http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/arch...sites-20120927
Published September 27, 2012
Cautious bidding likely for Sengkang, Pasir Ris EC sites
By Mindy Tan
[SINGAPORE] The executive condominium (EC) market may be approaching saturation point, even as the government puts up two more 99-year leasehold EC sites at Sengkang EastWay/Fernvale Link, and Pasir Ris Drive 3/Pasir Ris Rise for sale.
The first site at Sengkang West Way/Fernvale Link (Parcel B) sits on a 151,779.6 sq ft plot, and has a maximum gross floor area (GFA) of about 455,338.8 sq ft. It is expected to yield 420 homes.
The second site at Pasir Ris Drive 3/Pasir Ris Rise has a site area of about 297,729.5 sq ft, and a maximum GFA of 625,231.9 sq ft. It is envisaged to yield about 590 homes.
Lee Sze Teck, senior manager, training, research and consultancy, at DWG, expects developers to be cautious in their bidding.
He said: "With the exception of Heron Bay, which attracted overwhelming response, other EC projects like One Canberra and Watercolours are around 40 per cent sold."
A possible reason could be that while HDB has raised the income ceiling and allocation for second-timers, it has also increased the minimum occupation period (MOP) for HDB flats which limits the number of HDB upgraders. First-timers, however, have a plethora of options like BTO and DBSS which might divert demand.
The EC site in Pasir Ris can expect strong competition from neighbouring condominium developments, such as Sea Esta, Ripple Bay, Watercolours and Seastrand, according to Png Poh Soon, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore.
"As at August 2012, the four projects still have about 385 unsold units in total. In addition, the EC market is becoming more competitive as the government injects more EC land supply into the market. Competition also comes from new launches in Punggol and Sengkang areas, which are attracting buying interest for the improved amenities and facilities," he added.
Mr Png expects between five and seven bidders for the site in Pasir Ris, with a top bid of $295-$305 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr).
The site at Sengkang could draw between five and seven bidders, with an expected winning bid of $295-$310 psf ppr. This, Mr Png says, is because Sengkang can expect more activity over the next one to two years on completion of the nearby HDB estates, H20 Residences and other facilities, including the Aerospace Park and The Seletar Mall at Fernvale LRT Station.
DWG's Mr Lee expects the plot in Sengkang to attract four to eight bidders and a top bid of $270-$320 psf ppr, while the site at Pasir Ris should attract a top bid of $250-$300 psf ppr.
However, Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA Realty Network, reckons that the interest developers have shown for EC sites in the first half of the year suggests that they believe the EC market is still robust.
"Interest in EC sites has been keen since the income ceiling for ECs was raised in August last year, replicating developers' confidence of continual demand from a larger group of eligible buyers," he said.
Mr Lim cited the examples of an EC site next to the Tampines Trilliant project, which was awarded to Singxpress Property Development, Creative Investments and Kay Lim Realty for $233.5 million ($373.40 psf ppr), and the site at Woodlands Ave 5, which was awarded to Hao Yuan Investment for $247 million ($317.65 psf ppr) in May this year.
Of the two sites, Mr Lim expects the Pasir Ris site to garner more interest, given its "seaside town appeal".
That the site is situated in a growing cluster of private condominiums and ECs in Pasir Ris may appeal to home buyers, noted Nicholas Mak, executive director, research and consultancy, at SLP International. He expects the top bid for the site in Pasir Ris to be between $295 and $336 psf ppr and the site at Sengkang to fetch between $290 and $330 psf ppr.
In addition to the two EC sites, a 99-year leasehold site at Alexandra View (Parcel B), has been made available on the Reserve List system. The 69,981.5 sq ft site has a maximum GFA of 342,916.3 sq ft. It is expected to yield some 375 homes.
All told, the three sites are expected to yield about 1,385 units.
Knight Frank's Mr Png expects the site to attract between four to six bidders, with the winning bid coming in at $900-$930 psf ppr.
"The Alexandra/Redhill area is viewed as one of the prime locations with its close proximity to central downtown. Notwithstanding that, there has been an increase in land supply in the vicinity with three land sites sold over the past 10 months. We foresee land bids for this site to be competitive as developers seek well-located sites in the central region," he said.
Said DWG's Mr Lee: "Ascentia Sky is almost fully sold as at August 2012. The optimism reflected in the bids for Prince Charles Crescent could result in Parcel A being triggered first. If Parcel B is triggered, the trigger price could be between $750 and $800 psf ppr or $257 to $274 million."
Tender for the EC sites at Sengkang and Pasir Ris will close at 12 noon on Nov 8 and Nov 22, respectively.