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Thread: Life is a struggle.You struggle ... again & again. And one day, you triumph

  1. #81

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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post


    The rising of China & Trump American 1st policy “We will never ever sign bad trade deals"
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    It is the determination of the Chinese people to build a “modern, powerful, wealthy Chinese nation - LKY in the 1960s


    Let the DRAGON sleep, for when she wakes, she will move mountains.
    Let CHINA sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world - 18th Century French president Napoleon.



    China last 200+ yrs declined was due to close door policies & it political system. On 1st Oct 1949, China was unified by the Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong


    In 1978, Deng Xiao Ping leader opened China to the world & learned from the world best. It has enjoyed rapidly growing economies in the last 30 yrs.


    In 2001,China joined the WTO with US approval. US believes that when the Chinese become better off. They will eventually want more freedom which will adopt Taiwan style democracy. But it was not to be. China govt refused to adopt democracy & majorities of the Chinese are more interested in making life even better by working harder.


    In 2016, the total output of China manufacturing industry has exceed America by more than 150%. Japan & Germany managed to reach 70% of America manufacturing industry & White house (President) already Kpkb ("kao pei kao bu" means "cry father cry mother" in hokkien ) & started to act to contain Japan & Germany in the 80s.


    The Chinese DNA - extremely hardworking. They can learn extremely fast because they learnt from all over the world. Scientific research (R&D), they learn from US,/Russian. manufacturing from German. Management from Japan, Intellectual property right from HK, industrial park & green city planning from SG , Agriculture from Israel etc. There is no blockage from China wanting to learn from the best.

    China is also fortunate to learn for past countries bad experience like Japan ppty burst in 80s, 1997 Asia financial crisis which is the result of opening up the financial sector too fast & lastly, the 2008 US financial crisis which due to US banks overleveraging.


    In the last 20 yrs , the Western countries vigorously advocate almost every year (a person who publicly supports) that China will collapse . They belittle China which was a agriculture country for the past thousand of years will only able to make toys, clothes , low & middle end electronic consume goods etc etc. So the past US president did not act early on the China containment policies (to diminish the economic and political growth of China) . US is also busying fighting a stupid & unless war in the Middle east which cost them a few TRILLION dollars over 10+ years.Never in US imagination that China can build Bullet train within 10 yrs, Aircraft Carrier & 5th generation fighter Jet within 25 yrs , Passenger Aircraft C919 within 20 yrs , China space rapid advancement , China expansion of land reclamation activities in South China sea within a few years etc etc.


    17 years later, Trump said China WTO membership was a terrible mistake. 美国不甘心接受中国的崛起. Now he wants China to accede to US demand on trade deficit. To cut the U.S. trade deficit by US$200 billion by 2020. No way it is achievable as US does not have the intention of selling high tech product which China is already buying from Japan or Euro. Beijing to give up ‘Made in China 2025’ (industrial modernisation AI tech , 5G etc) which will threaten US lead in this area. Trump thought that China will relentless agreed to all his demand just like what had happened to Japan & Germany in the 80s. It was not to be.


    The trade war has started. Hopefully, there will be a more amicable solution that make American more "happy". If not, the world will have a big recession in 2019. With the financial bubble (old habit dies hard) much bigger than 2008.
    A prolong trade war will be the mother of economic & stock crisis predicted by some famous economist.

    China 20 yrs Preparation way ahead of a unavoidable eventual trade war
    ======================================================
    人无远虑, 必有近忧. If one country or a person has no long-term considerations, he can hardly avoid troubles every now and then.

    As US dollar is a global currency . American run a trade deficit for past 40 straight years.It can print & pay people dollars as long as the world are willing to accept it. So they can perpetually consume more than what they can earn.


    In the 80s, Japan has a large trade deficit with US. US wants to curb Japan’s growing economic power. Unsuspecting Tokyo walked into this carefully prepared trap by Washington & signed a Plaza accord to strengthen Japan currency as well as lower Japan interest rate. Within a few months, Japan currency strengthen by >50% from 240 to 110+ (now US$1=111). Japan’s booming export-oriented economy began to decline, entering a decade-long recession in the 1990s.


    Washington is using some of the same trade tools against Beijing that it once used against Tokyo. Former Japanese prime minister Yasuo Fukuda (friendly to China) cautioned China to “learn from the painful Plaza accord lesson of Japan”. Chinese policymakers have been assiduously studying the Japan mistakes’. Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others. China won’t repeat Japan’s Plaza Accord past mistake.


    1997 Asia financial crisis
    ===============
    It began with a series of asset bubbles in the early 90s.. Most are funded largely by heavy borrowing from banks (corruption & cronyism ) especially the cheap US borrowing rate against their local rate. Ready investors and easy lending often lead to bad investment quality and excess capacity soon began to show in these economies.

    It all started George Soros knows that Thailand property market was unsustainable . Due to the wide opening of the Financial sectors. The currency traders (George Soros) and hedge fund which can easily borrow without any constrain began attacking the Thai baht's. It proved successful and it currency devalued & CRASHED. It led to contagious effect. With the succession attack on Thailand baht. They move their target to other Asian currencies including the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Korea , Singapore dollar etc.


    At the height of the crisis, the Korean Airline with asset of 100 planes were left less than 3 planes. Our DBS bank was saved by POSB bank. They merged together. Tat Lee bank merged with Keppel bank. Years later, It was acquired by OCBC bank.

    Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad blamed George Soros for the Msia crisis. It was saved introduction capital control to prevent Currency traders & hedge fund for further attack.

    Chinese govt knows that they will definitely face similar traits that SEA , Korea & Japan faces during the 90s. Asset bubbles, corruption , cronyism , bad quality investment & excess capacity. So China cannot & will not open up their financial sector too fast & wide to allow the history repeat itself during the 1997 Asia financial crisis. There is a restriction & high cost for currency traders & hedge fund to attack Rmb currency. China also allow only US$50k per year to remit money out from China. Now even tighter.

    Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others. So China cannot & will not open up their financial sector too loosely.


    US Financial crisis in 2008.
    =================
    The US banks had too many “toxic” asset accumulated from 2002 to 2007 which led to crisis. Property investors & consumer can borrow easily without even to look at their income & it ability to pay back the loan. My friend told me that his uncle in US can just pay US$1 as a deposit to buy a car without any credit worthiness check. US recovered by simply print more to ride through this once in century crisis.


    Military power
    =========
    In 1999, US intentionally (China claimed) bombed (Boeing make B2 bomber) & destroyed China's Embassy in Belgrade (East European). 3 Chinese journalists were killed & many were injured. The most humiliated part is that the 3 dead need to be sent back by Boeing plane which the Boeing made B-2 bombers that killed them.

    American Hegemony Is Here to Stay. Hegemony- the position of being the strongest and most powerful and therefore able to control others).

    The Chinese govt knows that having a large TRILLION of reserve is not enough to way off any attack on China. China always believes that US will use force to bring China to it knee by blocking important shipping trade that go through Strait of Malacca. So China began to work to reduce the risk by having port investment in Myanmar & Pakistan connect to China Mainland , good through land to Euro etc.

    China Military also aggressively started to learn from US & Russian on scientific military research on Advancing their military capability. The last 15 years advancement of modernising of China military leave US in a state of astonished shock. Aircraft carrier , 5th gen fighter jet , Advance military satellite , the mighty aircraft carrier new anti missile which is a threat to US carrier , reclamation land of South China Sea etc.

    Looking at the latest fight between Trump President & China. It maybe a long trade war. It is like a breath holding contest. It is like 2 kids go under water to test who can hold their breathe the longest. China maybe (?) can hold much longer than US as China is a one party rule & they don’t face election. President trump will face a important mid election in Nov18. If he wins .It will give TRUMP a boost to continue to fight. If he lose, I do hope Trump nego a trade deal that is not blackmail but a deal which China can accept to the dignity of Chinese.


    Emergency fund
    ===========
    I always plan ahead. I get a little worry over 10 years later financial issues. Not next years or 3-5 yrs later. So I always hv some disagreement with my wife on financial issues.I started to plan CPF OA as my emergency fund early. Plan for CPF retirement fund much early. Right now, I hv >400k in my CPF OA as a emergency fund to switch from cash to CPF OA if urgent needs arise. If I know early that I can transfer my CPF OA (2.5%) to SA (4%) in my early 30s. I will probably have >280k in my CPF Special acct (transfered CPF OA to SA at age 30). I only know it in the early age 40s.

  2. #82

    Default





    Amazing grace – Modern wage & debt Slavery
    ==================================
    Amazing Grace” is the most beloved song in the last 200 yrs. John Newton (Born in 1725 ) , a black African slave trader wrote the beloved hymn "Amazing Grace." He described the horrors of the Slave Trade and his role in it for many years. He renounced his former slaving profession & campaign for abolition of the black African Slave Trade. In 1807, when the act to abolish the Slave Trade finally became law, John Newton was nearly blind and near death, "rejoiced to hear the wonderful news."


    Amazing Grace, how sweet the sound
    That saved a wretch (unhappy person) like me
    I once was lost, but now am found
    T'was blind but now I see.


    In the 70s to 90s, companies like Seagate , HP , Motorola etc moved part of the manufacturing production to SG as our workers are educated, hardworking & disciplined. More & more parts are eventually outsource from US to SG locally . Metal shield from $3 to 0.4. Connector $1 to 0.2. Metal port from $4 to 0.8.etc etc. Many of our SG Small & medium Co were benefited by US-led globalisation. SG has a 30 yrs of high growth under one party majority rule under Lee Kuan Yew where decision making is fast & efficient & Zero corruption tolerance policy. Our SG $ is just like GOLD. USD/sgd1.80 to 1.36 ,CAD/sgd 1.45 to 1.03 , Pound/sgd3.5 to 1.8 , Euro/sgd 2.00 to 1.58 , Aus 1.2 to 1.0 & lastly SGD to ringgit 1.50 to 3.00.



    China begins to slowly catching up as in term of cost & quality in the 90s.The 1st sign of worry (mid 90s) comes when one of our major customer (Microsoft) decided to halt the production with immediate effect despite most of the new equipment are ready for production ramp up to 100k -300k/mth vol. Our competitor offered 30% cheaper to be build in China. In Dec 2001, China became a member of the World Trade Organization.. After signing of the WTO , China grew & learnt leap & bounce. It become obvious that eventually jobs will move out from SG to China & S.E.A.


    The New York Times always wants to understand that the US is technologically advanced. How can China develop faster than them? It was later review after much investigation.

    Steve Jobs put the newly developed Apple phone and key in the same pocket. The key scratched the plastic surface of the phone. Steve Jobs freaked before 1st iPhone was released in a month . He won’t sell a product that gets scratched . He demanded A NEW Screen to be changed into glass case within weeks. The vice president immediately flew to Shenzhen instead source it through US local suppliers Why ? It take to gather workers in the US & start production in 9 months. American workers have to go on holiday on weekends , watch the game etc etc.


    But in Shenzhen, the Chinese workers , executives & engineer can come to work within 24 hours after the call. The glass type was successfully made within 2 weeks. The Chinese plant got the job (order). Shenzhen is the industry's most concentrated processing position in the world.

    More than 50% of Apple’s mobile phone profits is earned by Apple’s shareholders, and Chinese workers’ hard-earned money is less than 5%. But t was China that benefited as a whole because China won employment and the reserve they built was used built infra-structure at astonishing speed.

    The high-tech workers who were fired by Apple in the United States were unemployed and came back to test the returned Mac. Almost everybody else’s income has been stagnant or declining a lot.

    Reagan (my idol) makes America Great. Bill Clinton widen the gap. But it is Bush that destroy it. $1 trillion on Sept11. $3 trillion of middle east war & $8 trillion on 2008 US financial crisis. $1.5 trillions of dollars can help to build US infra-structure & another 1 trillion can help resolve the ever increasing $1 trillion student loan.

    US is a bankrupt country but the global currency reserve enable them print to bailout AIG , Citigroup , FORD , Bank of American etc but not helping the student loan or to build & upgrade their old infra-structure.


    The same things that happen in US are now happen to some part S’pore sector. My former boss & colleagues in Motorola were retrenched in early 2000s. He was wise to move to China to work.

    Six years ago, my former colleague (conner-seagate) was offered 2 choices. Move to China or take retrenchment benefits. He took the retrenchment benefits & decided to go into fulltime stock trader speculating penny stock .It is a terrible mistakes.

    My older friend was retrenched at age 49 as the American company decided to shift to Penang due to high cost. Unable to find a job for many mths. Later work as a part time security guard at my son school for 2-3 week. Now work at a local company as storeman which need to carry heavy goods . Cannot last long as sign of back pain begin to surface.

    Despite this pioneer staff (late 40s & high salary) work together with the boss during the start up company for 25 yrs. The boss under cost pressure decided to cut cost drastically. Strip all her responsibility. Don’t involved her in all the meeting. Eventually she cannot take it & resigned as she has some saving. Next tgt is another mgr. Exactly the same tactic used.


    I met my 2 former SG operators (6 yrs ago) who I pleaded her to work overtime during the good times (early 90s) . One of them pleaded me to help her to find a less stressful (no standing) jobs. It is really a stressful job working at hawker center selling Dessert.


    There was a couple coincidentally met her former Malay superiors (retired). She said that the NEW young boss is totally uncaring. Keep Ask her why she is taking so many leave for a back pain which is due to constant carrying & long hour standing.

    Many of the manufacturing jobs already moved China & S.E.A. To reduce cost, SG employer prefer Foreigner workers. It result in many of our PMET are either jobless , stagnant salary & downgrade to WAGE Slave . Those PMET (professional , Mgr , engr , technician) who thought that can keep working till 55-60 . Suddenly. they were retrenched at early 40s. They become DEBT Slave out of blue to pay for their mortgage , car , family expenses etc.


    The next 10-15 yrs will be even worst for job avail if S'porean don't upgrade to their new skill. With AI & 5Gs , more jobs will be replaced by new technologies eventually. Hope that our govt can re-invented itself again just like the Garden by the bay. It is now world famous.



  3. #83
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    Jun 2009
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    Southbank
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    Good sharing.

    See with my own eyes how 3 AT&T old staff in R&D lost their job.

    Keep telling myself I will not be taking the letter but giving the letter instead.

    With God Blessing, I give them the letter on 21 May 2018.

  4. #84

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    Vic, any sharing of the current bond & stock market?

  5. #85

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    https://youtu.be/pxzBTQDv88I

    Buy base on Buggy Jumping strategy.
    A huge phobia of heights. It is about mindset.

    Bungee jumping is the scariest thing when you first step off the ledge but once you force yourself jump
    afterwards it feels amazing and really want to try again.

    It is same as investing. When there is max fear in the mkt & everybody is phobia. Then it is time to buy.
    Newspaper front page news. Stock plunging , jobless rate plunge to 5%-8% , Govt take out from reserve to help
    out etc etc.Tough Times Never Last, but Tough People Do

    Stock mkt will never dies. Good time dont last long. Just be more patience.

  6. #86
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    I am preparing myself for the next big event..RECESSION...timing..dunno, reading around year 2020.

    The trigger of this highly likely is the DEBTS of USA and perhaps the EM.

    Currently, US government is issuing more debts to roll over interest and the balloon will be come to a state where nobody buying its bonds.
    Couple with the trade war, I term it as slow death.. where the prices of goods will be going up, and slowing down the economy activities and leading to job losses.

    Still reading and researching on this subject, and especially what is the best currency to hold.

  7. #87
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    Theoretically, this is the case. Practically, this is not going to happen because US will then create war threats, wars in Middle-East etc and most big money will shift their money to "safe-haven" again - Yes, that is US and US$!

    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna View Post
    I am preparing myself for the next big event..RECESSION...timing..dunno, reading around year 2020.

    The trigger of this highly likely is the DEBTS of USA and perhaps the EM.

    Currently, US government is issuing more debts to roll over interest and the balloon will be come to a state where nobody buying its bonds.
    Couple with the trade war, I term it as slow death.. where the prices of goods will be going up, and slowing down the economy activities and leading to job losses.

    Still reading and researching on this subject, and especially what is the best currency to hold.

  8. #88

    Default



    Buy base on Buggy Jumping strategy - A huge phobia of heights
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bungee jumping is the scariest thing when you first step off the ledge but once you force yourself jump afterwards it feels amazing and really want to try again.


    We should not be a frog in the well ( see the little patch of sky above inside the well).A person with a limited outlook when it comes to global events. So many things have changed after the once in a century US financial crisis in 2008. Stagnant pay , no certainty of job security , high cost of living (milk power), surging housing price , US/China trade war etc etc.


    It is very tough when it comes to making a living. Retirement a scary prospect for lower/middle income group($1500-$5000). Without change in saving and investing behaviour, you expect to work as slaves for money for the rest of your life. Hopefully, you health permit you to work beyond age 70. Life is always a struggle. So do not get yourself into a painful struggle which you can avoid at young age. 金钱不是万能的 没有金钱是万万不能的. Money is not everything no money is totally NO NO NO in SG. Start investing as young as possible.


    It is extremely importantly when you invest, you need to choose a journey of investing against the herd instinct group of majority people (90%). I have made many mistakes & survived. I survived 1997/98 Asia financial in 1998 & the 2008/2009 US financial crisis. My 20yrs + investing experience accumulated tell me that patience is really key in crisis investing. Investing in crisis time is the most rewarding and it will shortened your journey to Financial Freedom. But it is one of the most difficult investing decision. Only the "very NEW investor (pnly <10%) , very experience investors who have gone through a few of these crisis , investors which has alot of CASH avail will only dare to invest.


    Do not blindly follow your remisers, your bankers , your friends/relative , analysis report recommendation etc. If your base on your stock mkt or individual stock FEAR analysis. Your decision will be more right than wrong. At least you are buying price way below calm (no fear) price. Example. Bankers/other recommend starhub at $3.50(calm price ) (high was 4.50 - very optimistic price ) base on dividend yield (5%). You will likely to lose a lot as the price is now $1.68. It is the same for M1 or Keppel corp, SembCorp etc.


    Fool me ONCE , shame on YOU. (kena scammed playing penny stock)
    Fool me TWICE, shame on ME. (Take revenge to recoup earlier penny stock loses)
    Fool me 3rd TIME,How STUPID I am. (Base on hope investing - Old habit dies hard)
    Fool me the 4th TIME, I need to be CONDEMNED.( Still cant get rid of herd instinct investing)
    Fool me the 5th , 6th TIME, Totally hopeless gamblers (borrow from parent , friends, relative , loan shark).
    The final tragedy for a hopeless GAMBLER will bring financial disaster to his/her families.


    Below are a few small & big crisis that stock price is more attractive (fear price - NOT EXTREMELY fear like the 2008/2009)
    2010 - Middle east crisis
    2011 - Greece or Europe debt crisis
    2012 - US deficit crisis (now all ok - just print more)
    2015 - China crisis
    2016 - Russia & Oil & gas crisis
    2019/2020 - Continuous Trade war or Balloon US debt lead to Global crisis soon
    ?


    Invest like Warren buffet (richest man in the world).
    1) Buy during "tough" times. Tought times never last. Extreme CHEAP or VALUE stock happen during blood in the street (CARSH).
    Buy during blood in the street . The downside risk is tremendously reduced. Upside gain is tremendous.


    2) Buy good blue chip stock (SG & 3 big China banks) & keep a long-term to collect dividend. Just like you are buying a "property " renting out to collect rental


    3)UNIT TRUST - Buy during FEAR times
    A unit trust pools money together & is managed by a professional mgr. It attempt to create portfolios that outperform the mkt over a long period of time (15 to 25 yrs).

    Schroder growth fund - Return 8%+ since incept (1991)
    UOB Global health fund -Return 8%+ since incept (2001)
    1st statement dividend fund - Return 8%+ since incept
    AIA regional equity fund - Return 8%+ since incept
    Prudential SG managed - Return 6%+ since incept (1991
    Aberdeen pacific equity fund - Return 9%+ since incept


    Bond fund (R2-3) Low risk return 2-3%
    -------------------------------------------
    Invests primarily in fixed-income assets, such as treasury bonds, corporate bonds or municipal bond. During the optimistic time, you can switch to Bond fund & wait for the next crisis to come & switch buy to high risk unit trust.
    More for experience investors.


    Balanced Fund (R5) - Moderate risk . Return 3%-4%
    Invests in both stocks (50%) and bonds (50%).
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Income fund (R6) - Slightly high risk return 4% to 5%
    Invest into stocks that have consistently high dividends like banks , reits , telco etc.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Growth Fund (8) High risk return >10%.Can also be -10%
    invests in stocks that have the potential to grow substantially
    like Alibaba, Amazon etcAs long as your have the long term investment horizon. Itshould able to outperform in long run (15 -20yrs).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sector fund (7-8) - High risk
    Invests in stocks in a particular industry sector, like financial services , mining or world energy , health care etc.
    Don't put everything into one basket (sector risk)

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Single country fund - High risk. No diversification.
    -------------------------------------------------------
    Example if there is a Korea war. The Korea fund will be greatly hit the most.
    Vietnam fund was launched at $1.00 in 2007. Still below $1 after 10 yrs.


    Young investors can afford to buy (fear) growth fund as long as they have the long term investment horizon. This is to ride through the roller coaster volatility . Holding period at least 15 yrs.But if you are in the 50s. The best optional is to buy income stock. Give quarterly dividend. Timing entry is important.

    If you are in the 60s. Better put your money into your own CPF earning 2.5% to 6%.I have "deposited" into my Father's (age 88) CPF RA acct earning 6% (1st 30k is 6%. Next 30k is 5%).


    Very important to take note
    ------------------------------------
    Greed investing kills just like speeding on the road which will eventually kill you .Never touch speculative stock especially small cap. Don’t trade as it will be a waste of time due to your own human emotional weakness.


    Just be very patience. Wait for the next crisis to come to buy EXTREME fear price. Investing is very simple to grow your retirement. It is you who make it very complex , difficult or no guarantee win. It all about own GREED & herd investing.

    CPF is part of your alternative retirement. So start self contribute cash to max out $37k/year (employee + employer+ own cash) if you have the ability. Any excess of 37k/yr, CPF will return the excess with ZERO invest. Start from $100 per mth through ASX machine.

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Southbank
    Posts
    8,186

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    2019/2020 - Continuous Trade war or Balloon US debt lead to the Global crisis soon?

    When more people know Bank print money, MAS (Central Bank) control the flow more will move their money to the asset.

    2) Buy good blue chip stock (SG & 3 big China banks) & keep a long-term to collect dividend. Just like you are buying a "property " renting out to collect rental

    Not in Singapore, rental at most cover your interest and you need 12% to 15% for SC to recover the ABSD.

    Got a lot of Ya Ya see show flat when they think of ABSD L L keep quite.

    To buy 3 property now.

    Property 1, BSD(4%-15400)+25%(5%CASH or 20%CPF)
    Property 2, BSD(4%-15400)+55%(25%CASH or 30%CPF)
    Property 3, BSD(4%-15400)+65%(25%CASH or 40%CPF)

    Last edited by Arcachon; 22nd September 2018 at 10:21 AM.

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,799

    Default

    My 30+ years investing experience:
    Never ever buy ILPs, Whole Life insurance, high expense ratio Unit Trusts!

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post


    Buy base on Buggy Jumping strategy - A huge phobia of heights
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bungee jumping is the scariest thing when you first step off the ledge but once you force yourself jump afterwards it feels amazing and really want to try again.


    We should not be a frog in the well ( see the little patch of sky above inside the well).A person with a limited outlook when it comes to global events. So many things have changed after the once in a century US financial crisis in 2008. Stagnant pay , no certainty of job security , high cost of living (milk power), surging housing price , US/China trade war etc etc.


    It is very tough when it comes to making a living. Retirement a scary prospect for lower/middle income group($1500-$5000). Without change in saving and investing behaviour, you expect to work as slaves for money for the rest of your life. Hopefully, you health permit you to work beyond age 70. Life is always a struggle. So do not get yourself into a painful struggle which you can avoid at young age. 金钱不是万能的 没有金钱是万万不能的. Money is not everything no money is totally NO NO NO in SG. Start investing as young as possible.


    It is extremely importantly when you invest, you need to choose a journey of investing against the herd instinct group of majority people (90%). I have made many mistakes & survived. I survived 1997/98 Asia financial in 1998 & the 2008/2009 US financial crisis. My 20yrs + investing experience accumulated tell me that patience is really key in crisis investing. Investing in crisis time is the most rewarding and it will shortened your journey to Financial Freedom. But it is one of the most difficult investing decision. Only the "very NEW investor (pnly <10%) , very experience investors who have gone through a few of these crisis , investors which has alot of CASH avail will only dare to invest.


    Do not blindly follow your remisers, your bankers , your friends/relative , analysis report recommendation etc. If your base on your stock mkt or individual stock FEAR analysis. Your decision will be more right than wrong. At least you are buying price way below calm (no fear) price. Example. Bankers/other recommend starhub at $3.50(calm price ) (high was 4.50 - very optimistic price ) base on dividend yield (5%). You will likely to lose a lot as the price is now $1.68. It is the same for M1 or Keppel corp, SembCorp etc.


    Fool me ONCE , shame on YOU. (kena scammed playing penny stock)
    Fool me TWICE, shame on ME. (Take revenge to recoup earlier penny stock loses)
    Fool me 3rd TIME,How STUPID I am. (Base on hope investing - Old habit dies hard)
    Fool me the 4th TIME, I need to be CONDEMNED.( Still cant get rid of herd instinct investing)
    Fool me the 5th , 6th TIME, Totally hopeless gamblers (borrow from parent , friends, relative , loan shark).
    The final tragedy for a hopeless GAMBLER will bring financial disaster to his/her families.


    Below are a few small & big crisis that stock price is more attractive (fear price - NOT EXTREMELY fear like the 2008/2009)
    2010 - Middle east crisis
    2011 - Greece or Europe debt crisis
    2012 - US deficit crisis (now all ok - just print more)
    2015 - China crisis
    2016 - Russia & Oil & gas crisis
    2019/2020 - Continuous Trade war or Balloon US debt lead to Global crisis soon
    ?


    Invest like Warren buffet (richest man in the world).
    1) Buy during "tough" times. Tought times never last. Extreme CHEAP or VALUE stock happen during blood in the street (CARSH).
    Buy during blood in the street . The downside risk is tremendously reduced. Upside gain is tremendous.


    2) Buy good blue chip stock (SG & 3 big China banks) & keep a long-term to collect dividend. Just like you are buying a "property " renting out to collect rental


    3)UNIT TRUST - Buy during FEAR times
    A unit trust pools money together & is managed by a professional mgr. It attempt to create portfolios that outperform the mkt over a long period of time (15 to 25 yrs).

    Schroder growth fund - Return 8%+ since incept (1991)
    UOB Global health fund -Return 8%+ since incept (2001)
    1st statement dividend fund - Return 8%+ since incept
    AIA regional equity fund - Return 8%+ since incept
    Prudential SG managed - Return 6%+ since incept (1991
    Aberdeen pacific equity fund - Return 9%+ since incept


    Bond fund (R2-3) Low risk return 2-3%
    -------------------------------------------
    Invests primarily in fixed-income assets, such as treasury bonds, corporate bonds or municipal bond. During the optimistic time, you can switch to Bond fund & wait for the next crisis to come & switch buy to high risk unit trust.
    More for experience investors.


    Balanced Fund (R5) - Moderate risk . Return 3%-4%
    Invests in both stocks (50%) and bonds (50%).
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Income fund (R6) - Slightly high risk return 4% to 5%
    Invest into stocks that have consistently high dividends like banks , reits , telco etc.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Growth Fund (8) High risk return >10%.Can also be -10%
    invests in stocks that have the potential to grow substantially
    like Alibaba, Amazon etcAs long as your have the long term investment horizon. Itshould able to outperform in long run (15 -20yrs).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sector fund (7-8) - High risk
    Invests in stocks in a particular industry sector, like financial services , mining or world energy , health care etc.
    Don't put everything into one basket (sector risk)

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Single country fund - High risk. No diversification.
    -------------------------------------------------------
    Example if there is a Korea war. The Korea fund will be greatly hit the most.
    Vietnam fund was launched at $1.00 in 2007. Still below $1 after 10 yrs.


    Young investors can afford to buy (fear) growth fund as long as they have the long term investment horizon. This is to ride through the roller coaster volatility . Holding period at least 15 yrs.But if you are in the 50s. The best optional is to buy income stock. Give quarterly dividend. Timing entry is important.

    If you are in the 60s. Better put your money into your own CPF earning 2.5% to 6%.I have "deposited" into my Father's (age 88) CPF RA acct earning 6% (1st 30k is 6%. Next 30k is 5%).


    Very important to take note
    ------------------------------------
    Greed investing kills just like speeding on the road which will eventually kill you .Never touch speculative stock especially small cap. Don’t trade as it will be a waste of time due to your own human emotional weakness.


    Just be very patience. Wait for the next crisis to come to buy EXTREME fear price. Investing is very simple to grow your retirement. It is you who make it very complex , difficult or no guarantee win. It all about own GREED & herd investing.

    CPF is part of your alternative retirement. So start self contribute cash to max out $37k/year (employee + employer+ own cash) if you have the ability. Any excess of 37k/yr, CPF will return the excess with ZERO invest. Start from $100 per mth through ASX machine.

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