Landed Property - Going Forward (2013)

[hutsutau]

Thanks. Hope this pacifies everyone.

It's a free market. Let he who takes the biggest risk harvest the biggest gain.

Greater risk also means the greatest free fall possible. Despite land shortage, a combination of factors like much greater absolute quantum, interest rate increase, lack of rental demand, plus can only sell to Singaporeans or new citizens, means that if and when price drops, few will buy even if they are eligible or has the ability to.

So please be patient if one is adamant about this segment of housing... Risks still outweigh gains for me.

Got to agree with you.
interest rate will go up definitely. It is a matter of time.

[thomaspaine]

Got to agree with you.
interest rate will go up definitely. It is a matter of time.

Interest rates are at historical lows - so its a no brainer. The question and worry should be - by what quantum.

I tend to think Singapore interest rates will only edge higher and not jump as most fear.

1. USA seems to be recovering but rates there cannot go very high because unemployment is still unacceptable high. As stock markets edge higher, markets will adjust rates higher - but I doubt the FED will raise FED funds any time soon. Hence, yield curve will steepen a little but short term rates will remain LOW.

2. Europe is still 3 steps behind USA's recovery - hence no need to say more.

3. MAS does not have an interest policy but uses FX to 'fight' inflation . Unless Singapore's economy becomes red hot , I think the upside potential for rates here (short term) can only be 100-120bp based on current situation.

[hutsutau]

Interest rates are at historical lows - so its a no brainer. The question and worry should be - by what quantum.

I tend to think Singapore interest rates will only edge higher and not jump as most fear.

1. USA seems to be recovering but rates there cannot go very high because unemployment is still unacceptable high. As stock markets edge higher, markets will adjust rates higher - but I doubt the FED will raise FED funds any time soon. Hence, yield curve will steepen a little but short term rates will remain LOW.

2. Europe is still 3 steps behind USA's recovery - hence no need to say more.

3. MAS does not have an interest policy but uses FX to 'fight' inflation . Unless Singapore's economy becomes red hot , I think the upside potential for rates here (short term) can only be 100-120bp based on current situation.

But we have to take into account that the landed property market has outpaced the general market. SO I think it is due for the correction

[thomaspaine]

But we have to take into account that the landed property market has outpaced the general market. SO I think it is due for the correction

I was commenting on your statement that interest rates will surely RISE .

Landed correction ? I really dunno...that's why I started this thread to listen to other opinions.

Thanks

[lajia]

I just want to offer my view as a thinker for u. At the moment, if I'm not wrong, there are only slightly more than 70k landed units in Singapore. There are more than 1.15mil household as of 2012. do u think this 6% units is a lot? This 6% of total including hdb, condo, etc, will only drop as garmen ramp up building more hdb and developer ramp up building more condo. So, why do you think the price will drop?? Because no demand?? Over supply?? This is a basic economic equation of supply and demand. Of course, there are also other factors which will affect the pricing of landed.
But looking ahead, with not many units up for grap, I don't think the price will drop.
Remember, only 6% of residential units are landed, including cluster houses. This percentage will only drop for sure. Demand is there as population increase but for supply, I don't think so or even if there is, it will not be sufficient to cope with the raising demand.
Your call....

[MLP]

Your statement about landed property prices have outpaced the general property is wrong. If you compare property prices based on psf, you will find that landed property prices are actually lower than many condos in the same area.

Do you know that due to the fact that government wants to restrict purchase of landed properties by foreigners, their prices have not gone up in line with the condo prices. In other word, the prices of landed property prices are artificially suppressed by government policy.

As we know, Singapore is considered a Safe Haven for many rich people. All these people want is to invest in properties especially landed properties. Barring any unforeseen circumstances like SARS, wars, etc., the demand for landed property segment will remain very strong...

But we have to take into account that the landed property market has outpaced the general market. SO I think it is due for the correction

[bullman]

I just want to offer my view as a thinker for u. At the moment, if I'm not wrong, there are only slightly more than 70k landed units in Singapore. There are more than 1.15mil household as of 2012. do u think this 6% units is a lot? This 6% of total including hdb, condo, etc, will only drop as garmen ramp up building more hdb and developer ramp up building more condo. So, why do you think the price will drop?? Because no demand?? Over supply?? This is a basic economic equation of supply and demand. Of course, there are also other factors which will affect the pricing of landed.
But looking ahead, with not many units up for grap, I don't think the price will drop.
Remember, only 6% of residential units are landed, including cluster houses. This percentage will only drop for sure. Demand is there as population increase but for supply, I don't think so or even if there is, it will not be sufficient to cope with the raising demand.
Your call....

There was also a discussion earlier regarding the number of FH landed out of this 70+k landed which includes LH and Cluster. The final number is indeed ooh la la.

[lajia]

i can agree with u, in general, condo psf is much higher than normal landed terrace or semi-d or cluster in the same district.
Eg.
D22, 2185 sqft terrace (3 storey) about 1.7mil, psf=780
D22, EC 1300 sqft about 1.1+mil, psf=800

D27, cluster 3498sqft about 1.6+mil, psf=477
D27, Condo 1076sqft about 1.3+mil, psf=1200+


there are many many eg., so in term of built up area or in terms of land psf, condo price run up is worst, because they are expose to foreigner buying...

Your statement about landed property prices have outpaced the general property is wrong. If you compare property prices based on psf, you will find that landed property prices are actually lower than many condos in the same area.

Do you know that due to the fact that government wants to restrict purchase of landed properties by foreigners, their prices have not gone up in line with the condo prices. In other word, the prices of landed property prices are artificially suppressed by government policy.

As we know, Singapore is considered a Safe Haven for many rich people. All these people want is to invest in properties especially landed properties. Barring any unforeseen circumstances like SARS, wars, etc., the demand for landed property segment will remain very strong...

[hutsutau]

i can agree with u, in general, condo psf is much higher than normal landed terrace or semi-d or cluster in the same district.
Eg.
D22, 2185 sqft terrace (3 storey) about 1.7mil, psf=780
D22, EC 1300 sqft about 1.1+mil, psf=800

D27, cluster 3498sqft about 1.6+mil, psf=477
D27, Condo 1076sqft about 1.3+mil, psf=1200+


there are many many eg., so in term of built up area or in terms of land psf, condo price run up is worst, because they are expose to foreigner buying...

Even within the same estate like d'leedon and interlace the psf for the cluster houses are much lower. Of course they are also bigger and will eventually be more expensive

[thomaspaine]

As we know, Singapore is considered a Safe Haven for many rich people. All these people want is to invest in properties especially landed properties. Barring any unforeseen circumstances like SARS, wars, etc., the demand for landed property segment will remain very strong...

LANDED in Singapore is indeed VERY CHEAP vis-a-vis landed in HKG !

[lajia]

as the younger generation become very dependent on their parents, you would see increasing multi-gen families with all living under one roof. In a way living together is good but , maybe some are doing it out of the wrong causes... There are ppl who stay together so that they can take care of each others....but there are some who just want to take advantage of the situations...
Having said that, the demand for bigger unit condo or demand for landed with more rooms, will trend higher. And with cluster landed offering more storeys with rooms (offers more privacy), or landed with bigger buildup areas with more rooms, these will be of great demand in future. Limited supply, high demand as population grows. Why landed? As you compare landed buildup areas psf and condo psf, you will know it is more worthwhile getting landed with lower psf.
for own stay and capital appreciation....not talking about rental.
just my two cents.

[Ringo33]

as the younger generation become very dependent on their parents, you would see increasing multi-gen families with all living under one roof. In a way living together is good but , maybe some are doing it out of the wrong causes... There are ppl who stay together so that they can take care of each others....but there are some who just want to take advantage of the situations...
Having said that, the demand for bigger unit condo or demand for landed with more rooms, will trend higher. And with cluster landed offering more storeys with rooms (offers more privacy), or landed with bigger buildup areas with more rooms, these will be of great demand in future. Limited supply, high demand as population grows. Why landed? As you compare landed buildup areas psf and condo psf, you will know it is more worthwhile getting landed with lower psf.
for own stay and capital appreciation....not talking about rental.
just my two cents.

There is absolutely no evidence of what you said that is happening here in Singapore. Kid dependent and wanting to live with their parents or in laws?
If they need to depend on their parents, do you think they can afford to live in landed property in Singapore?

I think you are living in self denial lah.

[lajia]

what are you talking about?? u oppose until very high lately iszit?? dont u know that there are more dual key units nowadays? didnt u see the 2 mil EC purchased by the parents? so the couple who bought that unit isnt they dependent on their parent? with that 2mil, dont u think they can stay in landed also?? the parents bought it...come on la...
what self denial are you talking about? again, i am not going into this with u....sai hey...

There is absolutely no evidence of what you said that is happening here in Singapore. Kid dependent and wanting to live with their parents or in laws?
If they need to depend on their parents, do you think they can afford to live in landed property in Singapore?

I think you are living in self denial lah.

[Ringo33]

what are you talking about?? u oppose until very high lately iszit?? dont u know that there are more dual key units nowadays? didnt u see the 2 mil EC purchased by the parents? so the couple who bought that unit isnt they dependent on their parent? with that 2mil, dont u think they can stay in landed also?? the parents bought it...come on la...
what self denial are you talking about? again, i am not going into this with u....sai hey...

AFAIK, the attractiveness of dual key apartments to a buyer is the ability to rent out section of the apartment and use the rental to subsidize the living cost. This is developers smart marketing tactic to make housing more affordable.

Btw, how many dual key units are there in the market right now?

[Jaykj]

as the younger generation become very dependent on their parents, you would see increasing multi-gen families with all living under one roof. In a way living together is good but , maybe some are doing it out of the wrong causes... There are ppl who stay together so that they can take care of each others....but there are some who just want to take advantage of the situations...
Having said that, the demand for bigger unit condo or demand for landed with more rooms, will trend higher. And with cluster landed offering more storeys with rooms (offers more privacy), or landed with bigger buildup areas with more rooms, these will be of great demand in future. Limited supply, high demand as population grows. Why landed? As you compare landed buildup areas psf and condo psf, you will know it is more worthwhile getting landed with lower psf.
for own stay and capital appreciation....not talking about rental.
just my two cents.

I'm with you on this....overall, its still cheaper to buy landed or cluster and all 3 generation stay together compared to separate condos for each family nucleus. In fact, there are even economies of scale and grand parents can help care for grand-children and the children can also care for the aged parents later on. The only issue is whether one's wife or mother is willing to stay with each other under 1 roof or not....I know both of mine are not willing, even though my wife is on very good terms with my mum

If I have my way, I would also stay in a landed/ cluster with my parents.....

[Ringo33]

I'm with you on this....overall, its still cheaper to buy landed or cluster and all 3 generation stay together compared to separate condos for each family nucleus. In fact, there are even economies of scale and grand parents can help care for grand-children and the children can also care for the aged parents later on. The only issue is whether one's wife or mother is willing to stay with each other under 1 roof or not....I know both of mine are not willing, even though my wife is on very good terms with my mum

If I have my way, I would also stay in a landed/ cluster with my parents.....

Its is like buying a bus vs a car. If you can ferry the entire family of 15 to 20 people in the bus, it will be cheaper than owning car.

[Jaykj]

Its is like buying a bus vs a car. If you can ferry the entire family of 15 to 20 people in the bus, it will be cheaper than owning car.

If you look from the perspective of the country, you are absolutely right...that's why we have public bus....

but wrong analogy lah and I know what you are driving at

Tell me which family of 15 need to travel everywhere at the same time everyday? Even those who runs a family own business also dun have to all travel to 1 location at the same time.....

BUT, all 15 members of the same family do sleep at the same time.....maybe 50-75% of the family eat at the same time, so its definitely (perspective of financial wise) worth to stay under 1 roof, especially in view of the disparity between landed and condo.

[proud owner]

If you look from the perspective of the country, you are absolutely right...that's why we have public bus....

but wrong analogy lah and I know what you are driving at

Tell me which family of 15 need to travel everywhere at the same time everyday? Even those who runs a family own business also dun have to all travel to 1 location at the same time.....

BUT, all 15 members of the same family do sleep at the same time.....maybe 50-75% of the family eat at the same time, so its definitely (perspective of financial wise) worth to stay under 1 roof, especially in view of the disparity between landed and condo.

going to toilet in the morning can be a real pain in the ass

[wind30]

going to toilet in the morning can be a real pain in the ass

there is usually quite a lot of toilets in landed. can be 5 or more... if the place is big.

[proud owner]

there is usually quite a lot of toilets in landed. can be 5 or more... if the place is big.

true

my friends house has 5 bedrooms ... + 1 maids room

all ensuites



however .. if there are 15 people ... staying in 6 room house .. even with 6 toilets ...can still be quite challenging

better dont anyhow eat seafood ... in case whole family kana diarrhea at the same time

[roly8]

the tax is quite a killer..

$24k per year

not say expensive la..

[Kelonguni]

true

my friends house has 5 bedrooms ... + 1 maids room

all ensuites



however .. if there are 15 people ... staying in 6 room house .. even with 6 toilets ...can still be quite challenging

better dont anyhow eat seafood ... in case whole family kana diarrhea at the same time

Really so many people?

[Ringo33]

If you look from the perspective of the country, you are absolutely right...that's why we have public bus....

but wrong analogy lah and I know what you are driving at

Tell me which family of 15 need to travel everywhere at the same time everyday? Even those who runs a family own business also dun have to all travel to 1 location at the same time.....

BUT, all 15 members of the same family do sleep at the same time.....maybe 50-75% of the family eat at the same time, so its definitely (perspective of financial wise) worth to stay under 1 roof, especially in view of the disparity between landed and condo.

I am not interested to talk about Singapore politics here, but just using a bus vs car analogy to compare it to landed vs condo.

Bus is big, spacious, expensive to buy and maintain, but it lack the whistle and bells of modern family sedan unless you build your own motor home.

Landed is big, spacious, expensive to buy and maintain, but it lack all the facilities of modern condo unless you build your own GCB.

As Singapore progress, westernized, liberalized, family size will only get smaller, so lets no kid ourselves that we are going to see many big family living happily under one roof.

Actually if you wish to promote family living, better to buy several hdb flats in the same block. That way you can still can enjoy regular communion and still have your own family privacy.

[proper-t]

At it again.....by now, almost all of the regular forumers here know your true intentions. Don't you realise that it only gets worse the more you post? You should take heed of your own post in the 2nd quote below and put on a swimming costume.

I am not interested to talk about Singapore politics here, but just using a bus vs car analogy to compare it to landed vs condo.

Bus is big, spacious, expensive to buy and maintain, but it lack the whistle and bells of modern family sedan unless you build your own motor home.

Landed is big, spacious, expensive to buy and maintain, but it lack all the facilities of modern condo unless you build your own GCB.

As Singapore progress, westernized, liberalized, family size will only get smaller, so lets no kid ourselves that we are going to see many big family living happily under one roof.

Actually if you wish to promote family living, better to buy several hdb flats in the same block. That way you can still can enjoy regular communion and still have your own family privacy.

Trying another pot shot in another thread which btw, nobody bothered to respond. Looks like the tide went out and guess who got caught ?

Lets not assume that all gamblers are rich. Its only when the tides are down then we will know who is swimming naked.

Having said that I do agree that the impact is not material, but it will definitely make landed lose more of its shine.

[Ringo33]

Really so many people?

I cannot imagine having 2 or 3 families to live together under the same roof.
Might be better off buying 2 or 3 different condo in the same project if the intention is to live near to each other.

[Jaykj]

I am not interested to talk about Singapore politics here, but just using a bus vs car analogy to compare it to landed vs condo.

Bus is big, spacious, expensive to buy and maintain, but it lack the whistle and bells of modern family sedan unless you build your own motor home.

Landed is big, spacious, expensive to buy and maintain, but it lack all the facilities of modern condo unless you build your own GCB.

As Singapore progress, westernized, liberalized, family size will only get smaller, so lets no kid ourselves that we are going to see many big family living happily under one roof.

Actually if you wish to promote family living, better to buy several hdb flats in the same block. That way you can still can enjoy regular communion and still have your own family privacy.

Er....who is talking about politics here

And it was you who choose the bus vs car analogy.....ok, since you want to use this analogy, I'll play along.

The big bus analogy that you used probably refers to a detached house. But there are smaller `buses' like those 20 seater minibuses (akin to Semi-D or Inter-terrace) or we can also go for the 10-seater minibuses like the Mercedes Viano which DO come with all the bells and whistles of a family sedan and SPACE (cluster housing).

In a nut-shell, I still think its not so crazy an idea to buy a landed like an Inter-terrace or cluster for a 3-generation family and all stay under 1 roof as compared to a 3-bedder + 2 bedder as the psf of the landed is significantly lower than a condo. And as mentioned before, I have not even considered the other benefits of the family taking care of each other and family bonding.

[Ringo33]

Er....who is talking about politics here

And it was you who choose the bus vs car analogy.....ok, since you want to use this analogy, I'll play along.

The big bus analogy that you used probably refers to a detached house. But there are smaller `buses' like those 20 seater minibuses (akin to Semi-D or Inter-terrace) or we can also go for the 10-seater minibuses like the Mercedes Viano which DO come with all the bells and whistles of a family sedan and SPACE (cluster housing).

In a nut-shell, I still think its not so crazy an idea to buy a landed like an Inter-terrace or cluster for a 3-generation family and all stay under 1 roof as compared to a 3-bedder + 2 bedder as the psf of the landed is significantly lower than a condo. And as mentioned before, I have not even considered the other benefits of the family taking care of each other and family bonding.

I dont really consider inter terrace or cluster housing as landed property because there is really no land other than a car park at the front and a yard for doing laundry at the back.

Cluster housing are like having 3 to 4 MM apartment stack together and they are definitely not the kind of housing that promote family bonding because they are not elderly friendly (too many steps to climb) and when kids comes home they will usually end up in their respective room and only appear during meal time.

[lajia]

Are u staying in one? Or this is actually your own eg? Don't assume...every type of housing has its pros and cons and you have to see maybe it doesn't suit u...u try buying 5 MM and see how much it cost u compare to a 5-6rm cluster housing. And then u also compared the total size...
Cluster housing is a form of landed in terms of strata title per se and the definition is not set by u or me. If you like u can also call it whatever in your own term. So staying in 5 MM can promote relationship??

I dont really consider inter terrace or cluster housing as landed property because there is really no land other than a car park at the front and a yard for doing laundry at the back.

Cluster housing are like having 3 to 4 MM apartment stack together and they are definitely not the kind of housing that promote family bonding because they are not elderly friendly (too many steps to climb) and when kids comes home they will usually end up in their respective room and only appear during meal time.

[Ringo33]

Are u staying in one? Or this is actually your own eg? Don't assume...every type of housing has its pros and cons and you have to see maybe it doesn't suit u...u try buying 5 MM and see how much it cost u compare to a 5-6rm cluster housing. And then u also compared the total size...
Cluster housing is a form of landed in terms of strata title per se and the definition is not set by u or me. If you like u can also call it whatever in your own term. So staying in 5 MM can promote relationship??

cluster housing is perhaps the lousiest form of landed property to own in Singapore because

1) There is no land, you cant even grow a mango tree in yard
2) High maintenance fee for mostly lousy facilities
3) too many steps in the house, not elderly of child friendly
4) Small living and dining area.
5) No privacy (too close to neighbor)

Dont take my MM too literally, its meant to say each floor is about 500sqft.

[proper-t]

I am not interested to talk about Singapore politics here, but just using a bus vs car analogy to compare it to landed vs condo.

Bus is big, spacious, expensive to buy and maintain, but it lack the whistle and bells of modern family sedan unless you build your own motor home.

Landed is big, spacious, expensive to buy and maintain, but it lack all the facilities of modern condo unless you build your own GCB.

As Singapore progress, westernized, liberalized, family size will only get smaller, so lets no kid ourselves that we are going to see many big family living happily under one roof.

Actually if you wish to promote family living, better to buy several hdb flats in the same block. That way you can still can enjoy regular communion and still have your own family privacy.

What a silly analogy. Its like comparing residential with industrial property.