Any Fundamental to Support the Current Run-Away GLS/Enbloc Pricees

[Kelonguni]

Those people been to this forum since the 2000s, will know, this forum is not as active as those days

Last time people buy into private property and cars will discuss until the cows come home then they decide. That was a time when information was not readily available and one can only develop a full picture with good discussions. That frequency has dropped a lot.

Nowadays, info is so readily available that one can draw their own opinions and conclusions after reading tons of reviews, masterplans etc which are all available within a few clicks.

Nobody (current potential buyers) really needs or wants to discuss too much detail and reveal too much privacy in fact.

[Hakuho]

I don't get "mitigate downside by buying new". New launches are priced at a premium (so far I've seen). Those that are priced at a seeming bargain to current resale units on the market are the worst units in the development.

I would buy old. I find there is better value in older developments.

As for the SSD, it is a move to reduce the disincentive when selling. One is penalized less if one needs to sell (for whatever reason). One can say this encourages investors to step in to the market, but I find this a somewhat tenuous link.

Indeed.

Buying new launch is mitigating the downside risk, however in buying new at premium invalidated this objective.

This is the gist of the 'debate' with Kelonguni earlier, when I highlighted this peculiarity.

[tonymontana]

Last time people buy into private property and cars will discuss until the cows come home then they decide. That was a time when information was not readily available and one can only develop a full picture with good discussions. That frequency has dropped a lot.

Nowadays, info is so readily available that one can draw their own opinions and conclusions after reading tons of reviews, masterplans etc which are all available within a few clicks.

Nobody (current potential buyers) really needs or wants to discuss too much detail and reveal too much privacy in fact.

Just means market isn't really hot yet. as long as it doesn't keep dropping too much i won't be too worried.

[tonymontana]

what was it panned out today?

it didn't pan out. nuff said.

[tonymontana]

Indeed.

Buying new launch is mitigating the downside risk, however in buying new at premium invalidated this objective.

This is the gist of the 'debate' with Kelonguni earlier, when I highlighted this peculiarity.

Oh i c. Were they ever new launches selling at discount to market? I mean for same locations. If it's discount but some ulu yet-t0-develop place, it's still better to buy older at better, established locations

[Laguna]

it didn't pan out. nuff said.

Now I recalled, Ringo33 said the J Gateway price would run away...but did not come true

Is it correct?

[Hakuho]

Oh i c. Were they ever new launches selling at discount to market? I mean for same locations. If it's discount but some ulu yet-t0-develop place, it's still better to buy older at better, established locations

Usually new launch at a reasonable premium but not this kind of premium we are seeing today.

We should be aware that the SUPER premium is driven by developers fighting all over themselves for the piece of land.

[Laguna]

It is simple rule...
Land Cost + Construction Cost + Taxes to Govt + Interest + Profit = Selling Price.

So, the only thing to cut is to cut cost in construction rather than profit....After they collects all the money...close shop

[star]

Next year land sales from Tengah. Look out for price of land sales.

[Hakuho]

the question was directed at Laguna. in a televised interview and widely reported in the news, she gave reasons for getting eCo.
it seems that her reasons was kind of off. and if memory served me right, sometime later, she posted she disposed off 1 unit (i dont know whether it is eCo or some other unit)

so if her assumptions were kind of off then, what about now?
that's why asked her to check and re-check her assumptions.

not sure how long you have been lurking before you joined, back then the hot topics were j gateway (king of OCR) and punggol watertown (king of punggol), which set OCR psf records. now that j gateway has TOP, but so quiet, no ringo33 nor his detractors to liven up.

Oops ...

I am 'brand new' here, haha.

Price cannot be argued, depending only market condition it is either the buyer or seller who says "take it or leave it".

The developers have taken over, saying to the buyers "take it or leave it"?

[Tomutomi]

generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)

Good one.

Got a best deal when buying in wrong time, still a bad deal.
Worst deal when buying in right time, still a good deal

[Reisor]

Oops ...
I am 'brand new' here, haha.
Price cannot be argued, depending only market condition it is either the buyer or seller who says "take it or leave it".
The developers have taken over, saying to the buyers "take it or leave it"?

Congratulations for discovering real gems here. Am referring to those gurus who have contributed in this forum when it was much livelier. Made a very impt decision some 7-8 years back after reading the discussions and seeking advice here so able to sit on a modest rental and capital appreciation.. not sky high but thankfully sufficient. Something that is still possible in time to come but as someone pointed out
"good timing, bad location" - can still make some or breakeven (non risky for time being)
"good location, bad timing", - try to lose less or be patient to wait for next higher cycle (need to take another risk)
"good location, good timing", - should maximise when the iron is hot (no risk other than Black Swan event or "GREED" overtaking Prudence is also a very high risk)
"bad location, bad timing" - minimise loss, lesson learn and let humility take over, may still be possible to make a comeback and definitely wiser

Hope to see opinions and discussions.
For a start, noticed that the market has changed or will change with
1. abundance of ready data
2. entry of millenials
3. tech disruptions like AirBnB, UBER, Deliveroo,
4. Empty Malls in Central & Crowded Malls in heartland?
5. Big Panda expansion up north esp. JB, One Belt initiative
6. Govt intervention (regression & moderation in price 2013-2017 after acceleration in price 2010-2013, 4 years gain, 4 years pause)

my 2 cents

[Hakuho]

You have to ask yourself "can I trust this market".

In any market, once it gets emotional you will find mis-pricing taking hold. The price overshoots through either the upside or the downside. Right now, maybe the developers are getting emotional, maybe they are seeing something that we don't know and if so what is it?

The foreign developers are very bullish, and if local developers join the fray, hoseh liao. This is basically what vip has written about, in asking"are local developers forced to walk a tightrope".

You see, all producers of goods want to lower the cost of goods. But here we are seeing producers fighting to increase the cost of goods. I don't think the land is tremendously undervalued, maybe there are small pockets of land here and there but not wholesale.

And don't forget that it is the buyers who are paying the price, the developers do not hold on to the finished products. Indeed, they can't due to QC.

Right now, I will say what we are seeing is the impact of China exporting its production, the same objective of OBOR etc.

If buyers start losing their heads and get emotional, for me I want to be able to step away and jiak my popcorn.

[Amber Woods]

Finally, we are beginning to read more diverse views of the market with more savvy investors and veterans participating in this forum.

Quote Originally Posted by hopeful

generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)

This has to be the wisest advice to any potential investors looking to buy their first investment property. Then again, when emotion rules, the decision to buy is always not so straight forward.

[walkthetiger]

Finally, we are beginning to read more diverse views of the market with more savvy investors and veterans participating in this forum.

Quote Originally Posted by hopeful

generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)

This has to be the wisest advice to any potential investors looking to buy their first investment property. Then again, when emotion rules, the decision to buy is always not so straight forward.

The recent Govt tweaks property cooling measures for SSD and TDSR tickled some false hope of these people, it will cool off eventually and go back to same sentiment before the tweaks. It's a long winter ahead, everything is just beginning.

[tonymontana]

...the J Gateway price would run away...but did not come true

Is it correct?

at 800k for a 474 sft unit in jurong and 99LH somemore, difficult to earn. you can check the rental, already TOP.

[Arcachon]

The recent Govt tweaks property cooling measures for SSD and TDSR tickled some false hope of these people, it will cool off eventually and go back to same sentiment before the tweaks. It's a long winter ahead, everything is just beginning.

If you need to go toilet and someone tell you next stop coming soon and after 3 years the stop is still coming soon, will you go or will you wait for the next stop.

If you know all the CMs, the tweaks is nothing. Only release some water to prevent the Dam overflow.

[2824]

at 800k for a 474 sft unit in jurong and 99LH somemore, difficult to earn. you can check the rental, already TOP.

Some of the units at Park Place residences also hit $2,000 psf and that's phase 1 only

[tonymontana]

Some of the units at Park Place residences also hit $2,000 psf and that's phase 1 only

yes, to me that is also very premium pricing for that location. can buy older FH in D9 already. But hey! I'm not complaining. Huat ah

[Laguna]

We shall see 6 months latet, how is the take up rate of GLS at Stirling Road, and early next year, the two HUDc

[star]

Actually very simple no need to think too hard. When interest rate hit 3.5% some crucial cooling measures will be removed.

[Hakuho]

Some of the units at Park Place residences also hit $2,000 psf and that's phase 1 only

MARTIN PLACE RESIDENCES
Condominium 09 CCR Freehold Resale 1,200,000 - 592 Strata 01 to 05 2,027 Sep-16


PARK PLACE RESIDENCES AT PLQ
Apartment 14 RCR 99 years leasehold New Sale 1,309,999 - 678 Strata 06 to 10 1,932 Mar-17

Didn't know that PPR is Apartment.

[tonymontana]

MARTIN PLACE RESIDENCES
Condominium 09 CCR Freehold Resale 1,200,000 - 592 Strata 01 to 05 2,027 Sep-16


PARK PLACE RESIDENCES AT PLQ
Apartment 14 RCR 99 years leasehold New Sale 1,309,999 - 678 Strata 06 to 10 1,932 Mar-17

Didn't know that PPR is Apartment.

to me is a no brainer if choice is between the two only i'd get the D9 FH condo.

[Hakuho]

to me is a no brainer if choice is between the two only i'd get the D9 FH condo.

If we use 635 sqf as the average, the premium of FH over LH is 4.9%.

But one is CCR9 and the other RCR14.

[walkthetiger]

Actually very simple no need to think too hard. When interest rate hit 3.5% some crucial cooling measures will be removed.

When that happen, cash becomes King, pay full in cash buying cheaply.. haha..

[Laguna]

In 6 - 9 months time, we would have a very good picture as to the take-up rates of these enbloc and GLS properties as to whether there is a real demand. And also, how good is the economy would be clearer as well. US is talking 3 more rate hikes this year.


Unit size would be very small, 3 bedrooms around 800sf, lots of 2 and 1 bedders as affordability rather than liveability is more important for developers to sell.

[Hakuho]

Finally, we are beginning to read more diverse views of the market with more savvy investors and veterans participating in this forum.

Quote Originally Posted by hopeful

generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)

This has to be the wisest advice to any potential investors looking to buy their first investment property. Then again, when emotion rules, the decision to buy is always not so straight forward.

You go to attend a course in the university, and there are 100 students attending.

Every student has the same course material, the same teacher teaching. Some students will pay close attention to what is being taught, and in their own time they do further research related to the course subject. And so, at the end of the semester they will score the As. Some students will clown around not paying attention, wasting their time and in the end they will score the Fs. The rest is genuinely working hard but just unable to grasp what is being taught completely and they will score the Bs and Cs.

This is statistic, the normal distribution principle. Same course material, same teacher.

Now, consider this forum as the class room, those with experience and knowledge to post and share, questions being raised and addressed etc.

What is the result?

The normal distribution principle still applies. There will be the few that will score the As, and the few that score Fs with the rest in between.

Let's not take ourselves too seriously to think what is said in this forum can move this market. Look, we are talking about about 1.3 mil units of residential properties, I don't know maybe 700 k property owners. Even if all of them read this forum, take what is posted seriously enough to make their buy and sell decision, the normal distribution still applies. There will be the winners, and there will still be the losers.

Why?

Property investment is leveraged, the leverage ratio is the highest at 20% for the 1st property (which is not an investment but a consumption, to be accurate).

Like any other investment instruments using leverage, firstly the timing of entry and exit decides if a trade is successful, whether it is profitable. This is why the government has imposed TDSR, the government looked at the situation and basically said "it seems to me that you don't know the risk of leveraging so let me help you decide the leverage ratio to apply when you buy the 2nd, 3rd property alright? And before you can go to make you think harder, please pay for the entry ticket ok? (ABSD)". Secondly, money management is a critical successful factor; for example, you have $300 k and the entire sum is used for the 20% minimal required to finance the purchase, is this good money management?

Timing (some called this being savvy), money management skill cannot be taught. You can teach but he/she either gets it or don't. Finish. It's all about aptitude.

So, you should want to use this forum to gain an edge over the next investors (they are not your competitors, you are your own competitor), get them talking to speak their minds; why are you buying, what are you buying, the why nots.

Free tuition leh.

[Arcachon]

If you are able to buy after all the CMs, you are good to buy.

If you already buy and cannot buy anymore and don't need the money to depreciate in the Bank you don't need to sell.

If you are not able to buy, learn from others success and mistake, save your money and get ready to buy when you can.

[walkthetiger]

If you are able to buy after all the CMs, you are good to buy.

If you already buy and cannot buy anymore and don't need the money to depreciate in the Bank you don't need to sell.

If you are not able to buy, learn from others success and mistake, save your money and get ready to buy when you can.

U miss out another group, weak holding power but need to sell to cut loss, end getting more choked.

[Arcachon]

U miss out another group, weak holding power but need to sell to cut loss, end getting more choked.

There are some who can still hold on to the property, it depends on their will.

I know a few who survive the downturn in 1997.