A few CCR transactions sold at a loss (reported in The Edge)

[stalingrad]

Capitaland started a promotion with D'leedon and Interlace. 10% down payment, remaining 90% or loan installments deferred for a year. Condition is unit for self stay, not for renting out.

Had a debate with HP65 and perhaps Teddy too about D'leedon in 2009 or 2010. I said this project was for suckers. In return, I was called the worst names you can imagined. Where is HP65 now when you need someone to laugh at? Probably enjoying his favorite brand of ice cream in the landed property he is so proud of.

[teddybear]

Stalingrad,

You are very funny!

Warren Buffett has proven that his investment makes him rich, so people may listen to him......

When you are at his level, we will listen to you, UNTIL THEN, ha ha ha, think you should listen to me instead since I am in better position than you are................

I also admit my mistakes (like Warren Buffett) -------- I regret not buying more CCR properties when their prices are at <2x that of OCR property prices (just like London in 197x when Zone 1 is at <2x that of Zone 4 property prices and now they can be as high as 10x) and when I can still borrow at 80% LTV and before TDSR and ABSD comes in............

It is clear thinking on the part of you average Singaporeans that makes real estate across the country equalized. People are not dumb. They go to a suburban mall, they see the same cold storages and bread talks as in Orchard, they murmur why the heck do I have to work so hard to buy a CCR condo? Leave CCR to the Chinese and Indos, who don't know better.

I have been saying this to Teddy for at least 10 years, and he has always chucked my advice outta window. I guess some people will never learn. Teddy, the secret to successful investing is to be humble, nimble and flexible. Even Warren Buffet admits that he makes mistakes.

[august]

Had a debate with HP65 and perhaps Teddy too about D'leedon in 2009 or 2010. I said this project was for suckers. In return, I was called the worst names you can imagined. Where is HP65 now when you need someone to laugh at? Probably enjoying his favorite brand of ice cream in the landed property he is so proud of.

D'leedon is not even launched in 2009 or 2010. So what were you debating about? Lol

[stalingrad]

D'leedon is not even launched in 2009 or 2010. So what were you debating about? Lol

What else? I said that D'leedon was for losers and the buyers were sure to lose money. HP65 began to hurl vulgarities in my direction, saying I was a worthless foreign talent. He lived in this area in a landed property, the holy grail for all Singaporeans. At least that is what he said.

[nydeidith]

and the prediction that ocr real estate prices will tank is also ridiculous...in fact at current price point it is very well supported by the middle class....if/when price go lower there are many ready to upgrade to private property for home stay...so it will not tank...why CCR property crashed?...it is because of hot money from outside...the foreigners who bought are rich and they have no allegiance to singapore...anytime there are better opportunities they will pull out...a few million dollars lose is nothing to them...buy ccr for investment is high-end game not accessible to most singaporeans...now ccr prices have become very attractive but the quantum is still far out of reach for wage earners....

[nydeidith]

The previous CEO said must be large units then considered humane mah.

Mostly in the 3mil category how to sell out easily?

3 million quantum...they can forget about selling...loads of good options in ccr even for fh...no reason for anyone to choose interlace...

[teddybear]

Lots of hot money has shifted to OCR private property prices, thus sustaining it at highest price level ever in Singapore's history despite the fact that CCR private property prices had crash, some by even 30% or more! OCR property prices not dropping now doesn't mean that it won't in future (just when the hot money will pull out again)............

OCR private property prices had crashed from about $1000 psf to <$500 psf before and it will do so again, just when and by how much........................................

OCR property prices likely to be harder hit when next recession comes (since it is at the highest price ever in Singapore's existence while CCR is now like >20% and some even 40% below historical peak)................

and the prediction that ocr real estate prices will tank is also ridiculous...in fact at current price point it is very well supported by the middle class....if/when price go lower there are many ready to upgrade to private property for home stay...so it will not tank...why CCR property crashed?...it is because of hot money from outside...the foreigners who bought are rich and they have no allegiance to singapore...anytime there are better opportunities they will pull out...a few million dollars lose is nothing to them...buy ccr for investment is high-end game not accessible to most singaporeans...now ccr prices have become very attractive but the quantum is still far out of reach for wage earners....

[nydeidith]

Lots of hot money has shifted to OCR private property prices, thus sustaining it at highest price level ever in Singapore's history despite the fact that CCR private property prices had crash, some by even 30% or more! OCR property prices not dropping now doesn't mean that it won't in future (just when the hot money will pull out again)............

OCR private property prices had crashed from about $1000 psf to <$500 psf before and it will do so again, just when and by how much........................................

OCR property prices likely to be harder hit when next recession comes (since it is at the highest price ever in Singapore's existence while CCR is now like >20% and some even 40% below historical peak)................

lol and that scenario would make your happy?
im sorry bro just dont see your logic and simplistic explanation...
when downturn recession comes im incline to believe all property prices will fall together...some worse than other due to various factors like location quality, etc but no drastic difference....
people who over exposed over leveraged beyond their means will naturally be burnt...majority will be okay because of recent measures to limit loan quantums...
why would it be especially bad for ocr properties supported, owned and aspired by majority singapore core...?
if ocr becomes below 500psf...you think ccr will survive and remain above 2000psf? on what basis and who is supporting the price? lol...foreigners?
the biggest landlord in singapore is the government...land sale and property related taxes are important source of revenue for the country...and majority of voting singaporeans stay in ocr...they gonna sit around and let property price slide?
just look at coe...they cant even bare to let it slide....

[teddybear]

lol? Ha ha ha!
I am talking about FACTS, and facts already tell us that at 2005/2006, OCR private property prices had crashed to about <$500 psf from the peak of about >$1000 psf in 1997...........

And all the reasons you mentioned about why OCR property prices will not fall by >50% could also similarly be used to justify why they should NOT fall in 1998 BUT which by now we know that OCR private property prices continue to fall from >$1000 psf (in 1997) to <$500 psf (till early 2006)......

And if you NOT HAPPY that OCR property prices fall to <$500 psf and you want to say CCR property price should also crash? Can! CCR private property price at that time also fell to about $1600+ psf!
Oh by the way, we are already seeing some CCR private properties (including some around Orchard, those large units) transacting at $1600+ psf!

Oh no oh no, CCR property price had CRASHED!
So by logical extension (as you mentioned that if OCR crash CCR should also crash and vice versa), OCR property price should CRASH soon too right?

lol and that scenario would make your happy?
im sorry bro just dont see your logic and simplistic explanation...
when downturn recession comes im incline to believe all property prices will fall together...some worse than other due to various factors like location quality, etc but no drastic difference....
people who over exposed over leveraged beyond their means will naturally be burnt...majority will be okay because of recent measures to limit loan quantums...
why would it be especially bad for ocr properties supported, owned and aspired by majority singapore core...?
if ocr becomes below 500psf...you think ccr will survive and remain above 2000psf? on what basis and who is supporting the price? lol...foreigners?
the biggest landlord in singapore is the government...land sale and property related taxes are important source of revenue for the country...and majority of voting singaporeans stay in ocr...they gonna sit around and let property price slide?
just look at coe...they cant even bare to let it slide....

[walkthetiger]

people who over exposed over leveraged beyond their means will naturally be burnt...majority will be okay because of recent measures to limit loan quantums...why would it be especially bad for ocr properties supported, owned and aspired by majority singapore core...?
....

Yes, majority Singaporean live in OCR, HDB to be exact, some in EC. Most owned one property, up or down don't affect them much, they are really save not matter what happen. See the current job market sentimental, still see huge increasing inspiration to own OCR PC?

Coming years are real test to OCR PC prices...Just too early to say OCR PC will never go further down.

[nydeidith]

Yes, majority Singaporean live in OCR, HDB to be exact, some in EC. Most owned one property, up or down don't affect them much, they are really save not matter what happen. See the current job market sentimental, still see huge increasing inspiration to own OCR PC?

Coming years are real test to OCR PC prices...Just too early to say OCR PC will never go further down.

of course will go down if sentiments no good and economy cannot perform...
it will not collapse like some imagine unless there is a major global recession..
if that happen property price across the board will fall...doesnt matter what class of property...

[Kelonguni]

The acid test is whether HDB will go down. If HDB does not go down, how does OCR pegged just above HDB go down? Sense, no sense?

Yes, majority Singaporean live in OCR, HDB to be exact, some in EC. Most owned one property, up or down don't affect them much, they are really save not matter what happen. See the current job market sentimental, still see huge increasing inspiration to own OCR PC?

Coming years are real test to OCR PC prices...Just too early to say OCR PC will never go further down.

[walkthetiger]

The acid test is whether HDB will go down. If HDB does not go down, how does OCR pegged just above HDB go down? Sense, no sense?

OCR PC above OCR EC, I can agree. Generally, all OCR PC has far exceeded OCR HDB. OCR HDBs are really affordable,can only happen in singapore.

[Kelonguni]

OCR PC above OCR EC, I can agree. Generally, all OCR PC has far exceeded OCR HDB. OCR HDBs are really affordable,can only happen in singapore.

There are more and more rules implemented recently for HDB deployment as assets. We can only expect to see more to equilibrate demand and fairness. It might get more and more restrictive and prohibitive.

[walkthetiger]

There are more and more rules implemented recently for HDB deployment as assets. We can only expect to see more to equilibrate demand and fairness. It might get more and more restrictive and prohibitive.

Spotted those hints...the real meaning of a house.

[Kelonguni]

OCR PC above OCR EC, I can agree. Generally, all OCR PC has far exceeded OCR HDB. OCR HDBs are really affordable,can only happen in singapore.

Some ECs that have reached 10 years, regarded now as PCs are still quite affordable. Maybe about 800K or so for 3BR.

[walkthetiger]

Some ECs that have reached 10 years, regarded now as PCs are still quite affordable. Maybe about 800K or so for 3BR.

When all these recent OCR EC turned PC years later, isn't it giving wonderful supply to all those OCR folks, spoilting them with choices.

[Kelonguni]

When all these recent OCR EC turned PC years later, isn't it giving wonderful supply to all those OCR folks, spoilting them with choices.

They have accompanying HDB supply that MOP to support.

I think the authorities must have the clear stats to build so many HDBs at some of these OCR estates but refuse to build ECs in mature estates.

No matter how many ECs there are, there will be 4 times as many HDBs that MOP in 5 years and probably twice that in 10 years.

So levels should be quite supported, at equilibrium now.

[teddybear]

I suppose the government has learnt the lesson that HDB flats should only be allowed for own-resident and not allowed for investment and speculation (since 2011 GE)?

If so, then HDB flats will have negligible upside going forwards, and people should not have fat hope of getting rich from buying BTO HDB flat.........

And if HDB flats' prices are stagnant, people should also have fat hope of using rising HDB flats' prices and hence fat profits from it to easily upgrade to private properties............
OR rather, OCR private property prices is probably at their peak now (since there is no push effect from rapidly rising HDB flats' prices to allow many people to easily upgrade to private properties).....................

They have accompanying HDB supply that MOP to support.

I think the authorities must have the clear stats to build so many HDBs at some of these OCR estates but refuse to build ECs in mature estates.

No matter how many ECs there are, there will be 4 times as many HDBs that MOP in 5 years and probably twice that in 10 years.

So levels should be quite supported, at equilibrium now.

[Kelonguni]

Housing is the first thing that anyone who wants to live in a place for long needs to buy. Have children, need even bigger place. Divorce, needs 2 place. Children grow up never marry, may need 1 more place.

Stagnancy is good for the time being. Stocks wise it is accumulation phase.

Don't foresee Govt clamping down on investment deployment of HDB as an asset immediately, at least not for the next 20 years while population increases (slowly).

I suppose the government has learnt the lesson that HDB flats should only be allowed for own-resident and not allowed for investment and speculation (since 2011 GE)?

If so, then HDB flats will have negligible upside going forwards, and people should not have fat hope of getting rich from buying BTO HDB flat.........

And if HDB flats' prices are stagnant, people should also have fat hope of using rising HDB flats' prices and hence fat profits from it to easily upgrade to private properties............
OR rather, OCR private property prices is probably at their peak now (since there is no push effect from rapidly rising HDB flats' prices to allow many people to easily upgrade to private properties).....................

[Amber Woods]

Don't foresee Govt clamping down on investment deployment of HDB as an asset immediately, at least not for the next 20 years while population increases (slowly).

This is not correct.

After GE 2011 and the Singapore's Conversation in 2012, government had indicated that HDB housing should be for basic housing which literally mean that the asset enhancement scheme started by the late LKY/GCT era came to an end. Government came up with lease back scheme and shorter lease scheme are seen as avenues for people to unlock their assets when growing old instead of profiting from sale and downgrading. The profits from downgrading is still not sufficient for most to retire comfortably and high chance of people spending their profits away or giving the profits to their children to buy property or get into business. The solution is to make HDB affordable and that people will not spend too much of their CPF saving on housing and hence not enough in cash in their CPF for retirement.

I thought HDB's approach was quite clear if one has followed what the government had said.

[Kelonguni]

Setting more and more rules for HDB deployment does not mean asset enhancement came to an end.

Come on, right now is marvellous compromise from Govt already. Surely you are aware what the acronym PAP stands for?

They tighten HDB mortgage so much, but relax car loans. Make sense to ya?

This is not correct.

After GE 2011 and the Singapore's Conversation in 2012, government had indicated that HDB housing should be for basic housing which literally mean that the asset enhancement scheme started by the late LKY/GCT era came to an end. Government came up with lease back scheme and shorter lease scheme are seen as avenues for people to unlock their assets when growing old instead of profiting from sale and downgrading. The profits from downgrading is still not sufficient for most to retire comfortably and high chance of people spending their profits away or giving the profits to their children to buy property or get into business. The solution is to make HDB affordable and that people will not spend too much of their CPF saving on housing and hence not enough in cash in their CPF for retirement.

I thought HDB's approach was quite clear if one has followed what the government had said.

[Amber Woods]

Setting more and more rules for HDB deployment does not mean asset enhancement came to an end.

Come on, right now is marvellous compromise from Govt already. Surely you are aware what the acronym PAP stands for?

They tighten HDB mortgage so much, but relax car loans. Make sense to ya?

Teddy is right that the days of buying new BTO flat and hoping to profit from it is over. However, many people so use to asset enhancement scheme over the last 30 years find it hard to accept and that is understandable.

The main reason for MAS relaxed car rule was to pop up consumer index and avoid the index going into deflation. Car sale plays a significant portion of our consumer index and inflation. MAS did not say it because it action was not consistent with car-lite concept.

[nydeidith]

yes I think now and even going forward...your BTO will not make you much money....even BTO at mature estate is highly priced so upside also very limited...we hear news of people selling their HDB at sky high price...but they are for HDB bought quite some time back… and these cases are also limited to specific areas/projects...like bishan pinnacle....now there is not much to make from selling your BTO after MOP...just a bit maybe and definitely not enough to help you upgrade to a different class of asset…

so if someone tell HDB makes you money…they are talking about last time…if they buy a new HDB now…they got to know upside is limited…

[bargain hunter]

PATERSON RESIDENCE PATERSON ROAD Condominium 09 CCR Freehold Resale 1 $2,910,000 - 1,496sq ft Strata 11 to 15 1,945psf Jun-16

the 4 bedder which i had highlighted earlier. its probably for real teddy.

[bargain hunter]

RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 09 CCR Freehold Resale 1 $2,605,000 - 1,550sq ft Strata 06 to 10 1,681psf Jun-16

post 2013 cooling measures new low for this project.

[Kelonguni]

Several gross misunderstandings...

New BTO flat maybe will not see that kind of increase in the past but that is also because no triggering event. But the low price way below existing rental rates for HDB is already an asset enhancement.

Secondly, car lite has nothing to do with financing. The COE quota (car numbers) determines car lightness, financing only determines price people end up paying. You do not get more or less cars because COE goes up or down.

Teddy is right that the days of buying new BTO flat and hoping to profit from it is over. However, many people so use to asset enhancement scheme over the last 30 years find it hard to accept and that is understandable.

The main reason for MAS relaxed car rule was to pop up consumer index and avoid the index going into deflation. Car sale plays a significant portion of our consumer index and inflation. MAS did not say it because it action was not consistent with car-lite concept.

[stalingrad]

RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 09 CCR Freehold Resale 1 $2,605,000 - 1,550sq ft Strata 06 to 10 1,681psf Jun-16

post 2013 cooling measures new low for this project.

Down at most 20%. It will go lower.

[teddybear]

If Rivergate can go down to $1300 psf, I have no doubt we will definitely see Crapbella at $600 psf again..................

Down at most 20%. It will go lower.

[teddybear]

Think you have got it wrong again though........

New BTOs flat will never fetch the kind of increase like in the past, other than because there is re-focus for people to treat HDB flats as a consumption for own-stay and not investment, and also because of the following:

1) New BTO flats are cheap by absolute quantum, but they are actually more expensive by $PSF because the size has shrunk tremendously, and new 5-room HDB flats are now mostly 1100 sqft (vs >1300 sqft for old HDB flats).

2) New HDB flats are more bare-bone than old HDB flats (when they come new).

3) If the people are unable and have no mean to buy a 2nd property to live in (because their HDB flats didn't allow them to profit and easily upgrade to private properties), what rental are you talking about?
Face it, most HDB owners will not get rental from their HDB flats!

Several gross misunderstandings...

New BTO flat maybe will not see that kind of increase in the past but that is also because no triggering event. But the low price way below existing rental rates for HDB is already an asset enhancement.

Secondly, car lite has nothing to do with financing. The COE quota (car numbers) determines car lightness, financing only determines price people end up paying. You do not get more or less cars because COE goes up or down.