Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 96

Thread: Market cycle

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default Market cycle

    Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...

    http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-i...operty-market/

    So, where are we today?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    787

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...

    http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-i...operty-market/

    So, where are we today?


    thanks bro chestnut. thought you are on holidays. interesting article that phases out what many of us already knows.

    i think we are in the flat phase of late bull that is consolidating... going forward, it may continue in either direction, depending on external factors, but at worst probably in a plateau fashion. this is what our govt wants as well.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by lifeline
    thanks bro chestnut. thought you are on holidays. interesting article that phases out what many of us already knows.

    i think we are in the flat phase of late bull that is consolidating... going forward, it may continue in either direction, depending on external factors, but at worst probably in a plateau fashion. this is what our govt wants as well.
    Bro, I travel for a living... Hahaha sort of... My work requires me to travel within se Asia + a few countries....

    I roughly know this but it is very difficult to articulate it... But this link, actually articulates it quite well...

    After the bull, there will always be the bear... U cannot run away from that... Just look out for tell tale signs... If u have 2, difficult to play... U sell 1, bloody price, continue to run, it is diffult to go in again.... Then, by the time it drops, u may be too 'old' and bank shorten your tenure...

    Aiya, to elaborate, too long.... U guys smart enough to know wat I talking about lah... Enjoy the link...

  4. #4
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    616

    Default

    seems like we are at early bear with news of 8 projects with large unsold units. The problem with this statement is with every new launch, the take up rate seems to indicate a new phase of bull . So is there such a term as segmented bull n bear market?

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    2,094

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Bro, I travel for a living... Hahaha sort of... My work requires me to travel within se Asia + a few countries....

    I roughly know this but it is very difficult to articulate it... But this link, actually articulates it quite well...

    After the bull, there will always be the bear... U cannot run away from that... Just look out for tell tale signs... If u have 2, difficult to play... U sell 1, bloody price, continue to run, it is diffult to go in again.... Then, by the time it drops, u may be too 'old' and bank shorten your tenure...

    Aiya, to elaborate, too long.... U guys smart enough to know wat I talking about lah... Enjoy the link...
    bro, do you enjoy your overseas trip?
    eg. tiring?
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    bro, do you enjoy your overseas trip?
    eg. tiring?
    Overseas work trip... I used to travel like taking bus... But nowadays 1 trip every 1 trip every 2 month...ave... More likely 3 trips within a month... Rest 3 month...hahahaha

    I only use my brain,.... The rest of the trip, people entertain me,,, my only fear is FOOD. Too much of it,l. Must be damn discipline to control all the good food in front of me,,,

    Sucker for food...

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    2,094

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Overseas work trip... I used to travel like taking bus... But nowadays 1 trip every 1 trip every 2 month...ave... More likely 3 trips within a month... Rest 3 month...hahahaha

    I only use my brain,.... The rest of the trip, people entertain me,,, my only fear is FOOD. Too much of it,l. Must be damn discipline to control all the good food in front of me,,,

    Sucker for food...
    lol~
    do take care of your health..
    you are what you eat
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    1,163

    Default

    We are in the middle of bull market. Stock prices still a far cry from crazy level. US Interest rate is very low. During end of the bull, penny stocks, even profit losing company stock prices up few times even lousy company also make money. Interest rate will be above 5%. But We still don't see that now. If no cooling measures property price will continue to up by large percentage.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    1,677

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by samuelk
    seems like we are at early bear with news of 8 projects with large unsold units. The problem with this statement is with every new launch, the take up rate seems to indicate a new phase of bull . So is there such a term as segmented bull n bear market?
    those 8 projects are in the luxury segment, which is well controlled by the CM. that's why they are not moving, and "normal" sinkies cannot afford them (me inclusive).

    the new launches nowadays all OCR, within affordability levels, that's why high take up. and with each new CM, some buyers are eliminated, but others jump in for fear of MTB.

    the charts only indicate the general mkt sentiment. in bad times, all are not spared. in good times, all cheong. because of CM, the mkts become segmented. the segmentation is just a minor distraction, now just waiting for global crash. i can say generally we are at end bull, but when will it cross into early bear is anybody's guess.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    2,094

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Shanhz
    now just waiting for global crash. i can say generally we are at end bull, but when will it cross into early bear is anybody's guess.
    many already prepare for a minor dip ~10%
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    1,677

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    many already prepare for a minor dip ~10%
    think most of us are mentally prepared for 10-20% dip. that's what the 80% LTV (or lower) is for.

    the worrying one is when >-40% will come. if ever.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    1,763

    Default

    Ccr not selling because of decentralisation of the cbd. When we purchase ocr at 1000 psqft that is the "new" historical low. U can never buy cheaper in the future.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    2,094

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    Ccr not selling because of decentralisation of the cbd. When we purchase ocr at 1000 psqft that is the "new" historical low. U can never buy cheaper in the future.
    ocr is like around 900-1000psqft nowadays..
    is this just the starting point of some great run only?
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    2,067

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    many already prepare for a minor dip ~10%
    Many prepared years ago after hearing analyst say properties will corrext 50%

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    8,926

    Default

    He just wanna sell his books

    I prefer to read charts at ZeroHedge and arrives at my own conclusion
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    1,763

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    ocr is like around 900-1000psqft nowadays..
    is this just the starting point of some great run only?
    No matter how the economy is doing or how much interest rate chiong, ocr at 1000 psqft is the bottom price. If any lower we would be in jakarta, bangkok, KL price's territory.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    2,067

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...

    http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-i...operty-market/

    So, where are we today?
    Anal ysts are always good at looking things backwards. Otherwise wont be called so rite.

    Anyway, dont time market, buy what u can afford and can hold. Properties are never to be sold anyway (except nonFH), so cycle up down dont apply.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    2,009

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Found this article... Interesting read... Hope u all enjoy...

    http://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-i...operty-market/

    So, where are we today?
    The "late bear" stage seems so short.. very difficult to aim

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    25

    Default

    If 80%LTV is to prepare for 20% crash...so new 60% LTV loan means....

    What the CM is to prepare everyone for the worst..

    This prudence will bring property price down especially now the govt now knows the ones who push the mkt up is neither the buyer or seller. But the banks

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    2,009

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by leesg123
    Many prepared years ago after hearing analyst say properties will correct 50%
    The so-called analyst.. talked BIG BIG correct 50%.. quietly entered the market during the last 2-yrs..

    As for the others.. still waiting & waiting & waiting.. end up cannot tahan.. lan lan act blur do "copy & paste" of bad news lor

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    He just wanna sell his books

    I prefer to read charts at ZeroHedge and arrives at my own conclusion
    Great !!!!!

    I finally found someone who can do some research and have a clue of the next recession... Signs are via charts, historical analyst, happening - like QE which alters the cause, etc....

    But it gives us a clue... Not 100% but an idea...

    Like looking at clouds to predict rain. Weather forecast. 4 Seasons as a guide... Winter does not happen on a specific date... It happens around a certain month...

    Bro, when u spot certain signs, please let me now... I am not a chartist like u... My sign readins are different...

    Thanks


  22. #22
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    460

    Default

    Thanks for the chart Chestnut

    Seems like there are different readings of the chart. Some say we are in the middle of a bull. Some say early bear. I think we are late bull

    Whatever it is, buy if you can afford and also holding power and not get muddied in the amidst of playing the market
    When you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    6,134

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sherlock
    Thanks for the chart Chestnut

    Seems like there are different readings of the chart. Some say we are in the middle of a bull. Some say early bear. I think we are late bull

    Whatever it is, buy if you can afford and also holding power and not get muddied in the amidst of playing the market
    i also say...

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by radha08
    i say before he is the guru...
    Bro, thanks for compliment, but I cannot wear this hat... Please do not call me that... Call me bro, please... If not I will disappear... Really... I am here to learn...

    Bro, for all investments, please be void of emotions... Unless say u bot another home and your first home rent per out... Then don't sell 1st because it holds a lot of happy memory....

    My townhouse in Pasir Panjang is like this... The price is good, rental sucks big time... But refuse to sell because family home for 15 years... My entire family has good memories of it and one of my kids will inherit this place...

    As for the rest of my properties, it is but a ATM machine for my old (oops) mid age retirement....

    Hahahahahah

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sherlock
    Thanks for the chart Chestnut

    Seems like there are different readings of the chart. Some say we are in the middle of a bull. Some say early bear. I think we are late bull

    Whatever it is, buy if you can afford and also holding power and not get muddied in the amidst of playing the market
    Wat I am trying to say is what goes up, must come down... As for the down, it depends on how deep and how long is the recession....

    Now that prices are up, we need to look out for signs of down... I think it will still go up and this year scorecard will show it...how long, how much more, i don't know... We just need to keep looking out of our window to spot dark clouds..

    If it is sunny, let's go out and play....
    ..

  26. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    8,926

    Default

    This thread is so long ... my only contribution is better quickly rent out ... yield compression will strike hard soon
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  27. #27
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    928

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    This thread is so long ... my only contribution is better quickly rent out ... yield compression will strike hard soon
    I agree. But please elaborate your reasons for this outlook. Thanks

  28. #28
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    460

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Wat I am trying to say is what goes up, must come down... As for the down, it depends on how deep and how long is the recession....

    Now that prices are up, we need to look out for signs of down... I think it will still go up and this year scorecard will show it...how long, how much more, i don't know... We just need to keep looking out of our window to spot dark clouds..

    If it is sunny, let's go out and play....
    ..
    Oh yes I agree whole-heartedly on What goes up must come down. I was caught in the 2003 bear and luckily held on (while trying to sell but no takers!) till it recovered and still managed to get one more in 2006 or I'll be crying my heart out till now

    This is a good forum and kudos to all the forummers for sharing their experiences (good or bad) which sometimes you need to pay tuition fees to learn if you want to get involved in the property market.
    When you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth

  29. #29
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    1,763

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    This thread is so long ... my only contribution is better quickly rent out ... yield compression will strike hard soon
    My opinion, yield compression will be insignificant. Come december 15 2015 when asean economy community come into place, singapore will be inundated by wave of asean workers and investors. I don't believe sg gov is purposely building itself into over supply. No other country on earth is as nimble and agile as sg government. Or as forward planning.

  30. #30
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sherlock
    Oh yes I agree whole-heartedly on What goes up must come down. I was caught in the 2003 bear and luckily held on (while trying to sell but no takers!) till it recovered and still managed to get one more in 2006 or I'll be crying my heart out till now

    This is a good forum and kudos to all the forummers for sharing their experiences (good or bad) which sometimes you need to pay tuition fees to learn if you want to get involved in the property market.
    Hahahaha... Bro, I was caught in 97 and went in again in 2005 there abouts... So same route... Learn from mistake and came out smarter...
    Many refrain after the burn....

Similar Threads

  1. Three key phases of major credit cycle: Map of what's to come
    By reporter2 in forum Finance and Legal
    Replies: 0
    -: 05-06-20, 11:34
  2. Property cycle question
    By realestatestudent in forum HDB, EC, commercial and industrial property discussion
    Replies: 11
    -: 28-11-18, 23:21
  3. Singapore property market ‘remains in down cycle’
    By reporter2 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 05-04-16, 19:33
  4. Do you think land price has peaked in this cycle?
    By phantom_opera in forum Coffeeshop Talk
    Replies: 4
    -: 16-12-12, 12:31
  5. Can I still buy at this time of the cycle?
    By Mary Lee in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 169
    -: 08-11-12, 18:37

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •