Take it or regret later

[TOKARA]

It is not complete to look at the property market between 2009 to now because this period is only part of the property cycle. One should look at the period from 1990 to now to have a good understanding of how the market actually works even though every cycle is different due to different circumstances.

Your experiences and decision in 2009 was "right" because the world was just starting to react to the Lebman's crisis in 2008 with the expectation that the US would be experiencing a similar financial crisis like the one in Asia in 1997. Singapore then was still in the midst of recession. What the FED did to save the US from a severe recession was to flood the market with cheap money and with near zero interest rate were unprecedential. These cheap money and low interest rates caused asset inflation across many cities in the world including Singapore.

What the FED did did not provide real economic growth. The slow down in China is going to hit US much more than it ability to generate domestic growth. At home, the government's firmness in preventing asset bubbles is working and the soft landing is slowing making its present felt.

There were many people who sold their flats in late 2009 and hoping to buy back later were severely punished. If you are not one of them, count yourself lucky.

If you think you have missed the boat to buy in 2009 by looking at today's price, sure you feel sour; but fed not because between 2009 and now the cycle is still "not complete". Currently, many resale transactions in RCR (less in OCR) have already reached 2010/2011 level. Prices in CCR had already "crashed".

If you had bought between 2009 and 2013 and are collecting rents over the past years, it should not bother you whether prices go up or down further. If you bought between 2013 and now, you should be financially solid to be able to ride out the cycle. Having said that, of course we are going to see more bank sales going forward because of the declining rental market, softer job market and the expected rising interest rate. This is normal as the market wipes out the weak buyers.

Property investment is really for the long term (10 years at least). In between cycles, there will be minor adjustments due to both latent and effective demands.

We are still in the midst of adjustment in this current cycle.

Appreciate your insights

Myself a noob and just bought one off from the bank...really need to tahan this adjustment wave now

[Citizen]

She sold all her property.

Property Soul is a property enthusiast who bought her first condominium unit for rent since 2002. In the next 4½ years, she built up a portfolio of five private properties. By 2008, its total value had more than doubled. In 2010 and 2011, she sold four of the properties, realizing a net profit of 80 to 120 percent.

Thanks Arcachon for your CSI , indeed she had a hidden agenta. No wonder she kept writing bad about property investment.

[Citizen]

Appreciate your insights

Myself a noob and just bought one off from the bank...really need to tahan this adjustment wave now

Don't tell me other investments are much easier to tahan ?

[Arcachon]

Thanks Arcachon for your CSI , indeed she had a hidden agenda. No wonder she kept writing bad about property investment.

No one person can move the market just by talking about it.

The government has done a good job to hold the boat so that more can get on it.

As to how long can they can hold depends on the current under the boat.

Every cycle there will be those who chose to sit by the bank and wait for a bigger boat and those who will get on the boat when they see one.

At the end of the day, the boat will still have to move because of the current.

[Arcachon]

For those on the market, the raw material for building property have gone up due to China going green.

They have enough of the dirty air.

Moral of the story, I need to pay more on the building material the property should be cheaper right.

Came back from France after 8 years and 8 months already see three colleagues got cancer.

One just passes away, how many life can you live.

Sitting on the bank waiting for the bigger boat may not be so wise as the second, minute, hours, days, weeks, months of your life burn away.

Ok, going for breakfast then steam room and then swimming to burn my days remaining on earth.

[DC33_2008]

Watch out for bank sale of OCRs in the next 2 years.

It is not complete to look at the property market between 2009 to now because this period is only part of the property cycle. One should look at the period from 1990 to now to have a good understanding of how the market actually works even though every cycle is different due to different circumstances.

Your experiences and decision in 2009 was "right" because the world was just starting to react to the Lebman's crisis in 2008 with the expectation that the US would be experiencing a similar financial crisis like the one in Asia in 1997. Singapore then was still in the midst of recession. What the FED did to save the US from a severe recession was to flood the market with cheap money and with near zero interest rate were unprecedential. These cheap money and low interest rates caused asset inflation across many cities in the world including Singapore.

What the FED did did not provide real economic growth. The slow down in China is going to hit US much more than it ability to generate domestic growth. At home, the government's firmness in preventing asset bubbles is working and the soft landing is slowing making its present felt.

There were many people who sold their flats in late 2009 and hoping to buy back later were severely punished. If you are not one of them, count yourself lucky.

If you think you have missed the boat to buy in 2009 by looking at today's price, sure you feel sour; but fed not because between 2009 and now the cycle is still "not complete". Currently, many resale transactions in RCR (less in OCR) have already reached 2010/2011 level. Prices in CCR had already "crashed".

If you had bought between 2009 and 2013 and are collecting rents over the past years, it should not bother you whether prices go up or down further. If you bought between 2013 and now, you should be financially solid to be able to ride out the cycle. Having said that, of course we are going to see more bank sales going forward because of the declining rental market, softer job market and the expected rising interest rate. This is normal as the market wipes out the weak buyers.

Property investment is really for the long term (10 years at least). In between cycles, there will be minor adjustments due to both latent and effective demands.

We are still in the midst of adjustment in this current cycle.

[Arcachon]

Watch out for bank sale of OCRs in the next 2 years.

Maybe a bit of study who is buying OCR would help.

I know a number with fully paid HDB with tons of cash still waiting for the Big boat.

[DC33_2008]

I did not qualify, 'in some locations'.

Maybe a bit of study who is buying OCR would help.

I know a number with fully paid HDB with tons of cash still waiting for the Big boat.

[Citizen]

Watch out for bank sale of OCRs in the next 2 years.

Don't need to wait for next 2 years , everyday also have bank sale la.

[teddybear]

Wait for BIG DISCOUNT ones, and many many more to come as loan interest rate goes up, retrenchment and jobless rate start to increase, economy goes down and foreigners leaving and few will rent or will ask for cut-throat rent (like $1500 pm for a 3 Bedder private condo, and this even happened for Upper Bukit Timah RCR area, not to mention any other Tom Dick & Harry OCR locations)........

As to the HDB upgraders, they will be hit left-right-centre that they will stopped thinking about upgrading to private condos (let alone think about buying a private condo even for investment) and ONLY WORRYING whether they will be able to keep their JOBs and endure till recession over and better time comes........

Don't need to wait for next 2 years , everyday also have bank sale la.

[Arcachon]

Wait for BIG DISCOUNT ones, and many many more to come as loan interest rate goes up,

Fixed at 1.68% for the next 2 years.

retrenchment and jobless rate start to increase

Singapore have over a million foreign worker. ???????

economy goes down.

Everywhere go down but we still build MRT station one after another, Airport extension, etc. ??????

foreigners leaving

Go back to US or Europe and become jobless ???????

$1500 pm for a 3 Bedder private condo.

My HDB is renting out at $2600 can tell me where I want to rent.

As to the HDB upgraders, they will be hit left-right-centre that they will stopped thinking about upgrading to private condos (let alone think about buying a private condo even for investment) and ONLY WORRYING whether they will be able to keep their JOBs and endure till recession over and better time comes........

Should go Marine Parade HDB carpark and take a look at what car they are driving to understand what is HDB upgraders.

[Arcachon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLQ5LMn6Y5U

[Ilikeu]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLQ5LMn6Y5U

Looks good. Buy one more ppty in Jurong!?

[focus]

[Last month we just celebrated another wedding anniversary. I can still recall somebody said this to me many years ago,

“I am going to ask you one last time. If I don’t get a ‘yes’ this time, I might have to start looking elsewhere … You are a smart girl and I know you always do the right thing.”

I should have known that this is manipulation of my FOMO.

Cool.. this line would be what Frank Underwood(House of Cards) would say to get what he wants..

[Ilikeu]

Fixed at 1.68% for the next 2 years.

retrenchment and jobless rate start to increase

Singapore have over a million foreign worker. ???????

economy goes down.

Everywhere go down but we still build MRT station one after another, Airport extension, etc. ??????

foreigners leaving

Go back to US or Europe and become jobless ???????

$1500 pm for a 3 Bedder private condo.

My HDB is renting out at $2600 can tell me where I want to rent.

As to the HDB upgraders, they will be hit left-right-centre that they will stopped thinking about upgrading to private condos (let alone think about buying a private condo even for investment) and ONLY WORRYING whether they will be able to keep their JOBs and endure till recession over and better time comes........

Should go Marine Parade HDB carpark and take a look at what car they are driving to understand what is HDB upgraders.

As and when rental for 3 bedder private condo is at $1500... STI would probably be at 1500, Dow at less than 10000...
If anyone takes this view that it will happen, they should sell all..... and wait.
But is there anyone who will do that...?

[teddybear]

That is the rental for RCR condos........
And you can imagine how bad OCR condos will be?

Anyway, it is also a fact that majority's timing in investment is always wrong......

As and when rental for 3 bedder private condo is at $1500... STI would probably be at 1500, Dow at less than 10000...
If anyone takes this view that it will happen, they should sell all..... and wait.
But is there anyone who will do that...?

[Arcachon]

Last time SGD 1.50 can buy one big bowl of fish ball noodle.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sing...oney-supply-m3

SGD 6,600 can buy Circuit Road 3 room HDB.

Don't worry, we live in a Nanny state, pay million for the administrator they should know what they are doing.

Last time we have this for SGD 1.



Now we have this for a few million



Last time school are so Simple and Basic.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...#post131660036

[Citizen]

If you had bought between 2009 and 2013 and are collecting rents over the past years, it should not bother you whether prices go up or down further. If you bought between 2013 and now, you should be financially solid to be able to ride out the cycle. Having said that, of course we are going to see more bank sales going forward because of the declining rental market, softer job market and the expected rising interest rate. This is normal as the market wipes out the weak buyers.

Property investment is really for the long term (10 years at least). In between cycles, there will be minor adjustments due to both latent and effective demands.

We are still in the midst of adjustment in this current cycle.

Like you said, property investment is really for long term (at least 10 years). Then you said going to see more bank sales base on declining rental market. Which period of the buyers will be in bank sales? Before or after 2009?
What make you think property buyers after 2009 are weak and those before 2009 will be force to let bank foreclosure? (since they already hold their properties for almost or more than 10 years). Sighs!!

[Arcachon]

A lot of owners before 2009 and after 2009 are seating on a lot of cash waiting to buy more but ABSD and TDSR stop them from buying. Those who brought after Dec 2011 are those who have a lot of cash and cannot wait anymore. Those who brought after TDSR are those earning too much money don't know where to keep.

No one can talk down the market, same with no one can stop the market from going higher.

Time will proof market will adjust to reality.

[Arcachon]

29 June 2013. ------http://www.mas.gov.sg/~/media/MAS/Re...in_10Feb14.pdf

12 January 2013 ------https://www.iras.gov.sg/IRASHome/upl...0Annex%20I.pdf

On and after 14 Jan 2011 --- https://www.iras.gov.sg/irashome/Oth...tial-Property/

[Citizen]

Thanks Arcachon for your views, as i alway said you are positive. Am I wrong to say those who invested in local properties believe in singapore growth and they are prepared for long term. Those who don't believe in singapore growth even the prices are low they are not prepare to invest in local properties.

[Arcachon]

I was in France from Mar 2007 to Nov 2015, still cannot get myself to buy a French property.

But in Singapore if Bank can loan me I will still buy another one.

The rate of money printing is just unbelievable, still don't understand how they manage to keep the hyperinflation check.

[Kelonguni]

After understanding how to play this game, my only regret is not starting earlier.

But still in time to siam ABSD. Heng arh!

Actually ABSD slows down the rate of accumulation because it is paid upfront and cannot be loaned. Not an issue for the rich but more of a concern for the middle income.

[Arcachon]

Who paid for all this.

https://www.nparks.gov.sg/~/media/np...astal-loop.pdf

China has the ghost town, Japanese have this long time ago.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/wo...apan.html?_r=0

Lucky Singapore land too small to built road.

Japan spent too much on increasingly wasteful roads and bridges, and not enough in areas like education and social services, which studies show deliver more bang for the buck than infrastructure spending.

Everything our million dollar servant do, they do it for money (ROI)

[Arcachon]

Between 1991 and 1995, Japan spent some $2.1 trillion on public works, in an economy roughly half as large as that of the United States, according to the Cabinet Office.

Singapore spending is peanut compare to Japan and China.

[Ilikeu]

I was in France from Mar 2007 to Nov 2015, still cannot get myself to buy a French property.

But in Singapore if Bank can loan me I will still buy another one.

The rate of money printing is just unbelievable, still don't understand how they manage to keep the hyperinflation check.

Not easy to survive 8 years in a country like france....

[Arcachon]

The only thing I learn is never to use English to a French if you are not English.

[Ilikeu]

The only thing I learn is never to use English to a French if you are not English.

Indeed. They conduct internal meetings in french and refuse to do so in english.
Really tough for an asian there.

[Ilikeu]

That is the rental for RCR condos........
And you can imagine how bad OCR condos will be?

Anyway, it is also a fact that majority's timing in investment is always wrong......

When ppty is down and time to go in, most would have lost a lot too in stocks etc.
It is easy to say market will one day boom and will one day crush. But it is not easy to say when.

[Arcachon]

http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysi...tors-singapore

Don't know where the Doctor sleep at night.