View Poll Results: Will the general property price moves ...

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  • Upwards, more than 20% from current.

    9 9.89%
  • Upwards, less than 20% from current.

    33 36.26%
  • Sideways, in a consolidating pattern.

    25 27.47%
  • Downwards, less than 20% from current.

    20 21.98%
  • Downwards, more than 20% from current.

    4 4.40%
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Thread: General Property Prices of Singapore in 3 Years Time

  1. #61
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    Thank you everyone for the invaluable participation. Regardless of your choice, I wish you a very HUAT 2014!

    Final count,

    Date: 2 January 2014
    Polling Population of 91

    Bulls - 46.15%
    Neutral - 27.47%
    Bears - 26.38%

    Majority - Bulls (46.15%)
    Minority - Bears (26.38%)

    URA 2013 Q4 Flash PPI - 214.5

    Bulls target (20% upside) - 257.4
    Neutral target (0%) - 214.5
    Bears target (20% downside) - 171.6

    http://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room...n/pr14-01.aspx

  2. #62
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    MY CYCLE REGIME CHECKLIST

    Vacancy rates -> low but increasing -> peaking to falling phase
    Rents strength -> small increase, every increase is pressure on tenants -> peaking phase
    Yield ratio -> reduces, price up, rent up at slower pace -> peaking phase
    Ease to obtain property finance -> it's getting harder -> falling phase
    Length of time to sell property -> it's getting longer -> falling phase
    New launches -> many, BIG ADVERTS in papers, numerous SMSes -> peaking phase
    New construction in pipeline -> many -> peaking phase
    Property valuation vs transaction / transact at or under asking price -> near valuation, under asking price -> peaking/falling phase

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    MY CYCLE REGIME CHECKLIST

    Vacancy rates -> low but increasing -> peaking to falling phase
    Rents strength -> small increase, every increase is pressure on tenants -> peaking phase
    Yield ratio -> reduces, price up, rent up at slower pace -> peaking phase
    Ease to obtain property finance -> it's getting harder -> falling phase
    Length of time to sell property -> it's getting longer -> falling phase
    New launches -> many, BIG ADVERTS in papers, numerous SMSes -> peaking phase
    New construction in pipeline -> many -> peaking phase
    Property valuation vs transaction / transact at or under asking price -> near valuation, under asking price -> peaking/falling phase
    Someone asked, so ...

    Bullish Phase,

    Vacancy rates -> decreasing
    Rents strength -> consistent and sustainable increase
    Yield ratio -> rises
    Ease to obtain property finance -> easy
    Length of time to sell property -> chop chop curry pok
    New launches and construction in pipeline -> not many, existing stock absorbed, limited new supply
    Property valuation vs transaction / transact at or under asking price -> near or above valuation, above asking price

    My humble 2 cents worth ... cheers.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    MY CYCLE REGIME CHECKLIST

    Vacancy rates -> low but increasing -> peaking to falling phase
    Rents strength -> small increase, every increase is pressure on tenants -> peaking phase
    Yield ratio -> reduces, price up, rent up at slower pace -> peaking phase
    Ease to obtain property finance -> it's getting harder -> falling phase
    Length of time to sell property -> it's getting longer -> falling phase
    New launches -> many, BIG ADVERTS in papers, numerous SMSes -> peaking phase
    New construction in pipeline -> many -> peaking phase
    Property valuation vs transaction / transact at or under asking price -> near valuation, under asking price -> peaking/falling phase
    Still true when government is controlling the game?

    Prices usually fall sharply due to blackswan and there is hardly any clue.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy View Post
    Still true when government is controlling the game?

    Prices usually fall sharply due to blackswan and there is hardly any clue.
    You've raised a good point, Rosy.

    I am a firm believer of cycles and blackswan events. I don't believe the government can control the game. Their resources can manipulate the game only to a certain extent.

    Sharp drop is usually the final phase of the fall to kill off the remnant weak hands. Gradual fall will happen first to catch the unsuspecting off guard thus forming a bull trap. ie. 0.5% drop each month for 24 months, and another 10-15% drop in 6 months to give the people the feeling of "end of the world".

    When buying a home, timing is not so important as needs will be the priority. When buying an investment vehicle, timing is very critical. I think its bullcrap when someone claims otherwise.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    You've raised a good point, Rosy.

    I am a firm believer of cycles and blackswan events. I don't believe the government can control the game. Their resources can manipulate the game only to a certain extent.

    Sharp drop is usually the final phase of the fall to kill off the remnant weak hands. Gradual fall will happen first to catch the unsuspecting off guard thus forming a bull trap. ie. 0.5% drop each month for 24 months, and another 10-15% drop in 6 months to give the people the feeling of "end of the world".

    When buying a home, timing is not so important as needs will be the priority. When buying an investment vehicle, timing is very critical. I think its bullcrap when someone claims otherwise.
    Although government cannot save much due to global blackswan event, they can assist in the recovery phase.

    Remove absd and tdsr today and see what will happen to the property prices tomorrow?

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy View Post
    Although government cannot save much due to global blackswan event, they can assist in the recovery phase.

    Remove absd and tdsr today and see what will happen to the property prices tomorrow?
    Why you ask so many questions. There is only 1 way. That is up and up. Please stop asking questions and buy your property now before you regret. You seem more like ask many questions no action kind. Ask too many questions until confuse yourself and wont act kind. Read your question also sian. What if? what if?, there are 1million what if I can throw at you, I toss them at you see how you answer. By the time you answer half, the price already go up many times. Don't believe too much what all these experts and anal'ysts say. They are as blind as you.
    Last edited by Poon; 05-01-14 at 12:34.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy View Post
    Although government cannot save much due to global blackswan event, they can assist in the recovery phase.

    Remove absd and tdsr today and see what will happen to the property prices tomorrow?
    There is still strong underlying demand - depending on specific projects attributes. Look at the strong turn out during preview and strong sales.

    Buyers are more discerning - anything with strong percieved value will sell well.

    I believe prices will be flat / with strong upward basis in next 12 months.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by dleedoner View Post
    There is still strong underlying demand - depending on specific projects attributes. Look at the strong turn out during preview and strong sales.

    Buyers are more discerning - anything with strong percieved value will sell well.

    I believe prices will be flat / with strong upward basis in next 12 months.
    Correct! You go think what those ABSD actually does!? It magically remove the increase in index and makes it look flat. The index already went up bcos people are already paying more not to the seller but to the government. Only looks good on paper say price under control when in fact the price already gone up by 7%! But it went to the government pockets instead! The price will move up and up I say! No downside one. Our smart government know of making use of this opportunity to get more revenue and say they need to cool the market. Win Win situation. I'd give it to them. They are good.
    Last edited by Poon; 05-01-14 at 12:43.

  10. #70
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    The govt actions can do little to assist in recovery phase, contrary to what people would like to think. We don't need to look far, just look at the after-math of 1997 financial crisis, all sort of heating measures are useless until global economy recovers strongly! What is needed for property market and prices are buyers/investors confidence to buy, not govt measures!

    Similarly, if people think that when property prices going to crash because of ABSD and TDSR effects + other factors, removing ABSD and TDSR will not help much, if at all...


    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy View Post
    Although government cannot save much due to global blackswan event, they can assist in the recovery phase.

    Remove absd and tdsr today and see what will happen to the property prices tomorrow?

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosy View Post
    Although government cannot save much due to global blackswan event, they can assist in the recovery phase.

    Remove absd and tdsr today and see what will happen to the property prices tomorrow?
    There are some confusion.

    I would like to clarify that i believe the current price softening is due to absd and tdsr. By removing them today, we should see uptrend again. So, in my view government is able to curb prices. It is not entirely a free market anymore.

    During recovery phase, government can also assist in job creation etc.

    2005/2006 property prices begin to recover largely due to IR.

  12. #72
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    Dun think any cooling measure created will be removed any sooner.. Only look dumb if remove n sudden need implement again..

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    The govt actions can do little to assist in recovery phase, contrary to what people would like to think. We don't need to look far, just look at the after-math of 1997 financial crisis, all sort of heating measures are useless until global economy recovers strongly! What is needed for property market and prices are buyers/investors confidence to buy, not govt measures!

    Similarly, if people think that when property prices going to crash because of ABSD and TDSR effects + other factors, removing ABSD and TDSR will not help much, if at all...
    VERY CHUN👏👏👏👏👏👏

  14. #74
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    None that I can choose to poll..

    CCR up up.. RCR up.. OCR down.. Especially JG down & down the most.. so "Owner in the West better beware" what you are buying into the west!!

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rysk View Post
    None that I can choose to poll..

    CCR up up.. RCR up.. OCR down.. Especially JG down & down the most.. so "Owner in the West better beware" what you are buying into the west!!
    crapland is selling Westgate ... hmm ...
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  16. #76
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    Reduction of ABSD is more likely.

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera View Post
    crapland is selling Westgate ... hmm ...
    Haha. Crapland ...

    Crapland term is often used by people who play the money market.

    STI 2700
    Crapland 2.49
    Kepland 2.75

    Are the above targets achievable?

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rysk View Post
    None that I can choose to poll..

    CCR up up.. RCR up.. OCR down.. Especially JG down & down the most.. so "Owner in the West better beware" what you are buying into the west!!
    You seem to be trying very hard fishing Ringo into this thread.

  19. #79
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    The forum is predominantly bullish, let's moderate the sentiments by introducing some bearish information, in order to neuter some of the bullish sentiments!

    http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2014/...nuary.html?m=1

    http://english.caixin.com/2013-12-30/100623528.html

  20. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    The forum is predominantly bullish, let's moderate the sentiments by introducing some bearish information, in order to neuter some of the bullish sentiments!

    http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2014/...nuary.html?m=1

    http://english.caixin.com/2013-12-30/100623528.html
    This Donovan ang cannot be trusted. Last time in channelnewsasia forum ask people to short dow since 2011. Those listened to him all up lorry.

  21. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by star View Post
    This Donovan ang cannot be trusted. Last time in channelnewsasia forum ask people to short dow since 2011. Those listened to him all up lorry.
    Don't know who is Donovan Ang from CNA.

    How about Eagle, 2468, Dust and Milamberz? I only know these people from CNA.

  22. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by star View Post
    This Donovan ang cannot be trusted. Last time in channelnewsasia forum ask people to short dow since 2011. Those listened to him all up lorry.
    Of cos cannot trust. Do ya think price will drop much when so many rich people are supporting the price. The world is supporting the price of a tiny island. Every slight drop will have people coming in to buy at cheap. You listen now and buy and you wont go up lorry this time. Better right it while you can dude! Cheap price will not wait for you.

  23. #83
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    Interim Report - Q3 2014 Flash PPI - 208.1.

    What's the sentiments now? Fear? Greed?

    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    Thank you everyone for the invaluable participation. Regardless of your choice, I wish you a very HUAT 2014!

    Final count,

    Date: 2 January 2014
    Polling Population of 91

    Bulls - 46.15%
    Neutral - 27.47%
    Bears - 26.38%

    Majority - Bulls (46.15%)
    Minority - Bears (26.38%)

    URA 2013 Q4 Flash PPI - 214.5

    Bulls target (20% upside) - 257.4
    Neutral target (0%) - 214.5
    Bears target (20% downside) - 171.6

    http://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room...n/pr14-01.aspx

  24. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    Thank you everyone for the invaluable participation. Regardless of your choice, I wish you a very HUAT 2014!

    Final count,

    Date: 2 January 2014
    Polling Population of 91

    Bulls - 46.15%
    Neutral - 27.47%
    Bears - 26.38%

    Majority - Bulls (46.15%)
    Minority - Bears (26.38%)

    URA 2013 Q4 Flash PPI - 214.5

    Bulls target (20% upside) - 257.4
    Neutral target (0%) - 214.5
    Bears target (20% downside) - 171.6

    http://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room...n/pr14-01.aspx
    URA 2014 Q4 Flash PPI - 205.8

    http://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room...n/pr15-01.aspx

    I wish everyone a huat 2015!!!

  25. #85

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    my guess will be property should bottomed by next yr then and on the way up the following year, so i would guess a "single digit" increase from now... Anyway property investment should be for the longer term perspective, 3 yrs is little short...

    ps: of course any new government policy might change the direction as well.

  26. #86
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    Maybe after a few years of income increase and the revamp of the property indices, the Govt will finally announce that incomes have run up to match the property levels?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  27. #87
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    Still waiting for OCR property prices to crash another 15% (to make it 20% total)...............

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Maybe after a few years of income increase and the revamp of the property indices, the Govt will finally announce that incomes have run up to match the property levels?

  28. #88
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    It has been almost 2 years since the poll ... majority of the people were bullished then ... interestingly, the majority had been bullished when they should not. Do note that this forum should be "skewed" to the "more savvy property investors" population ... perhaps this is why wealth tend to find its way to the minority ...

    2013,
    Bulls - 46.15%
    Neutral - 27.47%
    Bears - 26.38%

    Majority - Bulls (46.15%)
    Minority - Bears (26.38%)

    Extracted some bullish quotes for remembrance,

    “If inflation is going to it 4% next year, and in the absence of an external shock like a global financial crisis, difficult for property prices to fall imo ” Auroraborealis – November 2013

    “The outlook of property pice in Singapore depends in large part on external factors. Singapore economy is still strong going out into the next three years with the government announced plans on land use and economic focus. What happens outside of Singapore will be of important concern particularly the US and China economies. Baring any major external shocks, the outlook for Singapore property price looks good.” Wunderkind – November 2013

    “All time high, it will go much higher. Better buy now if not you will miss the chance to buy cheap.” Poon – November 2013

    “Govt can cut supply of housing anytime and any amount. Govt can increase population anytime and any amount.” – Star December 2013

    “ermm.... this survey is already skewed from the onset because it is hosted in this forum, polling folks who are more likely to be more savvy property investors or onlookers.... i would say the total population in this forum is considered minority, relative to the total property purchasers?” – limfc December 2013

    “There is still strong underlying demand - depending on specific projects attributes. Look at the strong turn out during preview and strong sales. Buyers are more discerning - anything with strong percieved value will sell well. I believe prices will be flat / with strong upward basis in next 12 months.” – dleedoner January 2014

  29. #89
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    Normalisation of PPI with a factor of 0.7,

    URA 2013 Q4 Flash PPI - 214.5x0.7=150.15

    Bulls target (20% upside) - 257.4x0.7=180.18
    Neutral target (0%) - 214.5x0.7=150.15
    Bears target (20% downside) - 171.6x0.7=120.12

    Current PPI = 142.3 Q3 2015

  30. #90
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    I only know I have another two years of 1.68% interest.

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