S'pore housing heading for a downturn, says developer

[3C]

Wolf is coming!

[Arcachon]

Since sales drop, implies that developers might have hard time selling off their units and yet govt still keep releasing the lands, so will the developers still willing to bid high high for the lands? If this is so, isn't the govt revenue will drop too, will this affect our economy?

http://www.sgrealist.com/developers-...-robust-sales/

Developers' landbanks depleted by robust sales

[DKSG]

Since October 2011, people already say property market will crash big time already.

But then what happened ? Some people even very precisely say will down 50% by 2015!

People have to understand why there is a crash, develop the story and test out the parameters, like that shout here no use one.

My office got tens and tens of people waiting ... not for the crash, but for market to drop 10%. They tell me once I see it drop 10%, quickly call them, they will get into FH CCR.

Then some 6 months ago, many start to drop the 10%, and say anything more than 5% lower than valuation, they grab.

I also hope market can go down a bit to pressure government to remove the CMs. Esp those related to ABSD and LTV, once they remove that, many in the office will be liberated to BUY BUY BUY !

They say, just like 2009 Lehman times, if property market drop suddenly, just go and grab something because they regret not grabbing it last time.

Are people around you all all thinking like that ?

Coupled with those who own units now refused to sell. Resale supply dropped.

Office Boy will do more resale viewings this weekend and report back to those who wants to listen.

DKSG
PS : Property Price drop, I think ppl here Huat more than price increase!

[CCR]

you must understand who made this statement... castlegroup is not a developer in SG right? so ask you to sell SG properties and buy overseas properties

[sh]

Then it will depend on the loan agreement if bank has the right to lelong the property if borrower can't top up margin or pay installment even if first year.

Government won't complain since they can earn 16%.

Now LTV at 50%, for force sale, prices need to drop 50%. If no force sales, prices how to drop 50% so go figure for yourself....

[DKSG]

you must understand who made this statement... castlegroup is not a developer in SG right? so ask you to sell SG properties and buy overseas properties

CCR is indeed a sharp forumer worth learning from.

I didnt even notice who made the statement.

Thats why I always think, who say what also no use, you need to go to the showflats to see it for yourself.

DKSG

[kane]

http://www.sgrealist.com/developers-...-robust-sales/

Developers' landbanks depleted by robust sales

there was an article on the weekend of Straits Times on this a few months back.

[kane]

For those who are wondering who is Castlewood Group, here they are:

http://www.castlewoodgroup.com/#!developments

and their developments are only 2 in Phuket.

have they become experts in Singapore property scene?

[economist]

Daiwa analyst David Lum said in 2011 that price will decline 20% within two or three years. He said again this time in 2013.

A true economist will never make predictions, he explains the economy and the market along the way.

[august]

you must understand who made this statement... castlegroup is not a developer in SG right? so ask you to sell SG properties and buy overseas properties

looks dodgy to me ~

[Akira Fudou]

What goes up must come down. In fact, this bull cycle has overrun already. Probably due to low interest environment.

Really? ok meaning i have the chance of buying a $40k 4 room HDB. yeah!

[radha08]

For those who are wondering who is Castlewood Group, here they are:

http://www.castlewoodgroup.com/#!developments

and their developments are only 2 in Phuket.

have they become experts in Singapore property scene?

better change name to dungeongroup

[radha08]

Really? ok meaning i have the chance of buying a $40k 4 room HDB. yeah!

wohoo then i can get my bayshore 2 bedder at $100k YES

[kane]

Daiwa analyst David Lum said in 2011 that price will decline 20% within two or three years. He said again this time in 2013.

A true economist will never make predictions, he explains the economy and the market along the way.

He should look at JPY and its impact on asset prices. And such monetary easing has happened many times before this.

[lionhill]

CCR is indeed a sharp forumer worth learning from.

I didnt even notice who made the statement.

Thats why I always think, who say what also no use, you need to go to the showflats to see it for yourself.

DKSG

Brother DKSG, if you are a fund manager, you must be a reliable one whom I can trust. Why, I heard that some diligent fund managers will stand at the gate of a potential company, counting the lorries in and out so that they can gauge the performance of the company. Now, You are monitoring the property market for us.

[TOKARA]

CCR is indeed a sharp forumer worth learning from.

I didnt even notice who made the statement.

Thats why I always think, who say what also no use, you need to go to the showflats to see it for yourself.

DKSG

i have been to showflats and indeed, big crowd

But am unsure how many are really cash rich? Or merely taking chance to upgrade from HDB or take adv of the low interest rate? Knowing SG well, peer pressure these days have forced many mid-agers to look into EC / Condo...

My sister in law for example, combine income with her husband less than 10k, took a 700k loan for 40 years…just to get a Condo!

I am also hopping for a ten % dip!

[thomastansb]

Anyway, these kind of report see liao just forget.

2009 - News say upturn will not last long. Sell if possible
2010 - News say prices have peaked. CCR will drop 20%
2011 - News say prices have overrun
2012 - News say prices will drop 15% for OCR
2013 - News say prices heading for downturn

Mr. B best. Prices will drop 50%. My experience tells me upturn and downturn will hit you without warning and without you realising it.

[Matador]

This is what that guy Chris Comer of Castlewood Group said in a Sunday Times interview in March 2013:


Q: What property do you own?

People form opinions based on material possessions so I will respectfully decline to answer this. Let's just say I do OK. I own properties elsewhere, including Britain. They are mostly hotel rooms.

I am waiting for bargains here in Singapore.



So now we know why he wants to talk down Singapore's property market!!

[mcmlxxvi]

Out of nowhere come out say something. Agenda-fool and piti-fool.

[indomie]

i have been to showflats and indeed, big crowd

But am unsure how many are really cash rich? Or merely taking chance to upgrade from HDB or take adv of the low interest rate? Knowing SG well, peer pressure these days have forced many mid-agers to look into EC / Condo...

My sister in law for example, combine income with her husband less than 10k, took a 700k loan for 40 years…just to get a Condo!

I am also hopping for a ten % dip!

The term “Great Rotation,” which came to prominence in late 2012, refers to the widespread prediction that record-low bond yields will prompt investors to rotate out of bonds and into stocks during 2013 and beyond.

The higher the value of the stocks, the more people believe that the great rotation will happen. As stocks rise so will properties. These stocks gain will find its way into properties somehow. The stock bull run is only begun and it is not based on fundamentals. Don't look at fundamentals to assess property prices now because fundamentals are being shaped by the new low interest environment.

A better way to assess property prices is by expecting a wealth gap to increase further. Let's say u are a average joe. If u keep cash, where will u be when the wealth gap eventually widen. If u buy property on the other hand, on which side of the wealth gap will u be?

Middle class will get crushed. Investor class will prosper. In the low interest environment, the profit margins are low. Salary alone will not catch up with inflation.

[star]

The term “Great Rotation,” which came to prominence in late 2012, refers to the widespread prediction that record-low bond yields will prompt investors to rotate out of bonds and into stocks during 2013 and beyond.

The higher the value of the stocks, the more people believe that the great rotation will happen. As stocks rise so will properties. These stocks gain will find its way into properties somehow. The stock bull run is only begun and it is not based on fundamentals. Don't look at fundamentals to assess property prices now because fundamentals are being shaped by the new low interest environment.

A better way to assess property prices is by expecting a wealth gap to increase further. Let's say u are a average joe. If u keep cash, where will u be when the wealth gap eventually widen. If u buy property on the other hand, on which side of the wealth gap will u be?

Middle class will get crushed. Investor class will prosper. In the low interest environment, the profit margins are low. Salary alone will not catch up with inflation.

Good post.

[TOKARA]

The term “Great Rotation,” which came to prominence in late 2012, refers to the widespread prediction that record-low bond yields will prompt investors to rotate out of bonds and into stocks during 2013 and beyond.

The higher the value of the stocks, the more people believe that the great rotation will happen. As stocks rise so will properties. These stocks gain will find its way into properties somehow. The stock bull run is only begun and it is not based on fundamentals. Don't look at fundamentals to assess property prices now because fundamentals are being shaped by the new low interest environment.

A better way to assess property prices is by expecting a wealth gap to increase further. Let's say u are a average joe. If u keep cash, where will u be when the wealth gap eventually widen. If u buy property on the other hand, on which side of the wealth gap will u be?

Middle class will get crushed. Investor class will prosper. In the low interest environment, the profit margins are low. Salary alone will not catch up with inflation.

very chim brother but well written!

so to continue to invest, i guessed?

[indomie]

very chim brother but well written!

so to continue to invest, i guessed?

Sg has pretty much close its door to skill migrants. It only welcome wealth migrants now. If we are talking about 6.9 million population, who are these new migrants are?. Of course they are the rich. The gov cannot let the property price to crash no matter what. They have the tool to make sure it never crash which is GLS. If property price ever crash, the wealth gap between the indigenous singaporeans and wealthy new migrants will be too extreme. So in a way appreciating property prices is a way for gov to prepare for eventual arrival of the new wave wealthy migrants.

[radha08]

Sg has pretty much close its door to skill migrants. It only welcome wealth migrants now. If we are talking about 6.9 million population, who are these new migrants are?. Of course they are the rich. The gov cannot let the property price to crash no matter what. They have the tool to make sure it never crash which is GLS. If property price ever crash, the wealth gap between the indigenous singaporeans and wealthy new migrants will be too extreme. So in a way appreciating property prices is a way for gov to prepare for eventual arrival of the new wave wealthy migrants.

sianzzz now no chance to buy my bayshore 2 bedder for $100k

[eng81157]

i'm gonna repeat my psych analysis again.

1. price drop 10% - would I buy?

Yes? There are probably others thinking likewise too - prop up the price a little, while those kia-si are still sitting on the fence

2. price drop another 10% - would I buy?

Yes? There are probably many many others thinking likewise too - prop up the price, while those kia-si will just sit on the fence and miss the boat

hence, no crash! the day when there are no more buyers, the crash will come. but looking at the population white paper, what are those chances?

[lajia]

Invest with eye wide open...

Mai Tam Pi, stay focus....

very chim brother but well written!

so to continue to invest, i guessed?

[Arcachon]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a6a9fbf6-b...#axzz2TRjycbmc

[Rlin]

Not only skill migrants are restricted.
Foreigners holding various Passes and Employment Passes too are restricted. Hence rental demand will decline, it will not be like before.

Do not be caught with no rental, with empty apartments. Waiting for the few tenants that come by who will soon have a lot choices.

It is a period of stagflation. Little growth, high inflation. Unemployment creeping up. I see banks are retrenching now.

It is a hit & run investment strategy. Investors now looking for yields or get into something liquid which they can invest & get out quickly.

Now they are playing the stock market. Don't count on it to spread to property here which has bad yield and not easy to unload.

Sg has pretty much close its door to skill migrants. It only welcome wealth migrants now. If we are talking about 6.9 million population, who are these new migrants are?. Of course they are the rich. The gov cannot let the property price to crash no matter what. They have the tool to make sure it never crash which is GLS. If property price ever crash, the wealth gap between the indigenous singaporeans and wealthy new migrants will be too extreme. So in a way appreciating property prices is a way for gov to prepare for eventual arrival of the new wave wealthy migrants.

[Arcachon]

Not only skill migrants are restricted.
Foreigners holding various Passes and Employment Passes too are restricted. Hence rental demand will decline, it will not be like before.

Do not be caught with no rental, with empty apartments. Waiting for the few tenants that come by who will soon have a lot choices.

It is a period of stagflation. Little growth, high inflation. Unemployment creeping up. I see banks are retrenching now.

It is a hit & run investment strategy. Investors now looking for yields or get into something liquid which they can invest & get out quickly.

Now they are playing the stock market. Don't count on it to spread to property here which has bad yield and not easy to unload.

Fully agree, the gov is committing suicide policy to get themselves out of government in the next election.

[proud owner]

Not only skill migrants are restricted.
Foreigners holding various Passes and Employment Passes too are restricted. Hence rental demand will decline, it will not be like before.

Do not be caught with no rental, with empty apartments. Waiting for the few tenants that come by who will soon have a lot choices.

It is a period of stagflation. Little growth, high inflation. Unemployment creeping up. I see banks are retrenching now.

It is a hit & run investment strategy. Investors now looking for yields or get into something liquid which they can invest & get out quickly.

Now they are playing the stock market. Don't count on it to spread to property here which has bad yield and not easy to unload.

high inflation is the biggest killer for the average singaporeans...
salary doesn't move (up) in line with inflation...

now I can imagine how the Johorians felt when sporeans went to BJ to spend and jacked up inflation there ...


bank retrenchment started since mid 2012 ....