Results 1 to 14 of 14

Thread: 5 Effective Techniques to Identify FIRE SALE Condo (MUST Read!!!)

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    44

    Lightbulb 5 Effective Techniques to Identify FIRE SALE Condo (MUST Read!!!)



    According to the latest Singapore Property Price Index, the home prices continue to hit lower benchmark, almost on par with the figure in 2010. This downward trend likely will not last for too long as the current chart shows it is quite close to the rock bottom in 2009.



    Warren Buffett once said that as an investor it is wise to be “Fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” It is now when others are fearful, you can enjoy a good value buying opportunity.

    However, how do you ensure that you are getting a good deal?
    To identify fire sale condo, you can read this entire article about the 5 techniques to identify fire sale condo, then learn to DIY or with the help of your real estate agent.




    1. Explore Singapore Property Auction

    When someone neglects to pay the monthly housing loan for certain timeframe, the bank will eventually repossess the property and put it on property auction, which usually comes with a good discount. However, the entire process can take several years, therefore these properties are often in need of some major repair.



    Colliers International, DTZ, Jones Lang Laselle and Knight Frank are the 4 season auctioneers for Singapore property auction. We can find the auction listing from the respective websites, which are updated monthly. The property auctions will be carried out every month at Amara Hotel.





    2. Search from EdgeProperty Map

    Typically most of the buyers are looking for properties through PropertyGuru.

    But surprisingly, this property portal does not provide any services related to fire sale condo or undervalued properties. Gathering market information to estimate the market value of the property and check if there is fire sale condo could be a very time-consuming process.

    Therefore, EdgeProperty implemented the unique feature into their property portal. Today, you can let the technology do the work. TheEdgeProperty Map can pick out undervalued listings by comparing the property’s asking price against its fair value. Other than that, the map search function even allows you to spot for undervalued properties within a preset radius of a certain landmark.



    A property listing will be shown in the yellow marker when the asking price falls below the Edge Fair Value, which is a valuation tool developed in collaboration with licensed valuers. The Edge Fair Value takes into consideration factors such as comparable transactions, floor level and size.

    Click here to try out.

    I'm busy right now, today I will be sharing only the first two techniques.
    Thanks for reading.
    To be continued...
    Please support my post by giving a simple comment at below. Thank you very much.
    (If you wish to read the complete version, you can always visit the website by clicking the link here.
    Last edited by yongyong85; 21-11-16 at 16:36.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Cannot disagree there will be FIRE SALE, but with TDSR since 29 June 2013.http://www.mas.gov.sg/news-and-publi...rty-loans.aspx

    That is 3 years ago, don't know the FIRE is big or tiny.

    Sell also cannot buy, don't know sell for what ?????

    If Sell needs to pay ABSD ?????

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

  4. #4
    teddybear's Avatar
    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    Won't be surprise to see many big "fire-selling" in the coming recession - Just that the "sellers" are not willing owners, but force-sold by banks!

    The property cooling measures (like TDSR) didn't help to prevent "force-selling", but actually help to create and cause more "force-selling"!

    When those owners' properties are being force-sold, it is not a decision they can decide that they don't want to sell, and whether they need to pay ABSD and will be hit with SSD or not etc.........

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Cannot disagree there will be FIRE SALE, but with TDSR since 29 June 2013.http://www.mas.gov.sg/news-and-publi...rty-loans.aspx

    That is 3 years ago, don't know the FIRE is big or tiny.

    Sell also cannot buy, don't know sell for what ?????

    If Sell needs to pay ABSD ?????

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,035

    Default

    Force-sold transactions for properties bought after 2013 are very rare.

    You need many conditions to be satisfied before it happens, especially for lower quantum properties, say those with loans less than 1million, average housing expenditures around or under 4K. Two persons below 50 each with income of 6K generates more than $3K of CPF combined every month on average.

    1. Valuation must be super low so that they cannot refinance.
    2. Both husband and wife need to lose their jobs at the same time.
    3. Both are not able to find new jobs.
    4. Both do not have a buffer of savings and/or CPF or other investments to cash out.
    5. Both cannot find a relative or friend to help tide them over.

    For all other cases, I believe the sellers would have enough time to negotiate to sell. Maybe still a fire sale below valuation for downgrading purposes (remember that they can still buy resale HDBs), but no one will be a sitting duck to wait until everything depleted then let the bank force-sell.

    To meet all the five sway conditions and kenna force sell, must be really really rare.

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Won't be surprise to see many big "fire-selling" in the coming recession - Just that the "sellers" are not willing owners, but force-sold by banks!

    The property cooling measures (like TDSR) didn't help to prevent "force-selling", but actually help to create and cause more "force-selling"!

    When those owners' properties are being force-sold, it is not a decision they can decide that they don't want to sell, and whether they need to pay ABSD and will be hit with SSD or not etc.........
    Last edited by Kelonguni; 21-11-16 at 20:48.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  6. #6
    teddybear's Avatar
    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    Obviously after 2013 very rare because economy is not in recession lah!

    Wait till Singapore's economy goes into recession (and is coming!).............
    By then:

    1) Don't need property valuation to be very low also get force-sold (if they even miss 1 instalment payment!)

    2) Don't need husband and wife to both lose their jobs at same time, quite a number of them just need 1 to lose their job and their still need to pay their monthly living expenses and will not have enough to pay mortgage monthly instalment!

    3) This is immaterial because their property already got force-sold after (2) happened!

    4) Buffer of savings? Quite a number don't and these are the ones that will have their properties being force-sold!
    Furthermore, if recession drag for too long, even those with buffer (but not big enough) will also end up seeing their properties being force-sold! (if not because of TDSR, they would have a MUCH BIGGER buffer and may not run into their properties being force-sold problem!)
    CPF? Oh ho ho, a lot of their CPF money stuck in Medisave and Special Account, but can't touch!

    5) When in recession, their relatives and friends also very scared their lose their jobs, you think they dare to tide others over? (and end up their own properties being force-sold!)

    In coming Singapore's recession, you will see the seriousness and how bad the property cooling measures (like TDSR) will cause more properties to get force-sold!

    So in reality, Singapore's economy just need to go into recession for more than 1 year and you will start to see more and more force-selling, don't need to meet all your 5 sway conditions!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Force-sold transactions for properties bought after 2013 are very rare.

    You need many conditions to be satisfied before it happens, especially for lower quantum properties, say those with loans less than 1million, average housing expenditures around or under 4K. Two persons below 50 each with income of 6K generates more than $3K of CPF combined every month on average.

    1. Valuation must be super low so that they cannot refinance.
    2. Both husband and wife need to lose their jobs at the same time.
    3. Both are not able to find new jobs.
    4. Both do not have a buffer of savings and/or CPF or other investments to cash out.
    5. Both cannot find a relative or friend to help tide them over.

    For all other cases, I believe the sellers would have enough time to negotiate to sell. Maybe still a fire sale below valuation for downgrading purposes (remember that they can still buy resale HDBs), but no one will be a sitting duck to wait until everything depleted then let the bank force-sell.

    To meet all the five sway conditions and kenna force sell, must be really really rare.
    Last edited by teddybear; 21-11-16 at 23:03.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    386

    Default

    Int rates up, durian must fall! For those thinking it came late, you're damn right. For those thinking it will never happen, wait and see.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,035

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by pmet View Post
    Int rates up, durian must fall! For those thinking it came late, you're damn right. For those thinking it will never happen, wait and see.
    For very high quantum units, last few years and right now already got durian.

    Don't forget that even TDSR is under Govt control and can be adjusted.

    And interest rates short term orientation is up, but it definitely cannot sustain because of various reasons including US own domestic reasons. If it really does so, money will be devalued even faster and we will be staring at 1 mil HDB for even outskirts.

    Given the few that qualify to buy for the past years, the ability to near break even with rent, the real backings behind the owners, the real intentions of foreign buyers, and the defensive nature of Singaporeans to begin with, force sold for post TDSR is really unlikely. I speak from the angle of almost everyone I know with private properties.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Without facts and figures anything also can say, just AssUme.

  10. #10
    teddybear's Avatar
    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    Are you referring to the below statements?

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Without facts and figures anything also can say, just AssUme.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    For very high quantum units, last few years and right now already got durian.

    Don't forget that even TDSR is under Govt control and can be adjusted.

    And interest rates short term orientation is up, but it definitely cannot sustain because of various reasons including US own domestic reasons. If it really does so, money will be devalued even faster and we will be staring at 1 mil HDB for even outskirts.

    Given the few that qualify to buy for the past years, the ability to near break even with rent, the real backings behind the owners, the real intentions of foreign buyers, and the defensive nature of Singaporeans to begin with, force sold for post TDSR is really unlikely. I speak from the angle of almost everyone I know with private properties.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,035

    Default

    We have done several assumptions.

    1. Interest rates will rise very much - as of now, we can project US rising up to 0.5% due to very good data. Further than that, it's empty talk.

    2. We are assuming US does well and all other markets suffer. It wasn't long before Yellen held that promise several years ago and all we have so far is a 0.25% hike. Some also let go because of that, but look what followed.

    If you know US, it will be huge lightning but little rain. Almost all the rara start from US. Let's see it again, and again.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,035

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by pmet View Post
    Int rates up, durian must fall! For those thinking it came late, you're damn right. For those thinking it will never happen, wait and see.
    Economic reasons can understand.

    Regarding interest rates, here goes...

    https://www.integratedmortgageplanne...-house-prices/
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Good History lesson on interest rate and property price but did not factor in Gold standard, QE, etc.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    44

    Default

    Wow... Didn't expect there are many response regarding fire sale condo topic.
    Although there are some feeling that the durian will drop when interest rate increasing or economy crisis coming soon, but we must get ourself ready to pick up the durian too.

    Okay, let me continue with the other 3 techniques to identifyfire sale condo.

    3. Search from SRX Hotspot
    Download data from SRX Hotspots. This is one of the SRX powerful features.





    You have to sign up before can download the PDF report, which is compiled with agent listings consist comparison between the asking price and X-Value.

    X-Value refers to a computer-generated appraisal of a home’s market value. It sources from the nation’s most comprehensive property database and instantaneously calculates a single value for every home using best practices methodologies, including comparable market analysis.





    Therefore, for the listings with asking price lower than X-Value can be deemed as undervalued properties.

    However, technology comes with limitations, but we should leverage on them to ease our search process and identify fire sale condo.






    4. Read Classified Advertisement

    Instead of flipping through the newspaper classified advertisement, now we can download the Straits Times Classified App and read through our smartphones.



    This is extremely convenient and absolutely free. Traditionally we have to read all the ads in order to find your desired listings. Now, we can use use the keyword search function on the mobile app to look for fire sale condo.

    These ‘Fire Sale’ listings are usually a good hint that is a motivated seller and is a good way to secure an undervalued property. Not only that, high chance that the listings for sale by owners are also serious sellers as they spent a lot of money to advertise on newspaper. You should call to get an understanding of how motivated the seller is. This way you can find out how much the opportunity you can negotiate.







    5. Look for Projects Approaching ABSD Deadline

    As the 5-year due date for their Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) remission approaches, some developers are giving a very attractive discount to buyers.

    Under the ABSD remission rules, developers will have to pay 10 to 15% ABSD on the purchase of land if they could not completely sell all their units within five years of the date award.

    Download data on sites sold by URA.
    https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/land-sale...istorical-data

    Look for the private residential land sold in 2011 and 2012, then spot for the unsold condo projects. However, the URA data only shows the road name, not the project name.

Similar Threads

  1. Is this a FIRE sale??
    By radha08 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 33
    -: 07-06-12, 00:14
  2. Agent marketing techniques...
    By radha08 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 12
    -: 29-04-12, 01:41
  3. Today I Si-Be heng...better than fire sale...
    By radha08 in forum Coffeeshop Talk
    Replies: 4
    -: 11-12-11, 18:21
  4. any fire sale?
    By NoodyGirl in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 14
    -: 01-09-10, 17:23
  5. Fire sale? Don't hold your breath
    By mr funny in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 1
    -: 31-08-08, 16:03

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •