General Property Prices of Singapore in 3 Years Time

[PC08]

Considering the draft Master Plan 2013, recently implemented cooling measures and the Singapore's economy, what is your expectation of the general property price in 3 years time? - 23 November 2013

[Arcachon]

sideway

[Allthepies]

Random....

[PC08]

Oh my ... only 30.24% are bears. Guess I have to accept the fact that I am in the minority team again.

[newbie11]

I will go for down 10%.

[auroraborealis]

if inflation is going to it 4% next year, and in the absence of an external shock like a global financial crisis, difficult for property prices to fall imo

[PC08]

if inflation is going to it 4% next year, and in the absence of an external shock like a global financial crisis, difficult for property prices to fall imo

Lets see ...

[PC08]

I will go for down 10%.

Click the Downwards less than 20% option !! Hehe.

[Wunderkind]

The outlook of property pice in Singapore depends in large part on external factors. Singapore economy is still strong going out into the next three years with the government announced plans on land use and economic focus.
What happens outside of Singapore will be of important concern particularly the US and China economies.

Baring any major external shocks, the outlook for Singapore property price looks good.

[玉格格]

if inflation is going to it 4% next year, and in the absence of an external shock like a global financial crisis, difficult for property prices to fall imo

even in the absence of ext shocks, supply n demand hv to be in equilibrium.
having excess supply in the next 2-3 yrs is bad enuff, now the problem is aggravated by sluggish hdb resale.
tdsr + when ppl is unable to get rid of their hdb/at their desired $, demand for mass condo is gonna get a direct hit.
tis will directly affect pc new launches n resale.

[auroraborealis]

Excess supply? If one looks only at number of units completed without compiling population figures to arrive at this conclusion, I'm highly doubtful.

Even with population number... The number doesn't stay stagnant, and what about average family unit size; if assume 4-6 mayb excess ss, if assume 1-3 still excess ss? How many 28-35 no kids still staying with parents now?

Do we count OCR + RCR + CCR as total ss? How many buy CCR for own stay? Ppl who buy CCR stay in GCB or B... Or are HNWI; they can afford to leave the unit empty for years. It's a different ball game..

If we less of 5% of the total population, and compute ss based on RCR+OCR vs 90-95% commoners' population, will there still b excess...

even in the absence of ext shocks, supply n demand hv to be in equilibrium.
having excess supply in the next 2-3 yrs is bad enuff, now the problem is aggravated by sluggish hdb resale.
tdsr + when ppl is unable to get rid of their hdb/at their desired $, demand for mass condo is gonna get a direct hit.
tis will directly affect pc new launches n resale.

[PC08]

Excess supply? If one looks only at number of units completed without compiling population figures to arrive at this conclusion, I'm highly doubtful.

Even with population number... The number doesn't stay stagnant, and what about average family unit size; if assume 4-6 mayb excess ss, if assume 1-3 still excess ss? How many 28-35 no kids still staying with parents now?

Do we count OCR + RCR + CCR as total ss? How many buy CCR for own stay? Ppl who buy CCR stay in GCB or B... Or are HNWI; they can afford to leave the unit empty for years. It's a different ball game..

If we less of 5% of the total population, and compute ss based on RCR+OCR vs 90-95% commoners' population, will there still b excess...

No excess, but there will be less demand. I'll use figures to justify my point rather than doing it the qualitative way. So much more fun this way.

2013
Population ~ 5.37 Mil
Demand (Assume per family 3.5 pax) ~ 1,534,581
Supply (Pte + HDB Supply) ~ 1,250,861
Demand/Supply Ratio ~ 1.23

2020
Population ~ 6.00Mil
Demand (Assume per family 3.5 pax) ~ 1,714,286
Supply (Pte + HDB Supply) ~ 1,536,268
Demand/Supply Ratio ~ 1.12

Demand/Supply Ratio Change ~ -9.04%. In other words, demand should weaken over time if every other factors remain constant.

[PC08]

No excess, but there will be less demand. I'll use figures to justify my point rather than doing it the qualitative way. So much more fun this way.

2013
Population ~ 5.37 Mil
Demand (Assume per family 3.5 pax) ~ 1,534,581
Supply (Pte + HDB Supply) ~ 1,250,861
Demand/Supply Ratio ~ 1.23

2020
Population ~ 6.00Mil
Demand (Assume per family 3.5 pax) ~ 1,714,286
Supply (Pte + HDB Supply) ~ 1,536,268
Demand/Supply Ratio ~ 1.12

Demand/Supply Ratio Change ~ -9.04%. In other words, demand should weaken over time if every other factors remain constant.

OMG ...

I've got a very close friend who mentioned that Hu Liyang recently stated something like "Don't worry, your kid's home will be cheaper than yours ..."



2011
Population ~ 5.18Mil
Demand (Assume per family 3.5 pax) ~ 1,481,057
Supply (Pte + HDB Supply) ~ 1,182,870
Demand/Supply Ratio ~ 1.25

2030
Population ~ 7.00Mil
Demand (Assume per family 3.5 pax) ~ 2,000,000
Supply (Pte + HDB Supply) ~ 1,909,422
Demand/Supply Ratio ~ 1.05

[Poon]

How is the property price be able to come down??? There is no way it can happen, pent up demand is so huge! Those who need to buy property better buy now before its too late! Property gonna rocket!

Who is this hu liyang? Crazy guy to say my kids home will be cheaper.

Dont argue anymore. Property price will fly like there is no tomorrow!

[Arcachon]

Sure got excess, everyone in Singapore now got a roof over their head right.

Who is sleep in the open now? Don't need to calculate confirm excess, quick sell your property now, property sure drop.

[Poon]

Sure got excess, everyone in Singapore now got a roof over their head right.

Who is sleep in the open now? Don't need to calculate confirm excess, quick sell your property now, property sure drop.

U so flip flop how to believe? One moment flat the other moment down. UCooling measures cant stop the price from moving up. Just watch the minority bears get destroyed and trampled

[PC08]

U so flip flop how to believe? One moment flat the other moment down. UCooling measures cant stop the price from moving up. Just watch the minority bears get destroyed and trampled

Relax leh. Arachon just gave a casual and harmless comment. This thread is for friendly comments, you don't need to feel so agitated. Minority bears tio destroyed and trampled also OK la if heaven wants that to happen.

Btw, poll ending early next year, and we will do a review 3 years after!

[Poon]

Relax leh. Arachon just gave a casual and harmless comment. This thread is for friendly comments, you don't need to feel so agitated. Minority bears tio destroyed and trampled also OK la if heaven wants that to happen.

Btw, poll ending early next year, and we will do a review 3 years after!

You sound decent. AlRight ill give arcachon some slack but i still dont like flip flops.

[august]

supply is definitely increasing, undeniable.
the kind of capital appreciation witnessed in the recent past is not coming back. All investors should be prepared and have adequate financial buffer if they intend to hold for the mid to long term.

[newbie11]

supply is definitely increasing, undeniable.
the kind of capital appreciation witnessed in the recent past is not coming back. All investors should be prepared and have adequate financial buffer if they intend to hold for the mid to long term.

for folks who bought the 2nd and subsequent properties, the LTV is so low. That in itself is the buffer.

[august]

for folks who bought the 2nd and subsequent properties, the LTV is so low. That in itself is the buffer.

That is useful. But cash reserve is needed in the event of property vacancy, job loss, or other events that may impact one's personal life.

[Arcachon]

[Arcachon]

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistic...opulation.html

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10221p....Statistics.pdf

https://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateIIW...rch.action#tab

[Arcachon]

http://www.teoalida.com/

http://www.teoalida.com/singapore/eclist/

Note that NO executive condominium was topped between 2009 and 2012

[Poon]

http://www.teoalida.com/

http://www.teoalida.com/singapore/eclist/

Note that NO executive condominium was topped between 2009 and 2012

All time high, it will go much higher. Better buy now if not you will miss the chance to buy cheap.

[Shanhz]

floodgates will open after 2016

[Poon]

floodgates will open after 2016

Cracks can be seen at the floodgates already. We are just waiting for the inevitable to occur.

[PC08]

Good. 26.87% bears.

Enclosed just for humour.

[proud owner]

OMG ...

I've got a very close friend who mentioned that Hu Liyang recently stated something like "Don't worry, your kid's home will be cheaper than yours ..."



2011
Population ~ 5.18Mil
Demand (Assume per family 3.5 pax) ~ 1,481,057
Supply (Pte + HDB Supply) ~ 1,182,870
Demand/Supply Ratio ~ 1.25

2030
Population ~ 7.00Mil
Demand (Assume per family 3.5 pax) ~ 2,000,000
Supply (Pte + HDB Supply) ~ 1,909,422
Demand/Supply Ratio ~ 1.05

OMG he said that ????



but who is Who Li Yang ??

[PC08]

OMG he said that ????

but who is Who Li Yang ??

http://youtu.be/coqHFWr344A

He talks about herd mentality here. :-p