit.
    I was talking about the range of the samples; what's wrong with it?
    It is too early to call that 2055psf/786sqft transaction an outlier now. Even the mean of 1597psf to which you refered is good enough to prove that D'Leedon can sell at 1600psf as a good portion of the transactions were done above 1600psf to result in the mean

  23. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpinCity
    I was talking about the range of the samples; what's wrong with it?
    It is too early to call that 2055psf/786sqft transaction an outlier now. Even the mean of 1597psf to which you refered is good enough to prove that D'Leedon can sell at 1600psf as a good portion of the transactions were done above 1600psf to result in the mean
    numbers can be very misleading if they are not presented properly.

    Some Lakeside apartments are already going for $1400psf, so there is no reasons to doubt that D'Leedon will go above average price of $1600 soon. However looking at the average unit size of 786sqft, I think it does show some weakness in that development.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    No, I wouldn't call it undervalued. just because D10 properties have stagnated doesn't mean it will come back to catch up with the rest. Temporary irrationality can cause a class of assets to be temporarily undervalued. but D10 properties' stagnation is not due to irrationality. D10 properties have lost their edge over properties in the suburb. People have no reason to live in D10, as they did before.

    I frankly won't live in D10 even if I could pay lower prices for properties there than I would D5 prices.
    Wow....strong statement..... Even same prices he wants to stay at west coast side.....amazing

  25. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jadey
    numbers can be very misleading if they are not presented properly.

    Some Lakeside apartments are already going for $1400psf, so there is no reasons to doubt that D'Leedon will go above average price of $1600 soon. However looking at the average unit size of 786sqft, I think it does show some weakness in that development.
    Serious? Lakeside units selling 1400Psf? Don't mind share which development, I wanna check it out.

    I comb thru D22 briefly, average 800 Psf n below. Centris touch 1k Psf . quiet scary to think someone dare chong 1400 when average Psf is ard 800psf. 1400psf issit those 350sqft hse? Ard $500k to buy "hotel room" house?

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    I recently rejected a $25xx psf offer from some agent don't know how they get to know my number and owned unit (who is selling our data to these agents? ). Sell prime Orchard at such price? I must be an idiot!
    TB, I agree. If SC can afford to hold out Hilltops at $5000 psf and slowly A&A that place unit by unit, I dun see why you should sell out prime Orchard at 50% discount. Last weekend, I thought I saw somebody swimming at Hilltop main pool and from my place, it looks like only 2 units are occupied (at night can see only 2 units with lights on, furniture in the unit, with people moving around). The rest of the other units still machiam like under renovation. Unless its SC himself swimming in the pool

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    Quote Originally Posted by HP65
    TB, I agree. If SC can afford to hold out Hilltops at $5000 psf and slowly A&A that place unit by unit, I dun see why you should sell out prime Orchard at 50% discount. Last weekend, I thought I saw somebody swimming at Hilltop main pool and from my place, it looks like only 2 units are occupied (at night can see only 2 units with lights on, furniture in the unit, with people moving around). The rest of the other units still machiam like under renovation. Unless its SC himself swimming in the pool
    No wonder teddy so fed up lor....i believe his unit aso can fetch 2500psf in 07....hehe

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    To pay 6mil for a townhse in sp....must b foreigner? I wud go for landed n rebuild if i got such budget

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jadey
    numbers can be very misleading if they are not presented properly.

    Some Lakeside apartments are already going for $1400psf, so there is no reasons to doubt that D'Leedon will go above average price of $1600 soon. However looking at the average unit size of 786sqft, I think it does show some weakness in that development.
    Interesting, you use the "asking price" of 1400psf as the benchmark for the whole Lakeside area, but discount the actual "transacted price" of 2000psf for D'Leedon which is only one development
    Last edited by isaacycc; 23-07-11 at 10:33.

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    Quote Originally Posted by isaacycc
    Interesting, you use the "asking price" of 1400psf as the benchmark for the whole Lakeside area, but discount the actual "transacted price" of 2000psf for D'Leedon which is only one development
    Wah...ur first virgin post after 2yrs....

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