BOND THREAD

[cbsh38584]

Brudder Vic, my sentiments is the same. It's just that I really cannot articulate so well on financial instruments like u...

But I can articulate on properties...

That's why I advocate CASH as part of total asset portfolio. In case of bonds margin call, rights issue, etc ....

For property top up, bro, don't believe people who say there are... It's pure bull shit. They may ask top up if u miss a few payment... But they will never ask top up on general... U know the impact to the market if they do a mass top up????

Long dated bonds dangerous 'now'. But if they fall to a very low level, I am going in..... Why??? It will not be leveraged and it is spare cash and he yield to maturity will be high due to low value...

Thanks for sharing... I also share a bit lar... But I think u already know all this.

If the short term credit crunch will to happen in the next 2 yrs. I may look into

1) Yen (Carry trade) likely to strengthen. I may borrow Yen to convert to Aus$ to buy Aus bond. I was offered to buy General electric bond AUS$ bond @ 10% (US$0.70 = Aus$1)) during Lehman crisis. But dare not. The next time around, I will seriously look into it if it happen again.

2) May buy Cheung Kong SGD 5.25% Senior Perp bond if the yield to maturity is 6.5% to 7% (Price may need to drop <80. Now 94). It may be one of my permanent holding.

3) NTUC Insurance SGD 3.65% bond due Aug 27 (Rating A3). It only drop slightly below 100. LTV is 85%.

Too many good corporate name to list down Etc etc.


rdgs,
vic

[chestnut]

Brudder, thaw why I say must hold cash.... During black swan, say interest shoot 10%... Hahahaha. Perpetual bonds will dive man... Making ytm solid w/o leveraging... Go in swoop and can get lifetime @ say 7% coupon.

During bad times, best time to buy but many no balls. Why? Never keep enough money.

Give u example. If u have 2 m spare cash, when black swan happen, how much will u take out to play????

If u have 100k, how much will u take out to play and is there even anything to play or u must show hand????

Cheers bro...

Someone keep saying interest rate may hit 10%... If it doesn't happen, I am still vested, so no prob, if it happens, I will be like an eagle swooping for good deals.... Hahahaha bonds will be the first thing... After all financial instruments... When u start making money, then go into props...

Props are the laggard...

If the short term credit crunch will to happen in the next 2 yrs. I may look into

1) Yen (Carry trade) likely to strengthen. I may borrow Yen to convert to Aus$ to buy Aus bond. I was offered to buy General electric bond AUS$ bond @ 10% (US$0.70 = Aus$1)) during Lehman crisis. But dare not. The next time around, I will seriously look into it if it happen again.

2) May buy Cheung Kong SGD 5.25% Senior Perp bond if the yield to maturity is 6.5% to 7% (Price may need to drop <80. Now 94). It may be one of my permanent holding.

3) NTUC Insurance SGD 3.65% bond due Aug 27 (Rating A3). It only drop slightly below 100. LTV is 85%.

Too many good corporate name to list down Etc etc.


rdgs,
vic

[starrynight]

Issuer:
Swiber Capital Pte. Ltd.
Obligor:
Swiber Holdings Limited ("Swiber")
Wakeel:
Swiber Holdings Limited (in its capacity as agent (wakeel) of the Issuer
Status:
Direct, unconditional, unsubordinated and unsecured Trust Certificates
Rating:
Unrated
Issue Size:
SGD150 million
Series Islamic Principle:
Wakalah Bi Al-Istithmar
Use of proceeds:
Mainly for refinancing existing borrowings and remaining for financing working capital and general corporate purposes of Swiber and its subsidiaries
Format:
Reg S, S274 & S275 of Singapore SFA
Tenor:
5Yr
Initial Price Guidance:
6 - 6.5% area
Payment:
Semi-annual, Actual/365
Listing:
SGX-ST
Details:
SGD 250,000 / Multicurrency Islamic Trust Certificates Issuance Programme / Singapore Law
Clearing:
CDP
Series Shariah Adviser:
Maybank Islamic Bank Berhad
Joint Bookrunners:
DBS and Maybank Kim Eng Securities
Timing:
This week's business, as early as today
Indic Risk Rating:
TBA

[Werther]

Hello cbsh

I tried to send you MSG but yr inbox is full. Thanks.

[cbsh38584]

Hello cbsh

I tried to send you MSG but yr inbox is full. Thanks.

Have deleted all my msg.
FYI . some recommendation from bank. Check with U banker whether the risk is acceptable to all of U. This is a Nov 2014 bond, and for investors who feel that they will not default in the next 1.5years.

Tata Steel 4.5% USD bond . 100.875 indicative offer price
YTM at cost : 3.8
LTV: 70%
Assuming cost of financing to be 1.5%pa
Leverage YTM: Approx 9%


FYI, Tata steel 4.95% SGD bond due 2023. The price has dropped from 100 to 90. YTM 6.5% without leveraging. Too risky as the due date is 2023.


rdgs,
Vic

[cbsh38584]

Sold my Old citi Pacific 7.785 USD Perp bond @99 in Apr13 (now 93).

Just bought the new citi pacific 8.625% USD Perp issued(price=100) in May 2013 @ 94.75. Took the calculated risk to buy & will sell within 1 yr.

Citi pacific 8.625% USD Perp bond is one of the top 5 holdings for UOB united Asian bond fund (unit trust) as of 28th June 2013 report.

rdgs,
Vic

[cbsh38584]

Sold my Old citi Pacific 7.785 USD Perp bond @99 in Apr13 (now 93).

Just bought the new citi pacific 8.625% USD Perp issued(price=100) in May 2013 @ 94.75. Took the calculated risk to buy & will sell within 1 yr.

Citi pacific 8.625% USD Perp bond is one of the top 5 holdings for UOB united Asian bond fund (unit trust) as of 28th June 2013 report.

rdgs,
Vic

Citi Pacific 8.625% USD Perp Bond with Step up coupon , callable 2018 . Federal Reserve US Note Treasury Constant Maturity 5 Year Index + 7.816%.

LTV 60% (Cash needed US200kX0.4= US$80k).

Coupon/year = US$17250. (8.625% X200k)

Borrowing cost est 1.5% (US$120k X1.5%) = US$1800/yr

Net coupon US$17250 - US$1800 = US$15450.
Effective yield = US$15450/80000 = 19.3%
Risk = HIGH


rdgs,
Vic

[hopeful]

hi vic, are you still holding on to your bond positions?

[yowetan]

hi vic, are you still holding on to your bond positions?

Hi hopeful...what should I do now?

[cbsh38584]

hi vic, are you still holding on to your bond positions?

I am still holding to my bond just to collect coupon. By end of 2013, my total bond profit will be S$280k. Last year (2012) was S$160k. Year 2014 will be est 180k as I hv reduced my bond holding especially Perp bond without step up. Investment grade short dated straight bond are still in the money. As I have said since 2011, Investment grade short dated straight bond can be one of your investment portfolio. No junk bond or Perp bond for retail investors & no borrowing.

My USD/SGD borrowing cost was slightly drop from 1.06 to 1.03 even thought 10Y treasury yield is 2.88%. Majorities investors in stock investing are not making money.

rdgs,
vic

[phantom_opera]

I am still holding to my bond just to collect coupon. By end of 2013, my total bond profit will be S$280k. Last year (2012) was S$160k. Year 2014 will be est 180k as I hv reduced my bond holding especially Perp bond without step up. Investment grade short dated straight bond are still in the money. As I have said since 2011, Investment grade short dated straight bond can be one of your investment portfolio. No junk bond or Perp bond for retail investors & no borrowing.

My USD/SGD borrowing cost was slightly drop from 1.06 to 1.03 even thought 10Y treasury yield is 2.88%. Majorities investors in stock investing are not making money.

rdgs,
vic

it is not fair to compare stock vs bond like that, it is like compare CCR to OCR, most of the time u need both for a portfolio

[cbsh38584]

Straits Times Index increasingly bearish; approaching ema death cross. Be extra careful.

A death cross is a technical indicator that occurs when a stock's short-term moving average falls below its long-term moving average.

rdgs,
Vic

[spring77]

Hi Vic,

How are your FCN/ELN doing so far?
I'm very fortunate to walk away from my 3mths ELN for very little gain that matured just today.

At the peak of the loss, it was 16% loss on capital back in June.
A really very important lesson learnt.

[cbsh38584]

Hi Vic,

How are your FCN/ELN doing so far?
I'm very fortunate to walk away from my 3mths ELN for very little gain that matured just today.

At the peak of the loss, it was 16% loss on capital back in June.
A really very important lesson learnt.

.

Below are my ELN/FCN counters. All get K.O except China Shenhua. But I eventually sold off at a profit (due to dividend HK1.09).

ELN China Shenhua
ELN PetroChina
FCN China mobile/China Telcom
FCN BHP/Rio Tinto.

During the May/Jun big correction. It drop almost >20% to 30% below my strike price. My ELN/FCN strike price is almost at the 52 weeks low pricing. Yet it drop >20 to 30%. Shenhua strike price @25.60. It drop to $18+.
Coupon is only $2.7K. But paper loss is >$40k for only shenhua counter alone. Luckily it goes up $25+. Not worth the risk to do ELN/FCN. I will stop doing ELN/FCN for now. I rather buy direct if there is another big correction.

My portfolio consist of
80% bond
10% equity
10% private equity

I do have cash on hand. But I borrow >$1.5m.

rdgs,
Vic

[phantom_opera]

STI is indeed softening technically.. just cut my position...

[spring77]

Hi Vic, thanks for sharing.

My one & only ELN counter is China Construction Bank.
Sold today at 5.84, breakeven at 5.81 (after 2% coupon)
Back then spot at 6.50, strike at 5.93.
Lowest reach at 5.00 back in Jun.
Spot 6.50 is almost at 52 weeks high of 6.70.

The real sour note was the spot c/w 0.34 dividends that was not conveyed to me.
I was caught short when strike price is after dividends. Hence the real spot price was really only 6.16 - only 3.7% buffer from spot price, not some 9% as published on paper.

Could only blame on my own careless & complacency. I really deserved to lose money if not for my luck.
I will never touch this type of investment again.

You have correctly pointed out in buying direct from the market.

.

Below are my ELN/FCN counters. All get K.O except China Shenhua. But I eventually sold off at a profit (due to dividend HK1.09).

ELN China Shenhua
ELN PetroChina
FCN China mobile/China Telcom
FCN BHP/Rio Tinto.

During the May/Jun big correction. It drop almost >20% to 30% below my strike price. My ELN/FCN strike price is almost at the 52 weeks low pricing. Yet it drop >20 to 30%. Shenhua strike price @25.60. It drop to $18+.
Coupon is only $2.7K. But paper loss is >$40k for only shenhua counter alone. Luckily it goes up $25+. Not worth the risk to do ELN/FCN. I will stop doing ELN/FCN for now. I rather buy direct if there is another big correction.

My portfolio consist of
80% bond
10% equity
10% private equity

I do have cash on hand. But I borrow >$1.5m.

rdgs,
Vic

[cbsh38584]

Hi Vic, thanks for sharing.

My one & only ELN counter is China Construction Bank.
Sold today at 5.84, breakeven at 5.81 (after 2% coupon)
Back then spot at 6.50, strike at 5.93.
Lowest reach at 5.00 back in Jun.
Spot 6.50 is almost at 52 weeks high of 6.70.

The real sour note was the spot c/w 0.34 dividends that was not conveyed to me.
I was caught short when strike price is after dividends. Hence the real spot price was really only 6.16 - only 3.7% buffer from spot price, not some 9% as published on paper.

Could only blame on my own careless & complacency. I really deserved to lose money if not for my luck.
I will never touch this type of investment again.

You have correctly pointed out in buying direct from the market.

B4 I do ELN/FCN, I will ask them when is the dividend payout. I will make ensure my ELN/FCN expires b4 ex-dividend just like Shenhua energy.

I did ELN HK2823 @10.2. It gone down to 8+. Now 9.5. My HK$500k was converted to HK2823 (A-share). Now paper loss is 7%+. Will keep this Shanghai A share index HK2823 .

Currently holding only Hk2823 & Mapletree GCC (CPF small amt) which I bought last Friday.


I NEVER trust my banker. I don't trust their research team on FX & stock analysis. l I trust only FEAR INDEX. I don't go for foreigner hedge fund as they are using our money to short the stocks we own.


rdgs,
vic

[amk]

I remember posting n this thread some time ago: all these ELx products are simple call puts sold to you at a real low premium. Unless you truly understand derivatives, you are better off taking a simple position. Otherwise it's just gambling.

[phantom_opera]

Once I asked a frequent, highly educated Toto buyer what is the probability of winning Toto ... he said 50/50 (u either win or u lose)

[cbsh38584]

I remember posting n this thread some time ago: all these ELx products are simple call puts sold to you at a real low premium. Unless you truly understand derivatives, you are better off taking a simple position. Otherwise it's just gambling.

ELN/FCN is really not worth doing. I did HK stock ELN Shenhua energy for tenure period 2 mths (Apr13) amt HK1000k (sgd$161k). The coupon I rec is SGD$2700. The strike price HK$25.6 (close to 52 wk low). In May/June, the shenhua price drop from HK$27 to HK$18+. Paper loss >SGD$40k base on HK$18+ pricing. Coupon SGD$2.7k Vs paper loss SGD$40k+. Risk/Reward for doing ELN is extremely not worth it. Luckily, in Aug13, price goes up >HK$25+. I cut loss & still make >$2700 due to the dividend of HK$1.09.

Just a few days ago, I get my banker to quote me again ELN on Petrochina as it has not recovered since June13. Surprisingly, the yield is higher than I did 4 mths ago. I suspect Petrochina may hv some not so good news. I did not execute the order. Today news from reuters that China investigates more top PetroChina executives over corruption. This could be the reason why the PetroChina yield given is much higher than 4 mths ago.


So avoid derivative product ELN/FCN as well as dual currency (DCI) or Premium currency investment (PCI).

rdgs,
Vic

[chestnut]

OPPORTUNITY IS COMING....

Get ready to load up.....

Stocks are going to drop big time Liao.... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Now let's see who has balls of steel.... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[chestnut]

Vic, the time is coming.... HAHAHAHAHAHA

[samuelk]

what's yr view on the index to reach before jumping in? 3000? Or 2800 ?

[chestnut]

what's yr view on the index to reach before jumping in? 3000? Or 2800 ?

Oh, i seeing the outcome of Syria then decide. I not technical guy leh...

[cbsh38584]

Vic, the time is coming.... HAHAHAHAHAHA

Straight short dated bond (2016/17)) still holding well. It is only the Perp & junk bond that it dropping around 5-8% since Jun13. Even with this 5-8%, the coupon collected for the past 1 yr will negate the losses (5-8%).

Example. Genting SGD Perp 5.25% Apr12. Price now is around 93/95. If the Genting Perp bond will to sell now. Their losses is only 1% or breakeven after holding for 16 mths as they hv collected >5.25% coupon.

When Genting SGD Perp IPO in Apr12. The share price was 1.66. Today it is 1.3 . More than 25% drop. Look at Biosenser , Hyflux , Noble share price, it drop so much >30% to 50%. But their bond price remain stable & those who invested in Biosenser, Hyflux, Noble are making money from the coupon.

My OLAM USD 5.75% bond (due 2017) holding well despite being attacked by Muddy water. It drop from 100 to 82/85 level. Now back to around 94. After holding almost for 1 yr (Sep13), If I sell now, I will lose 1-3% as my coupon 5.75% will negate my losses due to the drop in the bond price. But not for OLAM share price. It has dropped from 1.96 (Sep12) to 1.50 (Aug13). More than 20% loss.


That is why I said many times, investment grade short dated bond can be an alternative income. No borrowing so that bond investors will sleep well. I am more of a risk taking. I hv gone through so many crisis. I am able to ride through the emotional torture.

rdgs,
Vic

[chestnut]

Straight short dated bond (2016/17)) still holding well. It is only the Perp & junk bond that it dropping around 5-8% since Jun13. Even with this 5-8%, the coupon collected for the past 1 yr will negate the losses (5-8%).

Example. Genting SGD Perp 5.25% Apr12. Price now is around 93/95. If the Genting Perp bond will to sell now. Their losses is only 1% or breakeven after holding for 16 mths as they hv collected >5.25% coupon.

When Genting SGD Perp IPO in Apr12. The share price was 1.66. Today it is 1.3 . More than 25% drop. Look at Biosenser , Hyflux , Noble share price, it drop so much >30% to 50%. But their bond price remain stable & those who invested in Biosenser, Hyflux, Noble are making money from the coupon.

My OLAM USD 5.75% bond (due 2017) holding well despite being attacked by Muddy water. It drop from 100 to 82/85 level. Now back to around 94. After holding almost for 1 yr (Sep13), If I sell now, I will lose 1-3% as my coupon 5.75% will negate my losses due to the drop in the bond price. But not for OLAM share price. It has dropped from 1.96 (Sep12) to 1.50 (Aug13). More than 20% loss.


That is why I said many times, investment grade short dated bond can be an alternative income. No borrowing so that bond investors will sleep well. I am more of a risk taking. I hv gone through so many crisis. I am able to ride through the emotional torture.

rdgs,
Vic

Bro, for me short dated bonds i borrow leh... borrowing cost 0.92%. my cash i keep in deposit and get 1%.... if interest rate shoot up until i find not attractive, i will pay up from my deposits.... hahahahaha

[cbsh38584]

Bro, for me short dated bonds i borrow leh... borrowing cost 0.92%. my cash i keep in deposit and get 1%.... if interest rate shoot up until i find not attractive, i will pay up from my deposits.... hahahahaha

Your borrowing is so low @0.92. Your Fixed D get 1%. This what I call smart investing. You will be OK even if the next so call Asia financial crisis really comes true.

If OUE reit will to drop to <0.80 or SPH drop 3.80. I may or may not sell one of the bond (ABN 4.7% SGD Bond) & move to OUE reit or SPH. Will monitor 1st.


rdgs,
Vic

[amk]

OPPORTUNITY IS COMING....

Get ready to load up.....

yes I'm waiting and ready ..

[Lovelle]

load what ?

[Rosy]

load what ?

load your favourite stock counters.