A few CCR transactions sold at a loss (reported in The Edge)

[wannabe]

OK let me throw you some analogies and explanations.

From supply angle
1. Do you know how many spare and empty cars are parked in carparks and landed homes not used even on a monthly basis? Why do people need to do that???
2. For some of the "empty" units, they could also be potentially used by foreign owners who come to SG periodically and need the place to stay but are often not in SG.

From demand angle:
1. You are right to say there is no need to rush in when there seems to be "excess supply" with developers by 20-30K. But its a good time to examine what ticks your boxes, and if one ticks all the boxes and is priced within range, there is also no need and no point in waiting. Would you rather wait till the "excess supply" is 5K left? In that scenario, you will have no choice but to be kanchiong and perhaps cannot even choose what you want - just sweep.

To answer your question, so far a few of my boxes are not ticked yet lor.
In terms of my criteria for property investment, the Box labelled "Price" carries a weightage of >50%

[wannabe]

In order to be sincere, can anyone of us post current available fire-sale(more than 20% lower than transacted price) listing here. Not transacted sale.

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...soleil-sinaran

22nd Mar 2016 SOLEIL @ SINARAN, 2,Sinaran Drive #29-XX 1,464 $2,720,000 $1,858
12th Oct 2015 SOLEIL @ SINARAN, 6,Sinaran Drive #08-XX 1,464 $2,440,000 $1,667

Not sure if u consider this a fire-sale.

[Kelonguni]

To answer your question, so far a few of my boxes are not ticked yet lor.
In terms of my criteria for property investment, the Box labelled "Price" carries a weightage of >50%

We must thank our lucky stars that prices were held since 2013 while HK and China cities soared by 50% more since then.

If you want CCR plus good location near MRT plus excellent floor plan plus good facilities plus good floor plus plus plus... and must be really really firesales price...

It's like asking for real MSW durian (even during massive supply last year) at $5 per kg.

When the supply conditions changes (such as this year), let's see if you can still get anything under $10 per kg.

There are at least a half dozen ways to cope if price is your major consideration.

[wannabe]

We must thank our lucky stars that prices were held since 2013 while HK and China cities soared by 50% more since then.

If you want CCR plus good location near MRT plus excellent floor plan plus good facilities plus good floor plus plus plus... and must be really really firesales price...

It's like asking for real MSW durian (even during massive supply last year) at $5 per kg.

When the supply conditions changes (such as this year), let's see if you can still get anything under $10 per kg.

There are at least a half dozen ways to cope if price is your major consideration.

I don't need good facilities. Looking at older developments now.
And to be frank, i really only eat MSW.

[Kelonguni]

I don't need good facilities. Looking at older developments now.
And to be frank, i really only eat MSW.

So would you rather pay last year's price and buy / eat more or would you do that at this year's prices?

Can eat, eat liao. Durian drop already quickly pick, open and whack!!! Below $10 per kg MSW I only saw last year.

[wannabe]

So would you rather pay last year's price and buy / eat more or would you do that at this year's prices?

Can eat, eat liao. Durian drop already quickly pick, open and whack!!! Below $10 per kg MSW I only saw last year.

Ate already. Cannot be too greedy and overeat, will get indigestion.

[Spincity1]

OK let me throw you some analogies and explanations.

From supply angle
1. Do you know how many spare and empty cars are parked in carparks and landed homes not used even on a monthly basis? Why do people need to do that???
2. For some of the "empty" units, they could also be potentially used by foreign owners who come to SG periodically and need the place to stay but are often not in SG.
3. Some information below to help you - why is it that rents are still falling as a whole and why are some landlords not/less affected? What is the best strategy in this environment?
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...-still-falling
4. What is the newly added supply of private housing from 2016 onwards?

From demand angle:
1. You are right to say there is no need to rush in when there seems to be "excess supply" with developers by 20-30K. But its a good time to examine what ticks your boxes, and if one ticks all the boxes and is priced within range, there is also no need and no point in waiting. Would you rather wait till the "excess supply" is 5K left? In that scenario, you will have no choice but to be kanchiong and perhaps cannot even choose what you want - just sweep.

In the context of investors who buy for rental income:

Your analogy of car is not really valid as those cars most likely are not for investment purpose, and not for rent for rental income.
As for the units owned by foreign owners and left vacant when they are not in Singapore, for one this shall fall under own-stay as these units are not on the rental market; and I suspect that this shall be a relatively small amount compare to the whole market
When you find a unit with all boxes ticked, then you shall ask yourself, is this the right price

One day, the excess supply will be absorbed and drop from 30K to 5K, but the million dollar question is, when and at what price


if you fall under the category of "buying for collection purpose, no need for rental income, fine with leaving the units vacant, don't care about the short to mid term uncertainty, and don't mind if the price suffers a drop in the next few years" of investors, by all means buy the units your like

Property is for people to stay in and this is the real demand.
So long the real demand excess the supply, real estate price will go up, and vice versa

[Kelonguni]

My context for that statement was for the notion of many empty units so price must fall. Based on my observation, those empty units were not even real supply.

There are also many EC units empty and awaiting MOP. Real supply?

In the context of investors who buy for rental income:

Your analogy of car is not really valid as those cars most likely are not for investment purpose, and not for rent for rental income.
As for the units owned by foreign owners and left vacant when they are not in Singapore, for one this shall fall under own-stay as these units are not on the rental market; and I suspect that this shall be a relatively small amount compare to the whole market
When you find a unit with all boxes ticked, then you shall ask yourself, is this the right price

One day, the excess supply will be absorbed and drop from 30K to 5K, but the million dollar question is, when and at what price


if you fall under the category of "buying for collection purpose, no need for rental income, fine with leaving the units vacant, don't care about the short to mid term uncertainty, and don't mind if the price suffers a drop in the next few years" of investors, by all means buy the units your like

Property is for people to stay in and this is the real demand.
So long the real demand excess the supply, real estate price will go up, and vice versa

[Spincity1]

My context for that statement was for the notion of many empty units so price must fall. Based on my observation, those empty units were not even real supply.

There are also many EC units empty and awaiting MOP. Real supply?

for private units, as you rightfully pointed out, some many not be real supply as they are used for own-stay when the owners are in town. However, I believe that at least more than half of them are real supply, especially those in the newer development

As for EC, just ask yourself, what's the purpose for waiting for MOP?

[wannabe]

36 MIRO 1 Lincoln Road #17-03 132 2050000 1443 05-May-2016 11 Freehold 2012 Resale Apartment Strata 1
37 MIRO 1 Lincoln Road #17-03 128 2220000 1611 27-Oct-2009 11 Freehold Uncompleted New Sale Apartment Strata 1

Not sure if Bro BH has posted this.

[Kelonguni]

So we must give a discount to the actual supply just based on vacant units. Some others are for rental and some transiting for future stay. Still others act as fund parking instrument.

EC MOP needs 5 years. We don't know how future supply will be like whether for rental or sales.

Are we going to wait 5 years to see?

for private units, as you rightfully pointed out, some many not be real supply as they are used for own-stay when the owners are in town. However, I believe that at least more than half of them are real supply, especially those in the newer development

As for EC, just ask yourself, what's the purpose for waiting for MOP?

[wannabe]

14 THE ARC AT DRAYCOTT 5 Draycott Drive #08-02 105 2250000 1991 10-May-2016 10 Freehold 2008 Resale Apartment Strata 1
15 THE ARC AT DRAYCOTT 5 Draycott Drive #08-02 105 2486000 2200 22-Jun-2007 10 Freehold Uncompleted Sub Sale Apartment Strata 1

Have seen this development few years ago.
Quite nice.

[Spincity1]

So we must give a discount to the actual supply just based on vacant units. Some others are for rental and some transiting for future stay. Still others act as fund parking instrument.

EC MOP needs 5 years. We don't know how future supply will be like whether for rental or sales.

Are we going to wait 5 years to see?

The 20-30k excess supply refers to those unsold units, completed or under construction;
these sold but unoccupied, private or public, units are in addition to that, which can make the situation even worse.
Do you need to wait for 5 years to see that?

[amk]

when the ABSD is removed.....the gap between market and asking price will disappear, so the price to the buyer will be 10% cheaper.

seriously, you really believe that ? this is a wishful thinking from buyer perspective. a similarly wishful thinking from seller perspective will be 10% higher asking. so the final number will be something in between. however, experience tells me this: if ABSD is really removed, the *sentiment* will drive up the price much more than the tax itself.

I believe today is a good time to bargain hunt CCR gd units. There will always be some marginal investors that want to leave the market. And/Or some developers who want to clear stocks. (Ardmore 3 ?)

btw, pty investment is an "investment" that carries a risk, not a bao jiat. If you only invest when there is no more risk, then you can wait forever. Your age however, goes only one direction. There are just only these many 5y windows in your life. The whole point of pty investment is high leverage + long mortgage

[wannabe]

seriously, you really believe that ? this is a wishful thinking from buyer perspective. a similarly wishful thinking from seller perspective will be 10% higher asking. so the final number will be something in between. however, experience tells me this: if ABSD is really removed, the *sentiment* will drive up the price much more than the tax itself.

I believe today is a good time to bargain hunt CCR gd units. There will always be some marginal investors that want to leave the market. And/Or some developers who want to clear stocks. (Ardmore 3 ?)

btw, pty investment is an "investment" that carries a risk, not a bao jiat. If you only invest when there is no more risk, then you can wait forever. Your age however, goes only one direction. There are just only these many 5y windows in your life. The whole point of pty investment is high leverage + long mortgage

Well for me i rather pay 7% higher price than pay 7% more tax, at least that is reflected on the caveat.

[Spincity1]

seriously, you really believe that ? this is a wishful thinking from buyer perspective. a similarly wishful thinking from seller perspective will be 10% higher asking. so the final number will be something in between. however, experience tells me this: if ABSD is really removed, the *sentiment* will drive up the price much more than the tax itself.

I believe today is a good time to bargain hunt CCR gd units. There will always be some marginal investors that want to leave the market. And/Or some developers who want to clear stocks. (Ardmore 3 ?)

btw, pty investment is an "investment" that carries a risk, not a bao jiat. If you only invest when there is no more risk, then you can wait forever. Your age however, goes only one direction. There are just only these many 5y windows in your life. The whole point of pty investment is high leverage + long mortgage

you are right, a 10% drop in price is theoretical, the actual change in price shall be somewhere in between, depends on the location
I believe that CCR is a relative safer bet at his moment, if you have to put your money in real estate now, or for own-stay purpose. In fact, I a, looking for a bigger unit in CCR for own-stay, but in no rush to commit.

If buying for investment, investors must weight between downside risk and upside potential. What do you see now? more upside potential or downside risk?
If the whole point is high leverage and long mortgage, one shall be even more cautious as the equity is thin and mortgage servicing period is long; your equity is subject to the price movement both ways and your interest payment will be affected by interest rate

What's your view on interest rate? Can the interest rate going much lower to reduce the interest payment?
Will the price go up from here to increase your equity?

As for me, I will only buy for own-stay now.

BTW, leverage for ppty investment is not as high as before

[Kelonguni]

Like you mentioned, they are being built. Several years before they reach market. Population continue to grow, very few new supply through GLS. Some enbloc coming.

Private property are treated similarly to cars in terms of supply and demand regulation. They are non essential goods. Don't be like car buyers, 38K COE dowan to buy 68K then all try to squeeze in.

It's quite straightforward for me.

The 20-30k excess supply refers to those unsold units, completed or under construction;
these sold but unoccupied, private or public, units are in addition to that, which can make the situation even worse.
Do you need to wait for 5 years to see that?

[Spincity1]

Like you mentioned, they are being built. Several years before they reach market. Population continue to grow, very few new supply through GLS. Some enbloc coming.

Private property are treated similarly to cars in terms of supply and demand regulation. They are non essential goods. Don't be like car buyers, 38K COE dowan to buy 68K then all try to squeeze in.

It's quite straightforward for me.

I really see no much similarity between between cars and private properties. the analogy is baseless to me

population continue to grow? at what rate? compared to the the rate of increase is housing supply (private and public)? with or without foreigners?
GLS is less for now, but I have no doubt it will be released as soon as there are signs of decreasing inventory

Anyway, I will only buy for own stay at the moment, and in no rush to commit.
If you do think that it is a good time to buy now as mentioned in your previous posts, let us know when you commit to a property

[Pynchmail]

The buyers have to pay the ABSD so the buyers pay more
The ABSD has no direct impact on the sellers, so the sellers so they will just receive the asking price, not less.

the actual market price is 10% higher than the asking price, and the difference goes the government

when the ABSD is removed, will the market shoot up?

the gap between market and asking price will disappear, so the price to the buyer will be 10% cheaper.

I happen to view this the opposite way:

The sellers have to absorb ABSD so the sellers will get less.
ABSD has no effect on the buyers. The buyers have a fixed return or yield in mind. This will be based on total cost including price of property plus ABSD.

Therefore, the actual price is 10% lower than the market price, and the difference goes to the government.

When ABSD is removed, seller will up price by 10%, but buyer will still be paying the same total amount.

[Kelonguni]

It's fine if you want to slowly see.

Yes, I have recently made my move after finding one that ticks all my boxes.

The relation between the two is quite apparent. I have explained to Arcachon before. At the heart, they are amongst the two biggest components determining TDSR calculations. Why relax car loans but not property loans? It has an indirect effect on both actually. But car loans can achieve a higher interest rate with a lower debt quantum.

The relation between public and private housing is very similar to that between public and private transport or medical. Private ___ are all optional provisions but essential for progressive tax to be functional. My two cents.

I really see no much similarity between between cars and private properties. the analogy is baseless to me

population continue to grow? at what rate? compared to the the rate of increase is housing supply (private and public)? with or without foreigners?
GLS is less for now, but I have no doubt it will be released as soon as there are signs of decreasing inventory

Anyway, I will only buy for own stay at the moment, and in no rush to commit.
If you do think that it is a good time to buy now as mentioned in your previous posts, let us know when you commit to a property

[stalingrad]

you are right, a 10% drop in price is theoretical, the actual change in price shall be somewhere in between, depends on the location
I believe that CCR is a relative safer bet at his moment, if you have to put your money in real estate now, or for own-stay purpose. In fact, I a, looking for a bigger unit in CCR for own-stay, but in no rush to commit.

If buying for investment, investors must weight between downside risk and upside potential. What do you see now? more upside potential or downside risk?
If the whole point is high leverage and long mortgage, one shall be even more cautious as the equity is thin and mortgage servicing period is long; your equity is subject to the price movement both ways and your interest payment will be affected by interest rate

What's your view on interest rate? Can the interest rate going much lower to reduce the interest payment?
Will the price go up from here to increase your equity?

As for me, I will only buy for own-stay now.

BTW, leverage for ppty investment is not as high as before

"I believe that CCR is a relative safer bet at his moment"

This I have heard it for at least 20 years. CCR was CCR 20 years ago, and it is no more. Singapore has no more CCR, nor RCR, nor OCR. It is the same country wherever you go, the same shopping malls, the same brands and franchises, and very soon the same schools.

[Spincity1]

"I believe that CCR is a relative safer bet at his moment"

This I have heard it for at least 20 years. CCR was CCR 20 years ago, and it is no more. Singapore has no more CCR, nor RCR, nor OCR. It is the same country wherever you go, the same shopping malls, the same brands and franchises, and very soon the same schools.

Well, I guess that the term "CCR" have been used to loosely as not all properties in CCR are the same.
To me, CCR refers to neighbours around Orchard, such as paterson, ardmore, cairnhill, grange and orchard blvd. the price of the some development there has dropped significantly. between 2000-2500 psf in these area and 1500psf in some OCR/RCR developments, it is an easy decision to make.

Your statement of "Singapore has no more CCR, nor RCR, nor OCR. It is the same country wherever you go, the same shopping malls, the same brands and franchises, and very soon the same schools." can't be further from the fact.
it doesn't hold true for any city with reasonable size of area and population, where the housing prices varies for different areas in the city.

[Spincity1]

It's fine if you want to slowly see.

Yes, I have recently made my move after finding one that ticks all my boxes.

The relation between the two is quite apparent. I have explained to Arcachon before. At the heart, they are amongst the two biggest components determining TDSR calculations. Why relax car loans but not property loans? It has an indirect effect on both actually. But car loans can achieve a higher interest rate with a lower debt quantum.

The relation between public and private housing is very similar to that between public and private transport or medical. Private ___ are all optional provisions but essential for progressive tax to be functional. My two cents.

Cars and properties are different in nature, one is consumable and the other is not
for this argument, the similarity between them is they both are accounted for in TDSR calculation, together with credit card and other interest bearing loans.

the difference between public and private housing, and that between transportation and medical service is that, housing is about long term ownership, the others mainly services. They look similar but different in fact

Congrats on making your investment

[Spincity1]

I happen to view this the opposite way:

The sellers have to absorb ABSD so the sellers will get less.
ABSD has no effect on the buyers. The buyers have a fixed return or yield in mind. This will be based on total cost including price of property plus ABSD.

Therefore, the actual price is 10% lower than the market price, and the difference goes to the government.

When ABSD is removed, seller will up price by 10%, but buyer will still be paying the same total amount.

in the current market sentiment, buyers have the upper hand on pricing; the 10% drop may not be fully reflected in the price but the buyers shall get a bigger piece of the pie. Just my thought

[Pynchmail]

in the current market sentiment, buyers have the upper hand on pricing; the 10% drop may not be fully reflected in the price but the buyers shall get a bigger piece of the pie. Just my thought

Yes, true.
ABSD only applies to investment properties (unless you are PR), and hence yield and returns are important, which is why I think the sellers are likely to bear it more. This is also why OCR price dropped less because more are bought by locals for own stay, while CCR price dropped more because more are affected by ABSD. If you add the effect of ABSD to CCR prices, I think you will find the price decline to be close to OCR.

[Kelonguni]

You can look at it this way as well.

The emergence of Uber and Grab caused cars to increase in value due to the potential for private rent. It's not as simple as personal usage only.

And because Govt allowed them to bid under the same pool of COEs, the price of all vehicle COEs (other than bikes) have stayed stickily high.

The similarity angle can be seen when you think where the Govt is going to draw taxes to fund all the pprogrammes that continue to increase in costs.

Thanks for the well wishes.

Cars and properties are different in nature, one is consumable and the other is not
for this argument, the similarity between them is they both are accounted for in TDSR calculation, together with credit card and other interest bearing loans.

the difference between public and private housing, and that between transportation and medical service is that, housing is about long term ownership, the others mainly services. They look similar but different in fact

Congrats on making your investment

[stalingrad]

Well, I guess that the term "CCR" have been used to loosely as not all properties in CCR are the same.
To me, CCR refers to neighbours around Orchard, such as paterson, ardmore, cairnhill, grange and orchard blvd. the price of the some development there has dropped significantly. between 2000-2500 psf in these area and 1500psf in some OCR/RCR developments, it is an easy decision to make.

Your statement of "Singapore has no more CCR, nor RCR, nor OCR. It is the same country wherever you go, the same shopping malls, the same brands and franchises, and very soon the same schools." can't be further from the fact.
it doesn't hold true for any city with reasonable size of area and population, where the housing prices varies for different areas in the city.

20 years ago, to go to a decent food court or to purchase a decent set of cookware, you had to go to Orchard. To attend a decent cram school, you had to go to CCR. Now, Singapore has been homogenized. That explains CCR, OCR and RCR are not longer what they were. Which explains why home prices have been equalized.

You seem to believe what goes down must come back up for CCR. I don't believe that and if you believe that, go ahead and make my day.

[Spincity1]

20 years ago, to go to a decent food court or to purchase a decent set of cookware, you had to go to Orchard. To attend a decent cram school, you had to go to CCR. Now, Singapore has been homogenized. That explains CCR, OCR and RCR are not longer what they were. Which explains why home prices have been equalized.

You seem to believe what goes down must come back up for CCR. I don't believe that and if you believe that, go ahead and make my day.

Just look at the town or city you living in now and see if the prices of properties in different areas are equalized and you will know the answer, and it will save your day.

[bargain hunter]

14 THE ARC AT DRAYCOTT 5 Draycott Drive #08-02 105 2250000 1991 10-May-2016 10 Freehold 2008 Resale Apartment Strata 1
15 THE ARC AT DRAYCOTT 5 Draycott Drive #08-02 105 2486000 2200 22-Jun-2007 10 Freehold Uncompleted Sub Sale Apartment Strata 1

Have seen this development few years ago.
Quite nice.

thanks for filling in while bargain hunter is on leave.

[wannabe]

thanks for filling in while bargain hunter is on leave.

LOL, no prob bro, we know you have a tough job.
Beside the thread was getting a little feisty with all the arguments.
Better to stick to its original intent.