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Thread: BOND THREAD

  1. #721
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    Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks. He finds U.S. Stocks and Bonds Equally Unattractive, Likes International.

    “I think next year will be a dangerous year. It is the first year of a presidential cycle. I have always paid close attention to it as a reliable indicator.

    It is the time when the Fed and the U.S. government typically try to get things more in order.” Grantham continues:

    “History is quite clear. There has been, on average, no money made in year one and two after a Presidential election going back to 1932, after you adjust for inflation.

    All the money is made in year three with an adequate return in year four. In general they stimulate in year 3 to create a wealth effect in year four and it works and everyone is happy.

    You can’t do that every year. At some point you have to address a budget that is way out of balance”

    Grantham believes that investors’ almost universal belief that rates will remain low is another disturbing phenomenon. In other words now that everyone is convinced interest rates will remain low, they probably won’t.




    FYI,Year of snake is never a good year for stock.

    rdgs,
    Vic





  2. #722
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    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
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    Interesting, but I never believe in whatever snake year, bull year bad for something or good for something etc......

    In my view, 2013 will turn out to be the best year for US equities!

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks. He finds U.S. Stocks and Bonds Equally Unattractive, Likes International.

    “I think next year will be a dangerous year. It is the first year of a presidential cycle. I have always paid close attention to it as a reliable indicator.

    It is the time when the Fed and the U.S. government typically try to get things more in order.” Grantham continues:

    “History is quite clear. There has been, on average, no money made in year one and two after a Presidential election going back to 1932, after you adjust for inflation.

    All the money is made in year three with an adequate return in year four. In general they stimulate in year 3 to create a wealth effect in year four and it works and everyone is happy.

    You can’t do that every year. At some point you have to address a budget that is way out of balance”

    Grantham believes that investors’ almost universal belief that rates will remain low is another disturbing phenomenon. In other words now that everyone is convinced interest rates will remain low, they probably won’t.




    FYI,Year of snake is never a good year for stock.

    rdgs,
    Vic





  3. #723
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    Today's issuance:

    Issuer:
    21Vianet Group, Inc.
    Issuer Rating:
    Unrated Issue
    Rating:
    Unrated
    Status:
    Unsubordinated and Unsecured Notes
    Format:
    Regulation S Registered
    Size:
    CNH Benchmark
    Tenor:
    3yr
    Details:
    CNH 1mio x 1mio
    Risk Rating:
    P5 (1 to 5, 5 being the highest)
    Initial Price Guidance:
    8.25% area
    UOP:
    Data center expansion and general corporate purposes
    Covenants:
    Limitation on additional indebtedness and limitation on dividends (pls refer to OC for details)
    Sole Global Coordinator:
    Barclays
    Joint Bookrunners:
    Barclays, CITIC Securities International, DBS Bank Ltd., and Wing Lung Bank Limited
    Co-Managers:
    China CITIC Bank Int’l Ltd. and SinoPac Securities ( Asia )

  4. #724
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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Interesting, but I never believe in whatever snake year, bull year bad for something or good for something etc......

    In my view, 2013 will turn out to be the best year for US equities!

    Stock/share to most of the retailers investors will more likely to lose money in long run due to the emotional trading behaviour. Even some experience guys who know chart reading will also be a victim of the own emotional behaviour. our human brain is tune to mostly good things. Not pain.


    Bonds can be a alternative income. Those who bought Noble USD perp IPO bond at par (100) in 2010 is getting 8.5%/yr. Price now is around 101. But for those for bought noble share US$2.02 in late 2010. They are losing alot of money as price now is US$1.2. It is the same for hyflux/Genting etc etc.

    A few smart investors with strong emotional trading behaviour will only buy dividend stock like local bank , Reit , Telcom etc. They really outperform bond even with leveraging on bond. Sad to say that they are the minority.


    as for property, depsite our SG Gov has given a very early warning on the property investment. Many ignorant marginal buyers continue to buy property because their neighbours, friends, colleagues , relatives are all investing. Many marginal buyers join in the herd to buy a 2nd property in 2011/2012. They will be struggling for the next 5 to 10 yrs to maintain their 2nd property. Less money for kids education , less money to buy insurance , less money for family holiday, facing uncertian job securities , a raisng future mortgage rate, more conflict within husband/wife on money matters etc etc.


    rdgs,
    Vic

  5. #725
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    Any comments, anyone? I am quite keen, but my banker cautioned against it.

    Company last quarter profits a bit below analyst expectations, but in net cash position.

    Quote Originally Posted by starrynight
    Today's issuance:

    Issuer:
    21Vianet Group, Inc.
    Issuer Rating:
    Unrated Issue
    Rating:
    Unrated
    Status:
    Unsubordinated and Unsecured Notes
    Format:
    Regulation S Registered
    Size:
    CNH Benchmark
    Tenor:
    3yr
    Details:
    CNH 1mio x 1mio
    Risk Rating:
    P5 (1 to 5, 5 being the highest)
    Initial Price Guidance:
    8.25% area
    UOP:
    Data center expansion and general corporate purposes
    Covenants:
    Limitation on additional indebtedness and limitation on dividends (pls refer to OC for details)
    Sole Global Coordinator:
    Barclays
    Joint Bookrunners:
    Barclays, CITIC Securities International, DBS Bank Ltd., and Wing Lung Bank Limited
    Co-Managers:
    China CITIC Bank Int’l Ltd. and SinoPac Securities ( Asia )

  6. #726
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Stock/share to most of the retailers investors will more likely to lose money in long run due to the emotional trading behaviour. Even some experience guys who know chart reading will also be a victim of the own emotional behaviour. our human brain is tune to mostly good things. Not pain.


    Bonds can be a alternative income. Those who bought Noble USD perp IPO bond at par (100) in 2010 is getting 8.5%/yr. Price now is around 101. But for those for bought noble share US$2.02 in late 2010. They are losing alot of money as price now is US$1.2. It is the same for hyflux/Genting etc etc.

    A few smart investors with strong emotional trading behaviour will only buy dividend stock like local bank , Reit , Telcom etc. They really outperform bond even with leveraging on bond. Sad to say that they are the minority.


    as for property, depsite our SG Gov has given a very early warning on the property investment. Many ignorant marginal buyers continue to buy property because their neighbours, friends, colleagues , relatives are all investing. Many marginal buyers join in the herd to buy a 2nd property in 2011/2012. They will be struggling for the next 5 to 10 yrs to maintain their 2nd property. Less money for kids education , less money to buy insurance , less money for family holiday, facing uncertian job securities , a raisng future mortgage rate, more conflict within husband/wife on money matters etc etc.


    rdgs,
    Vic
    What happen after 5 to 10 years? The property owners will still struggling or they laugh their way to the bank?

  7. #727
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    Quote Originally Posted by starrynight
    Any comments, anyone? I am quite keen, but my banker cautioned against it.

    Company last quarter profits a bit below analyst expectations, but in net cash position.
    Technology company. Better dont .

    Property company. Maybe, as hundred of millions Chinese are waiting long Q to buy their own house. Just like S'porean.

    rdgs,
    Vic

  8. #728
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    Goddit! Thanks,

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Technology company. Better dont .

    Property company. Maybe, as hundred of millions Chinese are waiting long Q to buy their own house. Just like S'porean.

    rdgs,
    Vic

  9. #729
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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    What happen after 5 to 10 years? The property owners will still struggling or they laugh their way to the bank?

    Only Marginal buyers who depend more of their salary to sustain the payment of the 2nd property will be at risk.

    Those cash rich who has the ablitiy to hold long term (maybe > 10 yrs) will likely be the winner. But it is no guarantee as it has to depend on their stability of the future government.

    rdgs,
    Vic

  10. #730
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Only Marginal buyers who depend more of their salary to sustain the payment of the 2nd property will be at risk.

    Those cash rich who has the ablitiy to hold long term (maybe > 10 yrs) will likely be the winner. But it is no guarantee as it has to depend on their stability of the future government.

    rdgs,
    Vic
    Thanks Vic

  11. #731
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    I think the gov is engineering a rental yield increase in the event of interest rate hike. If so, marginal buyers are quite insulated from the risk. And you are quite right to assume a need for stable gov for this to happen. An opposition winning the next election may succumbed to the popular voices and cut off the supply of new migrants.

  12. #732
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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    I think the gov is engineering a rental yield increase in the event of interest rate hike. If so, marginal buyers are quite insulated from the risk. And you are quite right to assume a need for stable gov for this to happen. An opposition winning the next election may succumbed to the popular voices and cut off the supply of new migrants.

    When LKY is around. We know Goh chok tong will be the next PM years ahead. After Goh chok tong, we also know Lee Hsien Long will be the next PM years ahead. Now who is our next firm PM, I guess nobody know. Like what LKY said many years ago. Are we are ready for a non-Chinese PM ? I hope do we are ready.


    rdgs,
    Vic

  13. #733
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    Re govt bonds:

    Sovereign Bonds Climb in Asia as Cyprus Turmoil Spurs Haven Bids

    By Masaki Kondo - Mar 17, 2013
    Government bonds in Asia advanced as an unprecedented levy on bank deposits in Cyprus threatens to reignite the euro region’s debt crisis, boosting demand for haven assets.
    Treasury 10-year yields headed for their biggest drop in three weeks after euro-area finance ministers agreed to tax bank deposits in Cyprus to finance part of a 10 billion-euro ($13 billion) bailout for the nation. Moody’s Investors Service said today the levy is negative for bank depositors across Europe, while Bill Gross at Pacific Investment Management Co. said it moves “risk-on” trades to the back seat.
    “The news on Cyprus is a cause for risk-off sentiment and is spurring buying of Treasuries amid flight to quality,” said Hiromasa Nakamura, a senior investor at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, which manages the equivalent of $34.5 billion. “The incident in Cyprus is leading to concern that depositors in other countries will try to withdraw their savings before any levy is imposed, which may cause the financial system to lose its stability.”
    The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury debt slid eight basis points to 1.91 percent as of 12:47 p.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. It touched 1.9 percent, the lowest since March 6, and was set for its biggest one-day decline since Feb. 25. The price of the 2 percent security due February 2023 added 23/32, or $7.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 26/32.
    Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield fell three basis points to 0.59 percent, approaching the almost decade low of 0.585 percent set on March 5. Yields on similar-maturity debt in Australia declined 15 basis points to 3.48 percent, while those in Singapore slid six basis points to 1.52 percent.
    Market Disruptions

    Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades appealed to lawmakers to ratify the one-off deposit levy today. Scenes of Cypriots lining up at cash machines raised the specter of capital flight elsewhere and threatened to disrupt a market calm since the European Central Bank’s pledge in September to backstop troubled nations’ debt.
    “The decision to impose losses on depositors signals euro area policymakers’ willingness to risk triggering wider financial market disruptions in pursuit of other policy goals,” Bart Oosterveld and Alastair Wilson, analysts at Moody’s, wrote in the bi-weekly Credit Outlook report.
    Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, commented on Cyprus on Twitter. He also recommends selling the euro.
    The Federal Reserve is scheduled to buy as much as $1.75 billion of U.S. bonds today maturing in February 2036 and February 2043 as part of its efforts to stimulate the economy through lower borrowing costs.
    Bond Returns

    Treasuries have lost 0.86 percent since the end of December, poised for the biggest quarterly decline since the period ended March 2012, an index compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch shows. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. shares, which has approached a record high last week, returned 10 percent since Dec. 31, including reinvested dividends.
    U.S. bonds have underperformed stocks amid rising optimism that the recovery in the world’s largest economy is gaining traction. Data showed this month that the jobless rate dropped to the lowest since December 2008 and industrial production increased in February by the most in three months.
    “The U.S. economy continues recovering gradually,” said Makoto Suzuki, a senior bond strategist in Tokyo at Okasan Securities Co. “I don’t see much downside for Treasury yields.”
    To contact the reporter on this story: Masaki Kondo in Singapore at [email protected]
    To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at [email protected]

  14. #734
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    Today's issuance:

    ISSUER:
    BOC Aviation Pte. Ltd.
    ISSUER RATINGS:
    A- stable / BBB stable (Fitch/S&P)
    EXPECTED ISSUE RATING:
    BBB- (S&P)
    FORMAT:
    S274 & S275 and Reg S Bearer
    STATUS:
    Fixed Rate, Senior Unsecured
    ISSUE SIZE:
    TBD
    TENOR:
    2 Years
    RISK RATING:
    P3 (1 to 5, 5 being the highest)
    COUPON:
    2.00% p.a., semi-annual, actual/365 (fixed)
    ISSUE PRICE:
    100
    ISSUE DATE:
    26-Mar-13
    MATURITY DATE:
    26-Mar-15
    DENOMINATION:
    SGD250,000
    CLEARING:
    CDP
    LISTING:
    SGX
    GOVERNING LAW:
    English Law
    DOCUMENTATION:
    Off Issuer's US$2 billion EMTN Programme (OC)
    SELLING RESTRICTIONS:
    As per OC, primarily S274 & S275 of Singapore SFA SOLE LEAD MANAGER
    BOOKRUNNER:
    UOB

  15. #735
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    Moody’s Sees Defaults as PBOC Warns on Local Risks

    By Kyoungwha Kim and David Yong - Mar 18, 2013
    Moody’s Investor Services said China’s local-government financing vehicles face greater risk of default, as regulators warn 20 percent of their loans are risky.


    A rally in LGFV bonds may reverse, particularly should delinquencies emerge, Christine Kuo, a Moody’s analyst, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions on March 8. The average yield may rise to 7 percent by June from 6 percent now, according to Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co., the first brokerage incorporated in China and ranked the nation’s most influential research provider by New Fortune magazine in 2010.


    “I see increased risk of LGFV defaults because the financial profiles of many remain weak and heavy refinancing is needed,” Hong Kong-based Kuo said. “Regulators have asked banks to control their LGFV exposures. Some of the projects could default unless other sources of funds are found.”


    People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in a March 13 press briefing that about one-fifth of loans to the financing arms of local governments are risky. Net debt issuance by these entities surged 179 percent in 2012 to 1.132 trillion yuan ($182 billion), accounting for 50 percent of corporate bond sales, according to Bank of America Corp. data.
    The China Banking Regulatory Commission warned lenders to exercise caution and limit their holdings of bonds sold by local governments’ financing arms, the 21st Century Business Herald said on March 13. Banks aren’t allowed to increase outstanding loans to LGFVs above the level as of Dec. 31, 2011, the report said. Phone calls made by Bloomberg News to the regulator’s press office went unanswered.
    Loan Curbs

    The yield on Jilin Construction Holding Co.’s 7.1 percent notes due March 2018 was 6.05 percent today, according to Shanghai Exchange, after touching a record low of 6.04 percent on March 15. The yield on Liaoyang City Assets Operation & Management Co.’s November 2019 bonds rose two basis points to 6.78 percent. Companies pay an average 2.6 percent for debt globally, according to a Bank of America index.


    The financing units of local governments owe between 9.1 trillion yuan and 14.5 trillion yuan, or 18 to 30 percent of China’s gross domestic product, according to a BNP Paribas SA report published in January. Tighter curbs on bank loans prompted the units to scramble for funds in 2012, driving a 50 percent jump in net corporate bond sales and a 404 percent surge in trust financing, according to Bank of America.


    Aggregate financing, which includes non-bank lending, climbed 914 billion yuan to a record 2.54 trillion yuan in January, official data show. China’s non-financial credit has increased by nearly 60 percent of GDP in the past five years, outstripping the rise in the U.S.’s in the five years preceding the onset of its banking crisis in 2008, BNP Paribas said.
    ‘Financial Risks’

    The central government “is concerned about financial risks and will take action to contain risks in 2013,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. “We believe policy will have to be tightened eventually, but the timing and pace of tightening remain uncertain. We continue to focus on the size of total social financing as the best indicator of potential policy change.”


    CEBM Group, a Shanghai-based investment research firm, estimated last month that about 4 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yuan of credit -- including 2 trillion of bank loans, 2 trillion of trust loans and 180 billion yuan of LGFV bonds -- is set to mature this year.


    The bond market has yet to show signs of concern. Most LGFV notes are rated AA and above, according to Bank of America, and the yield premium on one-year debt of that grade over AAA debt shrank by 71 basis points to 50 basis points in the year through March 15, Chinabond data show. A Feb. 22 gap of 45 basis points was the least since September 2010.
    Notes ‘Overpriced’

    “The outperformance last year is unlikely to be repeated in 2013,” said Yu Wenlong, an analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo. “LGFV notes are now overpriced. The tightening by regulators on shadow banking will mark a turning point for the market. Authorities face tough challenges as they need to meet local governments’ funding needs, while preventing defaults.”
    The biggest threats to China’s financial stability are shadow banking and loans to LGFVs, Bank of China Ltd. Chairman Xiao Gang wrote in a commentary in the China Daily on Feb. 19. China should pay special attention to such risks, the Economic Information Daily reported on Jan. 22, citing Huang Shuhe, vice chairman of State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.
    Hainan, Ningxia

    The provincial debt levels in some second and third-tier cities, particularly those in western China such as Hainan and Ningxia, have increased with their debt-to-GDP ratios already exceeding 40 percent in 2010, CEBM said in a Feb. 21 report. More than 30 percent of LGFVs have insufficient operating cash flow to cover debt payments, the report said, citing CBRC estimates.


    “This suggests that some local governments could potentially default,” CEBM analysts including Steve Chen wrote. “An actual default would reverberate throughout China’s commercial banking system and have a systemic impact on China’s financial system.”


    China is encountering “some natural frictions” as its capital markets develop, according to Wee-Ming Ting, head of Asian Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management, which oversees $29 billion of emerging-market debt. Pictet’s holdings include securities from China, although not LGFV notes, he said.


    “Increasing debt in China is an issue to be addressed but it’s not going to cause a major problem,” said Ting, who is based in Singapore. “China is in a transition period as it shifts away from a reliance on bank loans to the bond market.”
    Default Swaps

    The cost of insuring China’s sovereign notes using five- year credit-default swaps fell five basis points this year to 62 in New York, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by McGraw-Hill Cos. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent if a government fails to adhere to debt agreements.


    The yuan weakened 0.03 percent to 6.2155 per dollar as of 12:53 p.m. in Shanghai today, according to China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The government’s 10-year bonds yielded 3.59 percent on March 15.


    CEBM Group estimated total social financing will rise 15 percent this year to 17.5 trillion yuan, providing ample liquidity to companies and local governments. Loans to Tianjin’s LGFVs are expected to post “stable” growth this year, after 30 billion yuan was extended last year, Lin Tiegang, head of the the PBOC’s Tianjin branch said this month.


    “The government will definitely continue to allow LGFV bond sales, but may restrict some high-risk or low-level local governments from selling bonds,” said Ethan Mou, a fixed-income strategist at Bank of America in Hong Kong. The yield spreads of LGFV bonds could widen in 2013, due to supply or a credit event associated with trusts, Mou said, adding that a “big sell-off” could be a good opportunity for buy-and-hold investors.


    To contact the reporters on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at [email protected] David Yong in Singapore at [email protected];


    To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Regan at [email protected]

  16. #736
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    First China corp bond default. Solar was always sucky anyway...

  17. #737
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    First of 4 bonds launched today:

    Issuer:
    Daimler AG
    Rating:
    A3/A-/A- (Pos/Stable/Stable)
    Tenure:
    4 Years
    Issue Size:
    NZD 100,000,000+
    Guidance:
    NZD M/S + [85]bps (NZD 4Y M/S ~ 3.253)
    Coupon:
    [4.125]% Ann Act/Act
    Yield:
    [4.15 - 4.20]% ann. area
    Settlement Date:
    03 April 2013
    Maturity Date:
    03 April 2017
    Denom:
    NZD 50k x 2k
    Bookrunner:
    HSBC/TD Securities (pot)
    Timing:
    Books close 12:45pm Wednesday, London
    Product Risk Rating:
    P2

  18. #738
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    2nd of today:

    ISSUER:
    ASL Marine Holdings Ltd
    RATING:
    Unrated
    FORMAT:
    Reg S, S274 & 275 of Singapore SFA
    STATUS:
    Senior, unsecured
    ISSUE SIZE:
    TBD
    TENOR:
    4 Years
    RISK RATING:
    P4 (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)
    COUPON:
    4.75% Semi-annual, actual/365 (fixed)
    ISSUE PRICE:
    100
    ISSUE DATE:
    MTN Programme/Singapore Law/CDP
    DENOMINATION:
    SGD250,000
    LISTING:
    Not listed
    BOOKRUNNER:
    DBS
    TIMING:
    This week's business, as early as today

  19. #739
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    60 years! I won't even live that long

    ISSUER:
    Sompo Japan Insurance Inc.
    EXPECTED SECURITY RATINGS:
    A3/A-
    FORMAT:
    144A / Reg S
    TYPE:
    Subordinated step-up fixed to floating rate notes
    STRUCTURE:
    60 Yrs NC 10
    OPTIONAL DEFERRAL:
    Cumulative, subject to dividend pusher
    MANDATORY DEFERRAL:
    Cumulative, in the event of a capital deficiency event occurrence
    COMPULSORY INTEREST PAYMENT:
    All interest accrued shall become due and payable on a compulsory interest payment date (Dividend Pusher)
    SIZE:
    US$ Benchmark
    RISK RATING:
    P3- Sophisticated (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)
    INITIAL GUIDANCE:
    5.75% area
    COUPON:
    X% (S/A) to March 2023, FRN thereafter at 3m$ LIBOR + initial LIBOR margin + 100bps
    LISTING:
    Singapore
    DEMONS:
    $200k x $1k
    SETTLEMENT:
    TBD
    SELLING RESTRICTIONS:
    US (144A / Reg S), EEA (sales to QIs only), Japan , UK , Hong Kong , Singapore
    BOOKRUNNERS:
    Nomura / JPM / Mizuho / MS
    STRUCTURING COORDINATORS:
    Nomura / JPM
    TIMING:
    as early as today NY time
    NETROADSHOW:
    http://www.netroadshow.com
    Password:
    jump2013 (not case sensitive)
    ADDITIONAL CALLS:
    Withholding Tax (par), Regulatory (make whole), Tax (make whole), Rating Agency (make whole)

  20. #740
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    Commentary:

    Should be a small issue (<100 mio).
    Small company (mkt cap SGD 293 mio which is smaller than Swiber) and very much family owned which is why it is does not prefer to dilute equity.
    ASL Marine Holdings Ltd. is a dynamic offshore and marine company listed on SGX Mainboard since 2003. ASL Marine is principally engaged in shipbuilding, shiprepair and conversion, shipchartering and other marine related services, catering to customers from Asia Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East and Europe and Australia.
    - Comps:
    ASLSP 4.5 2014
    SGD 50 mio issued in 2011 at 4.5% 3Y.
    Current price 100.50/101.00 (3.96/3.43%)

    Family owned is good because major stakeholders would be perceived to do the right thing.
    Pet Peeves
    - lien-ed assets
    - cyclical market risks such as the cancelled contracts eg. Keppel's recent headlines
    - illiquidity which is a major problem for Swiber bondholders now

    I think the best comparable would be Nam Cheong NCL 6% 11/2015 which is trading at 101.00/101.50 (5.581/5.375%) given that ship building is their mainstay.
    Nam Cheong is less leveraged and a bigger operation (mkt cap 536 mio, although they are in the O&G space.
    Swiber would make everything else look bad, to be honest. Just take a look at this.

    Quote Originally Posted by starrynight
    2nd of today:

    ISSUER:
    ASL Marine Holdings Ltd
    RATING:
    Unrated
    FORMAT:
    Reg S, S274 & 275 of Singapore SFA
    STATUS:
    Senior, unsecured
    ISSUE SIZE:
    TBD
    TENOR:
    4 Years
    RISK RATING:
    P4 (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)
    COUPON:
    4.75% Semi-annual, actual/365 (fixed)
    ISSUE PRICE:
    100
    ISSUE DATE:
    MTN Programme/Singapore Law/CDP
    DENOMINATION:
    SGD250,000
    LISTING:
    Not listed
    BOOKRUNNER:
    DBS
    TIMING:
    This week's business, as early as today

  21. #741
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    This is what happens upon a default by a China company:

    Biggest Solar Collapse in China Imperils $1.28 Billion: Energy


    By Ehren Goossens and Justin Doom - Mar 20, 2013
    Investors stand to lose most of the $1.28 billion they put into Suntech Power Holdings Co. (STP) after the solar manufacturer said it wouldn’t resist a bankruptcy petition filed in China.


    The company, based in Wuxi, outside Shanghai, had more than $2 billion in debt and defaulted on $541 million in bonds due on March 15, prompting eight Chinese banks to ask a local court to push Suntech’s main unit into insolvency.


    “There’s a host of companies that have gone to Wall Street investors and gotten billions of dollars, and these investors are ultimately going to be on the hook and get nothing out of it,” Angelo Zino, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC in New York, said in an interview yesterday.
    Mount Kellett Capital Management LP, Driehaus Capital Management LLC and Pioneer Investment Management Inc. were the largest bondholders, with about 23 percent of the debt, according to December public filings compiled by Bloomberg.


    The largest outside owners of Suntech’s American depositary receipts are Renaissance Technologies Corp., Invesco Ltd. and Shah Capital Management. None of the bondholders or shareholders were available for comment.


    Suntech’s collapse follows bankruptcies in Germany of manufacturers including Q-Cells SE, previously the biggest solar manufacturer. Sharp Corp. of Japan, which led solar cell-making until 2006, has been scaling back operations overseas. In 2011, Solyndra LLC collapsed despite $535 million of support from the U.S. Energy Department.



    Forbearance Deal



    Suntech said last week that almost two-thirds of bondholders agreed to defer their rights for two months to give the company time to restructure its debt.


    It’s unclear how the Chinese filing will affect U.S. creditors, said James Millar, a partner at the law firm Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale & Dorr LLP in New York, who represents bondholders who own more than 1 percent of the debt.


    “I can’t speak so much to the Chinese process,” he said in an interview. “Does a bondholder of a holding company have standing in a Chinese operating unit’s bankruptcy? I think the right answer is that the bondholders should have a seat at that table.”


    Investors may lose everything, said Aaron Chew, an analyst with Maxim Group LLC in New York.



    ‘Nasty Fight’



    “This is about the Western bondholders versus the Chinese banks fighting for the assets, and there’s not enough to go around,” he said. “It’s going to be a nasty fight. I think this becomes a legal issue. One of the last companies I’d like to pick a fight with is Bank of China over an asset in China.”


    Suntech raised $742.6 million in two stock offerings in New York, in 2005 and 2009. Combined with the $541 million principal on the convertible bonds that matured March 15, it’s received $1.28 billion.


    The ADRs, each worth one ordinary share, closed at 59 cents March 19, before the bankruptcy was announced and trading halted. That’s a decline of more than 99 percent from the high of $88.35 in December 2007.


    “You can forget about the equity shareholders,” said Zino of Standard & Poor’s. “I don’t think there’s any way they’re getting anything out of this.”
    China has supported solar companies through credit lines from local government or state-backed agencies, prompting panel makers to expand factories. Suntech more than quadrupled its annual production capacity to 2,400 megawatts in 2011 from 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That made it the biggest solar manufacturer at the time.



    Global Glut



    The U.S. and European governments cut back on renewable- energy subsidies, slowing demand for solar panels and creating a global oversupply that drove down prices 20 percent last year.


    Suntech hasn’t reported a profit since the first quarter of 2011.
    The company hired UBS AG in October to help it renegotiate the debt, and has been talking to local government agencies in Wuxi about receiving financial aid. It announced March 11 a forbearance deal with 63 percent of its bondholders, who agreed not to exercise their rights until May 15.
    Not all the bondholders agreed to the deal and some said they were never contacted by Suntech.


    Complicating the process is the fact that the Chinese bankruptcy filing names Suntech’s main unit, Wuxi Suntech Power Holdings Co., which is subject to Chinese law.



    ‘Substantial Costs’



    The parent company is incorporated in the Cayman Islands. The bondholders are creditors of the parent company, and the bond prospectus said the debt is governed by New York law. “Any litigation in China may be protracted and result in substantial costs,” Suntech said in its 2011 annual report.


    U.S. creditors must contend with “a fundamental disadvantage that non-Chinese lenders have in a bankruptcy,” said Christopher Peterson, a partner at the law firm Kaye Scholer LLP. “They would need to get the consent of a Chinese court to get action in China, which the Chinese lenders don’t have to face.”


    Suntech said it remains in production. That means the company’s failure won’t do much to alleviate the global panel glut, said Gordon Johnson, an analyst with Axiom Capital Management Inc.


    “That capacity continues to exist in the market, which is clearly not good for the market,” he said in an interview.


    Four of the six top panel manufacturers are based in China. Suntech fell to fifth in production capacity last year behind China’s Trina Solar Ltd. and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., Tempe, Arizona-based First Solar Inc. and Canadian Solar Inc., according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.



    State Support



    Suntech named an executive from a government-backed development company in Wuxi to serve as its president March 19. Zhou Weiping previously worked as chairman of Guolian Futures Co., a unit of Wuxi Guolian Development Group Co., which is partly owned by the regional authority.


    The company lost $1.01 billion in 2011 and was expected to report a loss of $460 million for 2012, the average of three analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.


    “If you’re an investor and didn’t see this coming, it’s on you,” Alex Morris, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in Houston, said in an interview.


    To contact the reporters on this story: Ehren Goossens in New York at [email protected]; Justin Doom in New York at [email protected]


    To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at [email protected]




    Quote Originally Posted by starrynight
    First China corp bond default. Solar was always sucky anyway...

  22. #742
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    9,217

    Default

    Bonds offered by Chinese better do not touch.
    Quote Originally Posted by starrynight
    This is what happens upon a default by a China company:

    Biggest Solar Collapse in China Imperils $1.28 Billion: Energy


    By Ehren Goossens and Justin Doom - Mar 20, 2013
    Investors stand to lose most of the $1.28 billion they put into Suntech Power Holdings Co. (STP) after the solar manufacturer said it wouldn’t resist a bankruptcy petition filed in China.


    The company, based in Wuxi, outside Shanghai, had more than $2 billion in debt and defaulted on $541 million in bonds due on March 15, prompting eight Chinese banks to ask a local court to push Suntech’s main unit into insolvency.


    “There’s a host of companies that have gone to Wall Street investors and gotten billions of dollars, and these investors are ultimately going to be on the hook and get nothing out of it,” Angelo Zino, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC in New York, said in an interview yesterday.
    Mount Kellett Capital Management LP, Driehaus Capital Management LLC and Pioneer Investment Management Inc. were the largest bondholders, with about 23 percent of the debt, according to December public filings compiled by Bloomberg.


    The largest outside owners of Suntech’s American depositary receipts are Renaissance Technologies Corp., Invesco Ltd. and Shah Capital Management. None of the bondholders or shareholders were available for comment.


    Suntech’s collapse follows bankruptcies in Germany of manufacturers including Q-Cells SE, previously the biggest solar manufacturer. Sharp Corp. of Japan, which led solar cell-making until 2006, has been scaling back operations overseas. In 2011, Solyndra LLC collapsed despite $535 million of support from the U.S. Energy Department.



    Forbearance Deal



    Suntech said last week that almost two-thirds of bondholders agreed to defer their rights for two months to give the company time to restructure its debt.


    It’s unclear how the Chinese filing will affect U.S. creditors, said James Millar, a partner at the law firm Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale & Dorr LLP in New York, who represents bondholders who own more than 1 percent of the debt.


    “I can’t speak so much to the Chinese process,” he said in an interview. “Does a bondholder of a holding company have standing in a Chinese operating unit’s bankruptcy? I think the right answer is that the bondholders should have a seat at that table.”


    Investors may lose everything, said Aaron Chew, an analyst with Maxim Group LLC in New York.



    ‘Nasty Fight’



    “This is about the Western bondholders versus the Chinese banks fighting for the assets, and there’s not enough to go around,” he said. “It’s going to be a nasty fight. I think this becomes a legal issue. One of the last companies I’d like to pick a fight with is Bank of China over an asset in China.”


    Suntech raised $742.6 million in two stock offerings in New York, in 2005 and 2009. Combined with the $541 million principal on the convertible bonds that matured March 15, it’s received $1.28 billion.


    The ADRs, each worth one ordinary share, closed at 59 cents March 19, before the bankruptcy was announced and trading halted. That’s a decline of more than 99 percent from the high of $88.35 in December 2007.


    “You can forget about the equity shareholders,” said Zino of Standard & Poor’s. “I don’t think there’s any way they’re getting anything out of this.”
    China has supported solar companies through credit lines from local government or state-backed agencies, prompting panel makers to expand factories. Suntech more than quadrupled its annual production capacity to 2,400 megawatts in 2011 from 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That made it the biggest solar manufacturer at the time.



    Global Glut



    The U.S. and European governments cut back on renewable- energy subsidies, slowing demand for solar panels and creating a global oversupply that drove down prices 20 percent last year.


    Suntech hasn’t reported a profit since the first quarter of 2011.
    The company hired UBS AG in October to help it renegotiate the debt, and has been talking to local government agencies in Wuxi about receiving financial aid. It announced March 11 a forbearance deal with 63 percent of its bondholders, who agreed not to exercise their rights until May 15.
    Not all the bondholders agreed to the deal and some said they were never contacted by Suntech.


    Complicating the process is the fact that the Chinese bankruptcy filing names Suntech’s main unit, Wuxi Suntech Power Holdings Co., which is subject to Chinese law.



    ‘Substantial Costs’



    The parent company is incorporated in the Cayman Islands. The bondholders are creditors of the parent company, and the bond prospectus said the debt is governed by New York law. “Any litigation in China may be protracted and result in substantial costs,” Suntech said in its 2011 annual report.


    U.S. creditors must contend with “a fundamental disadvantage that non-Chinese lenders have in a bankruptcy,” said Christopher Peterson, a partner at the law firm Kaye Scholer LLP. “They would need to get the consent of a Chinese court to get action in China, which the Chinese lenders don’t have to face.”


    Suntech said it remains in production. That means the company’s failure won’t do much to alleviate the global panel glut, said Gordon Johnson, an analyst with Axiom Capital Management Inc.


    “That capacity continues to exist in the market, which is clearly not good for the market,” he said in an interview.


    Four of the six top panel manufacturers are based in China. Suntech fell to fifth in production capacity last year behind China’s Trina Solar Ltd. and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., Tempe, Arizona-based First Solar Inc. and Canadian Solar Inc., according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.



    State Support



    Suntech named an executive from a government-backed development company in Wuxi to serve as its president March 19. Zhou Weiping previously worked as chairman of Guolian Futures Co., a unit of Wuxi Guolian Development Group Co., which is partly owned by the regional authority.


    The company lost $1.01 billion in 2011 and was expected to report a loss of $460 million for 2012, the average of three analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.


    “If you’re an investor and didn’t see this coming, it’s on you,” Alex Morris, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in Houston, said in an interview.


    To contact the reporters on this story: Ehren Goossens in New York at [email protected]; Justin Doom in New York at [email protected]


    To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at [email protected]

  23. #743
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    706

    Default

    US markets rose following Asia’s rise yesterday and after the
    FED signalled continued bond purchases. The FED said it will
    continue to purchase $85bn of bonds/mth and reiterated that
    it will do so “until the outlook for the labour has improved
    substantially”. It added that short-term policy rates (Fed funds)
    will remain near zero for “at least as long as the
    unemployment rate remains above 6.5%” and inflation
    expectations stay well behaved. FED Chairman Ben Bernanke
    later stressed that QE3 was not an all-or-nothing program and
    that the pace of bond purchases could be varied as and when
    the data improves.

  24. #744
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
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    Default

    Hurray .
    Quote Originally Posted by starrynight
    US markets rose following Asia’s rise yesterday and after the
    FED signalled continued bond purchases. The FED said it will
    continue to purchase $85bn of bonds/mth and reiterated that
    it will do so “until the outlook for the labour has improved
    substantially”. It added that short-term policy rates (Fed funds)
    will remain near zero for “at least as long as the
    unemployment rate remains above 6.5%” and inflation
    expectations stay well behaved. FED Chairman Ben Bernanke
    later stressed that QE3 was not an all-or-nothing program and
    that the pace of bond purchases could be varied as and when
    the data improves.

  25. #745
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    Jan 2013
    Posts
    62

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Hurray .
    This is a cause for celebration?

  26. #746
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    1,516

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Iamderek
    This is a cause for celebration?
    For those who hold more debts than cash and do not intend to sell their properties. Why not?

  27. #747
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,081

    Default

    ABN USD bond 6.25%. LTV 60%
    Bought US$300k@100 ,12/9/12.
    Got the 1st coupon payout US$9972 on 15th Mar13.


    Manage to sell my ABN USD bond at price 107.5 on 25th Mar13 to slowly reduce my borrowing. Profit= US$22500.

    Gross profit = US$22500+9972(coupon)-1600(borrowing)
    = US$30872.

    It seem like bond is still holding well same as property in 2013.

    rdgs,
    vic

  28. #748
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    526

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    ABN USD bond 6.25%. LTV 60%
    Bought US$300k@100 ,12/9/12.
    Got the 1st coupon payout US$9972 on 15th Mar13.


    Manage to sell my ABN USD bond at price 107.5 on 25th Mar13 to slowly reduce my borrowing. Profit= US$22500.

    Gross profit = US$22500+9972(coupon)-1600(borrowing)
    = US$30872.

    It seem like bond is still holding well same as property in 2013.

    rdgs,
    vic
    Cbsh

    Well done, u managed to make a pile within 6 mth, really not bad.

    Are you looking at any other bond or similar investment tool after u sold, can give some tips? My funds reserved for buying property don't know what do now cos not willing to pay ABSD, put in bank deposit only 1%....sigh, property cannot buy, buy shares shares drop...so sad.

  29. #749
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,081

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Werther
    Cbsh

    Well done, u managed to make a pile within 6 mth, really not bad.

    Are you looking at any other bond or similar investment tool after u sold, can give some tips? My funds reserved for buying property don't know what do now cos not willing to pay ABSD, put in bank deposit only 1%....sigh, property cannot buy, buy shares shares drop...so sad.
    It is a bit late to go into bond now. Unless U dont mind low yield return of 2% for short dated bond. Biosensor SGD bond 4.875% was issued in early Jan13 when it share price was 1.39. Today the bond price is 103 & it share price drop from 1.39 to 1.25. It is a bit crazy for a bond to go up so fast.

    http://tradehaven.me/2013/01/26/bond...kies-paradise/


    Last week , I was in HK to meet my std chart banker which I hv not kept in touch for >5 yrs. HK bankers are more knowledgeable. She warns me that the next downturn maybe worst than 1997/98. She dont know when. Everything is up because of easy QE, not because of good economic fundamental. I will be slowly reduce my bond holding by end 2013. Waiting to go into equities. I did bought some Bank of China (HK$3.5+) for dividend 5-6% this coming May13.

    Each individual investor has it own risk profile. Just be more patience if U are not comfortable investing now. Mkt downturn will come. Just dont follow "HERD" mentally.


    From Spanish Philpsopher George Santayana.
    "THOSE WHO CANNOT REMEMBER THE PAST ARE CONDEMNED to REPEAT IT"


    rdgs,
    Vic

  30. #750
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    706

    Default

    Fully agree. I am far less experienced than you, but I think now's really not the right time / risk-benefit level to load up on "resale" bonds.

    Was bitching to my friends about Biosensors over the weekend too.

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    It is a bit late to go into bond now. Unless U dont mind low yield return of 2% for short dated bond. Biosensor SGD bond 4.875% was issued in early Jan13 when it share price was 1.39. Today the bond price is 103 & it share price drop from 1.39 to 1.25. It is a bit crazy for a bond to go up so fast.

    http://tradehaven.me/2013/01/26/bond...kies-paradise/


    Last week , I was in HK to meet my std chart banker which I hv not kept in touch for >5 yrs. HK bankers are more knowledgeable. She warns me that the next downturn maybe worst than 1997/98. She dont know when. Everything is up because of easy QE, not because of good economic fundamental. I will be slowly reduce my bond holding by end 2013. Waiting to go into equities. I did bought some Bank of China (HK$3.5+) for dividend 5-6% this coming May13.

    Each individual investor has it own risk profile. Just be more patience if U are not comfortable investing now. Mkt downturn will come. Just dont follow "HERD" mentally.


    From Spanish Philpsopher George Santayana.
    "THOSE WHO CANNOT REMEMBER THE PAST ARE CONDEMNED to REPEAT IT"


    rdgs,
    Vic

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