Some invest for yield, some just want to flip.
Some invest for yield but flip when an irresistible offer comes along.
Newbie
Some invest for yield, some just want to flip.
Some invest for yield but flip when an irresistible offer comes along.
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A for me without need for further thinking
Junior
this one?Originally Posted by chestnut
"how to win friends and influence people" by Dale Carnegie
Junior
Yup. This book has so many life experiences dating back so many decades ago which is very applicable in todays market. This book is a MUST read for the young generation who grew up with computers and lack the interacting skills. This will give the new kid on the block an edge against his/her peers. Bro/sis Laguna, trust me, get this book for your kid. This will allow him/her to interact with people and understand how they think if they can apply the principles.
He has other books like - How to stop worrying and start living.
I give this book to all my direct reports and insist they read !!!
Junior
Thank a lot
ya, I have this in my collection and my children have read it...
GOD good old days
If for investment, choice A.
For own stay, depends. Too many factors to simplify in one post.
Junior
Wa, you damn champion. I read this at age 16 and applied it and success rate 80%.
Junior
Those who buy new for 3 main reasons:-
1) Cash Flows - cash outflows deferred. Can save up during that time
2) Can "borrow" renovation costs - most new condos come with new and nicer fixtures and kitchen appliances which is package deal which means hor those with no money for such things is happy they effectively no need to pay for such things upfront. That is what somebody told me before. No money to renovate, buy new means everythings goes into 30 year loan
3) Singaporeans generally follow trends blindly. So current trend is steel and glass so all new condos = glass and steel box = classy.
Junior
Could you hire me?
Junior
No......
Bro, if you are real, you have to start thinking. If I were to put it bluntly, all the sharing I gave has fallen on deaf ears. Really bro, do some soul searching. I hope I dont project myself to be telling you off but really bro, you have to start learning how to fish and know the technique instead of thinking of getting a boat to catch marlin.
Lastly, I really will not want to meet anyone in person but I am indeed sincere to share my knowledge. Some people may frown at it but if 5% can learn from knowledge, I already happy. I am sharing because along the way, I have met people who shared with me and I need to pass on this good deed.
Bro, really, at least read the book I suggest. This may give u a head start.
Last edited by chestnut; 19-10-12 at 11:57.
Triple Crown
Let's narrow the scope then.
Say the buyer is very flexible; can buy and move in straight away, can also buy and wait 5 years before moving in.
Junior
Bro Secretariat,
Can I know what you are trying to derive at so I can share my views?
Triple Crown
Hosay liao, bro...
I am just trying to understand if CM6, the latest CM, does change the dynamic of property buying, a swing from the preference of new launches to new property getting TOP soon and in 2013.
Newbie
Bro Secretariat,
As bro Kanarazu mentioned before, "another way of looking at affordability is quantum"
In the recent almost sold out Kovan Regency, if you compare it with Kovan Residence (TOP about 1 yr ago), I noticed that for the price you pay for a 2 bedroom in K Residence, you can get a 3 bedroom Compact in K. Regency. Similarly, 3 bedrm in K Residence can get you a 4 bedrm in K Regency.
Of course the very big downside is that for K Regency, the living and dinning are really small. Heard that many bought K Regency for own stay and they doesn't seem to mind. Of course my observation may be wrong
Triple Crown
Wah, your EQ is power leh...No......
Bro, if you are real, you have to start thinking. If I were to put it bluntly, all the sharing I gave has fallen on deaf ears. Really bro, do some soul searching. I hope I dont project myself to be telling you off but really bro, you have to start learning how to fish and know the technique instead of thinking of getting a boat to catch marlin.
Lastly, I really will not want to meet anyone in person but I am indeed sincere to share my knowledge. Some people may frown at it but if 5% can learn from knowledge, I already happy. I am sharing because along the way, I have met people who shared with me and I need to pass on this good deed.
Bro, really, at least read the book I suggest. This may give u a head start.
Can attract....? Hahaha
Triple Crown
Thanks bro for the info.
I am actually trying to look at the finance part of the equation post-CM6, how a buyer will choose between a new launch and a new unit getting TOP soon.
By "finance", to further clarify, it refers to how to deploy his fund.
Junior
Hi. It is a pity to learn of your decision.No......
Bro, if you are real, you have to start thinking. If I were to put it bluntly, all the sharing I gave has fallen on deaf ears. Really bro, do some soul searching. I hope I dont project myself to be telling you off but really bro, you have to start learning how to fish and know the technique instead of thinking of getting a boat to catch marlin.
Lastly, I really will not want to meet anyone in person but I am indeed sincere to share my knowledge. Some people may frown at it but if 5% can learn from knowledge, I already happy. I am sharing because along the way, I have met people who shared with me and I need to pass on this good deed.
Bro, really, at least read the book I suggest. This may give u a head start.
I will see if I can download the book for free then.
GOD good old days
Still too general.
Why is buyer buying it for? Why is he moving? Upgrade? Downgrade? Stay near parents/school/work/personal reasons?
For finance part, the choice is obvious. But for personal or other reasons, very hard to tell...
Junior
Bro Secretariat, here goes, with the limited resources I have. So along the way, I will need help to get some answers so we can progress. OK? All of you must assist me, can? And this can be quite long, so bear with me and hamtam me so I can think harder. I need stats from u guys then together we can form a supercomputer.
1st, lets not look at CM first.
The market today
1. How many % of the buyers today are investors and how % are buyers to stay? I give the 80/20 rule again. I believe that the buyers today are home buyers and the make up is about 70-80% of home occupiers with the balance being investors. How I derived at this. In a typical condo and the bulk being OCR/RCR (let not talk about CCR in this topic). I typically see 20-30% being rented out. OF course there are some who buy the condo and stay in it and rent out their HDB. I have lumped this into the 20-30% ratio. At this point, please correct me if I am wrong because it will affect the rest.
2. So if the majority of the buyers are typical home owners (you see the data in this forum is more skewed because we have many investors). What do this home buyers prefer? Typically, they prefer new. Why? Because they can see the showroom, they can choose the floor they want. They can choose the size of the house. It is like going supermarket. Think of the purchase of the car. A wise investor will buy a second hand car but still many buy new because of the "song/shiok" feeling. You can never discount this because this is the behaviour since the early days. If they want resale, this buyers will need to go unit to unit - sun facing cannot, run down cannot, this cannot and that cannot. So that's why new sells. Lots of choices at 1 site. Only when new becomes unreachable, resale kicks in.
3. So it is the home buyers that are driving up the pricing. The smart investors sees this and participates before or in the run up. The trader see opportunities and flips.
So we need to look at the majority of the buyers and not the investors that determine the rise. The investors can never buy so many units to cause the run up of the price.
4. HDB occupies about 80% of the market. Every year, how many % from this market will have people climbing up the ladder? How many will start earning > 15K. Such information should be available but I am too lazy to find out. If lets say this group of people form 5% fromm the entire hdb market. There will be 5%x80% = 4% of the entire housing will have the potential to upgrade. So let's say half decides to dive in. This means there will be 2% of the entire market trying to get in. 2% of 1 million dwellings works out to be 20,000 trying to enter the market. Now this number is correct with the assumption of 1 or the following : a.Job stability b.Aspiration of the folks to upgrade c.hdb paid fully paid up(the numbers will also determine how many can now enter private for this), please add more.
5. There is the herd mentality involved here - We are all animals. We will follow the herd. So when the market is up, do you want to take advantage, some will, some say u stupid. I am neither for nor against, the risk is yours to take. So the question is as the group is formed by the herd, it will get larger and larger. My question to all is how big is this group today and how many more can/will come in? My opinion, and this is my opinion (you form your own - but please dont tell me u are right and I am wrong or you are wrong and I am right - this is purely for discussion). My opinion is the group formation is not big yet. But if a black swan strikes, every thing will drop. You dont even need a bubble to be pricked. Basic needs will be more important then the house. Once you lose your job, you will first sell your car, then stocks, then burn your cash (in any order please - depending on the person who loses his job) but definitely last in line is the house u stay in. That's why people always say properties lag stocks/shares in the run up and the sell down.
So I like to view it as who are major influences to the property run-up, it is not the investors in my opinion but the occupiers.
I really dont know how % of the private condos are rented out but I reckon 20-30%. Now if the data is wrong, then my analysis is totally wrong and so please forgive me. Then I will re-analyse the situation. But I strongly believe that the rental market is definitely smaller then home occupier market. If I am proven wrong on this, I will be very scared and start letting go of my units because there is a cause for concern.
Let's dwell further on this and make this an interesting discussion with inputs from all of you.
GOD good old days
Also depends on the size of the unit. Smaller means likely for rental yield. Used to be MM can be champion capital appreciation but now it's getting harder and harder.
Bigger units (3br and above in OCR) on the other hand is more for own stay. These are likely upgraders from HDB.
2 br units of about 800sf is the best bet for investing. Easy to rent, easy to sell. Lower quantum also.
Junior
Bro, exactly, so many variables right??? But how many % of the make-up are rental and how many % are home occupiers from a general market. If not, there will be no end to this topic. So if not, the TS needs to identify a particular market and we can begin from there. If not landed will pop up and within it so many classes. Then CCR will pop up, 3 diff district, etc.... I think TS looking at main stream. So I target main stream with is my qualifier of OCR/RCR.
Leeds
Maybe, I could offer some input on this. Having spoken with some property consultants involved in collective sale, typically, the the percentage of rented units in most development is between 35-40%. My own development is close to 40%.
I really dont know how % of the private condos are rented out but I reckon 20-30%. Now if the data is wrong, then my analysis is totally wrong and so please forgive me. Then I will re-analyse the situation. But I strongly believe that the rental market is definitely smaller then home occupier market. If I am proven wrong on this, I will be very scared and start letting go of my units because there is a cause for concern.
Let's dwell further on this and make this an interesting discussion with inputs from all of you.
Junior
Bro, there are 200K pte. assume 40% means 80k pte rented out. I really dont think so high leh.
I will surf in free time. IRAS should have the numbers based on rental stamp duty.
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chestnut, your surname don't happen to start with letter G?
My ex boss gave that exact 'How to stop worrying and start living' book to me on my birthday.
Junior
Huh, you are that person I gave to???
Nope, not G. hahaha. Did you enjoy the book?
Junior
Secretariat, I think you better buy me coffee for all this damn hard work. On top of that, I laying off props some more.
I called my agent to give me the info for 1 year and quarterly then I post real number. Surf the web until give up. Stay tuned.
Triple Crown
Aiyo bro, I am also surfing leh...hahaha. Coffee anytime la.
OK, two figures I think around there...
Number of non-landed residential property 190,000 plus, let's round up to 200,000
Number of rental transactions per year 30,000
Junior
I also think around there leh. 80/20 rule. My agent cannot get figure and still checking. So based on this, the market is actually driven by home occupiers and hdb upgraders. This looks very similar to the run up in 1997 where upgraders were the ones driving the price once HDB prices started to shoot up. Cycle repeats itself man.
Junior
I've done this analysis before on the number of units out there versus teh number of people needing a roof (be it tenant or owners).Bro Secretariat, here goes, with the limited resources I have. So along the way, I will need help to get some answers so we can progress. OK? All of you must assist me, can? And this can be quite long, so bear with me and hamtam me so I can think harder. I need stats from u guys then together we can form a supercomputer.
So I like to view it as who are major influences to the property run-up, it is not the investors in my opinion but the occupiers.
I really dont know how % of the private condos are rented out but I reckon 20-30%. Now if the data is wrong, then my analysis is totally wrong and so please forgive me. Then I will re-analyse the situation. But I strongly believe that the rental market is definitely smaller then home occupier market. If I am proven wrong on this, I will be very scared and start letting go of my units because there is a cause for concern.
Let's dwell further on this and make this an interesting discussion with inputs from all of you.
You need to figure out how many are white collar, blue collar, construction related.
Souce :- http://www.mom.gov.sg/statistics-pub...ceNumbers.aspx
Pass Type As at Dec 2011
Employment Pass (EP) 176,000
S Pass 113,000
Work Permit (Total) 908,000
- Work Permit (Foreign Domestic Worker) 206,000
- Work Permit (Construction) 264,000
Total Foreign Workforce Around 1.19 million
So, let's work on these figures.
So, Work Permit holders account for almost 76% of the 1.2mil foreign workforce. These people do not need homes as they are housed within dormitories or employers' residence.
So we are left with the S-Pass (usually the service industry and lower wage office workers) and the EPs(the higher wages office workers).
The S-Pass holders usually congregates with each other(most without bringing family over) with min. of 4 pax per unit (but it is 8pax usually for those waitresses and cooks and drivers etc). So, let's divide, 113k S-pass with 4 pax which will give you the max units needed to house them of 113/4 = 28k units.
The EP holders will have some families and some singles, so let's assumed half of them are families and half are singles, so the amount of units needed to be 176k/2 = 88k units.
Adding all up, you need a supply of around 28k + 88k = 116k units.
Do not, this is the demand needed. Not the SUPPLY created during the boom years like you mentioned.
So now matching supply with demand.. we should use the SUPPLY of ALL outstanding units in singapore up for rental (HDB + condos, we'l ignore landed).
Again, googling for some info , turns up .. http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-44e1.pdf
Condos completed units
- available 270.9k
- occupied 254.7k
- vacant 16.1k
- Vacancy rate 6%
Condos supply pipeline
- under construction 49.5k
- planned (ignored this since planned can be deferred but under construtions mean supply will be created definitely).
This is only the condos hor.. i haven't counted the hdbs.
Assumed, one third of condos(33.33%) are rented out while the rest are actually owner-occupied. So there is an availability for rental of 270.9k/3 = 90.3k units available for rent.
Ok, let's assumed only EP holders rent private.. you will see from te previous research, we need 88K units. Now, we have 90.3k units COMPLETED(not counting the under construction ones), so the demand and supply is matched. Surprising... if you look at 88k/90.3k = 97.5% of all rental units available.
The Vacancy rate was indicated as 6%. So, I can only assumed I might have over-estimated the demand while the real figure(the vacancy rate) reflects an oversupply of 6%.
Now, the S-Pass holders.. I am lazy to do research laready... so i just hantam.. 80% of households are living in HDB.. we know roughly it's 5% landed, 15% condos, 80% public..
So, there's 1.44mil HDB available. But let's be conservative and take the 2010 numbers from Mah Bow Tan .
http://www.mnd.gov.sg/reflections_housing/article2.htm
It is 800k HDB households.
So S-pass needs 28k HDB units.. so it's 28/800 = 3.5%.
Only 3.5% of HDB households need to rent out their flat to meet the demand.
Ok.. so now... I am wondering.. do you thiink there is really an under-supply of housing if govt restricts the no. of EP and WP and SP into singapore for the next few years.. (if they do).
Junior
Bro, I think work permit can stay in hdb, right? I remember sands sourcing for hdb to house this workers.
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