BOND THREAD

[starrynight]

Today's issuance:

ISSUER:
Renault S.A
ISSUER RATING:
Ba1 stable / BB+ stable (Moody’s/S&P)
EXPECTED ISSUE RATING:
Ba1 / BB+ (Moody’s/S&P)
FORMAT:
Reg S, Bearer, Dematerialised
STATUS:
Reg S, Bearer, Dematerialised
ISSUE SIZE:
CNH Benchmark
TENOR:
3 years
RISK RATING:
P4
INITIAL GUIDANCE:
4.75% area
DETAILS:
EMTN / French Law / Euronext Paris Listing
JOINT BOOKRUNNERS:
HSBC / ICBC ( Asia )
TIMING:
As early as today's business
Prospectus:
http://www.renault.com/en/lists/archivesdocuments/base%20prospectus%20may%202012.pdf

[CondoWE]

Fund and bond still can go in now? Or should I wait?

First time here....needs advice to park some money else where beside properties.... !

[starrynight]

Now not really the time to buy resale bonds, if you ask me.

If you see an attractive new launch, maybe still can consider. But (small?) correction may be on the horizon.

Quote from the Tradehaven site today:

Markets are sidelined and not doing much, SGD bonds unexcepted. PB flows have slowed considerably and the latest issues are not seeing much PB uptake which is a potentially good sign as the market really needs some time out.

Fund and bond still can go in now? Or should I wait?

First time here....needs advice to park some money else where beside properties.... !

[stl67]

What does PB flow means?

Congrats Vic.

It is true that bond price are now too high liao.

[starrynight]

Private banking volumes

What does PB flow means?

Congrats Vic.

It is true that bond price are now too high liao.

[chiaberry]

Some PB clients got caught on the Suntech shares. Their ELNs were struck 2 years ago @ around $8 and they were still holding on to the shares and today the share price is $0.45 (?)

[starrynight]

Yet another issuance today:

ISSUER:
Central Plaza Development Ltd
SUBSIDIARY GUARANTORS:
International Financial Center Property Ltd. and its 34 offshore subsidiaries
PARENT (KEEPWELL & Und. PROV):
Beijing Capital Land Ltd.
LETTER OF SUPPORT PROVIDER:
Beijing Capital Group Co., Ltd.
PARENT RATINGS:
Ba2/BB+ (Moody's/Fitch, both stable outlook)
ISSUE RATINGS:
Unrated
FORMAT:
Regulation S
ISSUE:
Senior Perpetual Capital Securities
RISK RATING:
P4 - Sophisticated
SIZE:
USD benchmark
TENOR:
Perpetual Non-Call 5 years
INITIAL PRICE TALK:
High 8%s
CALL OPTION:
Callable by the Issuer at Year 5 and on any distribution payment date thereafter
COUPON STEP-UP/RESET:
Reset at Year 5 and every 5 years thereafter + one time 500bps step in Year 5
OPTIONAL DEFERRAL:
Optional distribution deferral subject to the Pusher / Stopper
PUSHER:
Pusher on Junior Securities, Parity Securities and Early Redeemable Securities (6 monthslook-back)
STOPPER:
Stopper on Junior Securities, Parity Securities and Early Redeemable Securities
EARLY REDEMPTION:
Early Redemption at the option of the Issuer upon the occurrence of a: (a) Accounting Event (b) Gross-Up Event (c) Change of Control Event (d) Breach of Covenant Event (e)Minimal Outstanding Amount (f) Relevant Indebtedness
CHANGE OF CONTROL STEP- UP:
Step-up of 500bps (Decrease of 500bps in the event the Change of Control Event is remedied)
BREACH OF COVENANTS STEP-UP:
Step-up of 500bps (Decrease of 500bps if the relevant Covenant Breach is cured)
RELEVANT INDEBTEDNESS DEFAULT STEP-UP:
Step-up of 500bps (Decrease of 500bps if Relevant Indebtedness Default Event is cured)
USE OF PROCEEDS:
Working capital and general corporate purposes
DETAILS:
SEHK Listing, US$200K/1K Denoms, English Law
CLEARING:
Euroclear/Clearstream
SOLE GLOBAL COORDINATOR:
HSBC
JOINT LEAD MANAGERS & BOOKRUNNERS:
HSBC, Credit Suisse
TIMING
Today's business

[cbsh38584]

Some PB clients got caught on the Suntech shares. Their ELNs were struck 2 years ago @ around $8 and they were still holding on to the shares and today the share price is $0.45 (?)

I monitor this stock for many years. It was US$80 in 2008. The speculators took the opportunities to push up all Solar stock in early 2008 when oil price was >US$120. So never trust the analyst.

My friend invested his SG$200k plus & bought JDSU (US tech stock) in early 2000 at price US$800 plus. It crash to US$3 plus. Another friend thought that it is cheap to buy @US$60 since it has dropped from US$800. It went down further to US$3 plus & has been holding till now.

If U are not familar with Tech stock trend. Better dont touch. Stock like RIM, nokia, Dell , HP etc got hammer.

Equities are better bet than bond in long run if U are very patience enough to wait. Buy when the extreme fear. Dont be a herd instinct investors. Only trust FEAR INDEX.

You can be very rich if you hv the patience to wait & wait & wait for crisis to come. U just need one crisis to come & emotionally strong enough to buy. U will be very RICH.

rdgs,
Vic

[starrynight]

Zero Hedge article

[starrynight]

Today's bond issuance:

ISSUER:
CITIC Pacific Limited
ISSUER RATINGS:
Ba1 / BB+ (Moody's / S&P)
EXP. ISSUE RATINGS:
Ba1 / BB+ (Moody's / S&P)
FORMAT:
Regulation S, Registered. EMTN Drawdown
TYPE:
Senior Unsecured, Fixed Rate Notes
ISSUE SIZE:
US$ Benchmark
TENOR:
7-year Bullet
INITIAL PRICE GUIDANCE:
6.375 - 6.500% area
RISK RATING:
P4
USE OF PROCEEDS:
GCP including debt refinancing
DETAILS:
HKEx listing, English Law, $200k/1k denoms
JOINT BOOKRUNNERS:
CITIC Securities International, HSBC and UBS
JOINT LEADS (NO BOOKS):
BOCI and Standard Chartered Bank
TIMING:
As early as today's business

[hopeful]

from:
http://www.economist.com/news/financ...-many-one-offs

The most severe treatment of all was meted out to subordinated bondholders in SNS Reaal, a Dutch bank that was nationalised last month. The state expropriated the bonds outright, not only wiping out investors but also making it almost impossible for them to claim protection from credit-default swaps (CDSs), an insurance policy against default, because they no longer have any bonds to deliver.

wow, didnt know that have to deliver bonds to claim CDS.
learn something new everyday.

[starrynight]

Fed doves in no rush to scale back asset purchases

Flurry of speeches by central bankers doesn’t change policy outlook

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Leading supporters of the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program are not rushing to scale back the pace of purchases as the job market improves.

In an interview with reporters, Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, and a leading architect of the Fed’s ultra-loose policy, counseled a go-slow approach to making any changes to the $85-billion-a-month per month purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

“I think this is the point where we have to be patient and let our policies work,” Evans told reporters over breakfast.



“I prefer and think it is best that we continue to provide strong confidence that we are going to be doing appropriate accommodative policies to get the economy going again,” he said.



Other leading doves on the central bank, Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed and Narayana Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed Bank, also gave speeches that showed no rush to taper the program.



Rosengren and Evans both said they expected the asset purchases to last through 2013.



Evans said the Fed will have to have confidence that the economy was on solid footing in the second half of the year before changing policy.
“That could easily mean that we need to work our way through the second half before we have enough confidence that growth is strong enough,” Evans said.



Some other Fed officials are eager for the Fed to scale-back the asset purchases. A few believe the Fed should start tapering as soon as possible.

Sandra Pianalto, the president of the Cleveland Fed Bank, is more moderate. In a speech to an accounting group, Pianalto said the asset purchases could be scaled back if the economy continues gather momentum.



“That outcome could emerge before long, but it still remains to be seen,” Pianalto said.



The Fed is currently buying $45 billion in long-term Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month. After a two-day meeting last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed wanted to be convinced that recent improvement in the labor market was sustainable before curbing the purchases. Read ‘Fed still unconvinced of job-market healing’
William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, said in a speech Monday that he expected the fed would eventually scale back the pace of the purchases.



But Evans argued that the asset purchases were helping the economy.
“I can’t see that those are the parameters for doing less,” Evans said.
“I want to be really careful” about the signal that reducing bond-buying would be, he said.



Evans said he was open-minded and a couple of months of job growth over 300,000 would get his attention. In February, 236,000 jobs were created.
Evans and Rosengren downplayed potential costs of the program.



Evans said the benefits of the purchases dwarf the potential costs. “At the moment, it is not even a close call,” he said.



Critics of asset purchases view them as inflationary. But Rosengren said that these criticism “has become more muted” with the purchases going on for five years of stable inflation.

[cbsh38584]

I dont feel comfortable the implementation of capital control in Cyprus. I know the Russian banks hv exposured to Cyprus. Gazprombank, Russian bank claims that their exposure is min. But I still decide the sell away my Gazprombank perp bond 7.8% without maturity as I do not want the unknow
in my investment.

Bought US$200k @ 100.8 on 26/10/12.(LTV 70%)
Sold 102.5 on 28/3/13.
Profit est US$9910.

We got to be very careful & follow the news at Cyprus. Hopefully it will not be contagious & spread to other European countries. Look like USD is still the safe heaven.

rdgs,
Vic

[buttercarp]

I dont feel comfortable the implementation of capital control in Cyprus. I know the Russian banks hv exposured to Cyprus. Gazprombank, Russian bank claims that their exposure is min. But I still decide the sell away my Gazprombank perp bond 7.8% without maturity as I do not want the unknow
in my investment.

Bought US$200k @ 100.8 on 26/10/12.(LTV 70%)
Sold 102.5 on 28/3/13.
Profit est US$9910.

We got to be very careful & follow the news at Cyprus. Hopefully it will not be contagious & spread to other European countries. Look like USD is still the safe heaven.

rdgs,
Vic

Ya better take profit n run away.
Moody rating for Russian bond is still Baa1 but u never know.

m.rbth.asia/news/2013/03/28/moodys_affirms_russias_bond_rating_stable_outlook_45597.html

[newbie11]

can someone tell me what these are? bonds? my chinese really bad.

[cbsh38584]

Ya better take profit n run away.
Moody rating for Russian bond is still Baa1 but u never know.

m.rbth.asia/news/2013/03/28/moodys_affirms_russias_bond_rating_stable_outlook_45597.html

I am using my profit earned from bond & accumulating some physical gold from UOB. I still hv around S$3m bond & targetting to reduce more by end 2013 if I can hit my 2014 goal. Switch more to VIX fund & then hibernate for 6mths to a year patiently waiting for big correction.


rdgs,
Vic

[DC33_2008]

Gold has predicted by some experts that gold should hit US$ to hit $2000 per ounce. Do you think gold will climb again?

I am using my profit earned from bond & accumulating some physical gold from UOB. I still hv around S$3m bond & targetting to reduce more by end 2013 if I can hit my 2014 goal. Switch more to VIX fund & then hibernate for 6mths to a year patiently waiting for big correction.


rdgs,
Vic

[cbsh38584]

Gold has predicted by some experts that gold should hit US$ to hit $2000 per ounce. Do you think gold will climb again?

There are many tgt price for gold from the GURU. From 1350 to 2500.I really dont know. I buy small amt of physical gold as a insurance. Holding too much paper money is not good. Like at Cyprus. Money in the bank is also not safe.
I would like to buy property maybe in 2015/16 within my mean. The property is more for my children.




rdgs,
Vic

[Arcachon]

Gold is price in USD, get it.

[stl67]

I got 400k of funds that will be idle for 2 mths. What would be be the best return? Not shares as I need the $ later. Thinking of ELN but it can be quite risky.

[stl67]

There are many tgt price for gold from the GURU. From 1350 to 2500.I really dont know. I buy small amt of physical gold as a insurance. Holding too much paper money is not good. Like at Cyprus. Money in the bank is also not safe.
I would like to buy property maybe in 2015/16 within my mean. The property is more for my children.




rdgs,
Vic

Hope one say I can have the ability to do this for my children.
, but will not tel them until I about to mati :

Vic, what do u think of the 2828 and 2823 ETF? If do it as a FCN?

[buttercarp]

There are many tgt price for gold from the GURU. From 1350 to 2500.I really dont know. I buy small amt of physical gold as a insurance. Holding too much paper money is not good. Like at Cyprus. Money in the bank is also not safe.
I would like to buy property maybe in 2015/16 within my mean. The property is more for my children.




rdgs,
Vic

Hi Vic,
Any suggestions where to store physical gold?
Thanks.

[cbsh38584]

Hope one say I can have the ability to do this for my children.
, but will not tel them until I about to mati :

Vic, what do u think of the 2828 and 2823 ETF? If do it as a FCN?

The Beta is too low for 2823 (A-share). So the yield is not attractive for FCN or ELN for deep strike. You may look into buying direct 2823 (Dividend payout in Dec est 1.5%). It is quite low.Now it is HK$10.46. But it is in HK$. Pls check with your banker for further advise. I bought a small amt @11.7 in 2012. Sitting paper loss. Should hv make profit @12.10. I did not sell. Why ? GREED.


Not adviseable to do too many ELN/FCN. In fact should stop now as Apr/May is normally a correction mth. I maybe wrong. HK2828 (H-share), I dont really monitor this 2828 ETF. But investors preferred 2828 H-share but it has gone up. It did correct this few days because of Cyprus crisis.HK2823 corrected more.

rdgs,
Vic

[cbsh38584]

Hi Vic,
Any suggestions where to store physical gold?
Thanks.

If U are a UOB priority customer. They give U a free small safe box at UOB Shenton. But must use ladder to climb to reach your safe box. Not suitable for very old person who got weak leg.

rdgs,
Vic

[buttercarp]

If U are a UOB priority customer. They give U a free small safe box at UOB Shenton. But must use ladder to climb to reach your safe box. Not suitable for very old person who got weak leg.

rdgs,
Vic

Thanks, you mean you have to climb up and store it yourself?
Wow, ya not safe for old people!

Btw, is it insured and if so up to how much?

[cbsh38584]

Thanks, you mean you have to climb up and store it yourself?
Wow, ya not safe for old people!

Btw, is it insured and if so up to how much?

Sorry, If U join NEW as a UOB priority customer ($300k), they will give a Free safe box at UOB Raffles. Next to UOB gold counter. Very convenient.
Hopefully they still hv this incentive.


rdgs,
Vic

[buttercarp]

Sorry, If U join NEW as a UOB priority customer ($300k), they will give a Free safe box at UOB Raffles. Next to UOB gold counter. Very convenient.
Hopefully they still hv this incentive.


rdgs,
Vic

Thanks vic, must deposit so much money with them before they give a free safe box.

[amk]

wow, didnt know that have to deliver bonds to claim CDS.
learn something new everyday.

Not always, depending on the terms of ur CDS. Also "deliverable obligations" do not even need to be the same as "reference obligation", the one that triggers the default. During boom time of credit business, the face value of CDS protection of many names are much higher than the bond itself, simply because it is widely traded and issued. I dun need to own anything before I trade a CDS with you betting on a name's credit worthiness.

[cbsh38584]

China , HK & S'pore have come out many cooling measure to prevent property from further raising. There is a high chance that we will have another big crisis similar to 97/98 within 2 to 3 years. So be well informed on the very big danger of the QE withdrawal by the FED + Europe crisis.

Marginal potential property buyers need to know the danger of investing in property right now. It is better to keep cash & be ready for this very big crisis to come. Do not follow the 90% of herd rushing to buy property to so call hedge against inflation.Your return cannot beat the inflation. Do not follow those who are very cash rich as they are able to ride the crisis well.

There will be a big opportunities for those hv 300k to 500k cash to ready for the big crisis to come. In crisis , stocks have the best return & most liquid. If U are not comfortable with stocks. Bond is another alternative which U can look into. During the 08/09 crisis, UOB preference bond drop as low as 65. Today, it is above 100. Capitaland bond dropped as low as 78. Now it is above 100. U can treat Quality Perp bond like Cheung Kong etc as a retirement or pension fund if it drop alot during the crisis.

Just be very very patience. Be well read on financial issues & do alot of homework to build your emotional confidence on the stocks or bond U want to invest in crisis time. U will have another big opportunities. What you need is patience & be emotionally strong when crisis strike.

I will be slowly selling my bond in 2013. I do not want to repeat my past mistakes in 08/09. No bullets to buy extremely cheap stocks/bonds.


From Spanish Philpsopher George Santayana.
"THOSE WHO CANNOT REMEMBER THE PAST ARE CONDEMNED to REPEAT IT"

rdgs,
Vic

[hopeful]

nothing useful to add, just wondering whether cbsh's message would be better received than those other bears like basic, leeds, etc. when will dksg goes on the offensive.....