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Thread: Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley

  1. #81
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    3,749

    Default

    Managed to siam all the CM so far with careful planning. But going forward cannot siam ABSD anymore.

    I like your stance!

    Quote Originally Posted by ccreporter View Post
    Agree with you. I made my purchase during cm too.
    Price might rebound if cm is removed.
    And how many 10 years do we have....
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  2. #82

    Default

    Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley

    Friday, April 14, 2017

    by Lynette Khoo
    lynkhoo@sph.com.sg
    @LynetteKhooBT


    SINGAPORE'S property prices are expected to turn the corner next year, ending a protracted downtrend since late 2013, and to double by 2030, Morgan Stanley says in a note.

    This is based on its forecast that home prices will rise by 5 per cent each year on a per square foot (psf) basis from 2018 to 2030.

    The bullish report issued by the bank on Wednesday dismisses concerns raised by property market bears who flagged slower population growth, an ageing population and a structural growth slowdown as weighing on the long-term property market outlook.

    "We disagree, and in fact, we expect home prices to double by 2030," five Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the report.

    But they noted that with developers likely to continue "right-sizing" units, an estimated one per cent decline in average home size in square feet each year will translate to an average 4 per cent annual growth in prices per unit, hence keeping pace with the anticipated income growth of 4 per cent.

    The report suggests that in the long run, it is household formation rate, not population growth, that one should consider - and that figure has been rising.

    "We expect a rising household formation rate, driven by singles, and shifting profile of foreign labour towards higher skilled workers to offset the slower headline population growth," the Morgan Stanley analysts said.

    Resident household growth has picked up since 2013, driven by an increasing number of single households. Given rising singlehood here, Morgan Stanley estimates that one in five Singapore resident households will be occupied by just one person by 2030, from one in eight households in 2010.

    Secondly, even though Singapore's annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to average 3 per cent from 2016 to 2030, it will still be higher than many advanced economies.

    The International Monetary Fund expects average annual GDP growth in advanced economies to be 1.7 per cent between 2016 and 2021, while the OECD's estimate of the long-term average potential output for OECD members (which include emerging market economies such as Mexico, Chile and Turkey) stands at about 2.3 per cent per annum between 2016 and 2030.

    The outlook for Singapore's economy has brightened lately on the back of export-led growth in the resurgent manufacturing sector. But on Thursday, Singapore's flash estimate showed a slightly lower-than-expected GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2017 from a year earlier, easing from the 2.9 per cent growth in the previous quarter.

    Morgan Stanley notes that Singapore remains a globally relevant city that attracts foreign capital and talent. It believes any supply- demand mismatch in the property market is less likely to persist because the massive state-owned land bank and the dominance of public housing provide much flexibility to tweak supply.

    Bequest motives, lease buyback schemes and shifting manpower trends will also help assuage property market selling pressures that come as the population ages, it says.

    Property prices surged more than 60 per cent from 2009 through 2013, fuelled by rock-bottom global interest rates even as the Singapore government rolled out a series of cooling measures since late 2009 to prevent a bubble from forming. But prices have fallen by only 11.3 per cent as at end-2016 from the peak in Q3 2013. From 1975 to 2016, home prices rose at a rate of 7 per cent per annum.

    Indicators of supply-demand dynamics have already improved significantly - residential supply has peaked, demand is now surprising on the upside, and developers' unsold inventory is at an all-time low.

    "The recent easing of property curbs suggests that we are closer to the bottom, which will improve buyer sentiment," Morgan Stanley analysts said, referring to the measures taken in early March to lower the seller's stamp duty and shorten the minimum holding period from four years to three years.

    In the near term, Singapore's improving macroeconomic outlook and an expected surge in sales volume this year will set the stage for a price recovery next year and developer stocks to rerate over the next 12 months, the report posits.

    Morgan Stanley has raised its price targets for Singapore-listed developers by 17 per cent on average, which reflect a tightening of discounts to revalued net asset value from 39 per cent to 28 per cent. Its top picks are CapitaLand, City Developments and UOL Group.


  3. #83

    Default

    Thousands of potential buyers holding their urge since 2013-2016, knowing gov not going to relax CM they cant hold any longer, thus the explosion on 17.

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    After 2008 the World know you can get out of 'sub prime' by printing more money and buy the toxic note and keep it in the Central Bank.

    It is like building a Water Dam, you can hold the water from flowing down the river up to a limit.

    The limit have reach that is why they need to release.


  4. #84

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomutomi View Post
    Thousands of potential buyers holding their urge since 2013-2016, knowing gov not going to relax CM they cant hold any longer, thus the explosion on 17.
    There are a few factor in play here.

    1. After 3 years Income has increased.
    2. The developer gives Discount.
    3. The developer gives high commission to Agent.
    4. Recent Land sale went up.
    5. Developer buying en-bloc property (HUDC)
    6. The interest rate is still low.
    7. Government reduce SSD and remove TDSR for those with a property signal Bottom already reach.

    Last but the not the least important, how many 10 years do one have.

    Anyone looking at this chart still cannot see, guess no one can help.


  5. #85

    Default

    That waiting is unbearable because only invest in property, only in SG somemore. Such a limited option.

  6. #86

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomutomi View Post
    That waiting is unbearable because only invest in property, only in SG somemore. Such a limited option.
    After all the type of so call investment turn bad, the option is very limited.

    Our most trusted Bank also into the so call investment.

  7. #87

    Default

    Developers have been asking for CM relaxation since 2015 but gov never budged.

    SG is very pro business. In closing the recent tax loophole it may sound like punishing the developer, so gov intro a little sweetener to prop up the market sentiment. Just a guess though.



    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    There are a few factor in play here
    7. Government reduce SSD and remove TDSR for those with a property signal Bottom already reach.

  8. #88

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tomutomi View Post
    Developers have been asking for CM relaxation since 2015 but gov never budged.

    SG is very pro business. In closing the recent tax loophole it may sound like punishing the developer, so gov intro a little sweetener to prop up the market sentiment. Just a guess though.
    There was never a loophole when QC was created.

    http://dollarsandsense.sg/how-proper...-unsold-units/

    The Red Line was cross by the Wee.

    http://www.drea.com.sg/media-and-inv...he-wee-family/

    If they don't do anything the market will not go according to their wish.

    https://www.google.co.in/#q=Developer+ABSD+QC

  9. #89

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Khng8 View Post
    With regards to why buy LH when FH in vicinity is selling at same price - my take is that besides newness, quantum also play a part. New units are minted to meet some pricing target & with TDSR in mind.

    Banks work with developers at new launches.

    Assuming Seaside going at 1600 psf... yet a nearby FH going at 1200 psf ... and banks wont even give it a good / proper valuation..

    without a HIGHER valuation... buyers have to fork out more cash... compared to new launches ...

  10. #90

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    There are a few factor in play here.

    1. After 3 years Income has increased.
    2. The developer gives Discount.
    3. The developer gives high commission to Agent.
    4. Recent Land sale went up.
    5. Developer buying en-bloc property (HUDC)
    6. The interest rate is still low.
    7. Government reduce SSD and remove TDSR for those with a property signal Bottom already reach.

    Last but the not the least important, how many 10 years do one have.

    Anyone looking at this chart still cannot see, guess no one can help.


    Point 3 not correct....

    i believe agents get 1pct for resale...some 1.5 even 2pct.

    New launches, agents get 0.5 to 0.7 pct ... even lower...

    Only developers who have unsold units and the development reaching the 5yr mark...then they give much higher comm to push sales to avoid the penalty.

  11. #91

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Managed to siam all the CM so far with careful planning. But going forward cannot siam ABSD anymore.

    I like your stance!


    high 5 ...


    i also bought all without kana-ing a single CM...

    havent bought anymore since 2011... enough already ...

    only looking at commercial now

  12. #92

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    If what you say is true.It is terrible.I want to leave singapore.

  13. #93

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    Quote Originally Posted by tanghao View Post
    If what you say is true.It is terrible.I want to leave singapore.
    Don't sell everything before you leave Singapore, leave at least one property in case.

  14. #94

    Default


  15. #95
    Join Date
    Nov 2015
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    Duo Residences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Thanks for sharing.

    “新加坡百分之七十是中国人!” That made me sit up a little. Then he corrected "...是华人。”

    That distinction may not be that clear for many mainland Chinese who wants to invest in Singapore? How would that affect our property prices if we open up to specifically more mainland Chinese in the coming years?

  16. #96

    Default Don't know where to get the money.

    Much of Singapore lies less than 50 feet above sea level. A third of the island sits around 16 feet above the water — low enough to give planners the jitters. Coastal roads are being raised; a new airport terminal is being built 18 feet above sea level. All the while, the island receives more and more rain each year. “If global temperatures continue to rise,” a government official said last year, “many parts of Singapore could eventually be submerged.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/m...self.html?_r=0

  17. #97

    Default So Rich.

    Singapore also plans to reclaim its air. “Twelve percent of the island is occupied by roads,” Tan said. “What’s above roads? Nothing! If you put roads under buildings, you free up some land.” Sky bridges and midair concourses are already a part of some public-housing estates. As Wang told me: “In the future, you might see a little town or offices above the expressways. We might create space above our container ports.”

    The government has invested $380 million in agricultural projects in Australia, and it is renting land in northeast China to build itself a farm that will measure double the area of the island of Singapore. The farm will take 15 years to complete and will cost $18 billion.

  18. #98
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
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    D9 Martin Modern Condo
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    5

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    just check out this property from martin mordern
    https://goo.gl/93BQQq

  19. #99

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    Quote Originally Posted by din001 View Post
    just check out this property from martin mordern
    https://goo.gl/93BQQq
    2BR 820sqft 1.88M+

  20. #100
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,738

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    Martin Modern is unique indeed, one of the "RARE" 99-years leasehold property and surrounded predominantly by freehold properties, and selling at >S$2292 psf!


    Quote Originally Posted by anythingwhatever View Post
    2BR 820sqft 1.88M+

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