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Thread: One Reason Why Recent Adjustments to Cooling Measures are Bad Signs for SG Buyers

  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    In practice, only a few groups might do it.

    1. Cashing out to support children in property purchase or other needs.
    2. Cashing out for retirement needs.
    3. Making use of the still low interest rate

    These people do not need another loan if they have enough cash and CPF at hand to pay off the new property in whole. They likely will have to pay ABSD unless its their children or relative purchasing (first owner).

    Whether many take up this option remains to be seen (like the Silver sheme for HDB lease purchase). But having an additional scheme does support the market by further qualifying the already rich who likely prefers property as assets.
    In Practice, only a few will do it as the ABSD will bite in.

  2. #42
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    Agree, that's why I feel the ball is now mainly in the hands of foreign buyers, some of which are exempt from ABSD. And the foreigner groups that do not mind paying the ABSD as long as there is certainty that there is a price support level.

    Quote Originally Posted by stl67 View Post
    In Practice, only a few will do it as the ABSD will bite in.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  3. #43

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Still applicable in the sense that previously someone for example who has paid up 80% (loan left 20%) will never be able to loan again or raise enough cash for a second purchase with the previous TDSR rules. Or if he has paid up 50% but property price rose by 100+%, resulting in him effectively able to loan out more based on current property prices.

    In this revision, they can loan back 30%, and plus existing cash and CPF pay 100% for a subsequent property plus taxes (for himself / herself or for a relative). The full cash down property can then be used for two homes, or for any one to be rented out... Some retirees are looking for smaller homes to stay I guess...

    can i rephrase/summarize your points by saying that:
    1) tdsr allows loan against income
    2) while current relaxation re-allows loan against asset value
    3) the general run-up since 2009, or even 2005-6 for earlier buyers (e.g. retirees who have an incentive to re-enter market for children/retirement asset's sake) means existing property owners have the home-equity base to re-participate in market
    4) however, TDSR (for new properties) and ABSD are still in force. this means only the very rich or foreign buyers can participate in the short term
    5) given general increase in household income levels, OCR will still move upwards over the medium term due to pent-up demand. This will in turn provide a floor CCR and RCR prices. The ceiling will still depend on foreign buyers

    did i get you right, and are there additional points i didn't mention?

    thanks for your contributions and insights. they are a useful counterpoint to the prevailing views.

  4. #44
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    Mostly yes.

    Additionally, the restructuring of TDSR means that:

    1. Some owners (without or with very little income) who previously can only sell to raise liquidity now have the option to hold and raise liquidity - drop in resales supply, and potentially raise some demand.

    2. If they choose to buy again (unless in the name of relatives without ownership), they have to pay ABSD as well.

    3. If they don't have income, they can still buy again by paying off for a subsequent property in cash, CPF and loans hedged against existing assets, previously disallowed under TDSR.

    4. Increased foreigner purchases will occur for those who need a place in Singapore as a base, and since prices have already come off their heights and won't run away that fast, plus Govt hint as a result of the relaxation stance. This will coincide with local pent up demand, and all sectors will see increases in transactions.

    Resale prices appear to have been recovering for several months already. But what should move more currently should be transactions rather than prices. When supply dwindles as demand grows, prices will start to rise again, but the velocity will not be what we witnessed before TDSR in 2013.

    Thanks for reading.


    Quote Originally Posted by blah5 View Post
    can i rephrase/summarize your points by saying that:
    1) tdsr allows loan against income
    2) while current relaxation re-allows loan against asset value
    3) the general run-up since 2009, or even 2005-6 for earlier buyers (e.g. retirees who have an incentive to re-enter market for children/retirement asset's sake) means existing property owners have the home-equity base to re-participate in market
    4) however, TDSR (for new properties) and ABSD are still in force. this means only the very rich or foreign buyers can participate in the short term
    5) given general increase in household income levels, OCR will still move upwards over the medium term due to pent-up demand. This will in turn provide a floor CCR and RCR prices. The ceiling will still depend on foreign buyers

    did i get you right, and are there additional points i didn't mention?

    thanks for your contributions and insights. they are a useful counterpoint to the prevailing views.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  5. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Mostly yes.

    Additionally, the restructuring of TDSR means that:

    1. Some owners (without or with very little income) who previously can only sell to raise liquidity now have the option to hold and raise liquidity - drop in resales supply, and potentially raise some demand.

    2. If they choose to buy again (unless in the name of relatives without ownership), they have to pay ABSD as well.

    3. If they don't have income, they can still buy again by paying off for a subsequent property in cash, CPF and loans hedged against existing assets, previously disallowed under TDSR.

    4. Increased foreigner purchases will occur for those who need a place in Singapore as a base, and since prices have already come off their heights and won't run away that fast, plus Govt hint as a result of the relaxation stance. This will coincide with local pent up demand, and all sectors will see increases in transactions.

    Resale prices appear to have been recovering for several months already. But what should move more currently should be transactions rather than prices. When supply dwindles as demand grows, prices will start to rise again, but the velocity will not be what we witnessed before TDSR in 2013.

    Thanks for reading.
    given your points 1-3, OCR should benefit more than RCR and CCR?

    could you also share your opinions on:
    a) how will the iskandar projects and the high speed railway affect the own 1-rent 1 model here, especially for HDB and OCR properties?
    b) how will the redevelopment of the great southern waterfront area affect existing property prices?
    c) given that "the velocity will not be what we witnessed before TDSR in 2013", the Exec Condo initiative, the potential impact of iskandar & HSR, macro-economic black swans, adoption of new construction technologies/materials (i.e. big difference in condos being built now and just 10 years ago), does it still make sense to invest in OCR and even fringe RCR projects at current prices +/- 10%?

  6. #46

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    I think Southern waterfront may only take place much later (not sure) and by then, population increase will be able to absorb/digest the supply. If have money, just invest on the freehold CCR region. Will never go wrong.
    I am not a big fan of Iskandar, so not sure if this has an impact.

  7. #47
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    Not necessarily. Some of these properties that can be used for hedging are worth over 10 million...

    Btw, I am not a crystal ball. There is risk in all actions we undertake and we need to assess where and what and how and how much risk to go for... We need to understand what our game plan is, then you know which sector suits you more. I believe you are capable of assessing the impact of HSR (which employs huge numbers of people to man), redevelopment of Greater Southern Waterfront and how it changes the game for each district, and all other factors and risks.

    I have always been long term supportive of selected OCR regions near employment hubs as a caveat though due to many reasons.


    Quote Originally Posted by blah5 View Post
    given your points 1-3, OCR should benefit more than RCR and CCR?

    could you also share your opinions on:
    a) how will the iskandar projects and the high speed railway affect the own 1-rent 1 model here, especially for HDB and OCR properties?
    b) how will the redevelopment of the great southern waterfront area affect existing property prices?
    c) given that "the velocity will not be what we witnessed before TDSR in 2013", the Exec Condo initiative, the potential impact of iskandar & HSR, macro-economic black swans, adoption of new construction technologies/materials (i.e. big difference in condos being built now and just 10 years ago), does it still make sense to invest in OCR and even fringe RCR projects at current prices +/- 10%?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  8. #48

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    thanks stl67 and Kelonguni.

    Really appreciate the insights.

    big-ticket item, 1 foot wrong and it can be a mistake to pay for over a long time. given so many complexities, trying to reduce risk by getting more learned opinion.

  9. #49
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    Our pressure, pleasure I mean...

    All sectors are linked. When OCR benefits, some OCR owners may decide to "upgrade" to a more preferable location, supporting RCR and CCR.

    Also depends on your incomes, financial situations etc. No one rule fits all, but there is bound to be something in the market for all.

    Quote Originally Posted by blah5 View Post
    thanks stl67 and Kelonguni.

    Really appreciate the insights.

    big-ticket item, 1 foot wrong and it can be a mistake to pay for over a long time. given so many complexities, trying to reduce risk by getting more learned opinion.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  10. #50

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Our pressure, pleasure I mean...

    All sectors are linked. When OCR benefits, some OCR owners may decide to "upgrade" to a more preferable location, supporting RCR and CCR.

    Also depends on your incomes, financial situations etc. No one rule fits all, but there is bound to be something in the market for all.
    no pressure if you're not profiting, merely sharing!

    even if the outcome is not what's predicted, the premises and views shared during the discussion can be valuable.

    yes, the options are wide-open especially because incomes and financial situations can change in a few years. with that, "the best" objective/strategy of buying for yield, short term or long term capital appreciation can change too.

    then there's the changing external paradigm, which is challenge even for the experienced...which is where a good discussion really helps.

  11. #51
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    Yes, I was in your shoes not so long ago.

    Luckily have always been reflecting about my parents' choices since young, and matching their outcomes against others.

    Till today, I am still keeping track of my decision-making processes and emotions so that I can learn from them, pass it on, and pass the lessons to my children in the future.

    Quote Originally Posted by blah5 View Post
    no pressure if you're not profiting, merely sharing!

    even if the outcome is not what's predicted, the premises and views shared during the discussion can be valuable.

    yes, the options are wide-open especially because incomes and financial situations can change in a few years. with that, "the best" objective/strategy of buying for yield, short term or long term capital appreciation can change too.

    then there's the changing external paradigm, which is challenge even for the experienced...which is where a good discussion really helps.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  12. #52

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    HDB is 100% for Singaporeans and PRs and those in future are willing to be called Singaporeans.

    Land is also 100% for Singaporeans / PRs?

    Private strata is supposed to be maybe about 50-75% for Singaporeans / PRs and the remaining % are for foreigners. Same principle for most other countries, no reason to expect or arrange otherwise.

    Those who think the prices will drop to allow all Singaporeans who want to buy to get what they want will have a lot of disappointments in the roads ahead...

    Transactions will spike in 2017 - hope fellow Singaporeans can still get what they are looking for.
    we shall see if transactions will spike in 2017!

  13. #53
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    Property stocks up is a forward indicator that property price is on it's way up.

  14. #54

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Yes, I was in your shoes not so long ago.

    Luckily have always been reflecting about my parents' choices since young, and matching their outcomes against others.

    Till today, I am still keeping track of my decision-making processes and emotions so that I can learn from them, pass it on, and pass the lessons to my children in the future.
    Lol. It's only after I've worked for a while and started my own family that I did the same - thought about parental choices, and wonder about the what ifs.

    Volume already turning up. Clement Canopy, Grandeur park trend should be confirmed by park place resi. Add to these the earlier signs - forest woods, north park and high park.

    And then there are developers who have to sell, due to absd rebate and qc deadlines. Some high end condos also coming to market.

    Think kelonguni is right.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by star View Post
    Property stocks up is a forward indicator that property price is on it's way up.
    Even transaction volume increase is positive for property stocks. Not necessarily price increase, even though I strongly believe a turn is just around the corner.

    Several other articles emerged recently regarding foreign buyers.

    It is a speculation not a fact. Even foreigners coming in is also a speculation. Await official stats.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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