... u will lose money.Originally Posted by proxon
You pay $100.4, get back $100 par and dividend of $0.255 (dividend of $0.51 pay semi-annually).
p.s. is my calculation correct? seems like wrong
Junior
... u will lose money.
You pay $100.4, get back $100 par and dividend of $0.255 (dividend of $0.51 pay semi-annually).
p.s. is my calculation correct? seems like wrong
Last edited by august; 13-06-13 at 12:43.
Newbie
Brother, it is easy saying than doing.
In 2008, I did not cut loss in time ans lost a lot. In 2011, when everyone talked about euro debt risk, I existed when the stock market started to drop.
However, it resbounded soon and i missed the boat.
This time I choose to ride the wave, it keeps on getting low and low...
Junior
We have given the answer to the SMART Manipulators (say is easy. execute is most difficult part). They control your mind. Majorities dont buy when there is fear. Majorities will buy when there is optimism in the stock mkt.
"It is easy saying than doing". They know what the 98% of the retail investors emotional behaviour. Even you have make the past mistakes. But the manipulators know that OLD HABITS DIE HARD. Retail investors will repeat the same mistakes hundred of times. We need to change our OLD HABITS if we want not to be a LOSER in stock mkt.
Bank of China was @ 2.80 last yr June. I did not buy at FEAR PRICE. Months later, I bought @3.51 when majorities of us have a feels good factor.It went up to 3.82. But sold @3.68. There are so many GOOD stocks to buy in Jun/Jul'12 in Asia mkt. Maybe I hv leveraged to much on bond last yr that I prefer not to buy more stocks.
It take a very long time (years) to learn to avoid our OLD HABITS.
Once U are in the stock mkt long enough & has gone through the 97/98 & 08/09 crisis. U will know why PATIENCE is very important. HERD instinct & GREED will disaster to us.
I just want to highlight the pitfalls in investments so that the retail investor dont repeat the mistakes I made for so many years. I am still learn to control my OLD HABITs. Making less mistakes after 08/09 crisis.
rdgs,
Vic
Junior
thumb up for this. I read many many books on the behavioural issue of traders and investors. But when you are in the game, it is totally different.
I gave up as a trader as I simply cannot control my emotions. Life is much better after giving up as a trader.
Liquidated 67% of my bond holdings two months back, and now awaiting for opportunities....perhaps moving 1/3 around end of this month, and 2/3 in July. All in equities. But this trip shall be a short trip of two - three months to exit.
Junior
If U decide to join private or priority banking. U need to be extra careful on the risky derivative product they recommend. The bank usually come out ELN/FCN etc during the rising mkt when the price is high. Even Dual currency investment (DCI or PCI), it wouldnt help U to hedge against inflation if U are not familar with FX movements.
Many clients got stuck when they did FCN at very high price & get converted.
FCN on APPLE - capital converted to APPLE @US$548 (now 443)
FCN China shenhua - capital converted to ShenHua @HK$33 (now 23.5)
FCN on ABX - capital converted to ABX @ US$37 (now 20).
ect etc etc
There are some Good FCN that get Knock out. But U just need one bad FCN trade to make U lose alot of money & become a long term investor. It may take >1 yr to go back to your purchase for those bad FCN trade or never at all.
rdgs,
Vic
Newbie
I just wonder is there any recourse for investors who get hit with bad news such as hundreds of million bad/doubtful debts shortly (within 10 days) from a single loan after the start of ELN/FCN for a bank.
Newbie
Highly unlikely. Their legalese will absolve them of much liability, and in any case, most people will not have the time nor money to take them on in a lawsuit.
Newbie
Hi Starrynight,
Thank you so much for kind feedback.
Newbie
Today's issuance. First one after the bond "micro crash" the past few weeks. Must be either desperate, or someone just had to be brave:
Issuer
Caterpillar Financial Services Corporation
Rating
A2/A/A (all stable)
Currency
CNH
Size
CNH benchmark
Issue Format
Reg S Registered
Pricing
TBC - 3.25% area, 17-Jun-13
Settlement
26 June 2013 (T+7)
Maturity
26-Jun-15
Coupon
[3.25% area], Semi-Annual, Act/365
Bookrunners
ANZ, BofAML, HSBC (B&D), MUS
Docs
EMTN / CNH 1m + 500k / Lux listing
Governing Law
New York
Timing
Books open, today's business
Risk Rating
P2 (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)
Junior
Oei Hong Leong loses $1b, takes Citigroup to court .
Businessman Oei Hong Leong - dubbed the 'man with the Midas touch' - lost a whopping $1Billion on foreign exchange & US Treasury bond transactions .
While he has fully paid off these losses, he is now suing Citigroup's private banking arm in the High Court for negligence and misrepresentation, legal documents seen by The Straits Times reveal.
U need to be famous & powerful investors to fight against the foreign banks. Small investors like us will never able to win. You need Money & time & solid proof. There are some exceptional cases where there are real proof that the banker really mislead investors. Example a old man/woman does not know English at all & tell them the product they invest is like a Fixed deposit. They will be compensated.
In 2006, Vietnam was a rising star & their stock mkt was performing very well. The foreign bank start to introduce NEW emerging mkt unit trust to the retail investors to invest in Vietnam @ par $1.00. The price today us <0.4 after 7 yrs. Likely to stay below $1 for another 7 yrs.
rdgs,
Vic
Newbie
Hi CBSH,
You are 200% accurate to be very very careful especially with Private Banking.
They have indeed set very loop-sided standards like above 65yrs old, non-English educated, Sec.2 education & below.
Thanks for your feedback too.
Junior
My niece works at a foreign bank, COMPLIANCE DEPT. One of her responsiblity is to make sure that when the clients have made any investment product. It must match his/her risk profile accessment done by their own bankers. It is a very boring job where my niece need to work everyday late night without overtime pay. Staff turnover rate is very high despite they are being reasonably paid well.
So the chances that the clients who lose money in risky derivative investment & want to suit against the bank in court & win is almost ZERO.
rdgs,
Vic
Newbie
Today's issuance:
Issuer
ICICI Bank Limited, acting through its Dubai Branch
Issuer Rating:
Baa2 (stable) / BBB- (negative) (Moody's / S&P)
Expected Issue Rating:
Baa2 / BBB- (Moody's / S&P)
Status:
Fixed Rate, Senior, Unsecured
Format:
Reg S, Registered
Tenor:
3 year
Size:
CNH Benchmark
Initial Price Guidance:
4.125% area
Clearing:
Euroclear / Clearstream
Denoms:
CNY 1,000,000 x CNY 10,000
Issue Date:
TBD
Price
TBD
Maturity Date:
TBD
Joint Lead Managers :
HSBC (B&D), Standard Chartered Bank
Timing:
Books open, expect as early as today
Risk Rating:
3 ( 1 to 5, 5 being the highest)
Newbie
It was a very ironic thing that I was the one who advised my sister private banker to sell her own junk bonds before 22nd May & she didn't listened. Of course, everyone knows what happened after this date.
I had a 6 mio SGD bond portfolio but reduced it to 4 mio by clearing all leverage positions. The rest were bought with cash & relatively shorter dated issues. 3, 5 & the longest 7 years. Impact so far still pretty ok as they are mostly still above my buy price.
Junior
This thread is full of golden advise and its free. To all would be millioners, better read and thank Vic.
Newbie
Yes, great thanks to Vic for sharing his valuable insights on investment.
He has taken the patience not only to share his experiences but also the pains to provide those details at great length.
Junior
But one thing that Vic hasn't explain to me, how he manage to resist those beautiful RM (relationship manager)?. I failed miserably, after she stroke my ego, I eat anything out of her hand.
Newbie
Then you must find a not so chioh RM....mine is so so only..
Yah must thanks to all the master sifu
Junior
If U hv been in bond for the last 3 yrs. U will do reasonably well as compare to those invest in equities with leveraging on bond. Your bond yearly coupon should be >S$300k.
When investing in good short dated bond, investor likely to be much less affected by the mkt volalility as compare to equities.
Rec'd a early redemption letter from Petra food bond 5% month ago. A 3% (103) incentive will be given to bond investors holders who agree to the early redemption of the bond. Thinking switching to Cheung Kong Senior Perp 5.125% callable 2016 as part of my permanent holding. Price is now 96.
It took 6 months for STI index to go up from 3150 (Dec12) to 3450 (May13).It just take 6 weeks for STI index to go down from 3450 to 3150.
Not many investors can make big money in a very volatile mkt in the last 3 yrs.
rdgs,
Vic
Newbie
Vic,
For the early redemption of the Petra bonds, must all / 75% of the bondholders agree, or is it a private arrangement between issuer and bondholder?
Thanks,
Junior
According to my banker, it need 75% of the bondhlders to agree. We were given extra $2500 CONSENT FEE (bonus) after >75% bondholders agreed to it. We will wait for Petra food to let us know the final redemption date.
rdgs,
Vic
Newbie
Congrats on your Petra bonds.
I've been in bonds for the last 5-6 years. Yes, barely cross 300K Gross but Net is <300K after all expenses. Don't know what've gotten to the head, I've even speculated on Barclays 7.75% Coco bonds in April but sold them exactly on 21 May at 103.75%. Today I think that it could be around 96. I would not ever touch coco bonds again.
imo, try not to touch Cheung Kong as it does not c/w step-up interest. I'm advising as a previous holder. Li Ka Shing is a very shrewd man. Too shrewd to do business with him without getting the short end of the stick. I sold 500K CK bonds at almost 99 in late March (some capital loss before accrued interest).
Currently I've Courts 4.75% (1 lot thru' placement) & still considering Biosensor 4.875% due to their short tenor 3 & 4yrs respectively.
Junior
I only start to invest in Bond in 2010. I start off with SG blue chip name like DBS Perp 4.7% (LTV60%) , capland ,2.95% (LTV 50%) , capitalmall trust, 2% (LTV50%) etc with borrowed money.
I later switch out to non SG blue chip to get better yield like Banyan tree 6.25% (LTV60%), Lippomall 5.875% (LTV 60%), Petra food 5%(LTV 70%) , Cheung Kong Perp 6.625% (LTV60%- bought@ 94), etc.
By 2011, I am quite familar in investing bond. So I switch more to high yield Chinese developer bond like Shui ON SG bond 8% (LTV 50%) ,Gazprobank Perp 7.8% (LTV 50%) China central real estate SG bond 10.75%(LTV 50%) , Evergrande CNY Bond 7.5% (LTV 50%) etc.
In early Jan 2013, my bond holding est S$3.5m with borrowed money. I did a calculation that my coupon est NETT >$260k base on my S$3.5m bond holding. I started to reduce especially my Perp & straight bond Now my current bond holding is S$2.3m.
I have OLAM USD 5.8%. Now trading <90. Need to hold till maturity till 2017. I hv 2 bad ELN trade 10% drop. Never expect HK to drop so fast. Need to hold till end of the yr.
rdgs,
Vic
Junior
Women are better investors
==================
Women were more likely to be less "GREEDY" than men when come to investing. In the area of behavioural finance, It have found that women trade less frequently and hold less volatile portfolios. Women just want a stable income.
When come to investing, Women will look in the RISK factor as 1st priority. Once the risk is acceptable to them, they will look into the RETURN.They may expect lower returns, watch out for risks, and be willing to sit out for the long term. Men tend to see big PROFIT as 1st priority & sometimes blind by the high risk product they invested. Good investing means that when you are aware of what you don’t know, you steer clear.
women tend to see wealth as a source of security for the family, rather than an opportunity to get richer.They're less interested in taking chances (Risk) when they do have money. Men, meanwhile, are more likely to be confident in taking risky decisions.
Men see wealth as a way to get richer; women see it as a means of security. They realize the money they make goes to support their families, and this makes them less likely to take unnecessary or dangerous risks with their investments. Men tend to have their eye on “more” wealth, while women want “enough” wealth to bring them security.
Women take Less Risk as they are more prone to stress than their male. They don't want to engage in the anxieties of on-the-fly trading, another factor that contributes to their more conservative, and ultimately more successful, investment strategies.
Women Are Patient.
women are more patient with their existing investments, and if they consider a change to their portfolio they are also more likely to consult with a financial advisor first. Men are less patient for a +ve outcome from their investments and more likely to modify their portfolio if they view it is underperforming
Impatience
Men tend to be overconfident about their ability to pick stocks that can beat the market.
etc etc etc.
rdgs,
Vic
Newbie
From the news:
Tat Hong Holdings has established a $500m multicurrency
medium term note (MTN) programme. Net proceeds will
be used for general corporate purposes, including
refinancing of existing borrowings, and financing capital
expenditure and general working capital of the group.
Newbie
As I started bond investment in 2007, Sept 2008 was a hard hit with Lehman crisis. I was holding both OCBC 4.2% & 5.1%. Both dropped to 71/72 & 85 respectively.
On a hindsight, it was also a golden investment opportunity but I wasn't experienced enough at that time to convert them into OCBC stocks. A $10 stock reduced to >$4 in 2008. "A Real Bad Miss".
Hence I intend to use the above strategy as "Plan B" should there be a heavy correction in Bonds market (ie. 10%). This will also allowed bond investors to be more stress-free. Bonds investors could also take a more neutral stand to severe market movement. Today's much shorter economic cycle is actually to investors' advantage.
Junior
Aiyo
this is the first time see you using RED, BOLD, BIG fonts....
markets are still bad...
anyway, should be about time soon....
Music of the night
investment is just about maximizing profit + avoiding regular drawdown in the long term, it is more to do with "man of steel behaviour" rather than whether is men/women .. if women take less risk then how to maximize profit?? the key judgement call is when to take appropriate amount of risk, managing it along the way by increasing/cutting positions
for example last night 5y UST spiked to 1.25%, what are u going to do with your bond positions?
1. Do nothing and wait for another signal?
2. Do something now?
3. Already done b4 Bernie speech?
Last edited by phantom_opera; 20-06-13 at 11:25.
Ride at your own risk !!!
Junior
Your patience is rewarded. Now see whether U can overcome the fear to buy.
More cash = less fear to buy.
Some cash = hestiate to buy.
Not enough cash = fear to add in more position.
All invested & no cash left = regret buying at high floor.
rdgs,
Vic
Newbie
long PSI, short STI.
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