Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 31 to 44 of 44

Thread: Are Singapore developers forced to walk a tightrope?

  1. #31
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,035

    Default

    1) ABSD does not deter purchases but it does with the imposition of TDSR. Check the table again.

    2) SSD has been imposed since 2010 and lengthened to four years in 2011. It has always remained a low figure. Its true that people buying new launches are less affected by SSD than existing.

    3) True, but what was irrational 10 years ago is deemed rational today.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hakuho View Post
    Are you lost?

    I said:

    1) ABSD does not deter purchases
    2) SSD drove purchases to new launches
    3) New launches are irrationally priced; not all of them but the recent ones certainly are.

    The data supported 1) and 2), no?

    To sell a unit purchased at new launch yesteryear, it is a resale transaction tomorrow. No?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by HP65 View Post
    You are sharp, with SSD, it is no longer possible to just flip a ppty within hours of getting hold of the OTP. And with that, it denies the exuberance seen in the last ppty bull run. But I wouldn't be so quick to suggest the gov is clueless though....it kept the price from running away like during the last bull.
    Go for RES course, join a agency and learn the fine art of property buying and selling. I still learning the art.

    You can't get everything just from reading, facts and figures.

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    566

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by stl67 View Post
    Can still lar, just add "and anomaly" in the OTP. But must be quick.
    Haha....thanks, I know what you mean regarding `and anomaly'....i know can use this to flip otp. But what i meant was last time, after a couple of weeks or months, can really see the price increase. But actually it was really frightening back then as the idea of FT coming to singapore in droves was not known to many.

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    566

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Go for RES course, join a agency and learn the fine art of property buying and selling. I still learning the art.

    You can't get everything just from reading, facts and figures.
    Thanks for the suggestion....unfortunately i am still working so i cant afford the time

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    9,531

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by HP65 View Post
    Haha....thanks, I know what you mean regarding `and anomaly'....i know can use this to flip otp. But what i meant was last time, after a couple of weeks or months, can really see the price increase. But actually it was really frightening back then as the idea of FT coming to singapore in droves was not known to many.
    Now also can, but not new launch.

  6. #36
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    171

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    1) ABSD does not deter purchases but it does with the imposition of TDSR. Check the table again.

    2) SSD has been imposed since 2010 and lengthened to four years in 2011. It has always remained a low figure. Its true that people buying new launches are less affected by SSD than existing.

    3) True, but what was irrational 10 years ago is deemed rational today.
    1) If you wish to add another element in the equation, then of course there is an impact.

    2) Relook at the data, where the collection from SSD is low and actually insignificant in the big picture, why the government chose to revise? What did they see?

    3) Someone here certainly wish that this statement is true, there are The Hilltops, The Marq etc many examples just refer to BH's reports on CCR transactions. The worst thing that could happen was, having anticipated a bull market and positioned it with multiple purchases but it turned out that all the eggs were/are in the wrong basket. How many 10-years he has?

  7. #37
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,035

    Default

    1) Therefore, with TDSR fixed as permanent measure, ABSD adjustments will have a much larger impact than SSD.

    2) Govt adjusted a few CMs at the same time, including TDSR. I suggest you examine that more carefully. This strategy is known as 声东击西。

    3) Based on average PSF of market or the median or mean of MOST developments, the prices 10 years ago were irrational. You take your pick.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hakuho View Post
    1) If you wish to add another element in the equation, then of course there is an impact.

    2) Relook at the data, where the collection from SSD is low and actually insignificant in the big picture, why the government chose to revise? What did they see?

    3) Someone here certainly wish that this statement is true, there are The Hilltops, The Marq etc many examples just refer to BH's reports on CCR transactions. The worst thing that could happen was, having anticipated a bull market and positioned it with multiple purchases but it turned out that all the eggs were/are in the wrong basket. How many 10-years he has?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  8. #38
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,035

    Default

    Duplicate
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  9. #39
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    171

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    1) Therefore, with TDSR fixed as permanent measure, ABSD adjustments will have a much larger impact than SSD.

    2) Govt adjusted a few CMs at the same time, including TDSR. I suggest you examine that more carefully. This strategy is known as 声东击西。

    3) Based on average PSF of market or the median or mean of MOST developments, the prices 10 years ago were irrational. You take your pick.
    I thought we were looking at how ABSD and SSD are influencing buying behaviour.

    ABSD, SSD, as-is.

    I can agree with you when you are looking the impact of POTENTIAL adjustments of ABSD, SSD to buying behaviour.

    Regarding pricing, we are also looking at irrationality differently.

    I was referring to the peculiarity of why, buyers preferred to pay for the benchmark pricing of a new launch when for the same $psf or lower they can get better ones at resale market. Particularly if the purchases are investment properties.

    What you described, to me is just the normal incremental growth of asset value due to inflation etc. Provided the asset is not mispriced originally.

  10. #40
    Join Date
    Nov 2015
    Posts
    514

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Hakuho View Post
    I thought we were looking at how ABSD and SSD are influencing buying behaviour.

    Regarding pricing, we are also looking at irrationality differently.

    I was referring to the peculiarity of why, buyers preferred to pay for the benchmark pricing of a new launch when for the same $psf or lower they can get better ones at resale market. Particularly if the purchases are investment properties.

    What you described, to me is just the normal incremental growth of asset value due to inflation etc. Provided the asset is not mispriced originally.
    Why buyers buy new launch is mainly due to its unique location and that is not negotiable. For example, there is only this plot of land that is next to an MRT exchange and surround condos are at least 300m away. To buy today at current price is a risk they are willing to take. The proportion of resale out there by volume means you have a much larger choice but that does not mean it is always better even if it is equal or lower psf. Singapore obsession in new and ensuring the skyline is kept modern is also another motivating factor to buy new launches.

    The strategy today is not to buy and flip but to hold for at least 5 or more years. This means the age which you want to let go has to be factored in even though it is freehold. New launch projects have the advantage of time before it becomes second hand. I have owned both 31 year old properties freehold and 2 new 99 years leasehold at the same time.

    Only time will tell if you actually made money at transacted price after paying all duties and taxes. That is when you know if it is 'mis-priced' or not.

  11. #41
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    171

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Why buyers buy new launch is mainly due to its unique location and that is not negotiable. For example, there is only this plot of land that is next to an MRT exchange and surround condos are at least 300m away. To buy today at current price is a risk they are willing to take. The proportion of resale out there by volume means you have a much larger choice but that does not mean it is always better even if it is equal or lower psf. Singapore obsession in new and ensuring the skyline is kept modern is also another motivating factor to buy new launches.

    The strategy today is not to buy and flip but to hold for at least 5 or more years. This means the age which you want to let go has to be factored in even though it is freehold. New launch projects have the advantage of time before it becomes second hand. I have owned both 31 year old properties freehold and 2 new 99 years leasehold at the same time.

    Only time will tell if you actually made money at transacted price after paying all duties and taxes. That is when you know if it is 'mis-priced' or not.
    Everyone has his style or niche when it comes to buying a property. There is no superior, right or wrong approach; he adopts the approach he is comfortable with.

    There are known unknown risks in buying new launch.

    1) If the project to be completed due to probable funding or technical issue faced by Developer - very rarely so in Singapore

    2) If the project to be delayed for TOP/occupation - used to be rarely so, but increasingly common because of QC regulation

    3) If the finished product built according to plan, that is the quality according to prospectus and the level of defects - commonly so because of tighter margins

    For buying style, you have the appetite for these known unknown risks and I don't.

    But I am happy to pay a premium (over the launch price) for a project newly TOP'ed. The premium is, to me, fair compensation to a buyer who carried the known unknown risks which didn't materialise. So long as the initial rental contracts support the premium price, the purchase is sound. Also I am fussy when it comes to how idling money is handled.

    If I am allowed to comment on DR as a near finished product.

    From what can be seen outside, its 'look' supports the launch price. It is certainly iconic and a good addition to the area. It is worth a look from the inside as a finished product and then wait for the initial rental contracts to gauge demand.

  12. #42
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    484

    Default

    [If I am allowed to comment on DR as a near finished product.

    From what can be seen outside, its 'look' supports the launch price.]

    you talking about DR == Duo residences?

  13. #43
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    171

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tonymontana View Post
    [If I am allowed to comment on DR as a near finished product.

    From what can be seen outside, its 'look' supports the launch price.]

    you talking about DR == Duo residences?
    Sorry, yes.

  14. #44
    Join Date
    Nov 2015
    Posts
    514

    Default

    There is an optimal path and so thats why there are successful investors over lesser ones even during such challenging times. Do all the homework required. Don't get overtly lazy and greedy. 70% of the information is there to connect the dots.

    Your points of a newly developed project risks are all valid. Hence, the developer evaluation is supremely important. M+S is untested but MY and SG PMs came for a site visit, how south can it go? News will cover DR and MO opening. Lets see. For Park Place Residences, another multi billion dollar development, LandLease (Sydney Opera House and Petronas Twin Towers) is well known worldwide and ADIA (higher UAM than GIC) speaks for itself. 2H 2019 will be the moment of truth. I also expect media coverage.

    One lesser point is the architect commissioned. I am happy DP Architect is watching over both DR and PPR. DP built Sports Hub, Dubai Mall, Esplanade and RWS. Their fees are top dollar. I put 30% weight on this.

    New investment property risks must be contained and calculated. There are too many media coverage on poor ones but good ones are under wraps. I take it as an opportunity as lesser people contending with us! It takes a sizeable pool of trusted property agents to know which developer should be struck off. Its quite a long one for me unfortunately. This applies to second hand properties which I will not touch if its from that list no matter what stories the agent tells me. The trend now is foreign consortium being more common bidding for land, hence the architect weightage will go up in future. Lets see.

    2 important conditions for newly launch (assuming economic conditions are as present). Is it a transformational or iconic project by a well-known/backed developer-architect that will revamp the district? Can you afford the entry price for the next 5-10 years? If 2 ticks, go for it. As you can probably tell, not many projects will fit this criteria, just a small handful. You could miss an opportunity that only comes once every decade. 1 plot of prime land = 1 first mover chance. Ballot luck is the last hurdle.

    Till today, I always remind myself of The Sail before MBS was built. Hindsight 20/20. Too bad back then I just graduated and not a penny to my name.

    2 cents,
    PropVestor

Similar Threads

  1. The Fed could be forced into dizzying handbrake turn
    By reporter2 in forum Coffeeshop Talk
    Replies: 0
    -: 12-01-22, 09:54
  2. HSBC's political tightrope act opens up internal fault lines
    By reporter2 in forum Coffeeshop Talk
    Replies: 0
    -: 08-06-20, 15:59
  3. Battered residential developers forced to slash prices to evade hefty fines
    By princess_morbucks in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 27-11-14, 21:07
  4. Forced Sale & Beyond
    By Reisor in forum En Bloc Discussion and News
    Replies: 6
    -: 16-04-13, 10:32
  5. Many forced to downgrade after going for en bloc sale
    By mr funny in forum En Bloc Discussion and News
    Replies: 2
    -: 20-06-07, 12:23

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •