URA releases flash 4th quarter 2012 private residential property price index

[dtrax]

The URA released today the flash estimate of the price index for private residential property for 4th Quarter 2012.
The overall private residential property index rose from 208.2 points in 3rd Quarter 2012 to 211.9 points in 4th Quarter 2012. This represents an increase of 1.8%, compared to the 0.6% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A). For the year 2012 as a whole, prices of private residential properties increased by about 2.8% (based on preliminary 4Q2012 flash estimate), lower than the 5.9% increase in 2011.
Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 0.8% in Core Central Region in 4th Quarter 2012, compared to an increase of 0.1% in the previous quarter. Prices in Rest of Central Region increased by 0.9%, compared to the 0.8% increase in the previous quarter. For Outside Central Region, prices increased by 3.4% in 4th Quarter 2012, compared to an increase of 1.0% in the previous quarter (see Annex B).
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold by developers. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 4th Quarter 2012 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2013/pr13-01a1.pdf
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2013/pr13-01a2.pdf

[leftfield]

If property index is up only 2.8% but inflation is at 5%, does that mean more upside?

[august]

wah ocr cheong past rcr liao !

[kane]

Cos buyers only have 2 segregations in their mind. Core and non core. A non core place like jurong and tanah merah also can do so well in the past 2 years.

[DKSG]

This is a late catch up by OCR.

The previous bull run saw CCR units cheong at unprecedented speed leaving the OCR behind.

Now OCR is just catching up.

Once OCR catch up to a certain level, it will add pressure to CCR prices.

This is call the theory of concentration.

DKSG

[DKSG]

If property index is up only 2.8% but inflation is at 5%, does that mean more upside?

When property prices were up 10-15% in prior years, we are not experiencing 10-15% inflation leh!

So pty px index does not need to follow exactly inflation rate.

What is of our concern is future inflation with the $40B crashing out shores month after month after month.

Not to mention the Yen crashing our shores also.

DKSG

[kane]

These are ripples, when the real tide comes, I think we need to consider how to deal with the capital flows to preventing the economy from overheating..

[3C]

Not to worry. Some have and will be diverted to our neighbour in the north with the current CMs. Govt has to by all means to prevent the bubble burst otherwise everyone will drown

[kane]

We took a big hit even though substantial amounts were sent to different countries within the region back in 1997.

[Rysk]

Not to worry. Some have and will be diverted to our neighbour in the north with the current CMs. Govt has to by all means to prevent the bubble burst otherwise everyone will drown

Visited some showflats over our neighbour in the north last weekend.. Surprisingly to know that many good location projects selling like hotcake too!! Esp. landed pty

[Laguna]

If property index is up only 2.8% but inflation is at 5%, does that mean more upside?

PPI is quarterly and CPI is yearly %
ie PPI x4 and compare to CPI

[ekl2ekl2]

So whats the 2012 year CPI? increase of 4-5%?

[proud owner]

When property prices were up 10-15% in prior years, we are not experiencing 10-15% inflation leh!

So pty px index does not need to follow exactly inflation rate.

What is of our concern is future inflation with the $40B crashing out shores month after month after month.

Not to mention the Yen crashing our shores also.

DKSG

Bro

Just wondering

Prop prices in many areas have gone up 100 pct from 2006/7 to today

How many singaporeans have had salary increase of say 50 pct?

[Kelonguni]

Bro

Just wondering

Prop prices in many areas have gone up 100 pct from 2006/7 to today

How many singaporeans have had salary increase of say 50 pct?

Have, but only certain sectors where the beginning pay is low and increment is fast.

[kane]

unlike stocks and bonds, a small handful of property buyers and sellers can dictate the direction for everyone else, be it up market or down market.

[chestnut]

Bro

Just wondering

Prop prices in many areas have gone up 100 pct from 2006/7 to today

How many singaporeans have had salary increase of say 50 pct?

That's the price to pay for being a "developed" country....

Look at the cities in the developed countries and u will have a feel of where we are heading...

[richwang]

Not to worry lah, many Singapreans' debt has increased for more than 100%.

Cheers!
Richard

[leftfield]

PPI is quarterly and CPI is yearly %
ie PPI x4 and compare to CPI

Not x4 but compounded. so if assume every quarter 2.8% growth, it's 2.8% x 1.028 X 1.028 x 1.028 = 3.04%.