BOND THREAD

[Laguna]

I started liquidating my bonds and equity (main Sg REITS) about 3 months back. Trimmed down 2/3 of bond position, balance with 1/3 on high yield and trimmed about 1/2 of my equity position. Thereafter, I have been sitting on the cash till now.

This round of correction comes in on time.

My reading :
This round of correction should last around 6-8 weeks from late May (22 May thereabout). The rate of correction from now would still be quite steep of another 5%.
Thereafter, I think market should take a rebound of 2/3 of the recent loss for another 2-3 months and then side way till end of the year. I would not expect the STI/HSI to go higher than this year high.

I will be buying some HSI index future tomorrow at around 19,900+ for a short term trade.

[bargain hunter]

gold also crashing now.

[bargain hunter]

sis, isn't it a bit too early to buy the hsi futures tomorrow if u expect another 5% downside?

I started liquidating my bonds and equity (main Sg REITS) about 3 months back. Trimmed down 2/3 of bond position, balance with 1/3 on high yield and trimmed about 1/2 of my equity position. Thereafter, I have been sitting on the cash till now.

This round of correction comes in on time.

My reading :
This round of correction should last around 6-8 weeks from late May (22 May thereabout). The rate of correction from now would still be quite steep of another 5%.
Thereafter, I think market should take a rebound of 2/3 of the recent loss for another 2-3 months and then side way till end of the year. I would not expect the STI/HSI to go higher than this year high.

I will be buying some HSI index future tomorrow at around 19,900+ for a short term trade.

[phantom_opera]

Dow futures -170 at 14950

The question is whether support at 148xx can hold ..

At the same time PBOC is printing less money

Now we have the real test, does the Emperor wear any clothes?

If u are US retirees still holding stocks, do u sell or hold?

10y UST almost touched 2.5% intraday ... looks like my target is within reach .. if overshot to 3%, it will create extreme turmoil

[amk]

sis, isn't it a bit too early to buy the hsi futures tomorrow if u expect another 5% downside?

Ok what, I also started buying

[Laguna]

sis, isn't it a bit too early to buy the hsi futures tomorrow if u expect another 5% downside?

Why you called me sis?
Very short term trade, day trade

From astrology point of view, today and tomorrow are very bad days.

[Laguna]

gold also crashing now.

It is testing the better support at 1300
But the stronger floor should be at 1200

[Allthepies]

now should sell and wait for the bottom....

[Laguna]

now should sell and wait for the bottom....

Let's us know when is the bottom please

[phantom_opera]

Dow is testing support at 14,8xx now

Frankly speaking, I am looking at 14k

[phantom_opera]

HSI futures is testing 20k ... Laguna's day trade chance seems to arrive sooner

[DC33_2008]

Gold has gone down to US$1294. Any more downside? 1200?

[Laguna]

HSI futures is testing 20k ... Laguna's day trade chance seems to arrive sooner

It is almost 400 points of discount to cash market.

[Werther]

It is almost 400 points of discount to cash market.

Hello Laguna,

I think your are the stock guru... Lucky you didn't buy last few weeks...u may be right, to buy towards end of the month...

[newbie11]

S*&p testing 1600

[radha08]

Why you called me sis?
Very short term trade, day trade

From astrology point of view, today and tomorrow are very bad days.

ha ha good old laguna sis/bro

[bargain hunter]

ok lah, join u guys and buy lah.

Ok what, I also started buying

[bargain hunter]

HSI futures bottoms out at 19880 and chiongs. salute laguna!

[Laguna]

HSI futures bottoms out at 19880 and chiongs. salute laguna!

I don't make calls nowadays to others.
But itchy hands this time.

[cbsh38584]

On Tue , SC sent clients a WoELN (Worst of ELN) ideas which they think it is worth the risk to do. The derivative product WoELN look very attractive base on it 10% payout + potential upside gain. The issuer is from UBS.

Spot price on Tues for 941(HK77.50) + 0857(HK8.5)+0883(HK13.62).
3 mths
Barrier 84% :84% of $77.50(CN mobile), $8.5(Petro CN) & $13.62c(Cnnoc).
Strike price : 96% will be triggered if one of the above stock close<84%.
No Knock out since it is a ELN.
Yield 10%p.a for this ELN.

The attractive part is that if all the 3 counters close above the spot price at the end of 3 mths. U will get 10% payout + capital appreciation from any of the counter that is above the spot price.

Example. At the end of 3rd mth, 0941 close 81.37 (5%) above the intial spot price of 77.59 . Petro china 0857 @6% & Cnooc .0883@ 7% above the initial spot price. U will get extra 5% (least best performing stk) + 10%pa from the ELN payout.

Clients may think it is attractive since the HK H-shares hv been underforming for so long. Chances it will move up above the spot price by early Oct. 10% payout + potential capital appreciation by early Oct.

From what I see, the issuer add in the capital appreciate part to entice ignorant investors to go for this WoEN derivative.I think this is a bad trade.
Petro China or Cnooc may drop below 84%.

It is better not to use all your cash to buy at one go. Stagger buying will be a better strategy.

rdgs,
Vic

[Laguna]

On Tue , SC sent clients a WoELN (Worst of ELN) ideas which they think it is worth the risk to do. The derivative product WoELN look very attractive base on it 10% payout + potential upside gain. The issuer is from UBS.

Spot price on Tues for 941(HK77.50) + 0857(HK8.5)+0883(HK13.62).
3 mths
Barrier 84% :84% of $77.50(CN mobile), $8.5(Petro CN) & $13.62c(Cnnoc).
Strike price : 96% will be triggered if one of the above stock close<84%.
No Knock out since it is a ELN.
Yield 10%p.a for this ELN.

The attractive part is that if all the 3 counters close above the spot price at the end of 3 mths. U will get 10% payout + capital appreciation from any of the counter that is above the spot price.

Example. At the end of 3rd mth, 0941 close 81.37 (5%) above the intial spot price of 77.59 . Petro china 0857 @6% & Cnooc .0883@ 7% above the initial spot price. U will get extra 5% (least best performing stk) + 10%pa from the ELN payout.

Clients may think it is attractive since the HK H-shares hv been underforming for so long. Chances it will move up above the spot price by early Oct. 10% payout + potential capital appreciation by early Oct.

From what I see, the issuer add in the capital appreciate part to entice ignorant investors to go for this WoEN derivative.I think this is a bad trade.
Petro China or Cnooc may drop below 84%.

It is better not to use all your cash to buy at one go. Stagger buying will be a better strategy.

rdgs,
Vic

Thanks Vic
The bankers made a very good calls to cover their own shit.
But as investors, one cannot listen to them all the time. Need to do our own work.
Like two months back, they asked me to short US$ and long A$. I gave them a very hard scolding for not able to read the fundamental.

I am still holding on to cash, the show is not over yet.

[phantom_opera]

PSI is worse than yesterday ..


REITS/junks are slapped left & right ... most REITS already below 200dMA

[amk]

basically you sell a put on ALL 3 counters at 84% strike, for a mere premium of 2.5% (so-called 10% PA coupon is just the premium massaged).

the upside (call) is negligible.

this is chop carrot head.

[amk]

PSI is worse than yesterday ..

lighten up a bit, just for entertainment: type "PSI SING Index" on your bloomberg you can even have intraday, historical vol, etc, everything.

[Laguna]

PSI is worse than yesterday ..

My girl booked the air ticket last month for the coming long weekend in HK next week to enjoy our fresh air. I have to tell her that our air is worst than HK now.

[phantom_opera]

they need to have a few more categories

> 301 hazardous
> 350 extremely hazardous
> 400 hide in bombshell
> 500 stop work/stop school

next time condo design must have anti-haze HS

[cbsh38584]

As I started bond investment in 2007, Sept 2008 was a hard hit with Lehman crisis. I was holding both OCBC 4.2% & 5.1%. Both dropped to 71/72 & 85 respectively.

On a hindsight, it was also a golden investment opportunity but I wasn't experienced enough at that time to convert them into OCBC stocks. A $10 stock reduced to >$4 in 2008. "A Real Bad Miss".

Hence I intend to use the above strategy as "Plan B" should there be a heavy correction in Bonds market (ie. 10%). This will also allowed bond investors to be more stress-free. Bonds investors could also take a more neutral stand to severe market movement. Today's much shorter economic cycle is actually to investors' advantage.

My bond holding contribute 80% of the total portfolio. Year to date(Jan to Jun13). My bond profit is S$170k. If I will to hold till Dec13. It will be est S$262k due to the coupon payment. I am thinking whether to sell away some of my bond & switch some to equity later. I know once I sell away my high yield SGD bond 6% to 10.75% due 2016, I may or may not able to buy back at a good price. High yield SG high bond still above par.

I am also thinking of switch ABN SG 4.7% to Shui ON SG bond 8% 2015. But hestitate to add in another lot. Still searching to rebalance my portfolio after a big sell down.

rdgs,
Vic

[spring77]

It is good to keep 2016 short-dated bonds since the coupons are already locked-on. I'll only switch from bonds to equities in a heavy market correction.

Otherwise, we have cash generator machine (ie. our bonds) that produce hundreds of thousand annually to plough into equities. The market will be always there for us.

A million in bonds is not a lot but a million in equity is magnify many times.

My bond holding contribute 80% of the total portfolio. Year to date(Jan to Jun13). My bond profit is S$170k. If I will to hold till Dec13. It will be est S$262k due to the coupon payment. I am thinking whether to sell away some of my bond & switch some to equity later. I know once I sell away my high yield SGD bond 6% to 10.75% due 2016, I may or may not able to buy back at a good price. High yield SG high bond still above par.

I am also thinking of switch ABN SG 4.7% to Shui ON SG bond 8% 2015. But hestitate to add in another lot. Still searching to rebalance my portfolio after a big sell down.

rdgs,
Vic

[cbsh38584]

It is good to keep 2016 short-dated bonds since the coupons are already locked-on. I'll only switch from bonds to equities in a heavy market correction.

Otherwise, we have cash generator machine (ie. our bonds) that produce hundreds of thousand annually to plough into equities. The market will be always there for us.

A million in bonds is not a lot but a million in equity is magnify many times.

Thank for your valuable input.
I have been through 97/98 & 08/09 crisis. But not the bond crisis in 1994. Hv no idea what it like. So I am very careful in holding more bond especially toward 2014.

Are U aware TradeHaven bond forum website? This guy is quite knowledgeable in bond.

rdgs,
Vic

[princess_morbucks]

REITS/junks are slapped left & right ... most REITS already below 200dMA

Hot money flow back to USA cos hedge fund managers worried that interest rate in USA will rise. These managers probably invested mainly in reits cos of relatively high yield. So they pull out of reits to return money to USA.

Later when they realise that the interest rate is not going to rise as yet, they will come back and reinvest here, and likely put their money in reits again.

Another scenario is China... if they also decide to have QE, then some of the hot money will flow into here, especially the stock market where there is no restriction.

So my take is that reits will still continue to do well.

Lol..... this is my conclusion from what I learnt today.