STOCKS THREAD

[teddybear]

Noble shares has 10-to-1 consolidation, so now $1.34 is equivalent to S$0.134 previously.
So share has not moved since Aug 2016 (and don't think will go anywhere in the short term)..............................

More pain to come for Noble, as Noble closed 2.9 Singapore cents - or 17.9 per cent - lower at S$0.133 a share........................

Updated hot stock: Noble tumbles in active trade, prompting SGX query
By Angela [email protected]
AUG 2, 20164:15 PM

THE share price of Noble Group tumbled more than 15 per cent in active trade on Tuesday, prompting a query from the Singapore Exchange (SGX) on its trading activity.

Noble closed 2.9 Singapore cents - or 17.9 per cent - lower at S$0.133 a share. More than 335 million shares changed hands, making the commodities group the most actively traded stock on SGX.

..............................................................................................

The stock has been trodden on by all sorts of downgrades by ratings agencies and the "buy" recommendations have virtually disappeared.

[bargain hunter]

Noble shares has 10-to-1 consolidation, so now $1.34 is equivalent to S$0.134 previously.
So share has not moved since Aug 2016 (and don't think will go anywhere in the short term)..............................

bye bye noble. touched $1.00 post consolidation. on the way back to 0.134 post consolidation lol.

[teddybear]

Really bad news:
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stoc...profit-warning

I have same bad feeling for Olam as well, except that Olam has been supported by BIG money thrown at it, but how long can such money last with their weak fundamentals? (Just like CSM)?

I read Muddy Waters report on Olam and what they alleged does make sense though (at least to me).
Sometimes, it takes years before their weakness shows up (just like Noble), and many innocent people got sucked in believing that there are "big name" investors in the stock and hence is safe to invest in...............

bye bye noble. touched $1.00 post consolidation. on the way back to 0.134 post consolidation lol.

[teddybear]

Compare to this one:
Wilmar's Q1 net profit leaps 51% to US$361.6m

This seems to be be a very well-managed company compared to Noble and Olam...........

Really bad news:
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stoc...profit-warning

I have same bad feeling for Olam as well, except that Olam has been supported by BIG money thrown at it, but how long can such money last with their weak fundamentals? (Just like CSM)?

I read Muddy Waters report on Olam and what they alleged does make sense though (at least to me).
Sometimes, it takes years before their weakness shows up (just like Noble), and many innocent people got sucked in believing that there are "big name" investors in the stock and hence is safe to invest in...............

[teddybear]

Actually Noble closes at $0.875 yesterday, down about -32%!

SINGAPORE — Shares in Singapore-listed Noble Group lost a third of their value on Thursday (May 11) after the company unexpectedly warned of a quarterly loss, stoking concerns that the commodities firm was struggling to recover from a crisis-wracked two years despite drastic restructuring.
By -
May 11
SINGAPORE — Shares in Singapore-listed Noble Group lost a third of their value on Thursday (May 11) after the company unexpectedly warned of a quarterly loss, stoking concerns that the commodities firm was struggling to recover from a crisis-wracked two years despite drastic restructuring.

Noble Group stock plunged 32.43 per cent to close at S$0.875, its lowest level on record in more than 14 years. This was against a backdrop of a buoyant stock market, with the benchmark Straits Times Index ending at 21.14 points or 0.65 per cent up.

bye bye noble. touched $1.00 post consolidation. on the way back to 0.134 post consolidation lol.

[bargain hunter]

Actually Noble closes at $0.875 yesterday, down about -32%!

SINGAPORE — Shares in Singapore-listed Noble Group lost a third of their value on Thursday (May 11) after the company unexpectedly warned of a quarterly loss, stoking concerns that the commodities firm was struggling to recover from a crisis-wracked two years despite drastic restructuring.
By -
May 11
SINGAPORE — Shares in Singapore-listed Noble Group lost a third of their value on Thursday (May 11) after the company unexpectedly warned of a quarterly loss, stoking concerns that the commodities firm was struggling to recover from a crisis-wracked two years despite drastic restructuring.

Noble Group stock plunged 32.43 per cent to close at S$0.875, its lowest level on record in more than 14 years. This was against a backdrop of a buoyant stock market, with the benchmark Straits Times Index ending at 21.14 points or 0.65 per cent up.

that's yesterday, low was 61c this morning.

[teddybear]

Noble's crack finally appeared, today down another -20% to S$0.695 (after yesterday's down -32% to $0.875).

People who are still vested, I don't know what to say. I had already warned you long time ago! It is just a matter of time!

Just like my warning about OCR private property price CRASH!
Wait, it is just a matter of time!

The next one I will warn you is Olam!
Wait you see.... You think got people with a lot money to throw to support means Olam's business will do well? Without improving business, stock price will sooner or later reflect it (just like Noble).

Compare to this one:
Wilmar's Q1 net profit leaps 51% to US$361.6m

This seems to be be a very well-managed company compared to Noble and Olam...........

[Kelonguni]

Never touched Noble from the get go.

Just because you struck 4D today means you will strike Toto tomorrow? Great logic, I love it.

Noble's crack finally appeared, today down another -20% to S$0.695 (after yesterday's down -32% to $0.875).

People who are still vested, I don't know what to say. I had already warned you long time ago! It is just a matter of time!

Just like my warning about OCR private property price CRASH!
Wait, it is just a matter of time!

The next one I will warn you is Olam!
Wait you see.... You think got people with a lot money to throw to support means Olam's business will do well? Without improving business, stock price will sooner or later reflect it (just like Noble).

[EmileD]

Actually Noble closes at $0.875 yesterday, down about -32%!

-32% I'm glad I got out.

[bargain hunter]

down another 21% today on top of the -32% yesterday.

[teddybear]

Some people are just more right most of the time than others (not just once)!

I bought a few properties in the whole year of 2009. What about you? Did you buy when I tell you it is good time to buy in early 2009?

Never touched Noble from the get go.

Just because you struck 4D today means you will strike Toto tomorrow? Great logic, I love it.

[teddybear]

Noble share price closed at $0.665 or down -24% (and intraday low is $0.61, and that is like 20 years historical low?)!

Noble's crack finally appeared, today down another -20% to S$0.695 (after yesterday's down -32% to $0.875).

People who are still vested, I don't know what to say. I had already warned you long time ago! It is just a matter of time!

Just like my warning about OCR private property price CRASH!
Wait, it is just a matter of time!

The next one I will warn you is Olam!
Wait you see.... You think got people with a lot money to throw to support means Olam's business will do well? Without improving business, stock price will sooner or later reflect it (just like Noble).

[teddybear]

I mentioned Wilmar yesterday and today it popped +9.6% to $3.76 !

Compare to this one:
Wilmar's Q1 net profit leaps 51% to US$361.6m

This seems to be be a very well-managed company compared to Noble and Olam...........

[Hakuho]

Some people are just more right most of the time than others (not just once)!

I bought a few properties in the whole year of 2009. What about you? Did you buy when I tell you it is good time to buy in early 2009?

LOL

The aptly-named small fry who talk cock sing song everyday, self-promoting as THE property expert, and his buddy who celebrated the death recently.

Something is obviously wrong when THE expert defends the exuberance seen in OCR.

[teddybear]

Exuberance in OCR private property price is OBVIOUS now that it is at CENTURIES historical high!

Is it any wonder that I am predicting that that OCR private property price will CRASH badly in the near future?

LOL

The aptly-named small fry who talk cock sing song everyday, self-promoting as THE property expert, and his buddy who celebrated the death recently.

Something is obviously wrong when THE expert defends the exuberance seen in OCR.

[Kelonguni]

Exuberance in OCR private property price is OBVIOUS now that it is at CENTURIES historical high!

Is it any wonder that I am predicting that that OCR private property price will CRASH badly in the near future?

Nobody is trying to defend the OCR or whichever region. I only share my humble opinion that all properties are price-linked in this small red dot. Never really followed anyone in timing and location to buy into.

The idea is nobody can be a property expert because no one can predict what the Govt will do next, although we know that it doesn't serve their purpose to crash prices and kill off many industries. Read my nick again. What is our Govt well known for?

We can only speculate on the situation based on whatever data avails. So far, so good. Everything is as planned.

Anyone who claims he is a property expert, beware...

[teddybear]

lol!
Why are you replying to me?
You should reply to him or her:

LOL

The aptly-named small fry who talk cock sing song everyday, self-promoting as THE property expert, and his buddy who celebrated the death recently.

Something is obviously wrong when THE expert defends the exuberance seen in OCR.

He is fingering those who are so bent on defending the exuberance seen in OCR (which I also wonder why since I am vested in CCR but I won't defend property price now because they will all crash in next few years, just that OCR will be the worst hit because CCR already crashed while OCR didn't)............

Nobody is trying to defend the OCR or whichever region. I only share my humble opinion that all properties are price-linked in this small red dot. Never really followed anyone in timing and location to buy into.

The idea is nobody can be a property expert because no one can predict what the Govt will do next, although we know that it doesn't serve their purpose to crash prices and kill off many industries. Read my nick again. What is our Govt well known for?

We can only speculate on the situation based on whatever data avails. So far, so good. Everything is as planned.

Anyone who claims he is a property expert, beware...

[Kelonguni]

Same lah. No need to take it so seriously.

[Arcachon]

lol!
Why are you replying to me?
You should reply to him or her:



He is fingering those who are so bent on defending the exuberance seen in OCR (which I also wonder why since I am vested in CCR but I won't defend property price now because they will all crash in next few years, just that OCR will be the worst hit because CCR already crashed while OCR didn't)............

How to agree when the money already printed and more need to be printed to balance the exchange with other country.

Remember what LKY say before, if Singapore property cost the same as the ASIAN do you think it is possible.

[indomie]

How to agree when the money already printed and more need to be printed to balance the exchange with other country.

Remember what LKY say before, if Singapore property cost the same as the ASIAN do you think it is possible.

The truth is SG property has already risen....due to other asian countries property decline.

[indomie]

Other asian countries property price now is not a reflection of true market value. Buyer and seller price is mismatch. Therefore transaction volume is low. Volatility is higher outside Sg, similar to penny stock vs. Blue chip stock

[teddybear]

Repost here a stock question
( originally from here: http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...045#post526045 ) :

Actually, given that PUB is earning SO MUCH net CASH PROFITS that they can distribute as dividends, if it is a listed company I would also invested BIG SUM of money in it!

Unfortunately PUB is not listed.

Are there listed companies that earn as much or even more CASH PROFITS than PUB (and yet with low net to equity ratio)?
I would be very eager to invest in such companies!

No reply from minority, because no answer to why a loss-making company NEEDS to pay taxes???????????

Ha ha ha!

So you can imagine, without all those maneuvering and large asset depreciation, how profitable PUB will need to report in net profit (in addition to cash profit which is NOT readily obvious on their financial statements)!

Imagine, instead of quick depreciation of assets, PUB adopts the depreciation schedule similar to those drawn up by LTA for 99-years Leasehold land, where for the first 40 years depreciation only depreciate ~20%, then PUB will report huge net profits (in addition to net cash profit)!

Why nobody question such abnomality:
1) Company must adopt straight line or conservation quick depreciation of their assets.

while 2) LTA recommends valuation of 99-years leasehold land based on some weird schedule where an asset is supposed to last 99-years and LTA recommends valuation of only 20% drop in value over >40 years (i.e. >40% of their life span spent) while companies need to depreciate their assets by >40% over 40% of their life span?

[teddybear]

I am still looking for companies that is like PUB that is earning so much Net Operating Cash Profit (NCFBWCC) but LISTED (since PUB is not listed and we can't invest in it):

For YE Mar 31 NCFBWCC
2016 $303.8M
2015 $302.2M
2014 $292.5M
2013 $300.8M
2012 $284.3M
2011 $466.8M
2010 $503.7M

Not easy though, since with a NCFBWCC of ~$300M every year and this is relatively stable cash profit and may even goes up to $503.7M, such company could have valuation easily of about >$6 BILLIONS to $10 BILLIONS!

With the increase of water price by 30%, the revised valuation of PUB would be $12B to $20B (if PUB is a listed company)...............

**** Why PUB needs to increase water price by 30%?
No idea, considering that they have made so much profits over the years (before Government grants), not to mention the huge cash coffers after including government grants!


**** PUB has not increased water price for past 17 years, BUT are they making lots of money for past 17 years?
Now, PUB mentioned that they have not increased water price for past 17 years, so it seems reasonable and justifiable for them to increase water prices? Have not increased water prices for past 17 years mean automatically they are justified to do it?
If PUB has indeed been making huge profits, they are already sort of over-charging Singaporeans, considering that it is supposed to be a non-profit government stat board right?
Or they always think that all the government stat boards should always MAKE HUGE PROFITs from their people?


**** How much has PUB profited actually over the past 17 years?
So How much has PUB profited actually over the 17 years that they said they have not increased water price?
To answer the above questions, Let's dig out some FACTs - Look at the Net Operating Cashflow before Working Capital Changes (NCFBWCC) (Note that this is before including the Government Grants!)......

For YE Mar 31 NCFBWCC Gov Grant Total Cash available for CE Total Cash on Balance Sheet
2016 $303.8M $270M $573.8M $830M
2015 $302.2M $277M $579.2M $780M
2014 $292.5M $296M $588.5M $1089M
2013 $300.8M $216M $516.8M $889M
2012 $284.3M $199M
2011 $466.8M $185M
2010 $503.7M $185M
Above You can refer financial reports from here: https://www.pub.gov.sg/annualreports/

You may ask: Why look at "Net Operating Cashflow before Working Capital Changes" and not "Net Income"?
Well, when you ask this question, it obviously shows that you are ignorant about accounting!
Net Income includes deduction for "Capital Expenditure, Amortization etc", which are not real cash expenditure made during that year! They form what is called "Accrual Accounting"!
If you want to know what are the Cash Profits available for spending on additional capital expenditure etc, obviously you look at NCFBWCC, which are the cash they can pocket (without minusing the Capital Expenditure etc which has already been paid/spent YEARS ago using CASH the company previously owned/has in their account!)

So, you can see that PUB has been making HUGE CASH PROFITS (Net Operating Cashflow before Working Capital Changes (NCFBWCC)) over all these years up till 2016 before adding Gov Grants!!!!!!!!!!!!


**** PUB needs to spend $4 Billions over next 5 years?
Now, according to the news, read here:
http://www.straitstimes.com/politics...t-depreciation
It said that "PUB intends to invest $4 billion on additional water infrastructure in the next five years."

Ok, so Capital Expenditure (CE) is $4B needed over 5 years means they need $800M cash p.a. to cover the expenses.
First Question: why need so much over 5 years?
Don't forget, PUB only has $6.8B of "Property, plant and equipment" on Balance Sheet accumulated over past >50 years (or an average of $136M per year if you assume their expenditure on capital expenditure (which forms the "Property, plant and equipment" on balance sheet) is the same every year over the past 50 years)!
Suddenly they need to spend so much over 5 years, which costs about 58.9% of $6.8M "Property, plant and equipment" that they had accumulated over >50 years?
Like that is seems that they can spaced out the capital expenditure over say 10 years or even 20 years right?


**** PUB can easily raise funds through BONDs since they have so much CASH PROFIT to pay interest?
Even then, PUB could raise funds via issuing bonds and pay interests to finance the capital expenditure, since don't forget, they are earning ~$300M in CASH every year! Why they need to pocket so much CASH?
Even then, with Gov Grant, they have >$570M every year to spend on capital expenditure!

Now, assuming that water prices increases by 30% by 2018, what will their cash profits be? We should be able to make an educated estimate:

For YE Mar 31 Revenue NCFBWCC
2016 $1,201M $303.8M
Additional revenue of $360.3 will fall to cash profits.
So, now PUB will earn say:
2018 $1,561.3M $664.1M

Now, after 5 years, when the capital expenditure needed has been spent, PUB will still continue to earn about $664.1M. So what is PUB going to do with their HUGE PROFIT?
Are they going to return these money back to the Singaporeans?
What say you?
If not, is there a real need to rise water prices?
Well, NOT WHEN PUB is still MAKING SO MUCH MONEY (before Gov Grant) right?!

Or they can raise all these money through bonds, since for YE 2016 Mar 31, PUB only has total debt to equity ratio = (2796M) / (5145M) = 54%!

If you look at other big companies, e.g. Olam (majority controlled by Temasek):
Olam in FY2016 has total debt to equity ratio = (17,835M) / (5,634M) = 317%!

Now, if PUB raises their total debt level to 317% (like Olam), they would be able to borrow additional = $(3.17*7941M) - (2796M) = $22,377M, i.e. they can easily sells BONDS up to $22.38 BILLIONS!
Hei, if you add in the cash, that is MUCH MUCH MORE THAN the $4 BILLIONS capital expenditure money needed by PUB over next 5 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!


**** What is PUB going to do with HUGE CASH PROFIT of $664.1M per annum they are earning 5 years later?
And what is PUB going to do with HUGE CASH PROFIT of $664.1M per annum 5 years later when they have no need to spend so much CAPTIAL EXPENDITURE any more?

Why should raising awareness of preciousness of water and encouraging water conservation and efficiency become an excuse for PUB to earn even more PROFITS from Singaporeans (akin to "milking" Singaporeans)?

So honestly, are they going to cut water prices and return the HUGE CASH PROFITS to Singaporeans or they are going to keep them?


**** CONCLUSIONS?
The rest, I leave you all to figure out why the figure of expenditure is so incredible over such short period (like need $4B over 5 years) that far exceeds historical level (when their "Property, plant and equipment" is only $6.8B over past 50 years or like only average of $136M per year)!
Even then, the capital expenditure of $4B could be spreaded out over longer years (so don't need to rise water price)!

Conclusion: Looks like rising water price is an internal decision made to rise profits for PUB, regardless of the necessity of doing it?

[cbsh38584]

Noble's crack finally appeared, today down another -20% to S$0.695 (after yesterday's down -32% to $0.875).

People who are still vested, I don't know what to say. I had already warned you long time ago! It is just a matter of time!

Just like my warning about OCR private property price CRASH!
Wait, it is just a matter of time!

The next one I will warn you is Olam!
Wait you see.... You think got people with a lot money to throw to support means Olam's business will do well? Without improving business, stock price will sooner or later reflect it (just like Noble).

Many investors already loss 100% of their investments if they have subscribed to their Rights in July 2016 and kept all the shares unsold.
They used the money raised from rights to redeem the 6.625% USD bond due 2020.


The 6% USD perp bond crash to 26 after the inital panic selling. But within 1 hr, it was up from 26 to 35. May look into the shorter dated 3.625% USD bond due Mar 18. It was trading at 98 two mths ago. Now the bond price is 66/67.

[DC33_2008]

Need your advice. Bought FCN BP-Shell-Chevron on 9 May at Low for 8 p.a. Now should have gone up. How is it in terms of risk now.

Many investors already loss 100% of their investments if they have subscribed to their Rights in July 2016 and kept all the shares unsold.
They used the money raised from rights to redeem the 6.625% USD bond due 2020.


The 6% USD perp bond crash to 26 after the inital panic selling. But within 1 hr, it was up from 26 to 35. May look into the shorter dated 3.625% USD bond due Mar 18. It was trading at 98 two mths ago. Now the bond price is 66/67.

[Kelonguni]

In terms of stocks I am really puzzled.

All those I mentioned gained more than a few %.

Solid blue chips have also gained more than 10%. Sold, took profits, bought on dip again and now another 10+% gains.

Why then consider those that offer generally lower interests and virtually no price gains, but the possibility of total loss?

[cbsh38584]

Need your advice. Bought FCN BP-Shell-Chevron on 9 May at Low for 8 p.a. Now should have gone up. How is it in terms of risk now.

I dont like the idea of doing FCN during bull run. I have been rejecting all derivative products (FCN , ELN etc etc ) for the past few mths from my banker.
Anyway, these 3 stocks are OK. If it really fall below the strike price. Just hold it.

[bargain hunter]

In terms of stocks I am really puzzled.

All those I mentioned gained more than a few %.

Solid blue chips have also gained more than 10%. Sold, took profits, bought on dip again and now another 10+% gains.

Why then consider those that offer generally lower interests and virtually no price gains, but the possibility of total loss?

markets are more than just rational investing. there are speculation and gambling elements as well.

[cbsh38584]

Need your advice. Bought FCN BP-Shell-Chevron on 9 May at Low for 8 p.a. Now should have gone up. How is it in terms of risk now.

FYI, I did one (Dual accured interest) DAC on China life in 2015. Simlair to FCN but with a K.O feature on every calendar mth.
After collecting almost for 6 mths coupon, it went way below my strike price (30%) in ealy 2016. After 1.8 yrs (May17), the stock price is still 2%
below my strike price But if include the coupon I have earned. A decent a few % profit only if I sell now.If include FX gain of 8% (USD SGD). It will be 10%.


Better dont go for derivative products. Unless you have the experience. I know one very experience investors from CS. He has been doing accumulators (min US$500k to 1million ) on Apple , Alibaba , US banks stocks etc and also investment grade bond only. I did not follow him as I prefer to concentrate more on bonds . He is making alot of money from it as it get K.O.

[teddybear]

The question you ask is analogous to people buying aging 99-years LH properties....

In terms of stocks I am really puzzled.

All those I mentioned gained more than a few %.

Solid blue chips have also gained more than 10%. Sold, took profits, bought on dip again and now another 10+% gains.

Why then consider those that offer generally lower interests and virtually no price gains, but the possibility of total loss?