Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584 View Post

The rising of China & Trump American 1st policy “We will never ever sign bad trade deals"
It is the determination of the Chinese people to build a “modern, powerful, wealthy Chinese nation - LKY in the 1960s

Let the DRAGON sleep, for when she wakes, she will move mountains.
Let CHINA sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world - 18th Century French president Napoleon.

China last 200+ yrs declined was due to close door policies & it political system. On 1st Oct 1949, China was unified by the Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong

In 1978, Deng Xiao Ping leader opened China to the world & learned from the world best. It has enjoyed rapidly growing economies in the last 30 yrs.

In 2001,China joined the WTO with US approval. US believes that when the Chinese become better off. They will eventually want more freedom which will adopt Taiwan style democracy. But it was not to be. China govt refused to adopt democracy & majorities of the Chinese are more interested in making life even better by working harder.

In 2016, the total output of China manufacturing industry has exceed America by more than 150%. Japan & Germany managed to reach 70% of America manufacturing industry & White house (President) already Kpkb ("kao pei kao bu" means "cry father cry mother" in hokkien ) & started to act to contain Japan & Germany in the 80s.

The Chinese DNA - extremely hardworking. They can learn extremely fast because they learnt from all over the world. Scientific research (R&D), they learn from US,/Russian. manufacturing from German. Management from Japan, Intellectual property right from HK, industrial park & green city planning from SG , Agriculture from Israel etc. There is no blockage from China wanting to learn from the best.

China is also fortunate to learn for past countries bad experience like Japan ppty burst in 80s, 1997 Asia financial crisis which is the result of opening up the financial sector too fast & lastly, the 2008 US financial crisis which due to US banks overleveraging.

In the last 20 yrs , the Western countries vigorously advocate almost every year (a person who publicly supports) that China will collapse . They belittle China which was a agriculture country for the past thousand of years will only able to make toys, clothes , low & middle end electronic consume goods etc etc. So the past US president did not act early on the China containment policies (to diminish the economic and political growth of China) . US is also busying fighting a stupid & unless war in the Middle east which cost them a few TRILLION dollars over 10+ years.Never in US imagination that China can build Bullet train within 10 yrs, Aircraft Carrier & 5th generation fighter Jet within 25 yrs , Passenger Aircraft C919 within 20 yrs , China space rapid advancement , China expansion of land reclamation activities in South China sea within a few years etc etc.

17 years later, Trump said China WTO membership was a terrible mistake. 美国不甘心接受中国的崛起. Now he wants China to accede to US demand on trade deficit. To cut the U.S. trade deficit by US$200 billion by 2020. No way it is achievable as US does not have the intention of selling high tech product which China is already buying from Japan or Euro. Beijing to give up ‘Made in China 2025’ (industrial modernisation AI tech , 5G etc) which will threaten US lead in this area. Trump thought that China will relentless agreed to all his demand just like what had happened to Japan & Germany in the 80s. It was not to be.

The trade war has started. Hopefully, there will be a more amicable solution that make American more "happy". If not, the world will have a big recession in 2019. With the financial bubble (old habit dies hard) much bigger than 2008.
A prolong trade war will be the mother of economic & stock crisis predicted by some famous economist.

China 20 yrs Preparation way ahead of a unavoidable eventual trade war
人无远虑, 必有近忧. If one country or a person has no long-term considerations, he can hardly avoid troubles every now and then.

As US dollar is a global currency . American run a trade deficit for past 40 straight years.It can print & pay people dollars as long as the world are willing to accept it. So they can perpetually consume more than what they can earn.

In the 80s, Japan has a large trade deficit with US. US wants to curb Japan’s growing economic power. Unsuspecting Tokyo walked into this carefully prepared trap by Washington & signed a Plaza accord to strengthen Japan currency as well as lower Japan interest rate. Within a few months, Japan currency strengthen by >50% from 240 to 110+ (now US$1=111). Japan’s booming export-oriented economy began to decline, entering a decade-long recession in the 1990s.

Washington is using some of the same trade tools against Beijing that it once used against Tokyo. Former Japanese prime minister Yasuo Fukuda (friendly to China) cautioned China to “learn from the painful Plaza accord lesson of Japan”. Chinese policymakers have been assiduously studying the Japan mistakes’. Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others. China won’t repeat Japan’s Plaza Accord past mistake.

1997 Asia financial crisis
It began with a series of asset bubbles in the early 90s.. Most are funded largely by heavy borrowing from banks (corruption & cronyism ) especially the cheap US borrowing rate against their local rate. Ready investors and easy lending often lead to bad investment quality and excess capacity soon began to show in these economies.

It all started George Soros knows that Thailand property market was unsustainable . Due to the wide opening of the Financial sectors. The currency traders (George Soros) and hedge fund which can easily borrow without any constrain began attacking the Thai baht's. It proved successful and it currency devalued & CRASHED. It led to contagious effect. With the succession attack on Thailand baht. They move their target to other Asian currencies including the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Korea , Singapore dollar etc.

At the height of the crisis, the Korean Airline with asset of 100 planes were left less than 3 planes. Our DBS bank was saved by POSB bank. They merged together. Tat Lee bank merged with Keppel bank. Years later, It was acquired by OCBC bank.

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad blamed George Soros for the Msia crisis. It was saved introduction capital control to prevent Currency traders & hedge fund for further attack.

Chinese govt knows that they will definitely face similar traits that SEA , Korea & Japan faces during the 90s. Asset bubbles, corruption , cronyism , bad quality investment & excess capacity. So China cannot & will not open up their financial sector too fast & wide to allow the history repeat itself during the 1997 Asia financial crisis. There is a restriction & high cost for currency traders & hedge fund to attack Rmb currency. China also allow only US$50k per year to remit money out from China. Now even tighter.

Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others. So China cannot & will not open up their financial sector too loosely.

US Financial crisis in 2008.
The US banks had too many “toxic” asset accumulated from 2002 to 2007 which led to crisis. Property investors & consumer can borrow easily without even to look at their income & it ability to pay back the loan. My friend told me that his uncle in US can just pay US$1 as a deposit to buy a car without any credit worthiness check. US recovered by simply print more to ride through this once in century crisis.

Military power
In 1999, US intentionally (China claimed) bombed (Boeing make B2 bomber) & destroyed China's Embassy in Belgrade (East European). 3 Chinese journalists were killed & many were injured. The most humiliated part is that the 3 dead need to be sent back by Boeing plane which the Boeing made B-2 bombers that killed them.

American Hegemony Is Here to Stay. Hegemony- the position of being the strongest and most powerful and therefore able to control others).

The Chinese govt knows that having a large TRILLION of reserve is not enough to way off any attack on China. China always believes that US will use force to bring China to it knee by blocking important shipping trade that go through Strait of Malacca. So China began to work to reduce the risk by having port investment in Myanmar & Pakistan connect to China Mainland , good through land to Euro etc.

China Military also aggressively started to learn from US & Russian on scientific military research on Advancing their military capability. The last 15 years advancement of modernising of China military leave US in a state of astonished shock. Aircraft carrier , 5th gen fighter jet , Advance military satellite , the mighty aircraft carrier new anti missile which is a threat to US carrier , reclamation land of South China Sea etc.

Looking at the latest fight between Trump President & China. It maybe a long trade war. It is like a breath holding contest. It is like 2 kids go under water to test who can hold their breathe the longest. China maybe (?) can hold much longer than US as China is a one party rule & they don’t face election. President trump will face a important mid election in Nov18. If he wins .It will give TRUMP a boost to continue to fight. If he lose, I do hope Trump nego a trade deal that is not blackmail but a deal which China can accept to the dignity of Chinese.

Emergency fund
I always plan ahead. I get a little worry over 10 years later financial issues. Not next years or 3-5 yrs later. So I always hv some disagreement with my wife on financial issues.I started to plan CPF OA as my emergency fund early. Plan for CPF retirement fund much early. Right now, I hv >400k in my CPF OA as a emergency fund to switch from cash to CPF OA if urgent needs arise. If I know early that I can transfer my CPF OA (2.5%) to SA (4%) in my early 30s. I will probably have >280k in my CPF Special acct (transfered CPF OA to SA at age 30). I only know it in the early age 40s.