BOND THREAD

[cbsh38584]

Chinese developer , SHUI ON USD perp bond 10.75% price was 101 last Friday. Today, it goes up to 103. It is the same as other chinese developer bond. But the increase is not much.

rdgs,
Vic

[Laguna]

The subject of forming a private whatapps group is closed as certain key members were not keen.

Let's share via this thread or via PM or even email.

[starrynight]

Today's issuance:

Issuer:
Ezra Holdings Limited
Issuer Ratings:
Unrated
Status:
Direct, unconditional, unsubordinated and unsecured Notes
Format:
Reg S, S274 & 275 of Singapore SFA
Tenor:
5 Years
Size:
S$ TBC
Coupon:
4.7 - 5% area Semi-annual, actual/365 (fixed)
Details:
SGD250K/Multicurrency Debt Issuance Programme/Singapore Law/CDP
Joint Bookrunners:
DBS (B&D), OCBC
Listing:
SGX-ST
Use of proceeds:
Mainly for refinancing the existing borrowings of the Issuer and its subsidiaries ("Group") and remaining for financing general working capital and general corporate purposes of the Group
Timing:
This week's business, as early as today
Risk Rating:
P4 (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)

[Laguna]

ABX (Barrick Gold) dropped 6% to US$25.07 today. Tigger level is 62% of US$39.5 = US$22.3. if ABX will to close at US$22.3 below. The contract become live & client got the high risk that their US$100k capital will convert to share @ 95% of US$39.5 = US$37.52.

Need to wait for another 7 mths to know the conversion price. So there is a real risk if the FCN is long tenor + extremely attractive yield 22% + very deep knock in level 62%. Client is at lose end for this FCN conditions.

rdgs,
Vic

last nite was 18.68

[cbsh38584]

last nite was 18.68

Foreign private banks are here not to help U to make money. If we are inexperience, they will help U to lose money.

rdgs,
Vic

[indomie]

Foreign private banks are here not to help U to make money. If we are inexperience, they will help U to lose money.

rdgs,
Vic

This is one lesson I learn the hard way.

[Laguna]

Foreign private banks are here not to help U to make money. If we are inexperience, they will help U to lose money.

rdgs,
Vic

Yes, I fully agreed with.
Even you have a very good portfolio, they will still trying very hard to get you to switch.

[phantom_opera]

my Dow gold ratio of 15k to 1,500 coming very near liao

beware, once dow gold ratio hits 10 is doubled confirmed in next few days... it will be the D-day

I am stunned by my own prediction lol

Gold 1400
Dow 14537

Dow gold ratio > 10

[starrynight]

Launched today:

ISSUER:
Union Bank of India, acting through its Hong Kong branch
ISSUER RATINGS:
Baa3 (Stable) / BBB- (Negative) (Moody's / S&P)
EXP ISSUE RATINGS:
Baa3 / BBB- (Moody's / S&P)
STRUCTURE:
Fixed Rate Senior Unsecured Notes
FORMAT:
Regulation S Registered (off US$2.0 billion EMTN Programme)
ISSUE SIZE:
USD Benchmark
TENOR:
5.5 year
INITIAL PRICE GUIDANCE:
3.86% area (T+315bps area; T~0.716)
EVENT OF DEFAULT:
If government ceases to own more than 50% of Union Bank of India
TERMS:
SGX listing, US$200k/1k denoms, English law
JOINT BOOKRUNNERS:
Barclays, BNP Paribas, BofA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and Standard Chartered Bank
B&D:
Barclays
TIMING:
As early as today

[starrynight]

Re-opened, i.e. not fully subscribed the last time round?

Issuer:
Tata Communications (Netherlands) B.V.
Guarantor:
Tata Communications Limited
Structure:
Fixed Rate Senior Unsecured Notes
Issuer/Issue rating:
Unrated
Format:
Regulation S
Re-Tap Issue:
Re-opening of S$250 million 4.25% Senior Unsecured Notes due 1 February 2016 (ISIN: SG6Z15989833)
Initial Guidance:
4.25%
Size:
TBA
Settlement Date:
TBA
Maturity Date:
1 February 2016
Re-Tap Px Guidance
101.00 area (3.861% area), plus accrued interest from and including 1 February 2013
Change of Control:
Change of Control put at 100% , if the Tata Group ceases to (directly or indirectly) control the Guarantor or own at least 26% of the voting securities of the Guarantor OR the Guarantor ceases to (directly or indirectly) control the Issuer and its intermediate holding company, Tata Communications International Pte. Ltd (“TCIPL”) or own at least 51% of the voting securities of the Issuer or TCIPL
Clearing:
CDP
Denoms:
SGD 250k
Details:
English Law / SGX Listing
Bookrunner:
ANZ, DBS Bank Ltd., The Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Chartered Bank
Risk Rating:
4

[phantom_opera]

dow gold ratio will retest 10, 1455 vs 14550

[starrynight]

Any views? Looks interesting?

Issuer:
Courts Asia Limited
Status:
Senior, unsecured
Issue rating:
Unrated
Initial Guidance:
4.75% - 5.5%, semi-annual, ACT/365 (Fixed)
Tenor:
3 Year
Issue Size:
TBA
Issue Date:
23 April 2013
Maturity Date:
23 April 2020
Issue Price:
100%
Details:
SGD250K / Singapore Law / CDP
Joint Bookrunner:
DBS (B&D) / HSBC
Timing:
As early as today's business

[starrynight]

Another issue:

ISSUER:
UA Finance (BVI) Limited
GUARANTOR:
United Asia Finance Limited
ISSUER RATINGS:
Unrated
ISSUE:
Fixed Rate, Senior Unsecured
EXPECTED ISSUE RATINGS:
Unrated
FORMAT:
Reg-S, Registered Form, issued off USD 3bn MTN programme
EXPECTED ISSUE SIZE:
CNH Benchmark
TENOR:
5 Years
INITIAL PRICE GUIDANCE:
7% area
USE OF PROCEEDS:
General corporate purposes
DETAILS:
No listing / CNH 1 million + 10k denoms / English Law
JOINT BOOKRUNNERS:
IBTS Asia (HK) Limited, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Asia) Limited and The Royal Bank of Scotland (B&D)
TIMING:
As early as today

[starrynight]

Commentary on Tradehaven:

***NEW ISSUE: Courts Asia Limited (“Courts”) 3-yr SGD Sr Unsecured***
Issuer: Courts Asia Limited
Status: Senior, unsecured
Rating: Unrated
Issue Size: TBD
Format/Docs: Issuer’s S$500M Multicurrency Debt Issuance Programme
Initial Price Guidance: Low 5%, semi-annual, ACT/365 (Fixed)
Tenor: 3-year
Issue Price: 100%
Denomination: SGD250K
Governing Law: Singapore Law
Listing: SGX-ST
Clearing: CDP
Selling Restrictions: Sections 274 and/or 275 of the Singapore SFA
** COURTS SGD 3YRS: UPDATE **
- Courts is a leading retailer in Singapore and Malaysia, with a broad footprint of 73 stores and more than 1.0 million sq. ft. of retail space. Courts generated S$605.3 million of revenue for the nine months ended 31 Dec 2012 and has a healthy balance sheet with strong cash position of S$84.2 million as of 31 Dec 2012.
- Comps:
Aspial 5 2015 103.50, 3.36%
Hong Fok 4.75 2018 102, 4.28%
Biosensor 4.875 2017 104.25, 3.65%
PRIVATE BANK DEMAND WILL BE HUGE ! and clearly a private bank initiative ! The PB rebate is yummy and I bet there will be customers willing to pay a Premium on top of the issue price to secure their share.
It is a household name dear to the hearts of the everyday man and just IPO in Oct last year at 77 cts (current share price 97.5 cts). They were previously owned by private equity in London.
Not to worry that they have SGD 342 mio in debt already (as of last year) and their market cap is only SGD 546 mio versus their MTN size of SGD 500 mio. That is alot of borrowing to do ! But it is, afterall, a consumer credit business and the best part, they are going to Indonesia – the new darling of EM.
Divd yield estimated at 2.3%.
The million dollar question is to buy the equity or the bond ?
This bond issuance, if it is used for refinancing, would be great for the equity given that they are probably borrowing at a higher rate from the banks at the moment. However it would seem this is to facilitate their Indonesian expansion.
Do note that whilst this is a senior bond, it is subordinated to all the secured assets on their books.
Taken from Phillips.
“Per prospectus, Credit is funded mainly by Asset Securitization Programme 2012 with HSBC
- Interest rate fixed at 1) 5.5% per annum for first S$94million, and 2) SOR + Spread for balance amount.
- Programme 2012 will expire on 21 Sep 2018 or in 2017, at the option of HSBC.
- S$105.9 million were drawn down as of date of lodgment of prospectus.
Senior Loan Facility with HSBC, OCBC, and HWANGDBS
- Interest rate of KLIBOR + Spread up to RM350 million. Courts entered into a floating-to-fixed interest rate swap, fixing KLIBOR for borrowings of up to RM 265
million, resulting in effective rate of interest rate of 6.6% per annum up to RM 265 million.
- Facility has a tenor of 5 years. Revolving credit facility in the first 3 years, before converting to fully amortizing term loan facility at the end of third year.
- RM253 million drawn down as at 31 March 2012
Management has guided that they are looking to borrow smaller amounts from two to three banks, as opposed to one bank, to reduce risk of not being able to increase
borrowings or extend loans tenure at favorable rates.”
And another interesting fact is that 57% of their sales in Malaysia is for goods on credit.
My portfolio manager friend (who will not be buying this bond) thinks that this issue will be mainly retail demand. The company is still 2/3 owned by private equity and thus, their interests will be to keep the share price higher for their exit.
But buy anyway if the coupon will hold the 5% handle. Ride the consumer credit boom. Retail demand will be huge and the bond is likely to see a decent rally to 4.75% at least, in my opinion. Books are >200 million now.
Next please …. Ruchi Soya ? Indian soya sauce ?

Any views? Looks interesting?

Issuer:
Courts Asia Limited
Status:
Senior, unsecured
Issue rating:
Unrated
Initial Guidance:
4.75% - 5.5%, semi-annual, ACT/365 (Fixed)
Tenor:
3 Year
Issue Size:
TBA
Issue Date:
23 April 2013
Maturity Date:
23 April 2020
Issue Price:
100%
Details:
SGD250K / Singapore Law / CDP
Joint Bookrunner:
DBS (B&D) / HSBC
Timing:
As early as today's business

[starrynight]

Question of the day for the seniors / bankers in this forum:

In the event of over-subscription, how does the bank / arranger decide which customers get the allocation? Is it a random allocation (unlikely), the fixed income dept decides individual customers who get out of the entire pool, or does each banker get a chunk to split in discretionary manner between his clients?

[starrynight]

Another one for today:

ISSUER:
BOC Aviation Pte. Ltd.
ISSUER RATINGS:
A- stable / BBB stable (Fitch/S&P)
EXPECTED ISSUE RATINGS:
A- / BBB- (Fitch/S&P)
STATUS:
Fixed Rate, Senior Unsecured Notes
FORMAT:
Reg S Registered off the EMTN Programme
ISSUE SIZE:
US$ Benchmark
TENOR:
10 Years
INITIAL PRICE GUIDANCE:
4.55% area (T+285 Area; T~1.7%)
TERMS:
SGX Listing, 200k/1k Denoms, English Law
JOINT-LEADS:
BOCI/Citi/HSBC/JPM
TIMING:
As early as today
RISK RATING:
P4

[cbsh38584]

Another one for today:

ISSUER:
BOC Aviation Pte. Ltd.
ISSUER RATINGS:
A- stable / BBB stable (Fitch/S&P)
EXPECTED ISSUE RATINGS:
A- / BBB- (Fitch/S&P)
STATUS:
Fixed Rate, Senior Unsecured Notes
FORMAT:
Reg S Registered off the EMTN Programme
ISSUE SIZE:
US$ Benchmark
TENOR:
10 Years
INITIAL PRICE GUIDANCE:
4.55% area (T+285 Area; T~1.7%)
TERMS:
SGX Listing, 200k/1k Denoms, English Law
JOINT-LEADS:
BOCI/Citi/HSBC/JPM
TIMING:
As early as today
RISK RATING:
P4

BOC International Holdings Limited, which specializes in investment banking, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of China Ltd.

If U really want to know more about China/HK bond IPO. BOCI will be a better investment banking advisor. The main disadvantage is that there is no leveraging. U need to fly to HK to open an acct with them or get them to come to SG to meet U . Quite a few S'porean have open a acct with them. I think U need min US$100k to open an acct.


rdgs,
Vic

[Laguna]

I just dropped a note to a few of you on copper price


http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html




http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/04/24/silver-and-gold-part-ways-for-now/

The level of copper inventory is building up fast.
For your pleasure reading.

[newbie11]

Wa Lelong. Looks more downside

[cbsh38584]

I just dropped a note to a few of you on copper price


http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html




http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/04/24/silver-and-gold-part-ways-for-now/

The level of copper inventory is building up fast.
For your pleasure reading.

I do believe that all the commodities are manipulated. By the time we see the chart, it is too late to react because most of the stocks have already been hit badly. I believe some derivative product from the issuer like Goldman sach , JP morgan , UBS etc on commodities stock , oil/copper/gold product , base on the pricing. Somehow can see ahead of the turndown.

How Goldman Uses its Forecasts to Manipulate Gold Prices.
How Goldman's Gold Price Manipulation Works.


======================================
FCN on APPLE from the issuer , JP morgan on 12th Oct12.
SPOT US$640
Strike US$576 (90% of US$640)
Trigger level US$440 (72% of US$640).
Tenure = 6 mths
Coupon = 12%

Those investors who did this FCN on 12th Oct'12. Their US$100k will convert to share @ US$576. Today APPLE share is trading US$402. A 30% paper loss. They hv to hold Apple stock for a very long time.



I did FCN on Apple on 16th Jan'13 but at a lower spot price. I am also at risk. If APPLE share closes <US$376. My strike price @US$440 will be triggered. high chance it may close <US$376. Final observation date is 31 May13.

Spot US$494
Strike US$440 (89%)
Trigger level US$376
Tenure 4 mths.
Coupon 10% (US$833/mth base on US$100k)

If Apple stay above US$376 during the 4 mths tenure . My total coupon payment is US$833X4 = US$3332.00 (4 mths.)

rdgs,
Vic

[Laguna]

Hi Vic
How to determine the trigger price ?
If say, within 4 months, most of the time it is above trigger price, but below that price at the end, do you need to pick it up at strike price?

[starrynight]

I applied for 1 lot, got 0. Apparently price is now in region of 102.25 at DBS.

Any views? Looks interesting?

Issuer:
Courts Asia Limited
Status:
Senior, unsecured
Issue rating:
Unrated
Initial Guidance:
4.75% - 5.5%, semi-annual, ACT/365 (Fixed)
Tenor:
3 Year
Issue Size:
TBA
Issue Date:
23 April 2013
Maturity Date:
23 April 2020
Issue Price:
100%
Details:
SGD250K / Singapore Law / CDP
Joint Bookrunner:
DBS (B&D) / HSBC
Timing:
As early as today's business

[starrynight]

Today's issuance:

Issuer:
Raffles Education Corporation Limited
Status:
Senior, unsecured
Issue rating:
Unrated
Initial Guidance:
6.250% area, semi-annual, ACT/365 (Fixed
Tenor:
5 Year
Issue Size:
TBA
Issue Date:
TBA
Maturity Date:
TBA
Issue Price:
100%
Details:
SGD250K / Singapore Law / CDP
Joint Bookrunner:
HSBC / UOB (B&D)
Timing:
As early as today's business

[cbsh38584]

Hi Vic
How to determine the trigger price ?
If say, within 4 months, most of the time it is above trigger price, but below that price at the end, do you need to pick it up at strike price?

1) Early redempltion occurs when during one of the oservation date, Apple closes above US$494 (100% knock out). There are 4 observation date (4 mths tenure).


2) To get the max fixed coupon note ( 4 mths).
Apple share price has to be range bound betweem US$376 - US$493.9.

3) If Apple share fall below the trigger level US$375.99 end of day CLOSED Price. Your strike price @ US$440 turn "LIVE". U need to wait till end of the observation date (31/5) to know whether U capital US$100k will convert to share.

3a). End of observation date (31/5/13) , Apple share price close >$440. You rec U back U US$100k capital + 4 mths coupon.

3b). End of observation date (31/5/13) Apple share close below US$440 (Eg Can be 350 or 390 or 410 or 438 etc)
Your US$100k will convert to Apple share @ $440 even though Apple share is trading at end of observation date (31/5/13) @ $350 or $390 or $410 etc etc).


Anybody who want to do FCN, U must know the stock well & monitor it closely. If not, dont do.

rdgs,
Vic

[cbsh38584]

I applied for 1 lot, got 0. Apparently price is now in region of 102.25 at DBS.

Due to the latest ABSD, I believe the money is flowed into IPO short dated bond. My banker told me that the chances is ZERO unless U apply >$1m to $2m.

Even my Chinese developer Kaise JUNK bond 8.825% (US$200k - LTV 50%) which bought 2 mths ago @101.8. The price has shoot up to 105.5.. Will take profit end of the yr.

rdgs,
Vic

[Laguna]

I applied for 1 lot, got 0. Apparently price is now in region of 102.25 at DBS.

First, you must buy from the book runners. If the quality of issue is good, you can forget about apply for 1 lot, not even 5 lots.

The book runners will give to their institutional clients first like investment banks and there is quite a good spread/fee for the book runners to make.

[Laguna]

Due to the latest ABSD, I believe the money is flowed into IPO short dated bond. My banker told me that the chances is ZERO unless U apply >$1m to $2m.

Even my Chinese developer Kaise JUNK bond 8.825% (US$200k - LTV 50%) which bought 2 mths ago @101.8. The price has shoot up to 105.5.. Will take profit end of the yr.

rdgs,
Vic

Congrats....very good money...
with 50% LTV, the profit is 8.825% + 5.5 times 2......wow!!!!!!!!!!!!

[starrynight]

Thanks for the insight. The tradehaven site said 57% of Courts went to PB clients

First, you must buy from the book runners. If the quality of issue is good, you can forget about apply for 1 lot, not even 5 lots.

The book runners will give to their institutional clients first like investment banks and there is quite a good spread/fee for the book runners to make.

[Laguna]

[quote=cbsh38584
Anybody who want to do FCN, U must know the stock well & monitor it closely. If not, dont do.

rdgs,
Vic[/quote]

The game is too complicated to me.....
BTW, where can I get market info on FCN issued by banks, look like this is a good source to read the market...

thanks in adv

[cbsh38584]

The game is too complicated to me.....
BTW, where can I get market info on FCN issued by banks, look like this is a good source to read the market...

thanks in adv

I keep asking my banker to price FCN on US/HK stock just for my own info. Sometimes, pretend want to do FCN. I keep track (excel file) on all FCN issued by foreign bank even though I did not trade.

Some bankers may not be happy if U keep asking for FCN pricing if no trade is done.

rdgs,
Vic