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Thread: BOND THREAD

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    I doubt very much I could even influence you.
    there are many people, sink in their belief so deeply and very difficult to crack and ask them to adopt others' view.
    Sometimes..it is looking at people really doing it with confidence that you will be moved to re-examine your truism.

    But of course..at this stage... i damn scared...

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    So I come forum to share, share but with no expectations of thanks from anyone. This is what I gladly do.

    One question, do you have an investment property? If no, go in. Start with a small 1. Learn the ropes. If you are not in, how the HELL are you going to learn.

    It is like me trying to show you how to swim. You watch from a tank for 1 year. After that, you jump into the pool, you think you know how to swim?

    Pay to learn man. I just dont understand why you have so much cash and yet so scared???
    Did you buy 10 bonds immediately???
    Food for thought.
    Yup. I only like to ask people what they are doing.. Will not ask them to give advice. Coz what they do is more important than what they tell you. Bankers can give advice.. the real doers INVEST! ..

    Agreed. I need to go in. But I can only think of commercial in Singapore or the Australia market. I think I am seeing what is happening in singapore in 2009, happening in australia market. Their interest rate is climbing down now and people who are stuck with high loan interest for years will think the same way as me.. it is an abnormality that wil correct itself soon. But it won't..

    of course.. investing is about TAKING ACTION. I talked too much.. Do too little.

    Bonds was also thru a half-year purchase at different timing. Most of it was acquired after I disposed of my stocks before the august 2011 selldown. Of course, i re-acquired stocks again from jan to feb 2012.. but not as much weightage.

    Well.. Too conservative loh. Now trying to open up. Anyway, Dr MIchael Leong also don't leverage .. the shareinvestor founder who sold out his company to SPH for $10mil. He's only investing in shares and properties for him is for staying not investing. Just pointing him out to share there are people like him who is rich and still don't believe in leverage and properties. While some are as rich but believe totally in properties and leverage.

    I'm now swaying to the properties and leverage camp.. but a little too late in singapore perharps.

  3. #33
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    Focus, Focus
    ur too focus. I recalled most of your postings, were focused on the achievements in the past, min leverage, missed here and there...etc

    just take stock and decide where you want to go, what you want to do...and game move on like that...

    u have the knowledge, perhaps lack of little wisdom and gut feel

  4. #34
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    Focus, specialise in something and I believe you have found it. I am in no way advocating properties.
    There are people who make way more out of spotting good stocks then a person who had gone in with properties.
    So you choose what you want. But please dont look at the swimming pool and keep telling yourself "wouldn't it be nice if I can swim like this guy (butterfly strokes)", but you cant even change to a swimming trunk let alone, touch the pool. It will bring you pain.
    You are already doing well and I wish you well in your endeavour.

    One more thing, you keep talking about leverage - I hope you are in no way referring to me. I am way under leverage !!! Hahahahaha. Why? I want to sleep well at nite but bloody problem is I keep waking up in the middle of the nite and realised, people at my age generally have this problem. Hahahaha.

    Cheers !!!
    Last edited by chestnut; 17-10-12 at 17:52.

  5. #35
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    thanks both chestnut and laguna.
    yup. sitting on my butt.
    Analysis paralysis.

    That's why my nick is focus.. i realised i need focus.. and ACTION..
    so maybe need a new nick.. JUSTDOIT.

    Laguna.. ya.. take stock and move on .. I will do that definitely. ACTION ACTION ACTION.

    chestnut, not talking about you. I'm just saying too much leverage on financial instruments is no no for me. I will be scared to sleep every nite. But maybe those who have more wisdom are using it successfully. Not me.
    Last edited by focus; 17-10-12 at 20:01.

  6. #36
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    Focus : sharing with us your decision...

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    So I am very scared to give advise anymore. Give, they make - no thank you. If dont make, kana f. IF never keep them posted, also get f. Thankless job.

    So I come forum to share, share but with no expectations of thanks from anyone. This is what I gladly do.
    Yes, same here.

    Now, I have distant quite a number of friends due to my so called "ADVICE" but they did not act on, and blamed me heavily. Somehow, itch again, made calls in REITs and BONDs early this year...got whack again.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    Yes, same here.

    Now, I have distant quite a number of friends due to my so called "ADVICE" but they did not act on, and blamed me heavily. Somehow, itch again, made calls in REITs and BONDs early this year...got whack again.
    Poor thing. The happiest moment for me was when my 1 down bought investment properties and now happily collecting rental. But w this financial measure, I told them they cannot play anymore. If not I need to give them big increment. Then I will get shit. So sad

  9. #39
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    Sometime, it is just a matter of keeping your ears on the ground.

    I recalled the fateful dinner that we had in July 2009, a group of us doing the usual friendly bantering, tcss over nothing important, and the conversation veered to condo investment, which one was good to buy la, potential yields la and so on. I told them "listen, this is what my agent has been telling me...the best buy now is landed!...FH terraces in Serangoon Garden, Thomson, Sembawang Hill are being offered at about $500 psf".

    And then we had the chorus of reactions, "sure or not,...not possible la,...don't bluff". At the end of more bantering, four of us decided to explore the possibility further in earnest.

    We retained the agent to scout for units in these areas for our review, and eventually each bought a unit, I picked up one, my wife another, all in original condition, single storey terraces on land about 2000 sqf built in the 1960s, at prices $1.0 mil to $1.2 mil each.

    We spent another $500,000 or so each, to tear down the old dwelling to reconstruct a new 2.5-storeys building in 2010. One of us, a lady in early 40s, sold her reconstructed unit at $2.0 mil just after its completion. Another, a young chap in mid 30s, he was staying in a 3-rooms HDB with her widowed mother, didn't do anything to the old house at all, but sold it off just 2 months ago at $2.0 mil, grossing him $1.0 mil in just over a year. His deployed capital? Just more than $250,000.

    When we looked back, we all thought that the situation was really weird. In July 2009, the stock markets had already recovered most of its plunge, the economy was not great but ok, with still some unemployment issue, and yet this mispricing opportunity was presented to us. Once we acted on it, the rest is history.

  10. #40
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    Spoken like a champ. I keep my eyes wide open and my ears ever listening. Look at history. It always repeats somewhat w some twist here and there. If u see the climb to 1997, it is somewhat similar. Landed was last to cheong. So history repeats itself. Dig back some newspaper clippings if u can find and the same story. Landed limited. Very exclusive, blah, blah, blah...
    Only for Singaporeans.
    Then came 1997 Asia financial crisis. It was this that put a halt to the entire show. If not it would have continued.
    But wat remains the same is: with a MAJOR crisis and huge unemployment coupled w long recession, the prices will drop big time. I have asked anyone to show me when prices drop big time and did not correlate to the long recession but none can show me proof.

    That's why I keep stressing- knowledge of past is an important guide to the future. Notice I used the word GUIDE.
    That's how great conquerors win the battle.
    Well done mr secretary.

    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    Sometime, it is just a matter of keeping your ears on the ground.

    I recalled the fateful dinner that we had in July 2009, a group of us doing the usual friendly bantering, tcss over nothing important, and the conversation veered to condo investment, which one was good to buy la, potential yields la and so on. I told them "listen, this is what my agent has been telling me...the best buy now is landed!...FH terraces in Serangoon Garden, Thomson, Sembawang Hill are being offered at about $500 psf".

    And then we had the chorus of reactions, "sure or not,...not possible la,...don't bluff". At the end of more bantering, four of us decided to explore the possibility further in earnest.

    We retained the agent to scout for units in these areas for our review, and eventually each bought a unit, I picked up one, my wife another, all in original condition, single storey terraces on land about 2000 sqf built in the 1960s, at prices $1.0 mil to $1.2 mil each.

    We spent another $500,000 or so each, to tear down the old dwelling to reconstruct a new 2.5-storeys building in 2010. One of us, a lady in early 40s, sold her reconstructed unit at $2.0 mil just after its completion. Another, a young chap in mid 30s, he was staying in a 3-rooms HDB with her widowed mother, didn't do anything to the old house at all, but sold it off just 2 months ago at $2.0 mil, grossing him $1.0 mil in just over a year. His deployed capital? Just more than $250,000.

    When we looked back, we all thought that the situation was really weird. In July 2009, the stock markets had already recovered most of its plunge, the economy was not great but ok, with still some unemployment issue, and yet this mispricing opportunity was presented to us. Once we acted on it, the rest is history.

  11. #41
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    Bro, what you said is so true.

    In fact, what intrigued me to the landed sector, there is also an interesting case.

    My wife, one of her ex-subordinate, a single lady in mid-40s, she lived in a HDB flat with her retired parents. She is a dog-lover, she has 3 purebred dogs, and so she was always complaining that, "aiyah, HDB flat ah no room for her dogs la, her dogs not enough exercise la, pangsai very troublesome la...etc". She vowed to get a landed just for the dogs, and no terrace, must be semi-d with a big compound for the dogs to run on...

    And so, early 2009, she bought a semi-d, FH, at the area just a short distance from where FEO's Cabana is, a rather nice terrained place. $1.4 mil, put in another $700,000 for reconstruction, totaled $2.1 mil. Moved in with her dogs, her parents rented out the HDB, living happily seeing her happy dogs.

    But where are they now?

    About 4 months ago, my wife received her resignation, she sold the semi-d at $4.8 mil, and migrated everyone to Vancouver Canada, together with the dogs (she got the PR there, and her parents still on social visit passes). Bought a house there at about $300,000 Canadian, and in progress of opening a small cafe to keep herself busy while looking for a permanent job.

    So, she has not been the one sophisticated about investment, parked all her money in FDs basically, indulged on her dogs etc, and the dogs led her to a decision that changed her life totally.

  12. #42
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    How many lucky people are like that? I rather be lucky then smart. But if you have both, Shiok.

    This is what I call a total alignment of stars. Right time, right place, Everything fall in place. She also has done many good deeds in life and this is the return she received. I strongly believe in Karma. If people do you wrong, ignore them. If you want, do good deeds but expect no return but somehow the returns will find their way to you.

    Enjoy your landed. You deserve it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    Bro, what you said is so true.

    In fact, what intrigued me to the landed sector, there is also an interesting case.

    My wife, one of her ex-subordinate, a single lady in mid-40s, she lived in a HDB flat with her retired parents. She is a dog-lover, she has 3 purebred dogs, and so she was always complaining that, "aiyah, HDB flat ah no room for her dogs la, her dogs not enough exercise la, pangsai very troublesome la...etc". She vowed to get a landed just for the dogs, and no terrace, must be semi-d with a big compound for the dogs to run on...

    And so, early 2009, she bought a semi-d, FH, at the area just a short distance from where FEO's Cabana is, a rather nice terrained place. $1.4 mil, put in another $700,000 for reconstruction, totaled $2.1 mil. Moved in with her dogs, her parents rented out the HDB, living happily seeing her happy dogs.

    But where are they now?

    About 4 months ago, my wife received her resignation, she sold the semi-d at $4.8 mil, and migrated everyone to Vancouver Canada, together with the dogs (she got the PR there, and her parents still on social visit passes). Bought a house there at about $300,000 Canadian, and in progress of opening a small cafe to keep herself busy while looking for a permanent job.

    So, she has not been the one sophisticated about investment, parked all her money in FDs basically, indulged on her dogs etc, and the dogs led her to a decision that changed her life totally.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    So, she has not been the one sophisticated about investment, parked all her money in FDs basically, indulged on her dogs etc, and the dogs led her to a decision that changed her life totally.
    走狗屎运
    i sibei jealous

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    Quote Originally Posted by taggy
    走狗屎运
    i sibei jealous
    Bro, dont be jealous. Be happy. Because got such people, there is a possibility that your turn might come.

    I am always happy when I hear of people's success and sad when I hear of their failure.

    Second option, keep 3 big dogs. Hahaha. Second option is just TCSS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by taggy
    走狗屎运
    i sibei jealous
    Woof, woof....hahaha

    Oh yes, she is a very nice lady. Quite pretty also, but no love here in Singapore. Maybe in Canada.

  16. #46
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    how does she has so much money to buy and reno the landed ?

    amazing lady

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    ABN Amro finds liquidity in Singapore dollar bond market


    ABN Amro wades into the Singapore market with a S$1 billion tier-2 issue as banks look to shore up their capital structures.

    By Denise Wee | 18 October 2012
    Keywords: abn amro | singapore dollar bond | tier 2 | hybrid | loss absorption | dbs | ubs | standard chartered






    With Basel III around the corner, banks worldwide are looking to shore up their capital. Last night, ABN Amro closed a S$1 billion ($822 million) tier-2 issue, and proved that there is ample demand for European hybrid paper in the Singapore dollar bond market. The deal attracted a whopping S$17 billion of orders from 170 accounts.
    “It was the first public bond deal for ABN Amro in the Sing dollar market, and they achieved cost savings of about 30bp compared to the dollar market for the same structure,” said a source. “There is clearly unfulfilled demand for European bank paper in Singapore dollars.”
    The Dutch bank does not do much business in Singapore — not enough to justify raising S$1 billion anyway — and the bank is expected to swap the proceeds.
    The tier-2 paper has a loss-absorption feature, so it was also a test of investor appetite for such bonds. They will have statutory loss absorption only if ABN’s regulatory regime in the Netherlands calls for it.
    The 10-year non-call five-year bond priced at a yield of 4.7%, at the tight end of the 4.7% to 4.8% final guidance. The hybrid priced at a spread of 379bp over the five-year swap offer rate (SOR). There is a single reset at the fifth year at a spread of 379bp over the prevailing five-year SOR if the bonds are not called, and no step up.
    Singapore investors were allocated 65%, other Asian investors 31% and European investors 4%. Private banks were allocated 58%, fund managers 31%, banks 5%, insurers 3% and other investors 3%.
    ABN Amro is rated A2 by Moody’s and A+ by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, but the subordinated bond was a few notches lower and is expected to be rated BBB+ by S&P and BBB by Fitch.
    DBS, Standard Chartered and UBS were joint bookrunners.


    © Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

  18. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lovelle
    how does she has so much money to buy and reno the landed ?

    amazing lady
    and this lady is Secretariat's wife's subordinate.. if her subordinate is earning enough to do a downpayment (using 20% as the bare minimum but maybe she paid down more?) + reno of at least 1mil, then imagine how much Secretariat's wife is earning!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vincegoh
    and this lady is Secretariat's wife's subordinate.. if her subordinate is earning enough to do a downpayment (using 20% as the bare minimum but maybe she paid down more?) + reno of at least 1mil, then imagine how much Secretariat's wife is earning!
    i am sure Secretariet also richie rich as he himself also made from landed. "He and his wife bought a landed each"....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lovelle
    i am sure Secretariet also richie rich as he himself also made from landed. "He and his wife bought a landed each"....
    poorie poor like me always admire these pple... hopefully when i'm 40 i can also emulate them and be able to plonk down 700k on renovation!

  21. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vincegoh
    and this lady is Secretariat's wife's subordinate.. if her subordinate is earning enough to do a downpayment (using 20% as the bare minimum but maybe she paid down more?) + reno of at least 1mil, then imagine how much Secretariat's wife is earning!
    Aiyah, don't have to come up with a lumpsum of $700,000 for reconstruction one mah? Even if she has it, it still made sense to borrow since the interest rate was so low (still low today). It is called construction loan, LTV guideline applied, and after TOP obtained, convert it into an ordinary housing loan.

    My wife ah, I don't know her earning leh...what she earns is hers, what I earn also hers...hahaha.

    But seriously, if you know of people working for listed American MNC, their (those qualified ones) yearly stock options can be shocking. One Country Manager that I know, based in China, his stock option exercised last year grossed him $500,000. Which he promptly used as part deposits for 2 units of Watertown, before the wife or mistress got to the money.

  22. #52
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    I think that what Chestnut has pointed out are very true; historical prices, prices correlation with interest rate, with other investment class of instrument such as stock, knowledge of finance, risk reward etc etc.

    When I first studied the landed sector, financing of reconstruction etc, many times the reaction was also..."like that also can ah?".

    With the knowledge, the risk of executing a plan, the downside risks, can be better measured.

  23. #53
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    Copied the following from another thread
    Just to consolidate discussion on bond under this thread

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    if U want to simply want to better used of your >$300k cash to beat inflation. U should look into BOND. Today, OUE (4% ) 7yrs new bond is 9x oversubscribe.This OUE bond LTV is 70%. If U get allocation. U only need to come out cash $75k to buy 1 lot (min $250k). The rest $175k is borrowed @ interest rate 1.35%. So your effective yield is actually 8%. U can sell the bond anytime.


    The rich people are moving into Bond, not property. U can find out more from your Std chart or DBS relationship manager. U need to wait for a stock mkt deep correction maybe next yr to be able to buy the SG bond at good price. Start to find out more about bond.

    rdgs,
    Vic
    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    As for the new bond issue, SCB will not give u upfront leverage financing, ie u need to come out with the full $250,000 first, and once ur alloted, then u can apply for the leverage. Once the leverage comes, u can only buy over OTC at a min of $250,000. I am not sure about DBS as their pricing is not so attractive to me.

    For the OUE case, it is over-subscribed within 10 minutes, only institution buyers, with a size of only $200m and there is no LTV given for this. With such a small sze issue, u hardly can find an OTC market. And, u cannot even get one lot if ur just a small fish of 1 lot.

    On top of this, there is a custodian fee, I cannot recall the %.
    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    BTW, u must be quite a big customer with DBS or SCB to have a cost of fund of 1.35%.
    In average, the leverage cost is 1.55% to 1.8%pa, depends on who you are.

    also forgot to add, there is a spread when u buy / sell at OTC, I think is 0.5%
    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    I think chestnut have mentioned before.. what is the focus here..

    if you want income, bonds might be the instrument..
    but if you want capital appreciation, property will be the instrument.

    But definitely agree bonds with leverage is damn good returns. Now is only how much risk appetite you have. Maybe cbsh378$784 can shed some light on how he mitigate the risks of borrowing costs going up and his risk management or money management on bonds.

  24. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    Copied the following from another thread
    Just to consolidate discussion on bond under this thread
    Have no experience with Bond.
    Could you explain what is leverage cost of 1.5-1.8%.

    If one buys and sells the bond, what is the total cost involved 2.5-3.0%?
    That means if Bond pays say 4% per year, if one sells within a year, does it mean its only 1% returns if Bond prices remains the same?
    Any other hidden costs ivolved?
    Thanks

  25. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by ekl2ekl2
    Have no experience with Bond.
    Could you explain what is leverage cost of 1.5-1.8%.

    If one buys and sells the bond, what is the total cost involved 2.5-3.0%?
    That means if Bond pays say 4% per year, if one sells within a year, does it mean its only 1% returns if Bond prices remains the same?
    Any other hidden costs ivolved?
    Thanks
    This is too much to write for me.
    Let Focus, Chestnut, the younger ones to share with u. They are better than me.

  26. #56
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    the only Bond I know is James Bond.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carbuncle
    the only Bond I know is James Bond.
    yaya, I am waiting for the SKYFALL......
    I nvr miss any of the James Bond show...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    yaya, I am waiting for the SKYFALL......
    I nvr miss any of the James Bond show...
    Adele sings the theme song.
    I like her.
    However I think the theme song does not seem to suit her voice.

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    Bond is in a huge bubble ... underweight
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    extracted the following from eCO thread

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    I believe property will not crash due to the low interest rate. So does BOND.
    If interest rate will to slowly creep up 2-3%. You have plenty of time to sell your bond. As for property, U need to wait till the 5th year to be able to sell due to the stamp duty penalty. If U cant rent out. U need to come out 30k to 40k/yr or more (50k/yr) to service your loan , property tax & maintenance fee. U really need to have a deep pocket for this property investment.

    rdgs,
    Vic
    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    are you a bond salesman? you describe it like the best thing since slice bread.

    and by the way, bonds aren't without their downside, because of the excessive yield compression, when interest rates rise, those low yielders are going to be hit first, and it could hit faster than you can call your broker to sell ah. And in an OTC market, bear in mind you have to deal with bid offer spreads that may widen in times of less favourable market conditions.

    but please take this bond discussion to the other thread, i have no wish to continue talking about bonds in Eco's thread.

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