Teddy, he is not trader material la. Mai sabo people le.
Teddy, he is not trader material la. Mai sabo people le.
The three laws of Kelonguni:
Where there is kelong, there is guni.
No kelong no guni.
More kelong = more guni.
Noble has dropped again to near historical low of S$0.35 per share................
Isn't there rumours of White knight all along?
Where is the "white knight" after stock went up >$0.70 recently?
Looks like people shouting "wolf coming" for them to speculate up and get out fast?
Meanwhile, DJIA has hit THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL Peak of 22,048..............
But it will go up some more! (not like OCR private properties prices, I think no room for further increase...........)
SPX should be a better representation of US stock markets.
Anyway, SPX was trading in tight 1% range for the longest time while DOW making its ATH charge. The series of ATHs attained was due almost single-handedly to Boeing; investors of Boeing were/are pricing in the prospect of War.
Divergences are everywhere, it is time to be cautious.
We should be able to tell in the coming days/weeks what is in store for us. Hopefully, what was unleashed last night is a normal correction of lower degree.
It is going to be all about the velocity of the correction. For the start, we want to see Australia staying above 5650 today.
3 Jan 2017: DJIA ~20,000.
23 Aug 2017: DJIA 21,846; S&P500 2,446.5
When US increases interest rates more, DJIA and S&P500 should go up more!
But Noble will have more difficulty servicing their loans, not sure about Olam (but probably not good shape too as too heavily leveraged).
Today 25 Nov 2017 news:
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/comp...reat-yet-again
Noble Group risks equity wipeout as shares retreat yet again
The shares sank as much as 9.2 per cent to 16.8 Singapore cents, the lowest since 1999, and traded at 16.9 Singapore cents at 2:11pm. The stock has lost 18 per cent since Friday’s close, dropping for a seventh week. The market capitalisation, which once topped US$10 billion, has collapsed to just US$167 million.
Still, as Noble Group’s troubles deepened earlier this month, Fitch Ratings Inc said a default “appears probable”, cutting the credit rating deeper into junk territory.
To : 80% of retail investors (herd instinct), income earner earning between $3k to $12k/mth , young & old investors,
mgrs , engineers / technicians / suprs, taxi driver , salesman/executive, housewife etc
Subject : Live to tell my 25 yrs journey in investing.
Struggle is always part of survival. You struggle to put a decent meal for your own family. Do you struggle to find meaning in your life? Are you overworked and constantly not enough money or just enough money & unable to save much ? How you wish you had better financial health to lessen the struggle.
To avoid the struggle in later in life (above age 40+), you need to start your financial planning as early as possible. I am convinced that investing early & wisely at young age is very important. Mostly importantly, when you invest, you need to choose a journey of investing against the herd instinct group of majority people.
I have made many mistakes & survived . I survived 1997/98 Asia financial in 1998. I survived the 2008/2009 US financial crisis which I need to thanks our former Dr Tony Tan who warned about the imminent crisis in Mar 2008 b4 the once in a century US financial crisis started in Sept 2008.
We remember 10% of what we read, 20% of what we see and lastly 90% of what we experience. I trade from high risk FX (knock in/out), DCI, accumulator , ELN , FCN , pennys stocks , bond etc .So no input or advise from others (bankers, Remiser , friends, Analyst, Jim Roger , Marc Faber , Soro etc) is as vivid as long lasting as it own trading experience. Real experience is the teacher of all things.
So I will “LIVE TO TELL” through my 25 yrs experience of trading investing which I did not win on TRADING stocks (due to my emotional weakness trading behavior during the inital young age) or did not lose much due to my ability to cut lost. But I made money from ppty , bonds & unit trust. I started investing in 1991/1992
My very first stock, unit trust , IPO , US stock in 1991/92
============================================
1) My 1st stock that I bought is Clob share M'sia Public Bank @ S$0.29 (S$15k) in 1992 & sold the same yr 1992.
If you invested about RM15,000 in Public Bank’s shares in 1992 and reinvested the dividends, you would be sitting on RM1 million worth of Public Bank shares 2017.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2) I remember I took MRT to citibank at shenton branch & bought unit trust, Prudential Spore managed fund @1.00 (S$20,000) in 1992.
I took profit @1.2 mths later.
If you invested $20,000 in 1992. It is worth $85k (Price is now $4.20 or est 5.8% yearly compounded return)
Better than CPF SA return.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3) 1st IPO Ascott @1.00. I remember I cut lost @ 0.96 mths later
I think they have changed to a new name. Should be make $ if I hold till now.
4) 1st US stock in 1991- Read Rite doing hard disk part (I cut lost a Mths later)
I think they have de-listed.Cant find the stock name.
5) In 1992, two of my colleague ask me t join them to buy the LAST aptment unit avail at Kembangun MRT. I dont know why I trusted them & decided to invest together with them.They did not have the CASH but only CPF-OA $. So the arrangement is I come out CASH $35k as downpayment. They will come out CPF $ which I do not know whether it will work out. I rushed to issue a cash order to the agent.But it was sold an hour ago. Maybe it is a blessing disguise as I found later that one of my colleague cannot be trusted.
"Men" tell a thousand lies .They will lie to get out of it and hurt (huge financial loses) all of us through our own emotional stupidity, HERD INSTINCT, GREED & FEAR. The temptation to manipulate , rigging & cheating are becoming very bad. Many ignorant investors include high IQ doctor, dentist & most the main street are getting burnt badly.
Fool me ONCE , shame on YOU.
Fool me TWICE, shame on ME.
Fool me 3rd TIME,How STUPID I am.
Fool me the 4th TIME, I need to be CONDEMNED.
Fool me the 5th , 6th TIME, Totally hopeless gamblers
The final tragedy hopeless GAMBLER stage will bring financial disaster to his/her family.
It is very clear that investors preferred a high return with a low risk. But the risk-return investment research shown it is not possible unless it is a SCAM or a plan FRAUD. Time and time again, the same old trick(very high return) is employed, and worked. Most people believe it is govt job to lookout for Scam companies. The Scammers like GOLD Guarantee , FX currency , Land banking , wine & farm investment etc are simply too smart. So it is not easy for our govt to eradicate check on it completely.
I remember I went to GOLD guarantee office after they offered me $100 capland voucher. The salesman facial expression is exactly the same as the one I watched in the HK drama, the bad guy. He showed me the cash counter really transacting cash & gold. I have the ability to imagine. I imagine they are actors & actress doing the "ACTING". He shown me the picture of Boss is on the CNA news. Later, I think it is quite easy to use digital image to edit the picture. After the talk, I said I will reconsider 1st. I took the $100 capland voucher & spend on the same day at nite.
The reason why S'poreans are still being conned are :
1) GREED. They want ridiculously High Returns.
2) Impatient. A investor worst quality is impatient. They want make fast money in the shortest time.
Let keep investing as simple as ABC. Let have a investing strategy without speculating , manipulation , GREED investing etc.
Growth stock - Invest in Global blue chip growth stocks
==================================
Apple , Microsoft , Amazon P&G , Google , Samsung (KR) , Hong Hai (TW) , facebook , Alibaba (China) , Tencent (China) , Ping Ann insurance (China) , Banks etc etc. Go to the top performing unit trust facesheet. You will able to find out more.
There are many sunset sector, industry, fashion etc. As long the CEO in-charge does not have a Sunset mindset & get ride of sunset product & move very fast to reinvent a new of product. This company stock will perform. SPH & singpost is too slow to react.
If you invested $10k of Google in 2004 at its IPO of $85, then you'd have $185,384.53 (12 yrs later - 2016). Today Dec 17.
It worth much more.
A $5,000 investment in the Amazon online retailer in 1997 would be worth $2.4 million (2017)
A $5,000 investment in the Microsoft stock in 1996 would be worth $50,000 in 2016.
13% per yr return. Today Dec 17, it will be worth much more.
Unit trust – Alternative investing
====================
Buying into a unit trust can keep investors from falling into this TRAP (investor worst quality is GREED & impatient ) due to their weak emotional behavior. "Men" tell a thousand lies .They will lie to get out of it and hurt (huge financial loses) all of us through our own emotional stupidity, HERD INSTINCT, GREED & FEAR.
Some of the best performing unit trust
1) Schroder Asian growth
2) AIA regional equity
3) Aberdeen pacfic equity
4) Prudential SG manage fund (now closed. Fund too big )
5)UOB united healthcare
6) HSBC china fund.
7) Global ETF fund
etc etc etc.
Buying into Global IPO stocks
==================
It required some knowledge & reading financial news.
Buy into 10 (each 5k - 10 stocks $50k) such global IPO stocks between 2k to 10k each which has the potential of >30% pa return.
Let say you have such 10 of these Global IPO stock with Big name like GIC , LiKashing etc investors & hold for 10 yrs to 20 yrs.
99% you will be a winner (Let say only 5 of these stocks survived) 10 to 20 yrs later if you stayed invested.
Initial invested capital of 5k (holding period 15 yrs - 30% annual return ) = $255k
5k (holding period 15yrs - 20% annual return) = $77k
5k (holding period 10 yrs - 15% annaul return ) = $ 40k.
5k (holding period 15 yrs - 10% annual return) = $21k
5k (holding period 10 yrs - 5% annaul return ) = $ 10k.
If you invested $10k of Google in 2004 at its IPO of $85, then you'd have $185,384.53 (12 yrs later - 2016). Today Dec 17.
It worth much more.
A $5,000 investment in the Amazon online retailer in 1997 would be worth $2.4 million (2017)
I bought China life insurance because of LiKashing $ HK$2.75 (high was HK$50)in 2003 a few days after IPO I bought China Petrolum because of warren buffet @HK$1.76 (high was HK$16) a few days after the IPO . Because I keep monitoring & evenutally took only >30% profit.If I hold till now (15 yrs later) . My return would be definitley > 10% pa including dividend payout.
One of the example the recent (nov17) IPO Razer Inc @ HK$3.88 (top end IPO pricing). Low end IPO pricing was HK$3.3. Recent high 4.9. Now drop to HK$3.75. Razer, whose early investors include Intel, Hong Kong's richest man Li Ka Shing, as well as Lee Hsien Yang, has also raised US$153 million from five cornerstone investors including Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC (US$20 million).
If you decide to buy one of the IPO stock & keep for 10 to 20 yrs.It may or may not perform. DO NOT MONITOR.
Invest in Crisis time – One of the most difficult investing decision
========================================
Patience is really key in crisis investing. Investing in crisis time is the most rewarding and it will shortened your journey to Financial Freedom. But it is one of the most difficult investing decision. Only the "very NEW investor , very experience investors who have gone through a few of these crisis , investors which has alot of CASH avail will only dare to invest.
2010 - Middle east crisis
2011 - Greece or Europe crisis
2012 - US deficit crisis (now all ok )
2015 - China crisis
2016 - Russia & Oil & gas crisis
In 2008, I did invest during the US financial crisis. Las Vegas at US$2+. Citigroup @US$1+. Too bad, I keep monitoring until I sold too early. I did buy again Citigroup at US$38 in 2012 (1 for 10 reverse stock split). Again I sold off too early. Now $75.
My investment strategy of buying some investment grade bond (crisis drop less) to collect coupon & will switch to equity
once crisis occur.In late 2015, the Russia & oil & gas crisis strike. I sold some of my investment grade bond & switch to OCBC (7.8)
DBS (13.8) , UOL (6+) , capland (2.98) , SPH reit (0.92)etc, BHP. Again I miss it again the huge profit if I hold till now. I sold off to early.
I have some consolation as the head of equity division who bought DBS @13+. also Sold off too early ($16+?)
CPF
===
Our CPF money is primarily for retirement funding. Not for other purpose like paying for your mortgage loan unless if u have no choice. When your finance health is much better. You should switch back from CPF to cash..Do not use your CPF for speculative investment.
My suggestion is to meet the full retirement sum (FRS) as young or early as possible by transfering your CPF OA (2.5%) to CPF SA (4% to 5%) if you have the capablilty or excess cash.If the person (age 35) has already met or exceeded the FRS ($166k minimum Sum), the annual interest earned in your CPF SA (4% to 5%) would take care of the increase in FRS ( range 2.5% to 3.5%). Once you have achieved your full retirement sum of $166k. You know that even somehow if you encountered bad luck of being SCAMMED. You know at least your still have enough CPF $ for basic retirement.
Lastly, Lee Kuan Yew definition of an educated man.
An educated man is a man never stop learning and wants to learn. I am not interested in whether a man has a PHD or not, an M.A for that matter a diploma.
Talk is easy, talk is cheap. "If only" people bought the right stocks. What happen if they bought the wrong one? Nobody can predict the future. Alot of stocks delist or drop below the value from the market if u were to hold 15years. Listen and read people made big profit very shiok but not easy. Luck and timing play a part in this big gambling world.
Thanks for the sharing.
The World is full of sound some are noise others are music, wish you enough the music when you share.
Invest in Crisis time – One of the most difficult investing decision
========================================
Investing in crisis time is the most rewarding and it will shortened your journey to Financial Freedom. It is also the opportunities to recoup your past many years of losses.
My friend & his sister (accountant) has been a active trading of stock for the past 20 yrs. Her sister told me 10 yrs ago that she had lost equivalent of one bungalow (a few millions). She likes many retail investors like to buy penny stocks, "hearsay" stock, buy during optimism (high) , buy stocks from her biz friends recommendation etc.
My friend just like his elder sister also lost a million + due to his inability to cut loss. But it is during the Lehman crisis in 2008/09, he took the courage to buy Las Vegas sand (dropped from US$147 to US$2+ within a year) , citigroup & Bank of America. He sold most of it in 2016 & he recoup back all his past a million+ dollars of 20 yrs losses within 6 years. I told him to invest in bond in 2011 with leveraging & he did . More aggressive & buying more risky junk trade than me (he buys > $5m). He is doing well for the past 5 yrs in bond investing. But I do not know whether the bull run in the bond mkt will last.
CPF VS Tokio marine saving plan (15 yrs) VS stocks
==========================================
30k into my son CPF - 15 yrs later . Est 46k base on 3.5% to 5%.
30k into Tokio marine saving plan - 15 yrs later. Guarantee return 32k. Projected return 39k to 46k.
* FYI, my older friend bought a saving plan from bank. When it was matured. It is way below the projected return. He threatened
to blow up the issues to media. Eventually, the reverse it to a more acceptable amount. Older people not advisable to buy saving plan ?
I bought my 1st whole life policy in 1988. Projected return est 5.75% to 9%. But 28 yrs later, the actual return was 1.87%.
They said that they lost $ during the 1997/98 financial crisis. I terminated it & move to my CPF "saving acct". Luckily , it is only
a small amt .
FYI, the stock was $3.5 during the crisis in 1997/98. Today it is $24+. The CEO, directors & shareholders getting richer. But the polices holders getting poorer. So there is a saying that rich & smart people just buy only term policy for protection & invest into insurance stocks.
I have invested into US potential growth stock. Est amt S$30K+. I have not monitor the stocks for the last few mths. I will not monitor it as
it may affect my determination of holding for 15 yrs. I just want to show it to my son 15 yrs later. Why it is important to have a long term
horizon investing. I wil slowly pick up more when the timing is right. Let see whether it can growth from 30k to >$100k 15 years later.
Initial invested capital of 30k (holding period 15 yrs - 30% annual return ) = $1.5m
30k(holding period 15yrs - 20% annual return) = $462k
30k (holding period 15 yrs - 15% annual return ) = $245k.
30k (holding period 15 yrs - 10% annual return) = $125k
30k (holding period 15 yrs - 5% annual return ) = $62k.
============================================================================================
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stoc...-gains-of-2017
Looks like 2018 will be another great year for stocks!
The markets always reward those who are willing to take risks and not follow the herds (who act based on listening to other people's advise or warnings etc)!
I did involve in Apple macintosh small production briefly in 1991. Very little knowledge what Apple technologies or the CEO Steve job.
US$5k invested in Apple stock. 20+ yrs later,the return is US$3.68million.
FYI, Apple steals the patent from creative & later paid $100m to settle out the court. Apple stock continues to soar but creative share drop like crazy from $60 (yr 2000) to $1.1 (2018). So buy global US stock.
Apple is a long term winner. Apple has many sunset products like Ipod1,2,3.. to Iphone1,2,3,4,5,6.. But the CEO doesnt has a sunset mind. It keep reinventing brand new products & stay ahead of the competitors. I will buy it when it comes.
“Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
― Martin Luther King, Jr.
OUT WITH THE SHIT TRASH
https://www.facebook.com/shutdowntrs
minority,
Wow, the biggest liar still trying to lie?
I just need to refer others here back to my previous posts and all FACTS are there for everyone to see that I said:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...397#post532397
Originally Posted by teddybear
http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...057#post526057
Invest in Crisis time – 1st class honour degree (SAF sword of honour Vs ITE school (It the end)
===========================================================
In 2007, My friend (insurance agent) bring along very important guest (his brother in law) to join us for
a badminton game. He was SAF sword of honour recipient. He must be physical fit, very agile & intelligence.
(1st class honour degree) He got a very firm handshake.A firm handshake is a universal sign of strength
and assuredness.
When I play with him. I was quite a bit surprise that a very simple high & slow shuttlecock serve to
him. He can miss it easily a few times. He was quite embarrassed & said that this was his 1st time playing.
After the game. We had a nice chit chat. He was going to London to work for a UK bank under fixed
income department.
I never heard of him until when the US banking crisis started in 2008. He would call my friend (brother in law)
from UK to update him on the US/UK banking crisis. Bear stearn ( global investment bank) will collapse.
Next will be more UK banks , Morgan Stanley will be next one , followed by citigroup etc etc By late 2008,
the world banking stocks had crashed almost 90%.
My friend who is a successful insurance agent (earning $200k/year) has never invested in stock before. It is his
wife who manage the family expenses + investment which did not make $ . Luckily, his wife is also a very cautious
type & will not buy big amount.
My friend thought that this is a very good opportunities to buy US banks stocks. So he tell his wife to use $100k fund
to buy a few US bank like Citibank, goldman sach etc. His wife rejected the idea as her brother in UK said that the
US bank like citigroup will collapse. My friend said to her wife that the US govt will never let the banks to collapse.
The US banks will be "rescued" by the govt. They had a small quarrel. He offered to reduce from $100k to $50k & later
to $20k. Yet his "CEO" wife rejected it as her brother in UK told her to prepare for the worst to happen. But it never happen.
Sometimes, the more intelligence you are or the more you know.You will chicken out as you knows too much. Knows too
much prevent you to thinking calmly.
Investing in crisis time is the most rewarding and it will shortened your journey to Financial Freedom. It is also the opportunities to recoup your past many years of losses.
“Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
― Martin Luther King, Jr.
OUT WITH THE SHIT TRASH
https://www.facebook.com/shutdowntrs
A very emotional investor will be more fearful buying individual stock during the " extreme fearful" time.
So it will be better off buying unit trust (diversify risk) rather than buying individual stock (concentration risk).
Schroder Asian growth fund = Risk 8 (high) (CPF OA , SRS & Cash)
====================================================
Top holding = Alibaba , Tencent, AIA HK, Taiwan TSMC , HDFC bank , Samsung etc
Historical dividend = 2016 = 10cts , 2015=10 cts 2014=0.115 cts .
Dec13 price = 2.65
May15 price = 3.05
Nov16 price = 2.77 - Dividend payout = 11 cts
Mar17 price = 3.06 - Dividend payout = 14.6cts
July18 price = 3.68 - (3.68-3.06)/2.06 = 6.7% 1% sale charge = UP 5.7%
Dec13 to Jul18 = (3.68-2.65)/2.65 =38% (up 38% since 2013 not included dividend payout)
1st state dividend fund USD - Risk 8 (high) ( CPF OA , SRS CASH)
===============================================
Top holding = OCBC , Taiwan TSMC , CK Hutchsion . LG etc
Historical dividend = 2016 = 6.3cts , 2015=6.6 cts 2014=5.85 cts 2013= 5.5 cts...
May 12 price = 1.188
Dec13 price = 1.40
May15 price = 1.71 Dividend payout FY15 = 0.047 cts
Nov16 price = 1.58 Dividend payout FY16 = 0.046 cts
Mar17 price = 1.68 Dividend payout FY17 =0.052 cts
July18 price = 1.40
Fulleraton SGD income fund - Risk 2 (LOW ) SRS & CASH (dont know why CPF OA not allow)
=======================================================================
Top holding - Investment grade bonds (Fund grow too big - closed )
Historical dividend = 2016 = 4.4 cts , 2015=4.2 cts 2014=4.3 cts 2013= 3.8 cts
Dec12 = 1.046
May15 = 1.0508
Nov16 = 1.0453
Mar17 = 1.0525
July18 = 1.04
Aberdeen Pacific Equity Fund SGD - Cash,CPF-OA, SRS
===================================
Feb 14 = $4.5
Feb16 = $4.09
July17 = $5.92
July18 =$5.95
Today The Straits time FRONT PAGE news - ASIAN MARKETS SELL-OFF
It mean fear in the market. A buy signal for emerging market.
Fear can turn into Worst fear. It mean a best buy signal
When all world central bank pump in money to rescue the stock market. It is all time best buy. But you need to wait much longer time.
seems like a buy signal? singapore banks are quite cheap (on valuations/dividend yield) after yesterday's selloff.
for STI and the banks, they have dropped 20% off their this May's peak over the last 5 months. Property stocks have dropped 30+ to 40+% lol. Bank earnings are likely to stay defensive as will their dividends. I'm as usual just taking a bargain hunting perspective that on a risk reward balance, current prices and below may yield higher rewards than risks (just my view). as bro cbsh is hinting, 1st sign of fear can nibble small. if it drops more can buy more and bigger.
https://www.cyberquote.com.sg/Traini...compressed.pdf
Introduction
This course is designed for finance professionals who want to gain a deeper understanding and practical knowledge of investment and trading concepts, developed accordingly to IBF standards.
Programme Objectives
Equip participants with the professional knowledge of Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Equip participants with practical skills in devising investment strategies and proper portfolio management techniques
Enable participants to provide quality sales support and financial advice to their customers
Target Audience
Trading representatives, finance professionals and investors who want to gain a deeper understanding and practical knowledge of investment and trading concepts.
Course Outline
Introduction to Equities Investment, how financial market ecosystem works and the impact of market trends
Fundamental Analysis, to determine a company’s intrinsic value
Technical Analysis, To determine the existence and strength of trends to forecast future price movements and market positions to take
Behavioural Finance, To understand how individual irrational financial decisions can impact on investment decisions and performance of investments
Complete Equities Investment System, To derive a process in making rational investment decisions through understanding of individual investment objective with active risk management and accounting techniques
Learning Outcomes
Raise performance with improved awareness of financial markets and advisory skills
Proving value to clients with improved client servicing skills
Career progression in the financial industry towards senior dealers/ remisiers and head of dealing team
Building themselves as credible wealth-advisors and providing assurance to their clients
Programme Structure
This lesson will be focused on active learning. To achieve this practical process, the trainer will first introduce the theoretical concept of the topic before engaging in practical activities. At the end of each day, every participant will be able to derive their own analysis on their individually chosen investment using the techniques they learn during the day. To confirm their understanding, assessments will be given throughout the day to reinforce their understanding.
https://www.cyberquote.com.sg/Training/?page_id=3478