BOND THREAD

[proud owner]

Proud Owner, what are the characteristics of a good Currency Trader? Do you mind sharing?[/QUOTE]


Many old school traders will tell you its " How fast you can react to market news"

I remember my first interview for the position of Trainee Dealer.
2 interviewers.
They took turn to humtum me with questions, non stop, one after the other.. market related questions

then out of the blues, 1 weird question ... "what is your blood group?"

then proceed with a series of market related questions ....

then again, an unrelated one.... " Whats your IC number?"

They were testing me on how focus i was and how fast i could react..

Only 1 interview ... and i got the job...



To me, a good currency trader :
1. has a view/opinion of market, Right /Wrong, Good/bad doesnt matter...just need to have a view
2. always think ahead...What will happen if a), if b) ...play out all the scenarios in his head.
3. Discipline ... trade according to your view... do not be clouded by others' opinion.
4. NOT emotional ... emotions always make one take rash/immediate actions that is usually wrong.
5. COOL ... cool headed .... you can think better .. play PVZ2 if you have to... ahhaha
During 911, i was back in SG, home leave... every single one of my banker friends were rushing back to office (9pm ish) to monitor their positions..
I picked up the phone and called my colleague in NY office, and asked " Is everyone alright?"
I wasn't worried about my trades as all the Stops/Profit takes were in place.
6. Dont be penny wise pound foolish...
Cut your flesh (chinese saying hahah) if you have to, But make sure you CUT a bigger chunk out of market later on.


I think it applies to Bond/equities traders too ... maybe Oil/Gas as well...

[bargain hunter]

Must be at the right age plus education plus savvy to be so lucky.

If like me still below 40, how to buy many 10 years ago? Can only buy 1. Haha...

The roads just get tougher for the newer generations.

if too old may also have been caught up in the hype. e.g. an uncle who was in the construction business, yaya papaya, after 97 went bust.

bro proud, just the right age.

[amk]

Every generation has its moment. 1997, 2001, 2003-2006, 2009.
You still need to be smart to seize the moment.
In 2009 I told this young trader , who is doing not bad for his age, that pty is a buy. I said : " how many recessions can you experience in yr life time ? dun miss it". Although being a smart trader, he hesitated, and did not have the guts to go in,just like every one else. He missed the moment. Worse, in 2013, he joined the hype like everyone else, entered at the peak.
Being successful in the job is the prerequisite, having the right judgment when opportunity comes is crucial.

[minority]

Must be at the right age plus education plus savvy to be so lucky.

If like me still below 40, how to buy many 10 years ago? Can only buy 1. Haha...

The roads just get tougher for the newer generations.

Actually property u need to be young. Coz it's a leverage game. So to leverage the one with the most time wins.

I enter th foray early 30s. Didn't have much cash. But the entry barrier then was not high too. 10% down n rest is deferred payment.

[cbsh38584]

1997, if you had invested in stocks (same time as your niece bought Aquarius). Would the stock have recovered in 15-18 years????

Stocks and property market are co related.....

In fact, stocks are forward looking....

The issue today is not many people willing to pay ABSD.... Those who did not buy before implementation of ABSD 'cannot' buy or unwilling to fork out the additional 7/10%. Remember, the Govt implemented 3% ABSD and found out it didn't work and then implemented the 7/10%.

I have already started to impart my property know how to my kids.... Even though I have bonds, stocks, etc.... My sharing is simple : Let the tenant pay for your property/properties.

Properties can always be rented out.... It is all about expectations of the rental.

Your Niece bought Aquarius @900 psf. Take 1,200 sq ft. It is about $1,080,000. She cannot even rent it out for 3000? She probably didn't have a good agent or expected more....

If she had rent out at 3k. That's 36k per year. Minus property tax, maintenance, etc.... 20k. 20k x 15 years = 300k.

Your mind is set that it's a bad time to invest.

I did post on why MARGINAL ppty investors must avoid buying ppty in 2011/2012 (peak). I try to find this message I posted in 2011. I cant find it or I do not know how.

I say that those MARGINAL ppty investors are those who own a HDB with min loan left or fully paid & have excess on 400k to 600k avail for a 2nd ppty investors to buy. I say those group of MARGINAL ppty investors will be better off invest into safe bond like Cheung Kong 5.125% or Singpost 4% SGD perp bond.

Job securities will be a very big issues. When U reach 40+ to 50 yrs old, chances of being retrenched is very high possiblility & U are expected to living beyond 80 or even 90 if they did not plan for their retirement early.

Inflation is a very big issues. KK hospital charges $70 then $90 then $98. I heard now $115 just within 6-7 yrs.
Floss bread from 0.80 to $1.00 to 1.20 $ 1.50 . Now $1.70. etc etc. The cash of $400k to $600k is very precious to them. If those MARIGINAL ppty investors buy during the peak period (2011/201), they will be in real trouble if their job is not secured. Everyday, fired fighting to pay for the related ppty linvestment & may lead to husband /wife quarreling & affect the kids.

If they will to buy Cheung kong 5.125% & pay full amt $250k (min $250 & LTV 50%). It take est 18-19 yrs to
collect coupon close to $250k (not yet include your initial capital of $250k).

I do not know whether those ppty investors who invest into 1-2 bedder (500k to 700k) during the peak period in 2011/2012. After 18-19 yrs, will it become from 500k to 1000k & 700k to 1.4m. Likely not

My niece who invested in D16 condo in 1997 ($900psf during peak). It only break even (900psf) only After 15-18 yrs. I believe it will stay around $900osf for many yrs due to the excess supply & also not so good location. Maybe it will be better after the MRT is completed in 2020. By the time, the ppty is really old (23 yrs) & need more sinking fund. Bayshore park is one of the old condo now have problem.

If I am them with 400k to 600k cash, I will invest into a safe fixed income like Cheung Kong 5.125% perp bond or other. The $12800 coupon received yearly, I will dump (1k cash contribution monthly through AXS atm) it into my CPF for wife/husband future retirement or buy into a tokio marine saving plan 12k/yr for 5 yrs & lock in for another 10 yrs (can be 15 yrs) . Return projected 4.2%-4.5%.

50k to 80k emergency fund into Fixed deposit. Another 30k-40k liquidilty cash at POSB for daliy expenses.
Bal buy into dividend or global fund during the bear mkt. If it is around peak period, just temporary buy into
fullleration fixed income fund (est 3% rtn) 1st. When opportunities comes (mkt deep correction) switch to higher risk fund like 1st state dividend , Schroder Asian fund etc etc. If U have higher risk profile, buy into
individual blue chip or reit or some US stock like Apple , starbuck etc.

Must buy insurance early for their kids prefer TERM insurance or yourself. I bought CI term insurance very early for my 2 kids. Each pays $431/yr insure $171k. If I will to buy whole + CI, it will be >$1800. The return will depend on the participating fund performance. Liekly to be low 2% to 3.5%. In 1988, I bought a whole policy. Projected return low 5.12% & high 9% at that time (1988). After >$25 yrs, the return is only 1.88%. So I terminated it to put into my CPF (2.5% to 4%). My tgt for my CPF $ before age 60 is $1m.

The rich (not MARIGINAL) ppty investors like U will not have any problem servicing the loan & can afford to hold 20-30 yrs. I still believe in ppty investment but max is only 1 HDB & 1 CONDO.

[chestnut]

Niece purchase Aquarius by the park at 1.08 mil and say still holding it. Rental @ 2,500 per month. Say downpayment 200k. Loan 800k. 30 yr loan. Monthly installment is 3k per month at 2% interest.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/proje...park-46/rent/1
She needs to pay monthly - 250 for maintenance, 110 for agent fee (2 years pay 1 month), miscellaneous - 140. Total 500 per month.

All in all, she folks out 3.5k and get rental 2.5k. She tops up the 1 k from cpf or use cash.
She loses 12k per year. Over 30 years - 360k.
Her total investment is 200 + 360 = 560k. House fully paid after 30 years. Monthly rental stays at 2.5k which is a cheap rate. How much is a 5 room HDB renting at????

When she retires, she will collect 2 k every month. I am painting a very bad rental rate.

Do you think Aquarius will be 500k after 30 year ????? You can always rely on cpf as safety net to service the loan. Collect the rental and save and invest in bonds later. The interest you pay on cpf is actually your money. Hahahaha. So it goes back into your account.

I don't believe in putting money into cpf. The money gets stuck there. When it is emergency, u cannot redraw it. Especially when a person reaches 40+ and is fearful of losing his job. When he loses his job, he needs cash, not cpf. All expenses use cash.

If he has a house, he can encash it somehow.... Increase cpf payment and receive rental in cash - food for thought.

Property is brick and mortar..... Bonds can kaput. Property won't. As a safety net, property is safer especially when 1 cannot afford to lose it (the investment).

Different thinking.... No right, no wrong.... Options available.

[chestnut]

Many people do not have the discipline to save money. Committing to a house ensures they can save. And by the way, people are willing to lose at least 1k per month on car but tell them to invest additional 1k, they scared like hell.... They worry about their job (security) but depreciation of 10k per year (not including insurance, petrol, road tax, maintenance, etc) and they are ok with it. It is all in the mindset.

[stl67]

Proud Owner, what are the characteristics of a good Currency Trader? Do you mind sharing?

Many old school traders will tell you its " How fast you can react to market news"

I remember my first interview for the position of Trainee Dealer.
2 interviewers.
They took turn to humtum me with questions, non stop, one after the other.. market related questions

then out of the blues, 1 weird question ... "what is your blood group?"

then proceed with a series of market related questions ....

then again, an unrelated one.... " Whats your IC number?"

They were testing me on how focus i was and how fast i could react..

.[/QUOTE]

谢谢你

[Laguna]

good to read again about you....stl67
stay healthy is more important..

I just went back to work at old age. It is extremely difficult to get a JOB for aged...other than be a taxi driver, cleaner and security guard..

I'm now over weight in bonds...just don't think corporate results will be good.

[Kelonguni]

Bro CBSH, first thing I wonder is about your niece purchase in 1997. In 1997, the max price for the 123sqm units are typically 800+K, with a few at 900+K. Some of the 114sqm units were 700+K. Recent prices are typically and mostly transacted at 1.2M, with only a couple lodged at unnaturally low priced at 900+K (maybe decoupling?).

Back to our scenario, Aquarius (99LH) prices suggest a broad-based background appreciation of 2% annually. A 2% appreciation over 18 years for a 600K property translates into 857K at the end of 18 years.

We can modify some parameters to estimate the yield at 18 years based on money out per year. Assume 600K 99LH property rented at 1800 in the first year, 30 years' term, 1st 10 years interest rates average at 2%, and goes up to 3.5% for the next 20 years. DP 25%, 168K initial and 6K "further input" annually factoring additional expenses that Teddy suggested.

Outstanding loan at 10 years is 329K. 90 months after that (17.5 years from start), the monthly amount that goes into principle monthly is $1229 with interest at $679. In the 18th year, the amount placed in is $276K while the rent collected monthly adjusted for 2% inflation is $2,570 at the end of 18 years (in 2034). Still modest looking rent. The equity gained per year goes up to 8.2% (22692 / 276,000). At the end of 30 years, the rent in Year 2046 should be $3260. The yield is 11.2%.

Of course, there are still some stuffs that are very hard to calculate such as property tax / income tax increases. But then, 30 years later should be retired so that helps to balance out a bit.

I did post on why MARGINAL ppty investors must avoid buying ppty in 2011/2012 (peak). I try to find this message I posted in 2011. I cant find it or I do not know how.

I say that those MARGINAL ppty investors are those who own a HDB with min loan left or fully paid & have excess on 400k to 600k avail for a 2nd ppty investors to buy. I say those group of MARGINAL ppty investors will be better off invest into safe bond like Cheung Kong 5.125% or Singpost 4% SGD perp bond.

Job securities will be a very big issues. When U reach 40+ to 50 yrs old, chances of being retrenched is very high possiblility & U are expected to living beyond 80 or even 90 if they did not plan for their retirement early.

Inflation is a very big issues. KK hospital charges $70 then $90 then $98. I heard now $115 just within 6-7 yrs.
Floss bread from 0.80 to $1.00 to 1.20 $ 1.50 . Now $1.70. etc etc. The cash of $400k to $600k is very precious to them. If those MARIGINAL ppty investors buy during the peak period (2011/201), they will be in real trouble if their job is not secured. Everyday, fired fighting to pay for the related ppty linvestment & may lead to husband /wife quarreling & affect the kids.

If they will to buy Cheung kong 5.125% & pay full amt $250k (min $250 & LTV 50%). It take est 18-19 yrs to
collect coupon close to $250k (not yet include your initial capital of $250k).

I do not know whether those ppty investors who invest into 1-2 bedder (500k to 700k) during the peak period in 2011/2012. After 18-19 yrs, will it become from 500k to 1000k & 700k to 1.4m. Likely not

My niece who invested in D16 condo in 1997 ($900psf during peak). It only break even (900psf) only After 15-18 yrs. I believe it will stay around $900osf for many yrs due to the excess supply & also not so good location. Maybe it will be better after the MRT is completed in 2020. By the time, the ppty is really old (23 yrs) & need more sinking fund. Bayshore park is one of the old condo now have problem.

If I am them with 400k to 600k cash, I will invest into a safe fixed income like Cheung Kong 5.125% perp bond or other. The $12800 coupon received yearly, I will dump (1k cash contribution monthly through AXS atm) it into my CPF for wife/husband future retirement or buy into a tokio marine saving plan 12k/yr for 5 yrs & lock in for another 10 yrs (can be 15 yrs) . Return projected 4.2%-4.5%.

50k to 80k emergency fund into Fixed deposit. Another 30k-40k liquidilty cash at POSB for daliy expenses.
Bal buy into dividend or global fund during the bear mkt. If it is around peak period, just temporary buy into
fullleration fixed income fund (est 3% rtn) 1st. When opportunities comes (mkt deep correction) switch to higher risk fund like 1st state dividend , Schroder Asian fund etc etc. If U have higher risk profile, buy into
individual blue chip or reit or some US stock like Apple , starbuck etc.

Must buy insurance early for their kids prefer TERM insurance or yourself. I bought CI term insurance very early for my 2 kids. Each pays $431/yr insure $171k. If I will to buy whole + CI, it will be >$1800. The return will depend on the participating fund performance. Liekly to be low 2% to 3.5%. In 1988, I bought a whole policy. Projected return low 5.12% & high 9% at that time (1988). After >$25 yrs, the return is only 1.88%. So I terminated it to put into my CPF (2.5% to 4%). My tgt for my CPF $ before age 60 is $1m.

The rich (not MARIGINAL) ppty investors like U will not have any problem servicing the loan & can afford to hold 20-30 yrs. I still believe in ppty investment but max is only 1 HDB & 1 CONDO.

[Reisor]

Your life experiences during those 97 turbulent times brought lots of memory and am glad they have been blessings for you.
Yes, downfall for many as shortly after AFC resulting in the political turmoil, have been and seen one of those street demonstration, luckily for me, it was the earlier stage and has not turned violent yet. Left the place and the rest history.... was young, single, risk-taking then. Now, almost 20 years later, though no longer vested, still met some friends there and still looking for opportunities to buy into Sg properties, mostly middle class, and besides investing, one of the stronger reason is still what happen then. Lessons learnt then was that those mega speculative funds have the ability to tear down entire country's reserve if the country is not careful.

In 1996/7 due to my salary, I could not apply for HDB.
I was offered an EC, which i bought, at about 600k ( after grant).
It didnt TOP until 1999.
During Asian crisis, a lot of banks/Traders lost a lot a lot of $$$$... I am sure those who invested in Equities / Bonds / Properties all died like a dog.
I was lucky.

My own trading + my bank's trading both did VERY VERY WELL.
We were totally unharmed by the crisis. Instead, made a lot of money.
Then there was 911.
Sars.
Property prices continued to fall.
2004 i started to market to sell my EC.
I lowred the price to 345k ( almost half price ) .. there was NO BUYER.
Frustrated, i decided not to sell.
In 2004/5, a brilliant trading idea came to mind.
I started my Buying spree in 2005.

Buying landed houses, Penthouse condos.
My instructions to agent was :
BIG units,
FREEHOLD,
D 1,2,3,4,5 and 10
the smallest condo i bought was 2271 sqft.
when the mkt started going crazy..... 2 of my old condos, got enbloc, both D10.
With the $$ from the enbloc, I bought another landed.
The rest of the $$ went into my Currency trading acc ...
regardless Up and Down economies ... theres always opportunities to make $$ in currency trading

Between 2007 to 2012 .... i was in USA ....
I became a landlord. and that felt really good.
My wife quit her job in 2007 just before we left SG.
when we returned in 2012... i retired.
Today ... i am still a landlord.
I am still trading my currency ( not full time )
during the 2008/9 Lehman crisis, I was managing the banks' cash book of USD 5bio.
While now everyone is still suing banks for their loses, I was again lucky. I made a lot of $$ for my bank.
MAYBE i have been lucky.
I have seen friends / relatives lost shxt loads of $$ in Equities / Bonds / Properties while i have always been lucky in Currency.
that i tend to be biased and favor trading currency.

[cbsh38584]

Niece purchase Aquarius by the park at 1.08 mil and say still holding it. Rental @ 2,500 per month. Say downpayment 200k. Loan 800k. 30 yr loan. Monthly installment is 3k per month at 2% interest.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/proje...park-46/rent/1
She needs to pay monthly - 250 for maintenance, 110 for agent fee (2 years pay 1 month), miscellaneous - 140. Total 500 per month.

All in all, she folks out 3.5k and get rental 2.5k. She tops up the 1 k from cpf or use cash.
She loses 12k per year. Over 30 years - 360k.
Her total investment is 200 + 360 = 560k. House fully paid after 30 years. Monthly rental stays at 2.5k which is a cheap rate. How much is a 5 room HDB renting at????

When she retires, she will collect 2 k every month. I am painting a very bad rental rate.

Do you think Aquarius will be 500k after 30 year ????? You can always rely on cpf as safety net to service the loan. Collect the rental and save and invest in bonds later. The interest you pay on cpf is actually your money. Hahahaha. So it goes back into your account.

I don't believe in putting money into cpf. The money gets stuck there. When it is emergency, u cannot redraw it. Especially when a person reaches 40+ and is fearful of losing his job. When he loses his job, he needs cash, not cpf. All expenses use cash.

If he has a house, he can encash it somehow.... Increase cpf payment and receive rental in cash - food for thought.

Property is brick and mortar..... Bonds can kaput. Property won't. As a safety net, property is safer especially when 1 cannot afford to lose it (the investment).

Different thinking.... No right, no wrong.... Options available.

We shall see how the MARGINAL ppty investors who had invested in 2011/2012 their invested return in another 5 yrs later , 2021/2022 (total 10 yrs). Most (not all) of the MARIGINAL ppty investors invested in the last 5 yrs 2011/2012 did not yield the expected rental yield result after TOP. Hopefully, SG govt can help to transform SG mature economy to a higher level in the next 5-10 yrs.


FYI, if a person CPF acct has $1m by age 55 now. It will set a side retirement acct, RA = $161k & Medisave acct = $49.5k. The bal $1m - 161k - 49.5 =$789,500 can be withdrawn in one lump sum or any time U want at age 55. CPF will be very happy if U will to withdraw all $789,500. But I believe majorities will leave it at their CPF acct to earn RISK FREE higher interest of 20k plus every year.

[Kelonguni]

My choice will be straightforward. Even easier to calculate since full sum to settle is available without loan or 40% loan.

Yes, we should wait a few years for the nil supply plus increase in demand to calibrate before we conclude.

In the meantime, build firepower with stocks or bonds.

We shall see how the MARGINAL ppty investors who had invested in 2011/2012 their invested return in another 5 yrs later , 2021/2022 (total 10 yrs). Most (not all) of the MARIGINAL ppty investors invested in the last 5 yrs 2011/2012 did not yield the expected rental yield result after TOP. Hopefully, SG govt can help to transform SG mature economy to a higher level in the next 5-10 yrs.


FYI, if a person CPF acct has $1m by age 55 now. It will set a side retirement acct, RA = $161k & Medisave acct = $49.5k. The bal $1m - 161k - 49.5 =$789,500 can be withdrawn in one lump sum or any time U want at age 55. CPF will be very happy if U will to withdraw all $789,500. But I believe majorities will leave it at their CPF acct to earn RISK FREE higher interest of 20k plus every year.

[proud owner]

Many people do not have the discipline to save money. Committing to a house ensures they can save. And by the way, people are willing to lose at least 1k per month on car but tell them to invest additional 1k, they scared like hell.... They worry about their job (security) but depreciation of 10k per year (not including insurance, petrol, road tax, maintenance, etc) and they are ok with it. It is all in the mindset.

I totally concur with you ...

see so many youngsters driving fancy cars .... but cash wise .... they have little savings.


apart from mindset, its also about the upbringing ...

to date, i still very rarely shop ...

my wife always complain i dress sloppily.. or that i am still putting on T shirts i bought 10 years ago..

to me ... the older the T shirt, the more comfortable they are hahahah

If it aint broken, dont fix it ....

If it is still wear-able, why throw away ?

of course when it comes to special occasions, i do put on something appropriate lah ... usually branded clothes that i bought oversea that are still cheaper than if purchased in SG.

[proud owner]

Niece purchase Aquarius by the park at 1.08 mil and say still holding it. Rental @ 2,500 per month. Say downpayment 200k. Loan 800k. 30 yr loan. Monthly installment is 3k per month at 2% interest.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/proje...park-46/rent/1
She needs to pay monthly - 250 for maintenance, 110 for agent fee (2 years pay 1 month), miscellaneous - 140. Total 500 per month.

All in all, she folks out 3.5k and get rental 2.5k. She tops up the 1 k from cpf or use cash.
She loses 12k per year. Over 30 years - 360k.
Her total investment is 200 + 360 = 560k. House fully paid after 30 years. Monthly rental stays at 2.5k which is a cheap rate. How much is a 5 room HDB renting at????

When she retires, she will collect 2 k every month. I am painting a very bad rental rate.

Do you think Aquarius will be 500k after 30 year ????? You can always rely on cpf as safety net to service the loan. Collect the rental and save and invest in bonds later. The interest you pay on cpf is actually your money. Hahahaha. So it goes back into your account.

I don't believe in putting money into cpf. The money gets stuck there. When it is emergency, u cannot redraw it. Especially when a person reaches 40+ and is fearful of losing his job. When he loses his job, he needs cash, not cpf. All expenses use cash.

If he has a house, he can encash it somehow.... Increase cpf payment and receive rental in cash - food for thought.

Property is brick and mortar..... Bonds can kaput. Property won't. As a safety net, property is safer especially when 1 cannot afford to lose it (the investment).

Different thinking.... No right, no wrong.... Options available.

Hi Bro chestnut,

You are right mostly.

Just to add on, there are several areas in SG that the property prices barely moved.

D23 Hillview when the rest of SG was booming, they stayed the same thru 2006 to maybe 2012/3.
If it wasnt for the DT line ...i feel it will stay unchanged.

D16...the little brother of D15 ...but the poorer brother ...
it is a nice area to LIVE, but i always feel its rentability is much lower than D15.
D26/28 ... very much a retirement area ... No Schools, not much amenities ... But very nice living environment


the above areas prices remain very affordable...

so for those who are buying for investment, do some research first

in 2009, when i came back for Home Leave during chinese new year, i went to view landed houses at D28 hahahah
many didnt want to show cos they were busy preparing for new year.
at that time the landed there were ...can get at 900 psf, maybe lower ...

i planned to buy and rebuild ... for retirement ... but my wife didnt like the location ... so didnt buy...

after that, a mall was built there ...plus LUXUS project launched ...then D28 started to move up...

[chestnut]

Bro proud owner, didn't know u retired in 2012... I retired in October 2014. Very shiok, catching up on my hobby.

[DC33_2008]

Really envy all of you. Still trying to retire. Just got promoted again and work became less stressful with more brilliant people working for me. Job is also flexible and guaranteed till 67. It would have been easier to decide if work is stressful.

Bro proud owner, didn't know u retired in 2012... I retired in October 2014. Very shiok, catching up on my hobby.

[Arcachon]

I did post on why MARGINAL ppty investors must avoid buying ppty in 2011/2012 (peak). I try to find this message I posted in 2011. I cant find it or I do not know how.

I say that those MARGINAL ppty investors are those who own a HDB with min loan left or fully paid & have excess on 400k to 600k avail for a 2nd ppty investors to buy. I say those group of MARGINAL ppty investors will be better off invest into safe bond like Cheung Kong 5.125% or Singpost 4% SGD perp bond.

Job securities will be a very big issues. When U reach 40+ to 50 yrs old, chances of being retrenched is very high possiblility & U are expected to living beyond 80 or even 90 if they did not plan for their retirement early.

Inflation is a very big issues. KK hospital charges $70 then $90 then $98. I heard now $115 just within 6-7 yrs.
Floss bread from 0.80 to $1.00 to 1.20 $ 1.50 . Now $1.70. etc etc. The cash of $400k to $600k is very precious to them. If those MARIGINAL ppty investors buy during the peak period (2011/201), they will be in real trouble if their job is not secured. Everyday, fired fighting to pay for the related ppty linvestment & may lead to husband /wife quarreling & affect the kids.

If they will to buy Cheung kong 5.125% & pay full amt $250k (min $250 & LTV 50%). It take est 18-19 yrs to
collect coupon close to $250k (not yet include your initial capital of $250k).

I do not know whether those ppty investors who invest into 1-2 bedder (500k to 700k) during the peak period in 2011/2012. After 18-19 yrs, will it become from 500k to 1000k & 700k to 1.4m. Likely not

My niece who invested in D16 condo in 1997 ($900psf during peak). It only break even (900psf) only After 15-18 yrs. I believe it will stay around $900osf for many yrs due to the excess supply & also not so good location. Maybe it will be better after the MRT is completed in 2020. By the time, the ppty is really old (23 yrs) & need more sinking fund. Bayshore park is one of the old condo now have problem.

If I am them with 400k to 600k cash, I will invest into a safe fixed income like Cheung Kong 5.125% perp bond or other. The $12800 coupon received yearly, I will dump (1k cash contribution monthly through AXS atm) it into my CPF for wife/husband future retirement or buy into a tokio marine saving plan 12k/yr for 5 yrs & lock in for another 10 yrs (can be 15 yrs) . Return projected 4.2%-4.5%.

50k to 80k emergency fund into Fixed deposit. Another 30k-40k liquidilty cash at POSB for daliy expenses.
Bal buy into dividend or global fund during the bear mkt. If it is around peak period, just temporary buy into
fullleration fixed income fund (est 3% rtn) 1st. When opportunities comes (mkt deep correction) switch to higher risk fund like 1st state dividend , Schroder Asian fund etc etc. If U have higher risk profile, buy into
individual blue chip or reit or some US stock like Apple , starbuck etc.

Must buy insurance early for their kids prefer TERM insurance or yourself. I bought CI term insurance very early for my 2 kids. Each pays $431/yr insure $171k. If I will to buy whole + CI, it will be >$1800. The return will depend on the participating fund performance. Liekly to be low 2% to 3.5%. In 1988, I bought a whole policy. Projected return low 5.12% & high 9% at that time (1988). After >$25 yrs, the return is only 1.88%. So I terminated it to put into my CPF (2.5% to 4%). My tgt for my CPF $ before age 60 is $1m.

The rich (not MARIGINAL) ppty investors like U will not have any problem servicing the loan & can afford to hold 20-30 yrs. I still believe in ppty investment but max is only 1 HDB & 1 CONDO.

http://www.condosingapore.com/forums...-THREAD/page34

[cbsh38584]

http://www.condosingapore.com/forums...-THREAD/page34

Thank for the link. There is another more detail post I have written in 2011/2012. Anyway, we shall see how the MARIGINAL ppty investors who invested in 2011/2012 their investment return in another five yr, 2021/2022.

[chestnut]

2011, Govt announce cooling measures 4 as follows

http://www.srx.com.sg/cooling-measures
http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Even+m...res+announced/

Key points
First loan 80%, second loan 60%.

2 scenarios
1. First house fully paid , second house can borrow 80%
2. First house on loan, second investment house can borrow 60%.

We are talking about investment property here.....
For scenario number 1. If first house fully paid. No more mortgage.... Borrow 80%. If anything wrong, lose job etc... Can use rental to cover mortgage, if rental not enough, can use cpf. If lose job, can use balance cpf to tahan.... This people need to know how to use their brains... There is always a solution to a problem.... I'm f cannot tahan, sell car...

For scenario no 2. This group of people paid 40% of the downpayment.... The rental can definitely cover the mortgage. If their demands for rental is not ridiculous, they can definitely rent out their unit.

Don't look at 5 years. Look at 30 years or 25 years or 20 years (tenure of the loan).
After the tenure, the house is yours. Tenant paid for the house.... Many people I know regretted not buying when they are young. As a person reach 45. He can only loan max 20 years. Max loan to age 65.

If a person thinks long term. He will let the tenant pay for his property and will get income from the property when he/she retires.... Take it like endowment ( and the weird part, many people buy endowment plans, life plan, etc....) all this money can be used towards housing and taking up term to cover the housing loan.

[chestnut]

Think, plan, execute.... There will always be problems along the way, just find solutions..... If one always think of the problems ahead, there is no moving forward for the person.

[Amber Woods]

If the MARGINAL investors will to buy between 2006 to 2009, they need not have to be worrying about losing jobs, falling rental or rising interest rate. If the MARGINAL investors bought during the peak in 2011/2012, they not only have to worry about all these and they would also have sleepless nights and stressful days. Why risk going through all these if you could avoid them. Learn form the savvy and learn from the rich. These people rarely buy during the peak or near peak.

If these MARGINAL investors missed the boat to buy between 2006 to 2009 because they did not safe enough then or their jobs then were not safe, please learn and move forward when opportunity comes around in the next few years. Meanwhile put your money in INVESTMENT GRADE bonds and wait for opportunity. While your loan tenure in the future may be shorten due to your delay in purchasing, you should take this period to save more and hence reduce your loan quantum when the time comes. You probably can meet TDSR with a higher initial down payment by then.

So, if you have $300K to invest now, think about carefully whether to buy property now (at current peak) or invest in INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS and wait for opportunity to enter the market at more comfortable price. However, some people will find current price comfortable because they believe that prices are stable now and they can "tahan" in the worst case scenario; then go ahead.

Ten or fifteen years later, the person who buy at the peak may well still be struggling to service his mortgage while the person buying at lower price later could be buying another property. That is the difference between buying at the peak and buying at lower price.

[chestnut]

I don't understand what is a marginal investor????? The Govt already came out with the measure on ltv in 2011. All marginal investors were wiped out in 2011. That was my message to csbh....

[chestnut]

How can a marginal investor buy investment property in 2011 onwards when ltv for 2nd loan is 60% on second loan or 80% with no loan.

[chestnut]

I am not encouraging buying second investment property.... I am just sharing my analysis with csbh on his statement of 2011 marginal investor. It is alright to contradict. Those who missed buying before ABSD kicked in, just live with it or wait for Govt to remove it at a much later time. The Govt did a good job of implementing cooling measures. If not, the property market would have sky rocketed and a big fall would follow. It would have been worst for Singapore as a whole if price continued its rise and a drastic fall following it.

[teddybear]

I think you have the bias, that is why you cannot see the reality that actually lower LTV makes more people become marginal investors and causes the higher probability that more people will end up getting their property auctioned off by banks when crash time comes!!!!!!!.........

So FACT: Lower LTV for property doesn't mean investing in property is safer for the investor (in fact, is make it more dangerous)!

Let's look at the 2 scenario for the same person:
1) LTV 80% on 2nd loan
2) LTV 60% on 2nd loan

If the person is able to afford LTV 60%, that means he can afford LTV of 80%.
In the second scenario, may be the person just have 40% cash (vs property price) and put all down into property and left little cash for emergency (eg lose job, no tenant, which are all likely to happen at the same time when time is bad (eg global financial crisis and global economic recession)!

Now compare to 1st scenario when the person put 20% downpayment and still hold 20% cash, in this case he will have cash to withstand losing job, having no tenant for his investment property etc.

So conclusions:
1) Lower LTV causes more people to become marginal property investors!

2) Lower LTV likely will cause more people to end up their investment property being auctioned off at cheapskate price by the bank when crash time comes!

Now, given above facts, who really want to have lower LTV and how can lower LTV make investing in property safer???

How can a marginal investor buy investment property in 2011 onwards when ltv for 2nd loan is 60% on second loan or 80% with no loan.

[chestnut]

400k down, 600k loan. Monthly repayment over 30 years at 2% = $2,217
@3% = $2,529

Can rent out at how much to ensure got tenant????

1st house fully paid... So cpf go to cpf account. Right???? Assuming use cash to pay mortgage. Max cpf into account - don't know exact amount. Let's take 1,500 per month. This translates to $18k per year. From 2011 to end 2015. That is 5 years. That is cpf savings of $90k. Right??? Can use this to tahan????

http://blog.moneysmart.sg/opinion/bu...g-to-cost-you/

[chestnut]

If ltv is 80%, person downs 200k w no spare and borrow ltv 800k. Vs ltv 60%, person downs 400k w no spare and borrow 600k. Which is more marginal????

[chestnut]

Ok. I am stopping here. This is a Bond thread after all.... I am just replying to csbh for him to think about his analysis....

[Citizen]

It is easier to quarrel with aggressive person than to talk with a unreasonable and stubborn person.