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Thread: Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley

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    Default Know your Timeline.




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    in the last 20 years, Singapore property price is driven by immigration and near double digit economic growth. Plus relatively small HDB & private housing stock.
    Moving forward, I don't see the same drivers. With advent of technology, we are doing more with less. Especially less manpower. The banks are hiring less. The new bank tech jobs will be less than the investment banking jobs they replace, for example. Same for manufacturing jobs.
    So does improving the infrastructure dictate that property prices must increase. Regardless if the country can continue to attract enough talent to support an ageing population?
    Or is it a case of we just have to open the gate, and there will be a line forming to come in? (Meaning we have such a high number of good paying jobs but no takers now because we are strict with EP & S pass?)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Khng8 View Post
    in the last 20 years, Singapore property price is driven by immigration and near double digit economic growth. Plus relatively small HDB & private housing stock.
    Moving forward, I don't see the same drivers. With advent of technology, we are doing more with less. Especially less manpower. The banks are hiring less. The new bank tech jobs will be less than the investment banking jobs they replace, for example. Same for manufacturing jobs.
    So does improving the infrastructure dictate that property prices must increase. Regardless if the country can continue to attract enough talent to support an ageing population?
    Or is it a case of we just have to open the gate, and there will be a line forming to come in? (Meaning we have such a high number of good paying jobs but no takers now because we are strict with EP & S pass?)
    Agree, you might have miss this.



    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sing...oney-supply-m3

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    What this means is that there are more S$ moving around and increases much more than GDP in past few years, and hence by right S$ exchange rate should drop, and it is not dropping because of artificial support, and this cannot go on forever.............

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    What this means is that there are more S$ moving around and increases much more than GDP in past few years, and hence by right S$ exchange rate should drop, and it is not dropping because of artificial support, and this cannot go on forever.............
    I think you miss this.



    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...oney-supply-m2

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    Well I didn't, the fact that S$ money supply is increasing as much as US$, won't S$ exchange rate remain CONSTANT to US$ instead of strengthening from 1.7x to 1.3x?

    And you forgot that US doesn't not manipulate and control US$ Exchange Rate, only Singapore controls S$ exchange rate.
    So S$ at 1.3x to US$ is not genuine market rate, but controlled rate, and nobody can control their exchange rate forever! Don't believe? You wait and see........

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Well I didn't, the fact that S$ money supply is increasing as much as US$, won't S$ exchange rate remain CONSTANT to US$ instead of strengthening from 1.7x to 1.3x?

    And you forgot that US doesn't not manipulate and control US$ Exchange Rate, only Singapore controls S$ exchange rate.
    So S$ at 1.3x to US$ is not genuine market rate, but controlled rate, and nobody can control their exchange rate forever! Don't believe? You wait and see........
    I think you also forget what did US do to the printed Money and what did Singapore do to their printed money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner View Post
    so long as the 99LH condo is not one of those from Far east FH turned 103yr LH condos... should have chance to be enbloc ... assuming mkt conditions are good.
    Maybe FE could also do enbloc to get some quick money before the 99Yr expiry?

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    Money printed is printed, increases money supply.

    As to what they do with the money, if they use it properly, it should increase their GDP and make their people richer. So let's see who use their printed money to better use to benefit their citizens or not...........

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    I think you also forget what did US do to the printed Money and what did Singapore do to their printed money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ccreporter View Post
    Maybe FE could also do enbloc to get some quick money before the 99Yr expiry?
    If you are a developer, would you even consider enblocking a 99 LH project built by FE? when the actual land lease is FH?

    As for FE, those 103yr LH project, No need to enbloc ... let it ROT. By the 103th yr, the land comes back to their family.

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    The best question asked of the day.

    It is relevant to why MND arranges for some (but not all) flats to go for SERS.

    I feel developers MIGHT do it only if the plot ratio increases by leaps and bounds such that it is highly profitable to do so and reap more immediate gains. Especially if land parcels from GLS runs out.

    But the negotiation won't be easy for the "owners".

    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner View Post
    If you are a developer, would you even consider enblocking a 99 LH project built by FE? when the actual land lease is FH?

    As for FE, those 103yr LH project, No need to enbloc ... let it ROT. By the 103th yr, the land comes back to their family.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    The best question asked of the day.

    It is relevant to why MND arranges for some (but not all) flats to go for SERS.

    I feel developers MIGHT do it only if the plot ratio increases by leaps and bounds such that it is highly profitable to do so and reap more immediate gains. Especially if land parcels from GLS runs out.

    But the negotiation won't be easy for the "owners".
    Or just become another Geylang Lor 3.

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    Hi Guys

    Imho I feel we should not discount the writer assumptions, if he works for MS and make statement like this without much thought, don't you think he will be ridicule by his bosses and I am sure these reports get vetted before they are published..

    One key point we need to remember is inflation. Simple back of envelope calculation

    Prices dropped 12%

    Inflation from 2013 to 2017 assume average 2%+ per year will total about 10%. So actually prices have dropped about 22%. If prices just increase 3% per year it will just be tracking inflation, technically affordability will not be any different from today. 3% x 13 years plus compounding will be close to 50% already without factoring any actual real increase.

    Then there is comparison to other global cities, while we drop 12%, others have increase 25% in the last few years, so the difference is between us and them is about 35 to 40% now.

    If the government feel that prices have not dropped enough why not tighten the market further rather than ease the market with the SSD and TDSR refinancing rules?

    And remember the government target of 6.9m. No matter what the government says, it WILL happen. If it doesn't then why prepare Tengah, Paya Lebar, southern district for future growth? Who are going to populate these areas? Who is going to work in T5, jewel at Changi, Woodlands, Jurong regional Centres, etc.

    The government is facing a v difficult choice, all other gateway cities prices are increasing, how much can they cap the property market? It has to track the growth of the other cities, we can be LV selling at Charles and Keith prices, sooner or later prices has to catch up...

    On a separate topic, why do people buy new LH properties when there are older FH properties that are selling at lower prices in the same vicinity? I understand people like new and the herd mentality of all buying under marketing influence at show flats. look at seaside residences, I am sure there are many FH condo selling at much cheaper psf prices? Same for Paya Lebar Quarters area, Cairnhill nine etc

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    With regards to why buy LH when FH in vicinity is selling at same price - my take is that besides newness, quantum also play a part. New units are minted to meet some pricing target & with TDSR in mind.

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    Newer units easier to "FLIP"............ Ha ha ha!

    As I said before, people who buy LH property (rather than older FH property) will always buy relatively new so that it will be easier to flip before the property is 20 years old and valuation and number of buyers start to drop significantly due to reducing lease....

    However, this kind of game will always keep changing and people will keep wising up and soon we will be seeing people only flipping <15 years old LH properties and then <10 years old LH properties......... They are basically playing the game of "Stop The Music And Find A Seat" and when the music stop many may find themselves without "seat" (NO buyers)........

    Quote Originally Posted by Khng8 View Post
    With regards to why buy LH when FH in vicinity is selling at same price - my take is that besides newness, quantum also play a part. New units are minted to meet some pricing target & with TDSR in mind.
    Quote Originally Posted by CCR View Post
    Hi Guys

    Imho I feel we should not discount the writer assumptions, if he works for MS and make statement like this without much thought, don't you think he will be ridicule by his bosses and I am sure these reports get vetted before they are published..

    One key point we need to remember is inflation. Simple back of envelope calculation

    Prices dropped 12%

    Inflation from 2013 to 2017 assume average 2%+ per year will total about 10%. So actually prices have dropped about 22%. If prices just increase 3% per year it will just be tracking inflation, technically affordability will not be any different from today. 3% x 13 years plus compounding will be close to 50% already without factoring any actual real increase.

    Then there is comparison to other global cities, while we drop 12%, others have increase 25% in the last few years, so the difference is between us and them is about 35 to 40% now.

    If the government feel that prices have not dropped enough why not tighten the market further rather than ease the market with the SSD and TDSR refinancing rules?

    And remember the government target of 6.9m. No matter what the government says, it WILL happen. If it doesn't then why prepare Tengah, Paya Lebar, southern district for future growth? Who are going to populate these areas? Who is going to work in T5, jewel at Changi, Woodlands, Jurong regional Centres, etc.

    The government is facing a v difficult choice, all other gateway cities prices are increasing, how much can they cap the property market? It has to track the growth of the other cities, we can be LV selling at Charles and Keith prices, sooner or later prices has to catch up...

    On a separate topic, why do people buy new LH properties when there are older FH properties that are selling at lower prices in the same vicinity? I understand people like new and the herd mentality of all buying under marketing influence at show flats. look at seaside residences, I am sure there are many FH condo selling at much cheaper psf prices? Same for Paya Lebar Quarters area, Cairnhill nine etc
    Last edited by teddybear; 17-04-17 at 09:04.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Newer units easier to "FLIP"............ Ha ha ha!

    As I said before, people who buy LH property (rather than older FH property) will always buy relatively new so that it will be easier to flip before the property is 20 years old and valuation and number of buyers start to drop significantly due to reducing lease....

    However, this kind of game will always keep changing and people will keep wising up and soon we will be seeing people only flipping <15 years old LH properties and then <10 years old LH properties......... They are basically playing the game of "Stop The Music And Find A Seat" and when the music stop many may find themselves without "seat" (NO buyers)........
    This is how I look at New Launch and a TOP condo in 2011 before I decided to buy Terrasse.

    If I buy the 2 Bedroom at Bencoolen at 1,180,000 my monthly installment is 4164.08 for 28 years at a rate of 1.25.

    If I can't rent out above 4164.08 I have to top up the different every month or worst case the whole amount.

    Bencoolen has used up 13 years if rent out for 13 years at 4,000 mean a loss of income for 624,000.


    Next, I go for Southbank for 1,330,000 my monthly installment is 4693.41 for 28 years at a rate of 1.25.

    If I can't rent out above 4693.41 I have to top up the different every month or worst case the whole amount.

    Then I go for Southbank for 1,000,000 my monthly installment is 3528.88 for 28 years at a rate of 1.25. tenanted for 3,500.

    I can still manage if the unit is not tenanted.

    Then I saw Terrasse by MCL selling 4 Bedroom for 1,200,000 that make me think of getting an uncompleted unit instead. This way I can pay the 40% and the rest progressive.

    I have passed by the place and find the place not bad, it is near the French international school and the nearby the NEX shopping center.

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    Post 2013, I have not really given thought that our government will ever completely remove any CMs but play with tweaks as they see fit. All my current properties are bought during CMs and I am sure some prominent investor bloggers and forum members will say its a bad time to invest. Why give money away to the government?

    I have also thought about developers IF without the cooling measures would have jacked up their prices as they please and continue to grow this price bubble. Which is better to 'give' money to? I rather give it to the government who will rejuvenate our landscape, plan for land use, improve lives and continue to exercise due caution with any overheating. I hope China property will not blow up because the next 'sub prime crisis' might just happen there.

    Back to 2030 price doubling ....

    The CMs will cap this growth. Why? CMs are measured largely against inflation, GDP growth, land supply/demand, population growth, interest rates, monetary policies etc. I would caution latching on to media releases such as these without understanding these macro fundamentals. I view this 82% growth in sales for March 2017 is the coincidental launch of a few notable projects for Q1. Good location, smaller quantum or mixed development. Like the article published by MS, this article should also not brew over optimism of the current market which is still fundamentally weak.

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...html?cid=fbcna

    2 cents,
    PropVestor

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    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Post 2013, I have not really given thought that our government will ever completely remove any CMs but play with tweaks as they see fit. All my current properties are bought during CMs and I am sure some prominent investor bloggers and forum members will say its a bad time to invest. Why give money away to the government?

    I have also thought about developers IF without the cooling measures would have jacked up their prices as they please and continue to grow this price bubble. Which is better to 'give' money to? I rather give it to the government who will rejuvenate our landscape, plan for land use, improve lives and continue to exercise due caution with any overheating. I hope China property will not blow up because the next 'sub prime crisis' might just happen there.
    After 2008 the World know you can get out of 'sub prime' by printing more money and buy the toxic note and keep it in the Central Bank.

    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Back to 2030 price doubling ....

    The CMs will cap this growth. Why? CMs are measured largely against inflation, GDP growth, land supply/demand, population growth, interest rates, monetary policies etc. I would caution latching on to media releases such as these without understanding these macro fundamentals. I view this 82% growth in sales for March 2017 is the coincidental launch of a few notable projects for Q1. Good location, mixed development. Like the article published by MS, this article should also not brew overoptimism of the current market which is still fundamentally weak.

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...html?cid=fbcna

    2 cents,
    PropVestor
    It is like building a Water Dam, you can hold the water from flowing down the river up to a limit.

    The limit have reach that is why they need to release.

    Last edited by Arcachon; 17-04-17 at 14:57.

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    Thumbs up

    Agree with you. I made my purchase during cm too.
    Price might rebound if cm is removed.
    And how many 10 years do we have....



    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Post 2013, I have not really given thought that our government will ever completely remove any CMs but play with tweaks as they see fit. All my current properties are bought during CMs and I am sure some prominent investor bloggers and forum members will say its a bad time to invest. Why give money away to the government?

    I have also thought about developers IF without the cooling measures would have jacked up their prices as they please and continue to grow this price bubble. Which is better to 'give' money to? I rather give it to the government who will rejuvenate our landscape, plan for land use, improve lives and continue to exercise due caution with any overheating. I hope China property will not blow up because the next 'sub prime crisis' might just happen there.

    Back to 2030 price doubling ....

    The CMs will cap this growth. Why? CMs are measured largely against inflation, GDP growth, land supply/demand, population growth, interest rates, monetary policies etc. I would caution latching on to media releases such as these without understanding these macro fundamentals. I view this 82% growth in sales for March 2017 is the coincidental launch of a few notable projects for Q1. Good location, smaller quantum or mixed development. Like the article published by MS, this article should also not brew over optimism of the current market which is still fundamentally weak.

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...html?cid=fbcna

    2 cents,
    PropVestor

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    Managed to siam all the CM so far with careful planning. But going forward cannot siam ABSD anymore.

    I like your stance!

    Quote Originally Posted by ccreporter View Post
    Agree with you. I made my purchase during cm too.
    Price might rebound if cm is removed.
    And how many 10 years do we have....
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley

    Friday, April 14, 2017

    by Lynette Khoo
    [email protected]
    @LynetteKhooBT


    SINGAPORE'S property prices are expected to turn the corner next year, ending a protracted downtrend since late 2013, and to double by 2030, Morgan Stanley says in a note.

    This is based on its forecast that home prices will rise by 5 per cent each year on a per square foot (psf) basis from 2018 to 2030.

    The bullish report issued by the bank on Wednesday dismisses concerns raised by property market bears who flagged slower population growth, an ageing population and a structural growth slowdown as weighing on the long-term property market outlook.

    "We disagree, and in fact, we expect home prices to double by 2030," five Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the report.

    But they noted that with developers likely to continue "right-sizing" units, an estimated one per cent decline in average home size in square feet each year will translate to an average 4 per cent annual growth in prices per unit, hence keeping pace with the anticipated income growth of 4 per cent.

    The report suggests that in the long run, it is household formation rate, not population growth, that one should consider - and that figure has been rising.

    "We expect a rising household formation rate, driven by singles, and shifting profile of foreign labour towards higher skilled workers to offset the slower headline population growth," the Morgan Stanley analysts said.

    Resident household growth has picked up since 2013, driven by an increasing number of single households. Given rising singlehood here, Morgan Stanley estimates that one in five Singapore resident households will be occupied by just one person by 2030, from one in eight households in 2010.

    Secondly, even though Singapore's annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to average 3 per cent from 2016 to 2030, it will still be higher than many advanced economies.

    The International Monetary Fund expects average annual GDP growth in advanced economies to be 1.7 per cent between 2016 and 2021, while the OECD's estimate of the long-term average potential output for OECD members (which include emerging market economies such as Mexico, Chile and Turkey) stands at about 2.3 per cent per annum between 2016 and 2030.

    The outlook for Singapore's economy has brightened lately on the back of export-led growth in the resurgent manufacturing sector. But on Thursday, Singapore's flash estimate showed a slightly lower-than-expected GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2017 from a year earlier, easing from the 2.9 per cent growth in the previous quarter.

    Morgan Stanley notes that Singapore remains a globally relevant city that attracts foreign capital and talent. It believes any supply- demand mismatch in the property market is less likely to persist because the massive state-owned land bank and the dominance of public housing provide much flexibility to tweak supply.

    Bequest motives, lease buyback schemes and shifting manpower trends will also help assuage property market selling pressures that come as the population ages, it says.

    Property prices surged more than 60 per cent from 2009 through 2013, fuelled by rock-bottom global interest rates even as the Singapore government rolled out a series of cooling measures since late 2009 to prevent a bubble from forming. But prices have fallen by only 11.3 per cent as at end-2016 from the peak in Q3 2013. From 1975 to 2016, home prices rose at a rate of 7 per cent per annum.

    Indicators of supply-demand dynamics have already improved significantly - residential supply has peaked, demand is now surprising on the upside, and developers' unsold inventory is at an all-time low.

    "The recent easing of property curbs suggests that we are closer to the bottom, which will improve buyer sentiment," Morgan Stanley analysts said, referring to the measures taken in early March to lower the seller's stamp duty and shorten the minimum holding period from four years to three years.

    In the near term, Singapore's improving macroeconomic outlook and an expected surge in sales volume this year will set the stage for a price recovery next year and developer stocks to rerate over the next 12 months, the report posits.

    Morgan Stanley has raised its price targets for Singapore-listed developers by 17 per cent on average, which reflect a tightening of discounts to revalued net asset value from 39 per cent to 28 per cent. Its top picks are CapitaLand, City Developments and UOL Group.


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    Thousands of potential buyers holding their urge since 2013-2016, knowing gov not going to relax CM they cant hold any longer, thus the explosion on 17.

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    After 2008 the World know you can get out of 'sub prime' by printing more money and buy the toxic note and keep it in the Central Bank.

    It is like building a Water Dam, you can hold the water from flowing down the river up to a limit.

    The limit have reach that is why they need to release.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomutomi View Post
    Thousands of potential buyers holding their urge since 2013-2016, knowing gov not going to relax CM they cant hold any longer, thus the explosion on 17.
    There are a few factor in play here.

    1. After 3 years Income has increased.
    2. The developer gives Discount.
    3. The developer gives high commission to Agent.
    4. Recent Land sale went up.
    5. Developer buying en-bloc property (HUDC)
    6. The interest rate is still low.
    7. Government reduce SSD and remove TDSR for those with a property signal Bottom already reach.

    Last but the not the least important, how many 10 years do one have.

    Anyone looking at this chart still cannot see, guess no one can help.


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    That waiting is unbearable because only invest in property, only in SG somemore. Such a limited option.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomutomi View Post
    That waiting is unbearable because only invest in property, only in SG somemore. Such a limited option.
    After all the type of so call investment turn bad, the option is very limited.

    Our most trusted Bank also into the so call investment.

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    Developers have been asking for CM relaxation since 2015 but gov never budged.

    SG is very pro business. In closing the recent tax loophole it may sound like punishing the developer, so gov intro a little sweetener to prop up the market sentiment. Just a guess though.



    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    There are a few factor in play here
    7. Government reduce SSD and remove TDSR for those with a property signal Bottom already reach.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomutomi View Post
    Developers have been asking for CM relaxation since 2015 but gov never budged.

    SG is very pro business. In closing the recent tax loophole it may sound like punishing the developer, so gov intro a little sweetener to prop up the market sentiment. Just a guess though.
    There was never a loophole when QC was created.

    http://dollarsandsense.sg/how-proper...-unsold-units/

    The Red Line was cross by the Wee.

    http://www.drea.com.sg/media-and-inv...he-wee-family/

    If they don't do anything the market will not go according to their wish.

    https://www.google.co.in/#q=Developer+ABSD+QC

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    Quote Originally Posted by Khng8 View Post
    With regards to why buy LH when FH in vicinity is selling at same price - my take is that besides newness, quantum also play a part. New units are minted to meet some pricing target & with TDSR in mind.

    Banks work with developers at new launches.

    Assuming Seaside going at 1600 psf... yet a nearby FH going at 1200 psf ... and banks wont even give it a good / proper valuation..

    without a HIGHER valuation... buyers have to fork out more cash... compared to new launches ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    There are a few factor in play here.

    1. After 3 years Income has increased.
    2. The developer gives Discount.
    3. The developer gives high commission to Agent.
    4. Recent Land sale went up.
    5. Developer buying en-bloc property (HUDC)
    6. The interest rate is still low.
    7. Government reduce SSD and remove TDSR for those with a property signal Bottom already reach.

    Last but the not the least important, how many 10 years do one have.

    Anyone looking at this chart still cannot see, guess no one can help.


    Point 3 not correct....

    i believe agents get 1pct for resale...some 1.5 even 2pct.

    New launches, agents get 0.5 to 0.7 pct ... even lower...

    Only developers who have unsold units and the development reaching the 5yr mark...then they give much higher comm to push sales to avoid the penalty.

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