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Thread: Singapore property will be up some 8% by 2017 - Credit Suisse

  1. #1
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    Default Singapore property will be up some 8% by 2017 - Credit Suisse

    A number of analysts have predicted a drop in Singapore’s home prices due to a large supply of land coming onstream and tighter monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve. But a study by Credit Suisse that was reported in The Business Times predicts that prices will rise some eight percent by 2017.

    “Contrary to the view of many, our analysis shows that prices will only correct marginally by 2017, if the government pushes out the supply of property as aggressively as it has over the last three years through its Government Land Sales (GLS) programme,” said Michael Wan, Analyst at Credit Suisse.

    For private property prices in Singapore to come down, an interest rate shock and/or poor GDP growth is needed, according to the report. It added that while cooling measures have temporarily softened transactions, not all the curbs have been effective in reducing prices.

    If the government continued to release land at the rate of 16,000 units each year, home prices will drop by around one percent in 2017, an indication that a supply glut will most likely not occur.

    “However, if this scenario coincides with a meaningful GDP or interest rate shock, prices would obviously fall much more,” noted the report.

    Credit Suisse defines GDP shock as a situation where output expands by a total of five percent in the next five years, provided loans and the Straits Times Index rise at the same rate.

    Under this scenario, property prices would drop 16 percent. However, the financial institution believes that this is “unlikely” but “not impossible”.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    If everybody is bearish or not sure ... time to buy or hold

    Now finally one analyst is bullish despite mountain of worries
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  3. #3
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    8% by 2017 ?? **YAWN**

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    Default Big EC units are sexy now!!!!!!

    SINGAPORE: All 16 penthouses going at between S$1.3 million and S$1.6 million have been snapped up as sales opened on Friday for yet another Executive Condominium (EC) project in the market.

    => very soon, EC will be all big units
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ikan bilis
    8% by 2017 ?? **YAWN**
    Aiyo, the analyst must give face to Mr Khaw lah ... he wanted to write 88% but editor mis-typed as 8%

    Mr Khaw already headache HDB COV up to 34k and EC penthouse sells like hot cakes
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ikan bilis
    8% by 2017 ?? **YAWN**
    8% too little is it?
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

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    8% is way below inflation rate. Unless he expects a correction in between but nett nett we are 8% higher.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    8% is way below inflation rate. Unless he expects a correction in between but nett nett we are 8% higher.
    must dig out original report to understand ... using some kind of complex modeling may be
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    My take is probably around 5% increase per year, in areas that you can see (increase in actual price) and you cannot see (decrease in quality and design).

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