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Thread: BOND THREAD

  1. #2101
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    Singapore Oil Borrowers Seek More Slack to Avoid Bond Defaults
    2015-11-23 16:00:01.0 GMT


    By Bloomberg News
    (Bloomberg) -- Borrowers in Singapore, so far spared from a
    wave of defaults in the oil services industry, are starting to
    ask creditors to cut them some slack.
    Three companies including Dyna-Mac Holdings Ltd., part-
    owned by Keppel Corp., this month are asking bond holders to
    alter certain debt limits or profit targets as contract delays
    wreck firms’ earnings. The issuers are among 28 oil services
    firms listed in Singapore with more than S$1.8 billion ($1.3
    billion) of notes maturing next year.
    “If the oil markets remain depressed beyond 2016, you’re
    going to see some problems,” Joel Ng, an analyst at KGI Fraser
    Securities Pte in Singapore, said by phone. “Some of the oil and
    gas players will probably have to restructure their bonds.”
    The borrowing that helped build Singapore’s biggest export
    industry is looking overstretched after the price of Brent crude
    slumped near $40 and the island’s economy grew just 0.1 percent
    in the third quarter. Delivery deferrals and provisioning by
    yards are causing "cash flow issues," Maybank Kim Eng Securities
    wrote in a Nov. 20 report.
    Money is certainly tighter for the 28 listed oil services
    firms. The median ratio of their operational earnings to
    interest expense, a measure of a company’s ability to pay its
    debts, was 5.4 times in their latest filings, a steep drop from
    12.5 times at the end of fiscal 2014, according to data compiled
    by Bloomberg.
    Oil services provider Dyna-Mac’s measure plunged to minus
    4.4 times in the latest quarter from 27 times at the end of
    2014. The company is currently asking holders of its bonds due
    in 2017 to, among other things, change a clause that limits its
    interest coverage ratio to at least three times. Dyna-Mac
    declined to comment for this story.
    Pacific Radiance Ltd. is also seeking to tweak a rule on
    its 2018 bonds that requires interest coverage above three
    times, compared with 4.1 times as of Sept. 30. The company’s
    debt to equity ratio, a key measure of leverage, jumped to 98.4
    percent at the end of June from 75.7 percent at the end of
    December.
    “It’s a prudent approach because we wouldn’t know how long
    this soft market condition will last," Loo Choo Leong, group
    finance director, said by phone. "While we do not expect to
    breach the covenant, leaving it to hope is not a strategy. We
    have already cut costs and realigned our ops to be as
    competitive as possible. We have prepared ourselves for the long
    march ahead."
    On average, the debt to equity ratio of Singapore-listed
    oil firms rose to 73.1 percent in latest filings from 68 percent
    at the end of the last fiscal year, while their mean cash
    holding fell to $165 million from $290 million.
    “More delivery deferrals and provisioning by yards suggest
    clients’ unwillingness or inability to pay due to cash flow
    issues,” Maybank Kim Eng analysts wrote in last week’s report.
    “Credit problems have started to surface.”

    Global Losses

    Investors who plowed about $14 billion into global high-
    yield energy bonds sold in the past six months are sitting on
    about $2 billion of losses, according to data compiled by
    Bloomberg. And the energy sector accounts for more than a
    quarter of high-yield bonds that are trading at distressed
    levels.
    More than half of the Singapore dollar bonds that are
    trading with yields above 10 percent are from the oil services
    industry, the data show. The median yield for the 312 notes is
    4.03 percent.
    Ezra Holdings Ltd., which successfully raised S$200 million
    from a rights offering in July, is asking noteholders to change
    certain requirements on its bonds after it agreed a $1.25
    billion subsea services joint venture with Chiyoda Corp.
    The venture “will be better positioned to capitalize on
    market opportunities as well as manage risks arising from
    fluctuating market conditions,” an Ezra spokesperson said
    Monday.
    Both Pacific Radiance and Dyna-Mac cited challenging market
    conditions as the reason why they may not meet debt
    requirements, a breach that would legally be considered a
    default unless bondholders accept changes to the contract
    clause.
    “It’s going to be a very bad year for the oil companies and
    the yards,” said Park Moo-Hyun, an analyst at Hana Daetoo
    Securities Co. Ltd. in Seoul. “The issue here isn’t about when
    are oil prices going to recover. Oil companies are going to
    fight for survival.”

  2. #2102
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    Hi
    I am a bond noob. Now choosing between Olam (issued 22/07/14, 4.25 coupon rate), Sembcorp (20/05/15, 4.75), Frasers Centrepoint (24/09/14, 4.88) and Keppel REIT (02/11/15, 4.98). Any advice for these four?

  3. #2103
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    Quote Originally Posted by spikey69 View Post
    Hi
    I am a bond noob. Now choosing between Olam (issued 22/07/14, 4.25 coupon rate), Sembcorp (20/05/15, 4.75), Frasers Centrepoint (24/09/14, 4.88) and Keppel REIT (02/11/15, 4.98). Any advice for these four?
    as long not perpetual. keppel or frasers are pretty safe
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
    ― Martin Luther King, Jr.

    OUT WITH THE SHIT TRASH

    https://www.facebook.com/shutdowntrs

  4. #2104
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post
    Currently trading @93+. Callable 2018. I not sure whether the coupon is taxable by the Italy govt.
    All time low is 89. Recently low is 91+. I think it is more for tactical trade. Buy low sell high.
    I got this bond. No taxation so far.

  5. #2105
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    Quote Originally Posted by stl67 View Post
    I got this bond. No taxation so far.
    I banker told me there is taxation issues. Hopefully . no issues later on.

  6. #2106
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post
    I bought Pacific International Lines (PIL), 5.9% SGD BOND due 17jul2017 @100 on Jul14.

    Just last week, Pacific International Lines Sold 3-Year SGD 7.25% Bond due Nov'18.
    I do not know why 3 bookrunners are needed for a small issued S$130m issue size.
    The worst is that they are giving out a HIGH LTV 70% for this junk bond. I believe
    they are giving high LTV 70% to entice investors to buy. Price to [email protected].

    I am not so comfortable about this PIL companies if there is another lehman type crisis
    comes again. I may sell away for PIL 5.9% bond due Jul17 at min loss.
    Cut loss for pacfic intl lines 5.9% Sgd bond @98.30. Overall still make net 5% including
    coupon for holding 16 mths.

  7. #2107
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    Sold Lippomall 5.875% SGD Bond @101. Bought 100 in 2012.

    Sold Central china real estate 6.5% USD bond @96.375 at min loss. Bought in [email protected].

    Preparing to hold more cash now to switch out more from fixed income to equity investment next year.
    Likely to buy mutual fund to lower my risk of buying individual stock. Hopefully can get 6-8%

  8. #2108
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    1 AUS=S$0.96 (Jan 2009)
    1 AUS=S$1.26 (Feb 2010)
    1 AUS=S$1.31 (Apr 2011)
    1 AUS=S$1.08 (Mar 2015)
    1 AUS=S$1.008 (Jul 2015)
    1 AUS=S$1.015 (22 Dec15)

    1 AUS=US$0.65 (Mar 2009)
    1 AUS=US$0.98 (Oct 2010)
    1 AUS$=US$1.08 (Apr 2011)
    1 AUS=US$0.78(Mar 2015)
    1 AUS=US$0.738 (Jul2015)
    1 AUS=US$0.7235 (22 Dec15)

    1 Canada = S$1.35 (2010)
    1 Canada = S$1.08 (2015)
    1 Canada = S$1.007 (22 Dec15)

    1 Canada = US$US$1.002 (2010)
    1 Canada = US$1.16 ( Jan 2015)
    1 Canada = US$1.393 (22 Dec 2015)

    Now I am doing for USD base against CAD pair . strike @1.41 (5%)
    SGD base against CAD pair . strike @1.002 (4%)

    Canada - Release of the Interest Rate Announcement and the Monetary Policy Report is on 20th Jan 2016.
    So to play safe. Let the fixing (mature) due on 19th Jan 16. Those who did USD base or SGD base pair
    against Canada is losing between 10% to 25% before the CRASH start in 2014.


    Aus has strengthen against SGD by 1%+ to 1.016. Now waiting for Aus to drop below 1 SGD = Aus0.99+
    before I pair it again to strike around 0.98+.

    Will concentrate more on dual currency investment instead of bond. Hopefully can get $30k+ return for
    2016.

  9. #2109
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    Bond prices and interest rates are like two opposing ends of a teeter-totter: When one side rises, the other side falls.

    When interest rates are rising, bond prices are falling and when interest rates are falling, bond prices are rising. So the best time to invest in bonds is when interest rates are falling because the price (or value) of your bond investment is rising.

    This captures an investing risk call interest rate risk, which is the risk of falling bond prices due to the rise in interest rates. If interest rates are rising, who wants to own the bonds paying lower interest for even longer periods of time?

  10. #2110
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    I am doing sgd aud pairing. Thinking of sgd euro as higher yield. If Converted at 1.5 seemed alright.

  11. #2111
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    Quote Originally Posted by newbie11 View Post
    I am doing sgd aud pairing. Thinking of sgd euro as higher yield. If Converted at 1.5 seemed alright.
    .

    This is a website for U to see live FX pricing.http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-rates/.
    I watch it everyday to get a feel of the currency movement.

    SGD /EURO. I think better don't .Too much a risk. If get converted, FD is 0%.
    Just play very safe.

    Aus deposit rate still get 1.5 to 2%. If U don't mind taking some risk in Aus equity.
    You can buy commonwealth bank (CBA) during the "FEAR time" if the price drop.
    ANZ bank also etc.

    CBA - "FEAR" price 2 mths ago was A$72. Now A$84.

  12. #2112
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    I still haven't found what I am looking for - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdCJRybAtso
    ===========================================================
    One of the greatest song of all time. Happy 2016 new year.
    I Hope you will hope find what you are looking for in 2016.

    Some of them finally found what they are looking for through GOD.
    They really finally found HAPPINESS through GOD.

    Some of them found what they are looking for their "WANT". CAR & CONDO.
    But eventually they suffer as they are unable to sustain their "WANT" & suffer
    financial problem due to bad money management. They regretted .
    They finally found what they are looking for "Simplicity & necessity is real happiness".

    Some of them still hope to find what they are looking for "health is wealth"
    Most of them at the early age did not really take good care of the health. As they
    age, they suddenly found out that their health problem start to surface. Their bad
    health bring a financial stress to their family. Now they are constantly looking for GOOD health.

    Some of the single ladies & men still haven't found what they are looking for "their dream partner"
    As they age, searching for their dream partner" seem to be very far away.

    Most of them still haven't found what they are looking for in the life especially when comes to financial
    freedom. Everyday, always drag to work with no motivation. I do hope they read more "positive thinking"
    book & hopefully they can understand whatever they will achieve is through their "POSITIVE ACTION"
    Throw away all the "NEGATIVE THOUGHT" into the bin NOW.

    BEST POSITIVE QUOTE for 2016
    ==========================
    NEVER GIVE UP. BELIEVE YOU CAN. THINK POSITIVE . BE POSITIVE & POSITIVE THINGS WILL HAPPEN.

  13. #2113
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    Hi cbsh

    Thanks for your sharing always. Appreciate it..

    Read this recently:

    There are two types of joy: the joy to receive and the joy to give.
    The first one is directed to the self (one receives presents, gains money, awards, material goods, etc.), and thus it can turn into euphoria, which in Chinese medicine is known to be harmful to the heart 多喜伤心 ("too much joy damages the heart").
    The second type, however, the joy to give/sharing (to do kindness to the others) is directed outward, it is blissful, yet very peaceful, does not lead to euphoria and doesn't harm the heart. Even more, it's part of inner cultivation, and the way of Dao.

    Have a blessed 2016.

  14. #2114
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post
    I still haven't found what I am looking for - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdCJRybAtso
    ===========================================================
    One of the greatest song of all time. Happy 2016 new year.
    I Hope you will hope find what you are looking for in 2016.

    Some of them finally found what they are looking for through GOD.
    They really finally found HAPPINESS through GOD.

    Some of them found what they are looking for their "WANT". CAR & CONDO.
    But eventually they suffer as they are unable to sustain their "WANT" & suffer
    financial problem due to bad money management. They regretted .
    They finally found what they are looking for "Simplicity & necessity is real happiness".

    Some of them still hope to find what they are looking for "health is wealth"
    Most of them at the early age did not really take good care of the health. As they
    age, they suddenly found out that their health problem start to surface. Their bad
    health bring a financial stress to their family. Now they are constantly looking for GOOD health.

    Some of the single ladies & men still haven't found what they are looking for "their dream partner"
    As they age, searching for their dream partner" seem to be very far away.

    Most of them still haven't found what they are looking for in the life especially when comes to financial
    freedom. Everyday, always drag to work with no motivation. I do hope they read more "positive thinking"
    book & hopefully they can understand whatever they will achieve is through their "POSITIVE ACTION"
    Throw away all the "NEGATIVE THOUGHT" into the bin NOW.

    BEST POSITIVE QUOTE for 2016
    ==========================
    NEVER GIVE UP. BELIEVE YOU CAN. THINK POSITIVE . BE POSITIVE & POSITIVE THINGS WILL HAPPEN.


    Always love our MOTHER. They are a GREAT MOTHER.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JM_R1R28kLM

  15. #2115
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    Bought VTB bank 7.5% @99.7 amount to AUS$200k on May15.
    Today (6th Jan 2016) Sold @102.5. Now put into 1 wk fixed D @1.9% &
    wait for opportunity to buy Aus stock. Hopefully the timing is right.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Also Bought & hold it till maturity for VTB 4% SGD bond
    Also Bought & Sold Russia VTB 5% CHF Bond.
    Also bought Russia serbank 3.25% Euro Bond but sold off too early with min profit.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Many say Russia is most dangerous countries to buy their corporate bond in 2014/2015.
    But turn out to be the safest place for 2015. Not too sure for 2016. So better take profit
    & sold VTB 7.5% A$ bond.

  16. #2116
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    where to get 1 wk fixed D @1.9%? only for private client?

  17. #2117
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    Quote Originally Posted by agentg View Post
    where to get 1 wk fixed D @1.9%? only for private client?
    Yes from CS. one month FD is 2%.
    Didn't expect "COLD WINTER" to come so early on the 1st week of 2016.

  18. #2118
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    Kepcorp straight bond is only down between 0.5% to 1%. But the stock has dropped
    >40%. It is the same for SembCorp bond. So I believe in buying investment grade
    or blue chip bond.

    Before the big crisis comes. Just sell the bond & keep cash & wait for equity to
    to drop further & buy at "CRISIS" price. Not necessary need to buy $250k.
    Buy $50k to $100k into blue chip stock at crisis price. The return is so much
    higher than investment grade bond when equity recover. Entry timing is important
    So don't use one lump sum to buy. Stagger buy is better as U do not know when is
    the bottom.

  19. #2119
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    I believe the O&G are going through their own 2008 crisis now. looks like bottoming out soon. but the risk is will there be rights issue? or even for semb marine will it end up privatise and delisted?
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
    ― Martin Luther King, Jr.

    OUT WITH THE SHIT TRASH

    https://www.facebook.com/shutdowntrs

  20. #2120
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    DJ A Brazilian Blowout Hits Sembcorp -- Heard On The Street
    12 Jan 2016 15:38
    DJ A Brazilian Blowout Hits Sembcorp -- Heard On The Street

    (FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL 1/12/16)
    By Abheek Bhattacharya
    [Financial Analysis and Commentary]


    Flaps of political wings in Brazil are setting off a storm around Singapore's Sembcorp Marine.

    Through Monday, shares in the state-run builder of offshore oil rigs already have dropped about 10% in 2016. The weak oil price doesn't help, but a more immediate issue is the corruption scandal enveloping Brazil's national oil giant Petrobras, which also happens to be the world's most indebted oil major. Investors now speculate that an entity linked to Petrobras, called Sete Brasil, could file for bankruptcy later this month.

    Sete Brasil accounts for about 40% of Sembcorp Marine's order backlog. Daiwa Capital Markets estimates that if outstanding orders from Sete and Petrobras get canceled, Sembcorp's adjusted order book will be at most 1.5 years of revenue. As of September, its order book was valued at 2.3 times. Continuing contracts in Brazil also could be renegotiated since they were struck above current market rates.

    Combined with oversupply in the oil-equipment industry, as major oil companies pare back big projects, these woes in Brazil will hit Sembcorp's earnings. Expect its shares to keep getting hit, too. Despite having halved in the past year, they remain richly valued.

    Sembcorp trades at 1.1 times book value, a metric that gives investors a sense of the cost to replace hard assets when times are bad. Most of its peers trade for less than book, including Singapore-listed Keppel, Cosco and South Korea's Samsung Heavy Industries. Sembcorp's storm isn't over yet.


    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    January 12, 2016 02:38 ET (07:38 GMT)

    Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    Source: Dow Jones
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
    ― Martin Luther King, Jr.

    OUT WITH THE SHIT TRASH

    https://www.facebook.com/shutdowntrs

  21. #2121
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post
    Yes from CS. one month FD is 2%.
    Didn't expect "COLD WINTER" to come so early on the 1st week of 2016.
    Sorry, what is CS? BTW, Maybank is offering 1.6% for 3 months but min deposit is $25k. Most banks now offering around 1.8% to 1.9% depending on the tenure of the FD.

  22. #2122
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    Quote Originally Posted by irisng View Post
    Sorry, what is CS? BTW, Maybank is offering 1.6% for 3 months but min deposit is $25k. Most banks now offering around 1.8% to 1.9% depending on the tenure of the FD.
    CS = Credit Sui
    SC = std chart
    Maybe ANZ bank rate will be much better.

    The only sector that is shining is the quality bond sector .Flight to safety

    HDB 3.08% 7 yrs bond due 2021 @103 (3% profit if sell + accured interest)
    It was 100.5 in Aug15.

    HDB 3.98% 15yrs bond due 2027 @1.10. A huge 10% premium (profit 10% if sell + accured interest)
    It was 105 in Aug15.

  23. #2123
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    Bought Evergrande CNY (RMB) Junk bond 9.25% @97.7 on 28th Aug15.
    Exchange 6.408 on 28th Aug15.

    Matured 19th Jan 2016 @ 100. 19th Jan 2016 exchange Rate is 6.57.
    Profit est US$7000 for holding 4.6 mths.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Switch to investment grade (A3) BHP 6.25% long dated USD bond due 2075
    ( callable 2020@100). Bought @ 93.25. YTC 7.98% YTM 6.8%

    Was Recommended by CS when it was 98 a few mths ago.
    Was recommended by DBS when it was 94+ days ago.

  24. #2124
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    UOB High yield bond fund up 3% since Oct 2015.

    UOB Asia fund drops 18% since Oct 2015 .

  25. #2125
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post
    Bought Evergrande CNY (RMB) Junk bond 9.25% @97.7 on 28th Aug15.
    Exchange 6.408 on 28th Aug15.

    Matured 19th Jan 2016 @ 100. 19th Jan 2016 exchange Rate is 6.57.
    Profit est US$7000 for holding 4.6 mths.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Switch to investment grade (A3) BHP 6.25% long dated USD bond due 2075
    ( callable 2020@100). Bought @ 93.25. YTC 7.98% YTM 6.8%

    Was Recommended by CS when it was 98 a few mths ago.
    Was recommended by DBS when it was 94+ days ago.

    BHP rating downgrade by S&P. Bought @93.25. Sold BHP 6.25% bond @93.75.
    Lehman crisis still haunt me. better keep more cash & wait for opportunities.

  26. #2126
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post
    BHP rating downgrade by S&P. Bought @93.25. Sold BHP 6.25% bond @93.75.
    Lehman crisis still haunt me. better keep more cash & wait for opportunities.
    Price up sell already then post here? If u can post here the price u bought before u sell.

  27. #2127
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post
    U.K. Regulator Blocks CoCo Sales to Individual Investors
    ===================================


    The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority will ban firms from selling contingent convertible bonds to individual investors, saying they’re too complex and risky for the mass retail market.

    “In a low interest rate environment, many investors might be tempted by CoCos offering high headline returns,” Christopher Woolard, the FCA’s director of policy, risk and research, said in a statement today. “However, they are complex and can be highly risky.”

    Under pressure from regulators to boost capital after the financial crisis of 2008, banks have been selling CoCos, a form of fixed-income security that automatically converts into ordinary shares if a firm’s capital falls below a pre-determined level. European regulators last month expressed concern banks may be selling them to consumers without properly explaining the risks. Portugal’s bailout of Banco Espirito Santo SA this week left shareholders and junior bondholders with losses

    Now you know why U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority ban firms from selling contingent convertible bonds to individual investors. Look at all
    the European banks, it is all time low. I watched the CNBC financial news last Jan16. The GURU said that some weak European banks may go ZERO . Maybe in 2017 or 2018 or will not HAPPEN at all. Citigroup share price also drop from $53 (Nov15) to 37.5 (Feb16). So better stay out & keep more cash.

  28. #2128
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    I just share a few points of my observations:

    1. if you compare sub prime crisis to the commodity price plunge, which have a more deepen impact?
    ( to take note : China was not affected by sub prime, but now facing a hard landing)

    2. has the crude stabilized? Impact of Iran releasing their stocks, and OPEC needs more money?
    65 oil producers filed bankruptcy and 150 more to go at this time?

    3. what is the impact of oil prices on the banks?

    4. Impact of China hard landing?

    5. Impact of evaporation of the money printed due to share and commodity markets crashing?

    I am now a BEAR!

  29. #2129
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    posted to wrong place

  30. #2130
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post
    Now you know why U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority ban firms from selling contingent convertible bonds to individual investors. Look at all
    the European banks, it is all time low. I watched the CNBC financial news last Jan16. The GURU said that some weak European banks may go ZERO . Maybe in 2017 or 2018 or will not HAPPEN at all. Citigroup share price also drop from $53 (Nov15) to 37.5 (Feb16). So better stay out & keep more cash.
    If DB needs to work so hard to ease the fears on their COCO....it definitely is very very BAD

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