Page 4 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 61 to 80 of 100

Thread: Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley

  1. #61

    Default


  2. #62

    Default Know your Timeline.




  3. #63

    Default

    in the last 20 years, Singapore property price is driven by immigration and near double digit economic growth. Plus relatively small HDB & private housing stock.
    Moving forward, I don't see the same drivers. With advent of technology, we are doing more with less. Especially less manpower. The banks are hiring less. The new bank tech jobs will be less than the investment banking jobs they replace, for example. Same for manufacturing jobs.
    So does improving the infrastructure dictate that property prices must increase. Regardless if the country can continue to attract enough talent to support an ageing population?
    Or is it a case of we just have to open the gate, and there will be a line forming to come in? (Meaning we have such a high number of good paying jobs but no takers now because we are strict with EP & S pass?)

  4. #64

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Khng8 View Post
    in the last 20 years, Singapore property price is driven by immigration and near double digit economic growth. Plus relatively small HDB & private housing stock.
    Moving forward, I don't see the same drivers. With advent of technology, we are doing more with less. Especially less manpower. The banks are hiring less. The new bank tech jobs will be less than the investment banking jobs they replace, for example. Same for manufacturing jobs.
    So does improving the infrastructure dictate that property prices must increase. Regardless if the country can continue to attract enough talent to support an ageing population?
    Or is it a case of we just have to open the gate, and there will be a line forming to come in? (Meaning we have such a high number of good paying jobs but no takers now because we are strict with EP & S pass?)
    Agree, you might have miss this.



    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sing...oney-supply-m3

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,738

    Default

    What this means is that there are more S$ moving around and increases much more than GDP in past few years, and hence by right S$ exchange rate should drop, and it is not dropping because of artificial support, and this cannot go on forever.............

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post

  6. #66

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    What this means is that there are more S$ moving around and increases much more than GDP in past few years, and hence by right S$ exchange rate should drop, and it is not dropping because of artificial support, and this cannot go on forever.............
    I think you miss this.



    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...oney-supply-m2

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,738

    Default

    Well I didn't, the fact that S$ money supply is increasing as much as US$, won't S$ exchange rate remain CONSTANT to US$ instead of strengthening from 1.7x to 1.3x?

    And you forgot that US doesn't not manipulate and control US$ Exchange Rate, only Singapore controls S$ exchange rate.
    So S$ at 1.3x to US$ is not genuine market rate, but controlled rate, and nobody can control their exchange rate forever! Don't believe? You wait and see........

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post

  8. #68

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Well I didn't, the fact that S$ money supply is increasing as much as US$, won't S$ exchange rate remain CONSTANT to US$ instead of strengthening from 1.7x to 1.3x?

    And you forgot that US doesn't not manipulate and control US$ Exchange Rate, only Singapore controls S$ exchange rate.
    So S$ at 1.3x to US$ is not genuine market rate, but controlled rate, and nobody can control their exchange rate forever! Don't believe? You wait and see........
    I think you also forget what did US do to the printed Money and what did Singapore do to their printed money.

  9. #69

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner View Post
    so long as the 99LH condo is not one of those from Far east FH turned 103yr LH condos... should have chance to be enbloc ... assuming mkt conditions are good.
    Maybe FE could also do enbloc to get some quick money before the 99Yr expiry?

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,738

    Default

    Money printed is printed, increases money supply.

    As to what they do with the money, if they use it properly, it should increase their GDP and make their people richer. So let's see who use their printed money to better use to benefit their citizens or not...........

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    I think you also forget what did US do to the printed Money and what did Singapore do to their printed money.

  11. #71

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ccreporter View Post
    Maybe FE could also do enbloc to get some quick money before the 99Yr expiry?
    If you are a developer, would you even consider enblocking a 99 LH project built by FE? when the actual land lease is FH?

    As for FE, those 103yr LH project, No need to enbloc ... let it ROT. By the 103th yr, the land comes back to their family.

  12. #72
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    3,749

    Default

    The best question asked of the day.

    It is relevant to why MND arranges for some (but not all) flats to go for SERS.

    I feel developers MIGHT do it only if the plot ratio increases by leaps and bounds such that it is highly profitable to do so and reap more immediate gains. Especially if land parcels from GLS runs out.

    But the negotiation won't be easy for the "owners".

    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner View Post
    If you are a developer, would you even consider enblocking a 99 LH project built by FE? when the actual land lease is FH?

    As for FE, those 103yr LH project, No need to enbloc ... let it ROT. By the 103th yr, the land comes back to their family.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  13. #73

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    The best question asked of the day.

    It is relevant to why MND arranges for some (but not all) flats to go for SERS.

    I feel developers MIGHT do it only if the plot ratio increases by leaps and bounds such that it is highly profitable to do so and reap more immediate gains. Especially if land parcels from GLS runs out.

    But the negotiation won't be easy for the "owners".
    Or just become another Geylang Lor 3.

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,614

    Default

    Hi Guys

    Imho I feel we should not discount the writer assumptions, if he works for MS and make statement like this without much thought, don't you think he will be ridicule by his bosses and I am sure these reports get vetted before they are published..

    One key point we need to remember is inflation. Simple back of envelope calculation

    Prices dropped 12%

    Inflation from 2013 to 2017 assume average 2%+ per year will total about 10%. So actually prices have dropped about 22%. If prices just increase 3% per year it will just be tracking inflation, technically affordability will not be any different from today. 3% x 13 years plus compounding will be close to 50% already without factoring any actual real increase.

    Then there is comparison to other global cities, while we drop 12%, others have increase 25% in the last few years, so the difference is between us and them is about 35 to 40% now.

    If the government feel that prices have not dropped enough why not tighten the market further rather than ease the market with the SSD and TDSR refinancing rules?

    And remember the government target of 6.9m. No matter what the government says, it WILL happen. If it doesn't then why prepare Tengah, Paya Lebar, southern district for future growth? Who are going to populate these areas? Who is going to work in T5, jewel at Changi, Woodlands, Jurong regional Centres, etc.

    The government is facing a v difficult choice, all other gateway cities prices are increasing, how much can they cap the property market? It has to track the growth of the other cities, we can be LV selling at Charles and Keith prices, sooner or later prices has to catch up...

    On a separate topic, why do people buy new LH properties when there are older FH properties that are selling at lower prices in the same vicinity? I understand people like new and the herd mentality of all buying under marketing influence at show flats. look at seaside residences, I am sure there are many FH condo selling at much cheaper psf prices? Same for Paya Lebar Quarters area, Cairnhill nine etc

  15. #75

    Default

    With regards to why buy LH when FH in vicinity is selling at same price - my take is that besides newness, quantum also play a part. New units are minted to meet some pricing target & with TDSR in mind.

  16. #76
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,738

    Default

    Newer units easier to "FLIP"............ Ha ha ha!

    As I said before, people who buy LH property (rather than older FH property) will always buy relatively new so that it will be easier to flip before the property is 20 years old and valuation and number of buyers start to drop significantly due to reducing lease....

    However, this kind of game will always keep changing and people will keep wising up and soon we will be seeing people only flipping <15 years old LH properties and then <10 years old LH properties......... They are basically playing the game of "Stop The Music And Find A Seat" and when the music stop many may find themselves without "seat" (NO buyers)........

    Quote Originally Posted by Khng8 View Post
    With regards to why buy LH when FH in vicinity is selling at same price - my take is that besides newness, quantum also play a part. New units are minted to meet some pricing target & with TDSR in mind.
    Quote Originally Posted by CCR View Post
    Hi Guys

    Imho I feel we should not discount the writer assumptions, if he works for MS and make statement like this without much thought, don't you think he will be ridicule by his bosses and I am sure these reports get vetted before they are published..

    One key point we need to remember is inflation. Simple back of envelope calculation

    Prices dropped 12%

    Inflation from 2013 to 2017 assume average 2%+ per year will total about 10%. So actually prices have dropped about 22%. If prices just increase 3% per year it will just be tracking inflation, technically affordability will not be any different from today. 3% x 13 years plus compounding will be close to 50% already without factoring any actual real increase.

    Then there is comparison to other global cities, while we drop 12%, others have increase 25% in the last few years, so the difference is between us and them is about 35 to 40% now.

    If the government feel that prices have not dropped enough why not tighten the market further rather than ease the market with the SSD and TDSR refinancing rules?

    And remember the government target of 6.9m. No matter what the government says, it WILL happen. If it doesn't then why prepare Tengah, Paya Lebar, southern district for future growth? Who are going to populate these areas? Who is going to work in T5, jewel at Changi, Woodlands, Jurong regional Centres, etc.

    The government is facing a v difficult choice, all other gateway cities prices are increasing, how much can they cap the property market? It has to track the growth of the other cities, we can be LV selling at Charles and Keith prices, sooner or later prices has to catch up...

    On a separate topic, why do people buy new LH properties when there are older FH properties that are selling at lower prices in the same vicinity? I understand people like new and the herd mentality of all buying under marketing influence at show flats. look at seaside residences, I am sure there are many FH condo selling at much cheaper psf prices? Same for Paya Lebar Quarters area, Cairnhill nine etc
    Last edited by teddybear; 17th April 2017 at 10:04 AM.

  17. #77

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Newer units easier to "FLIP"............ Ha ha ha!

    As I said before, people who buy LH property (rather than older FH property) will always buy relatively new so that it will be easier to flip before the property is 20 years old and valuation and number of buyers start to drop significantly due to reducing lease....

    However, this kind of game will always keep changing and people will keep wising up and soon we will be seeing people only flipping <15 years old LH properties and then <10 years old LH properties......... They are basically playing the game of "Stop The Music And Find A Seat" and when the music stop many may find themselves without "seat" (NO buyers)........
    This is how I look at New Launch and a TOP condo in 2011 before I decided to buy Terrasse.

    If I buy the 2 Bedroom at Bencoolen at 1,180,000 my monthly installment is 4164.08 for 28 years at a rate of 1.25.

    If I can't rent out above 4164.08 I have to top up the different every month or worst case the whole amount.

    Bencoolen has used up 13 years if rent out for 13 years at 4,000 mean a loss of income for 624,000.


    Next, I go for Southbank for 1,330,000 my monthly installment is 4693.41 for 28 years at a rate of 1.25.

    If I can't rent out above 4693.41 I have to top up the different every month or worst case the whole amount.

    Then I go for Southbank for 1,000,000 my monthly installment is 3528.88 for 28 years at a rate of 1.25. tenanted for 3,500.

    I can still manage if the unit is not tenanted.

    Then I saw Terrasse by MCL selling 4 Bedroom for 1,200,000 that make me think of getting an uncompleted unit instead. This way I can pay the 40% and the rest progressive.

    I have passed by the place and find the place not bad, it is near the French international school and the nearby the NEX shopping center.

  18. #78
    Join Date
    Nov 2015
    Location
    Duo Residences
    Posts
    291

    Default

    Post 2013, I have not really given thought that our government will ever completely remove any CMs but play with tweaks as they see fit. All my current properties are bought during CMs and I am sure some prominent investor bloggers and forum members will say its a bad time to invest. Why give money away to the government?

    I have also thought about developers IF without the cooling measures would have jacked up their prices as they please and continue to grow this price bubble. Which is better to 'give' money to? I rather give it to the government who will rejuvenate our landscape, plan for land use, improve lives and continue to exercise due caution with any overheating. I hope China property will not blow up because the next 'sub prime crisis' might just happen there.

    Back to 2030 price doubling ....

    The CMs will cap this growth. Why? CMs are measured largely against inflation, GDP growth, land supply/demand, population growth, interest rates, monetary policies etc. I would caution latching on to media releases such as these without understanding these macro fundamentals. I view this 82% growth in sales for March 2017 is the coincidental launch of a few notable projects for Q1. Good location, smaller quantum or mixed development. Like the article published by MS, this article should also not brew over optimism of the current market which is still fundamentally weak.

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...html?cid=fbcna

    2 cents,
    PropVestor

  19. #79

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Post 2013, I have not really given thought that our government will ever completely remove any CMs but play with tweaks as they see fit. All my current properties are bought during CMs and I am sure some prominent investor bloggers and forum members will say its a bad time to invest. Why give money away to the government?

    I have also thought about developers IF without the cooling measures would have jacked up their prices as they please and continue to grow this price bubble. Which is better to 'give' money to? I rather give it to the government who will rejuvenate our landscape, plan for land use, improve lives and continue to exercise due caution with any overheating. I hope China property will not blow up because the next 'sub prime crisis' might just happen there.
    After 2008 the World know you can get out of 'sub prime' by printing more money and buy the toxic note and keep it in the Central Bank.

    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Back to 2030 price doubling ....

    The CMs will cap this growth. Why? CMs are measured largely against inflation, GDP growth, land supply/demand, population growth, interest rates, monetary policies etc. I would caution latching on to media releases such as these without understanding these macro fundamentals. I view this 82% growth in sales for March 2017 is the coincidental launch of a few notable projects for Q1. Good location, mixed development. Like the article published by MS, this article should also not brew overoptimism of the current market which is still fundamentally weak.

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...html?cid=fbcna

    2 cents,
    PropVestor
    It is like building a Water Dam, you can hold the water from flowing down the river up to a limit.

    The limit have reach that is why they need to release.

    Last edited by Arcachon; 17th April 2017 at 03:57 PM.

  20. #80

    Thumbs up

    Agree with you. I made my purchase during cm too.
    Price might rebound if cm is removed.
    And how many 10 years do we have....



    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Post 2013, I have not really given thought that our government will ever completely remove any CMs but play with tweaks as they see fit. All my current properties are bought during CMs and I am sure some prominent investor bloggers and forum members will say its a bad time to invest. Why give money away to the government?

    I have also thought about developers IF without the cooling measures would have jacked up their prices as they please and continue to grow this price bubble. Which is better to 'give' money to? I rather give it to the government who will rejuvenate our landscape, plan for land use, improve lives and continue to exercise due caution with any overheating. I hope China property will not blow up because the next 'sub prime crisis' might just happen there.

    Back to 2030 price doubling ....

    The CMs will cap this growth. Why? CMs are measured largely against inflation, GDP growth, land supply/demand, population growth, interest rates, monetary policies etc. I would caution latching on to media releases such as these without understanding these macro fundamentals. I view this 82% growth in sales for March 2017 is the coincidental launch of a few notable projects for Q1. Good location, smaller quantum or mixed development. Like the article published by MS, this article should also not brew over optimism of the current market which is still fundamentally weak.

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...html?cid=fbcna

    2 cents,
    PropVestor

Page 4 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •