A few CCR transactions sold at a loss (reported in The Edge)

**teddybear** · 04-09-14, 21:20

What you said proved that the market has crashed, isn't it? Who is denying that market has not crashed?

Originally Posted by bargain hunter

in the current market, some observations:

1) sentosa condos, we have seen 2 units which were sold around 2700psf and sold for 1400psf, almost 50% down. feels like this area has been de-rated out of investors' radar. so let's not discuss this further, unless there are any bro/sis who are keen to buy there.

2) the peaked at 3600psf ardmore park as catsick had pointed out, 1 unit has transacted at 26xxpsf. 1000psf off is between 25 to 30% off. however, we need to consider that some units have better views (for now). so for this highest luxury end (but old), in the current market, good buys are at around 25% off peak.
3) the widely discussed grange infinite. ARA fund bought at 2600psf and sold at 2100psf. 20% discount.
4) as we move even further down in both psf and quantum, we have seen that developers have been able to move stock at 10 to 15% discounts. similarly so for resales. e.g. tribeca (there is some discussion in that thread), a 13% discount off the peak for a similar unit. So i'd say, for units around 2000psf, good buys mean buying at 15% off the peak for a similar sized but superior unit.

**bargain hunter** · 04-09-14, 22:49

if u noticed, my point 2) was referring to the 3k+ and above and discount 25%, good buy at 25% discount.

point 3) relates to the 2600psf or more now discounted to 2100psf. 20%

point 4) refers more to say around 2350 discounted to 2000psf or even those below, peaked at 2000psf, now 1700psf would be good buy. in the latest tribeca unit's case, 19xx peak vs 1680psf now.

Originally Posted by safetyfirst

Thanks for the observation.

To understand your pt 4 correctly, which is the deciding point, ard 2k psf or 10 to 15% discount off the asking price. Reason for asking being that some highly priced projects are asking 3k psf and above and a 15% discount may mean that psf is still ard high 2k plus psf.

**bargain hunter** · 04-09-14, 22:51

1) basic said will crash but everyone slam him leh?
2) i don't know who you are referring to who is denying that market has not crashed.
3) sentosa can be classified as crashed, the rest of CCR, still considered correction? i'm not sure.

Originally Posted by teddybear

What you said proved that the market has crashed, isn't it? Who is denying that market has not crashed?

**bargain hunter** · 04-09-14, 22:55

$2m is deemed "affordable" for D9 and 10. correction is minimal. perhaps this is evidence to bro teddy that certain segments has not crashed.

if going by my staggered discount observation, around 2000psf/$3m in quantum or thereabouts units, good buy is at 15%, then at $2.5m, discount could be around 10% and $2m units, only need 5 to 10% discount off peak and can find buyers liao. (provided it is a good unit)

Originally Posted by smellyfish

Have the @2 million plus in district 9, 10 start to move downwards meaningfully?

**teddybear** · 04-09-14, 23:51

Basic has been singing crash for many years already lah, he is perpetual bear............ (not like me also bear...

)

If any specific market has crashed, then there is a crash right?
If only specific market/locality crashed but others didn't means policy loop-sided and poorly conceived?

I am referring to somebody who was reported in the news saying that there is no property market crash................

Originally Posted by bargain hunter

1) basic said will crash but everyone slam him leh?
2) i don't know who you are referring to who is denying that market has not crashed.
3) sentosa can be classified as crashed, the rest of CCR, still considered correction? i'm not sure.

**triproton** · 05-09-14, 08:33

Originally Posted by bargain hunter

$2m is deemed "affordable" for D9 and 10. correction is minimal. perhaps this is evidence to bro teddy that certain segments has not crashed.

if going by my staggered discount observation, around 2000psf/$3m in quantum or thereabouts units, good buy is at 15%, then at $2.5m, discount could be around 10% and $2m units, only need 5 to 10% discount off peak and can find buyers liao. (provided it is a good unit)

I was looking at a 2 bedder (#21-03) at Suites @ Central since last year. Seller asked for $2.6m early last year, reduced to $2.5m this year and finally sold at $2.3m in July. Seller bought it for $2.35m in 2011 I think. So he made a loss plus SSD. Transacted price is a 12% drop from his original asking price. So, there are significant drops even for 2m+ units in D9.

**catsick** · 05-09-14, 12:12

I think the price falls are all the high quantum stuff as the biggest impact is from TDSR , the stuff that people buy to rent out is the worst effected as why pay 10% stamp duty to get 2% yield will take 5 years to just get the stamp back , if you need to sell an expensive property you need to chop the price

I think 10 mio quantum -25%
5 mio quantum -15%
3 mio quantum -10%
2 mio quantum -5%
1 mio quantum flat

for sentosa double the fall

Most non HDB properties in SG are 1-2 mio quantum, so the index of property prices not impacted a lot

**bargain hunter** · 05-09-14, 13:49

i was referring to recently transacted price vs peak (transacted price) for the project. in 2012, the #11-03 set the peak psf at 2471psf. the recent transaction 2273psf. hence, the discount from peak is 8%. in line with the 5 to 10%, if you can find a superior unit, its a good buy.

there are of course, many other factors to consider. its just an observation that the % discount decreases with psf and quantum level.

we can't really use asking price becoz those were imaginary numbers before TDSR decidedly sent the market for CCR down.

Originally Posted by triproton

I was looking at a 2 bedder (#21-03) at Suites @ Central since last year. Seller asked for $2.6m early last year, reduced to $2.5m this year and finally sold at $2.3m in July. Seller bought it for $2.35m in 2011 I think. So he made a loss plus SSD. Transacted price is a 12% drop from his original asking price. So, there are significant drops even for 2m+ units in D9.

**bargain hunter** · 05-09-14, 13:53

based on the ardmore park transaction, we can look for good buys for:

5 to 10m at 25% discount
3 to 5m 15%
2 to 3m 10%
<2m 5%
1m no discount don't buy?

Originally Posted by catsick

I think the price falls are all the high quantum stuff as the biggest impact is from TDSR , the stuff that people buy to rent out is the worst effected as why pay 10% stamp duty to get 2% yield will take 5 years to just get the stamp back , if you need to sell an expensive property you need to chop the price

I think 10 mio quantum -25%
5 mio quantum -15%
3 mio quantum -10%
2 mio quantum -5%
1 mio quantum flat

for sentosa double the fall

Most non HDB properties in SG are 1-2 mio quantum, so the index of property prices not impacted a lot

**bargain hunter** · 05-09-14, 14:07

some examples of old condos in the 2m quantum:

Euro asia court
25 AUG 2014 3 RIVER VALLEY CLOSE #04-02 RESALE 1,453 STRATA 1,486 2,160,000 PRIVATE

no higher psf unit transacted for this size. but even for smaller unit, peak psf for this project was 1577psf, discount off peak is 5.77%

Claremont
26 AUG 2014 161 KILLINEY ROAD #06-06 RESALE 1,453 STRATA 1,575 2,288,000 PRIVATE

new record for a non penthouse unit in this project in quantum terms. 2nd highest psf (peak was 1600psf for a smaller unit). discount off peak is a mere 1.56%.

there seems to be some buyers for low 2m quantum and discounts are harder to come by.

**bargain hunter** · 05-09-14, 14:35

1 bedder at the metz

21 AUG 2014 83 DEVONSHIRE ROAD #15-03 RESALE 581 STRATA 2,581 1,500,000 PRIVATE

peak psf was 2,753psf and 1.6m.

quantum wise, the discount is "only" 100k. discount is 6.25%. so the lower the quantum, the lesser the discount. despite psf in the 2500 to 27xxpsf range.

**sporadic** · 05-09-14, 17:36

Originally Posted by bargain hunter

1 bedder at the metz

21 AUG 2014 83 DEVONSHIRE ROAD #15-03 RESALE 581 STRATA 2,581 1,500,000 PRIVATE

peak psf was 2,753psf and 1.6m.

quantum wise, the discount is "only" 100k. discount is 6.25%. so the lower the quantum, the lesser the discount. despite psf in the 2500 to 27xxpsf range.

I remember viewing the metz in 2005. The one bedder was going for $700+k...unfortunately, I didn't take the plunge as it was above my budget. (First home).
Everytime I walk by the place with my spouse, I go 'Big Mistake!'.

**bargain hunter** · 05-09-14, 19:58

in 2005, not many people could afford to buy prime, hence the low price. many were still reeling from the 98 till SARS crisis. i would say almost all properties bought between 2003 to 2005 have at least doubled their value based on the current prices.

Originally Posted by sporadic

I remember viewing the metz in 2005. The one bedder was going for $700+k...unfortunately, I didn't take the plunge as it was above my budget. (First home).
Everytime I walk by the place with my spouse, I go 'Big Mistake!'.

**Werther** · 13-09-14, 18:09

Was browsing squarefoot and saw one transaction that caught my attention.

The pier 600 sq ft $1.16m ard $1760psf... Maybe decoupling?

**bargain hunter** · 13-09-14, 18:19

Sold 26 AUG 2014 80 MOHAMED SULTAN ROAD #06-02 657sq ft 1,767psf

Bought 22 DEC 2006 1,256psf

seems like normal profit taking?

**Werther** · 13-09-14, 18:47

Originally Posted by bargain hunter

Sold 26 AUG 2014 80 MOHAMED SULTAN ROAD #06-02 657sq ft 1,767psf

Bought 22 DEC 2006 1,256psf

seems like normal profit taking?

You could be right. At $1.1xm, good buy for buyer.

**Werther** · 13-09-14, 18:49

Just wonder, at this price, isn't it a better buy than those new launch like commonwealth twr or highline at tiong bahru. Any thoughts?

**bargain hunter** · 13-09-14, 19:09

http://condo.singaporeexpats.com/con...ER-@-ROBERTSON

657 sq ft but its still just a one bedroom. road facing also. $1.16m for a one bedroom seems "normal"? not like its super cheap.

**Werther** · 13-09-14, 20:00

, someone I know bought for $1.4xm, maybe slight larger for investment. So in term of rental, I guess not much different in rental $4k plus .

**bargain hunter** · 13-09-14, 20:56

maybe that one is pool facing unit lor. stack 4 and 26 are pool facing (sort of) units.

**bargain hunter** · 13-09-14, 21:05

some buyers just feel that FREEHOLD + CCR is a more worthy buy than the 99 year projects you mentioned below. these new projects have units which are smaller in size and higher in psf, selling point is low quantum.

the buyers of CCR Freehold try to look for acceptable size at acceptable psf and hopefully can afford the quantum.

other reasons why pple buy highline vs this unit for e.g.:

this unit is only 1 bedroom. from the highline thread: 2BR (667sqf)
#10-14 = $1,208,000 (1,811 psf)

its a 2 bedroom unit.

pay a little more (e.g. your friend's 1.4xm), can get a 915 sq ft 3 bedder at #06-11 = $1,462.7K (1,598psf)

Originally Posted by Werther

Just wonder, at this price, isn't it a better buy than those new launch like commonwealth twr or highline at tiong bahru. Any thoughts?

**Werther** · 13-09-14, 23:07

Originally Posted by bargain hunter

some buyers just feel that FREEHOLD + CCR is a more worthy buy than the 99 year projects you mentioned below. these new projects have units which are smaller in size and higher in psf, selling point is low quantum.

the buyers of CCR Freehold try to look for acceptable size at acceptable psf and hopefully can afford the quantum.

other reasons why pple buy highline vs this unit for e.g.:

this unit is only 1 bedroom. from the highline thread: 2BR (667sqf)
#10-14 = $1,208,000 (1,811 psf)

its a 2 bedroom unit.

pay a little more (e.g. your friend's 1.4xm), can get a 915 sq ft 3 bedder at #06-11 = $1,462.7K (1,598psf)

That's true also...agree with your analogy.

**minority** · 14-09-14, 07:35

Originally Posted by bargain hunter

some buyers just feel that FREEHOLD + CCR is a more worthy buy than the 99 year projects you mentioned below. these new projects have units which are smaller in size and higher in psf, selling point is low quantum.

the buyers of CCR Freehold try to look for acceptable size at acceptable psf and hopefully can afford the quantum.

other reasons why pple buy highline vs this unit for e.g.:

this unit is only 1 bedroom. from the highline thread: 2BR (667sqf)
#10-14 = $1,208,000 (1,811 psf)

its a 2 bedroom unit.

pay a little more (e.g. your friend's 1.4xm), can get a 915 sq ft 3 bedder at #06-11 = $1,462.7K (1,598psf)

well depends on wat space u value. I rather feel 667sqf 1 bed room more livable than a 667psf 2bed room though.

**sherlock** · 16-09-14, 21:00

double post

**sherlock** · 16-09-14, 21:04

Originally Posted by Werther

You could be right. At $1.1xm, good buy for buyer.

On hindsight, easy to say. But back in 2006, it was pretty high....

**Kelonguni** · 17-09-14, 11:22

UOB’s non-performing housing loans soared to 34.2 percent in Q2 2014, or its highest level since Q4 2004, reported the media.

The sharp spike surprised Maybank Kim Eng given the perception that UOB is one of Singapore’s more conservative home lenders, with only a slight year-to-date correction in Singapore’s house prices.

“We understand its NPLs were isolated to a group of borrowers who had invested in Turquoise, a high-end condominium project in Sentosa,” said Maybank in a report.

URA data showed that two units there changed hands in Q2 2014 at 45 percent discount to their launch prices.

The report noted that the transactions “stoked fears that it is a matter of time before default cases become widespread, undermining Singapore banks’ profitability that has been propped up by low charge-off rates.”

To ascertain sentiment on the Sentosa micromarket, Maybank examined recent transactions of non-landed properties there.

It found that there are nine condominium projects in Sentosa. The first four, launched during the nascent recovery of Singapore’s property market in 2004 to 2005, had an average selling price of below $1,600 psf, while the remaining five, which were launched later, were priced above $2,600 psf.

“In our view, the large losses at Turquoise can be partially explained by the project’s higher launch price,” said Maybank.

Notably, Turquoise’s launch price of $2,605 psf is about 75 percent higher than the average price at The Oceanfront ($1,360 psf) and The Coast ($1,592).

“These two were launched one year ahead of Turquoise. This could mean that higher-priced projects at Sentosa are at greater risk of a price correction,” said the report

**bargain hunter** · 19-09-14, 10:36

chip eng seng's luxury boutique developments seem to have not made much money for the funds which bought them. worse, the retail buyers who bought from them at the peak of the luxury boom in 2007 are all sitting on paper losses. with the ARA fund which has now sold all but one unit at Grange Inifinite, attention can now be moved to Cityvista.

http://www.aboutsingaporeproperty.co...roperty-funds/

"The buyer is said to be a property fund managed by Alpha Investment Partners. Alpha is a unit of Keppel Land.

The transaction involves 28 apartments (three and four-bedders) and two penthouses. The price for the apartments is thought to be about $1,850 per square foot (psf). The psf price for the two penthouses is said to be much lower as they come with substantial roof terrace areas, making up about half of their saleable area."

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...sta-residences seems like its the fund which is trying to sell at from 1900psf for the standard units. similar to grange infinite, the 3 bedders are 2121 sq ft and 4 bedders are 2626 sq ft

**bargain hunter** · 19-09-14, 10:50

cityvista

in 2007, 3 bedders were sold from 2376psf to 2701psf while 4 bedders were sold from 2472psf to 2874psf.

in 2010, the fund bought at the following prices:

25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #20-01 9,192sq ft 1,078psf $9,909,358
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #20-02 9,160 1,118 10,245,268
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #02-04 2,142 1,767 3,784,332
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #03-04 2,142 1,777 3,807,220
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #08-03 2,809 1,785 5,013,463
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #04-04 2,142 1,788 3,830,782
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #09-04 2,788 1,788 4,984,291
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #02-01 2,121 1,790 3,795,788
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #04-03 2,142 1,793 4,708,906
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #10-04 2,788 1,795 5,005,566
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #05-04 2,142 1,799 3,854,344
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #03-01 2,121 1,802 3,820,981
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #11-04 2,788 1,803 5,027,871
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #09-01 2,626 1,807 4,745,555
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #06-04 2,142 1,810 3,877,906
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #12-04 2,788 1,811 5,050,174
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #04-01 2,121 1,814 3,846,174
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #13-04 2,788 1,819 5,072,479
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #10-01 2,626 1,821 4,782,318
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #07-04 2,142 1,821 3,901,468
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #13-03 2,809 1,822 5,118,435
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #09-02 2,626 1,824 4,789,663
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #10-02 2,626 1,832 4,810,670
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #11-01 2,626 1,835 4,819,083
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #15-04 2,788 1,840 5,129,348
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #12-01 2,626 1,849 4,855,846
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #13-02 2,626 1,856 4,873,370
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #13-01 2,626 1,863 4,892,611
25 OCT 2010 21 PECK HAY ROAD #17-01 2,626 1,980 5,200,000

happy bargaining.

**bargain hunter** · 19-09-14, 13:08

The Tate Residences

Sold 5 SEP 2014 21 CLAYMORE ROAD #33-01 2,239sq ft 2,725psf
Bought 30 APR 2008 2,730psf

**bargain hunter** · 19-09-14, 13:14

Duchess Residences

Sold 5 SEP 2014 106 DUCHESS AVENUE #03-12 1,485sq ft 1,818psf
Bought 3 AUG 2007 2,199psf

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