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  1. #731


    Thanks for the sharing.

    The World is full of sound some are noise others are music, wish you enough the music when you share.

  2. #732


    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post

    To : 80% of retail investors (herd instinct), income earner earning between $3k to $12k/mth , young & old investors,
    mgrs , engineers / technicians / suprs, taxi driver , salesman/executive, housewife etc

    Subject : Live to tell my 25 yrs journey in investing.

    Struggle is always part of survival. You struggle to put a decent meal for your own family. Do you struggle to find meaning in your life? Are you overworked and constantly not enough money or just enough money & unable to save much ? How you wish you had better financial health to lessen the struggle.

    To avoid the struggle in later in life (above age 40+), you need to start your financial planning as early as possible. I am convinced that investing early & wisely at young age is very important. Mostly importantly, when you invest, you need to choose a journey of investing against the herd instinct group of majority people.

    I have made many mistakes & survived . I survived 1997/98 Asia financial in 1998. I survived the 2008/2009 US financial crisis which I need to thanks our former Dr Tony Tan who warned about the imminent crisis in Mar 2008 b4 the once in a century US financial crisis started in Sept 2008.

    We remember 10% of what we read, 20% of what we see and lastly 90% of what we experience. I trade from high risk FX (knock in/out), DCI, accumulator , ELN , FCN , pennys stocks , bond etc .So no input or advise from others (bankers, Remiser , friends, Analyst, Jim Roger , Marc Faber , Soro etc) is as vivid as long lasting as it own trading experience. Real experience is the teacher of all things.

    So I will “LIVE TO TELL” through my 25 yrs experience of trading investing which I did not win on TRADING stocks (due to my emotional weakness trading behavior during the inital young age) or did not lose much due to my ability to cut lost. But I made money from ppty , bonds & unit trust. I started investing in 1991/1992

    My very first stock, unit trust , IPO , US stock in 1991/92
    1) My 1st stock that I bought is Clob share M'sia Public Bank @ S$0.29 (S$15k) in 1992 & sold the same yr 1992.

    If you invested about RM15,000 in Public Bank’s shares in 1992 and reinvested the dividends, you would be sitting on RM1 million worth of Public Bank shares 2017.

    2) I remember I took MRT to citibank at shenton branch & bought unit trust, Prudential Spore managed fund @1.00 (S$20,000) in 1992.
    I took profit @1.2 mths later.

    If you invested $20,000 in 1992. It is worth $85k (Price is now $4.20 or est 5.8% yearly compounded return)
    Better than CPF SA return.

    3) 1st IPO Ascott @1.00. I remember I cut lost @ 0.96 mths later
    I think they have changed to a new name. Should be make $ if I hold till now.

    4) 1st US stock in 1991- Read Rite doing hard disk part (I cut lost a Mths later)
    I think they have de-listed.Cant find the stock name.

    5) In 1992, two of my colleague ask me t join them to buy the LAST aptment unit avail at Kembangun MRT. I dont know why I trusted them & decided to invest together with them.They did not have the CASH but only CPF-OA $. So the arrangement is I come out CASH $35k as downpayment. They will come out CPF $ which I do not know whether it will work out. I rushed to issue a cash order to the agent.But it was sold an hour ago. Maybe it is a blessing disguise as I found later that one of my colleague cannot be trusted.

    "Men" tell a thousand lies .They will lie to get out of it and hurt (huge financial loses) all of us through our own emotional stupidity, HERD INSTINCT, GREED & FEAR. The temptation to manipulate , rigging & cheating are becoming very bad. Many ignorant investors include high IQ doctor, dentist & most the main street are getting burnt badly.

    Fool me ONCE , shame on YOU.
    Fool me TWICE, shame on ME.
    Fool me 3rd TIME,How STUPID I am.
    Fool me the 4th TIME, I need to be CONDEMNED.
    Fool me the 5th , 6th TIME, Totally hopeless gamblers

    The final tragedy hopeless GAMBLER stage will bring financial disaster to his/her family.

    It is very clear that investors preferred a high return with a low risk. But the risk-return investment research shown it is not possible unless it is a SCAM or a plan FRAUD. Time and time again, the same old trick(very high return) is employed, and worked. Most people believe it is govt job to lookout for Scam companies. The Scammers like GOLD Guarantee , FX currency , Land banking , wine & farm investment etc are simply too smart. So it is not easy for our govt to eradicate check on it completely.

    I remember I went to GOLD guarantee office after they offered me $100 capland voucher. The salesman facial expression is exactly the same as the one I watched in the HK drama, the bad guy. He showed me the cash counter really transacting cash & gold. I have the ability to imagine. I imagine they are actors & actress doing the "ACTING". He shown me the picture of Boss is on the CNA news. Later, I think it is quite easy to use digital image to edit the picture. After the talk, I said I will reconsider 1st. I took the $100 capland voucher & spend on the same day at nite.

    The reason why S'poreans are still being conned are :
    1) GREED. They want ridiculously High Returns.
    2) Impatient. A investor worst quality is impatient. They want make fast money in the shortest time.

    Let keep investing as simple as ABC. Let have a investing strategy without speculating , manipulation , GREED investing etc.

    Growth stock - Invest in Global blue chip growth stocks
    Apple , Microsoft , Amazon P&G , Google , Samsung (KR) , Hong Hai (TW) , facebook , Alibaba (China) , Tencent (China) , Ping Ann insurance (China) , Banks etc etc. Go to the top performing unit trust facesheet. You will able to find out more.

    There are many sunset sector, industry, fashion etc. As long the CEO in-charge does not have a Sunset mindset & get ride of sunset product & move very fast to reinvent a new of product. This company stock will perform. SPH & singpost is too slow to react.

    If you invested $10k of Google in 2004 at its IPO of $85, then you'd have $185,384.53 (12 yrs later - 2016). Today Dec 17.
    It worth much more.

    A $5,000 investment in the Amazon online retailer in 1997 would be worth $2.4 million (2017)

    A $5,000 investment in the Microsoft stock in 1996 would be worth $50,000 in 2016.
    13% per yr return. Today Dec 17, it will be worth much more.

    Unit trust – Alternative investing
    Buying into a unit trust can keep investors from falling into this TRAP (investor worst quality is GREED & impatient ) due to their weak emotional behavior. "Men" tell a thousand lies .They will lie to get out of it and hurt (huge financial loses) all of us through our own emotional stupidity, HERD INSTINCT, GREED & FEAR.

    Some of the best performing unit trust
    1) Schroder Asian growth
    2) AIA regional equity
    3) Aberdeen pacfic equity
    4) Prudential SG manage fund (now closed. Fund too big )
    5)UOB united healthcare
    6) HSBC china fund.
    7) Global ETF fund
    etc etc etc.

    Buying into Global IPO stocks
    It required some knowledge & reading financial news.

    Buy into 10 (each 5k - 10 stocks $50k) such global IPO stocks between 2k to 10k each which has the potential of >30% pa return.
    Let say you have such 10 of these Global IPO stock with Big name like GIC , LiKashing etc investors & hold for 10 yrs to 20 yrs.
    99% you will be a winner (Let say only 5 of these stocks survived) 10 to 20 yrs later if you stayed invested.

    Initial invested capital of 5k (holding period 15 yrs - 30% annual return ) = $255k
    5k (holding period 15yrs - 20% annual return) = $77k
    5k (holding period 10 yrs - 15% annaul return ) = $ 40k.
    5k (holding period 15 yrs - 10% annual return) = $21k
    5k (holding period 10 yrs - 5% annaul return ) = $ 10k.

    If you invested $10k of Google in 2004 at its IPO of $85, then you'd have $185,384.53 (12 yrs later - 2016). Today Dec 17.
    It worth much more.

    A $5,000 investment in the Amazon online retailer in 1997 would be worth $2.4 million (2017)

    I bought China life insurance because of LiKashing $ HK$2.75 (high was HK$50)in 2003 a few days after IPO I bought China Petrolum because of warren buffet @HK$1.76 (high was HK$16) a few days after the IPO . Because I keep monitoring & evenutally took only >30% profit.If I hold till now (15 yrs later) . My return would be definitley > 10% pa including dividend payout.

    One of the example the recent (nov17) IPO Razer Inc @ HK$3.88 (top end IPO pricing). Low end IPO pricing was HK$3.3. Recent high 4.9. Now drop to HK$3.75. Razer, whose early investors include Intel, Hong Kong's richest man Li Ka Shing, as well as Lee Hsien Yang, has also raised US$153 million from five cornerstone investors including Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC (US$20 million).

    If you decide to buy one of the IPO stock & keep for 10 to 20 yrs.It may or may not perform. DO NOT MONITOR.

    Invest in Crisis time – One of the most difficult investing decision
    Patience is really key in crisis investing. Investing in crisis time is the most rewarding and it will shortened your journey to Financial Freedom. But it is one of the most difficult investing decision. Only the "very NEW investor , very experience investors who have gone through a few of these crisis , investors which has alot of CASH avail will only dare to invest.

    2010 - Middle east crisis
    2011 - Greece or Europe crisis
    2012 - US deficit crisis (now all ok )
    2015 - China crisis
    2016 - Russia & Oil & gas crisis

    In 2008, I did invest during the US financial crisis. Las Vegas at US$2+. Citigroup @US$1+. Too bad, I keep monitoring until I sold too early. I did buy again Citigroup at US$38 in 2012 (1 for 10 reverse stock split). Again I sold off too early. Now $75.

    My investment strategy of buying some investment grade bond (crisis drop less) to collect coupon & will switch to equity
    once crisis occur.In late 2015, the Russia & oil & gas crisis strike. I sold some of my investment grade bond & switch to OCBC (7.8)
    DBS (13.8) , UOL (6+) , capland (2.98) , SPH reit (0.92)etc, BHP. Again I miss it again the huge profit if I hold till now. I sold off to early.
    I have some consolation as the head of equity division who bought DBS @13+. also Sold off too early ($16+?)

    Our CPF money is primarily for retirement funding. Not for other purpose like paying for your mortgage loan unless if u have no choice. When your finance health is much better. You should switch back from CPF to cash..Do not use your CPF for speculative investment.

    My suggestion is to meet the full retirement sum (FRS) as young or early as possible by transfering your CPF OA (2.5%) to CPF SA (4% to 5%) if you have the capablilty or excess cash.If the person (age 35) has already met or exceeded the FRS ($166k minimum Sum), the annual interest earned in your CPF SA (4% to 5%) would take care of the increase in FRS ( range 2.5% to 3.5%). Once you have achieved your full retirement sum of $166k. You know that even somehow if you encountered bad luck of being SCAMMED. You know at least your still have enough CPF $ for basic retirement.

    Lastly, Lee Kuan Yew definition of an educated man.
    An educated man is a man never stop learning and wants to learn. I am not interested in whether a man has a PHD or not, an M.A for that matter a diploma.
    Invest in Crisis time – One of the most difficult investing decision
    Investing in crisis time is the most rewarding and it will shortened your journey to Financial Freedom. It is also the opportunities to recoup your past many years of losses.

    My friend & his sister (accountant) has been a active trading of stock for the past 20 yrs. Her sister told me 10 yrs ago that she had lost equivalent of one bungalow (a few millions). She likes many retail investors like to buy penny stocks, "hearsay" stock, buy during optimism (high) , buy stocks from her biz friends recommendation etc.

    My friend just like his elder sister also lost a million + due to his inability to cut loss. But it is during the Lehman crisis in 2008/09, he took the courage to buy Las Vegas sand (dropped from US$147 to US$2+ within a year) , citigroup & Bank of America. He sold most of it in 2016 & he recoup back all his past a million+ dollars of 20 yrs losses within 6 years. I told him to invest in bond in 2011 with leveraging & he did . More aggressive & buying more risky junk trade than me (he buys > $5m). He is doing well for the past 5 yrs in bond investing. But I do not know whether the bull run in the bond mkt will last.

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