Any Fundamental to Support the Current Run-Away GLS/Enbloc Pricees

[Amber Woods]

In my previous en bloc, most of my neighbors downgraded as they think markets will come down. Some even rent. Luckily for me being a lazy person don't like to move here and there, upgraded. Just sold my place after staying for 10 years for free and make another pot. Upgrading to another place.

For my ex neighbors who over calculated and think too much, they have not make much move because I believe they can't get over it for missing the boat. (Sound familiar, like some here) As for me, I have make 2 folds by going all out leverage to the max like Mr A.

Now rewinding my bonds and equity position like Laguna to build up my limited bullets being a single income earner. My portfolio is only a fraction compared to Laguna being an investment guru.

For me, I prefer to stay vested instead of camping around for so many years and hoping market to crash. Crash also good,, don't crash also good.

Good to share!

One of my neighbour bought a unit in my estate immediately after a collective sale in 1997 (before the financial crisis). He stay here until the estate went en bloc again and he bought another one near by and still happily staying there. He was lucky because both en bloc happen before GCT's asset enhancement policy.

Another neighbour (a investor) bought a replacement unit (for rental) immediately after en bloc to continue to receive rental. She was smart, she bought a cheaper unit and rented out higher price and pocket the cash difference for other investment.

So again timing is important even for en bloc sale. If your en bloc happen before 2011 or earlier, you had opportunity to ride the wave and stay invested. However, if en bloc happen after 2011, the equation is no longer that simple.

[walkthetiger]

There are indeed one unit i recall sold at 535k during late Jul 06. You sure it still worth 1.5 now?

Arcachon, I guess your closest neighbour is sharp, he didn't miss the boat, still he had managed to find a drunken buyer to buy at 1.4mil on Jan 12..

[Hakuho]

Arcachon, I guess your closest neighbour is sharp, he didn't miss the boat, still he had managed to find a drunken buyer to buy at 1.4mil on Jan 12..

I meant it when saying it the best record, it was a feat!

Look at the historical, Southbank price rallied almost from the get-go, punched through $1,000 psf before GFC. In other words, when money-printing was exclusively a Japanese thing.

Genuinely want to know his insight, but he said God's will. That worked too I guess.

[walkthetiger]

I meant it when saying it the best record, it was a feat!

Look at the historical, Southbank price rallied almost from the get-go, punched through $1,000 psf before GFC. In other words, when money-printing was exclusively a Japanese thing.

Genuinely want to know his insight, but he said God's will. That worked too I guess.

I always teach my children to be a smart property investor, timing is absolute. Always learnt to read markert properly first. Never buy and buy and buy, or doubling up the bet like a gambler in casino.

[Kelonguni]

Which one of us do not make any assumptions in our postings?

Rental low, so prices will come down. Not assumption?

Still have supply, so prices will come down. Not assumption?

Interest rates will go up, so owners will fire sale. Not assumption?

Every statement we put out here contains assumptions. It's just whose assumptions are more reflective of reality.

Good day my friend.

Here he was again ....... making assumption one after another.

[Amber Woods]

Which one of us do not make any assumptions in our postings?

Rental low, so prices will come down. Not assumption?

Still have supply, so prices will come down. Not assumption?

Interest rates will go up, so owners will fire sale. Not assumption?

Every statement we put out here contains assumptions. It's just whose assumptions are more reflective of reality.

Good day my friend.

Unfortunately, those assumptions you made were mostly not able to hold.

[Kelonguni]

The price down 4 years still down or down 4 years reach bottom assumptions will soon be subjected to test and verifications. Enbloc effect is mild or huge also can be tested and verified. Then we will know whose assumptions are more reflective. Please continue to wait.

Unfortunately, those assumptions you made were mostly not able to hold.

[Amber Woods]

The price down 4 years still down or down 4 years reach bottom assumptions will soon be subjected to test and verifications. Enbloc effect is mild or huge also can be tested and verified. Then we will know whose assumptions are more reflective. Please continue to wait.

There you are again, just like Mr A.

[Hakuho]

There you are again, just like Mr A.

I think it is perfectly fine.

Some investors are optimism bias in nature, some pessimism bias. Like me I am pessimism bias, looking at downside risk first and last, but this doesn't stop me looking for bargain.

[Kelonguni]

I remember distinctly 2013 and 2014 also advocating that broadly prices will continue to fall and unless there are strong reasons, one should sit it out.

So no, I am not of the same view as Arcachon and I do roughly gauge what I am interested in with comparative choices and time points.

But to think that one can get the lowest deal at the lowest time point is just wishful thinking. Based on most developments surveyed, prices have already moved up. It's just that somehow the housing price indices did not capture it.

If you feel so fervently that my assumptions are wrong and I did not sense it accurately, there is only one way to be sure. I can only wish you the best.

There you are again, just like Mr A.

[walkthetiger]

I remember distinctly 2013 and 2014 also advocating that broadly prices will continue to fall and unless there are strong reasons, one should sit it out.

So no, I am not of the same view as Arcachon and I do roughly gauge what I am interested in with comparative choices and time points.

But to think that one can get the lowest deal at the lowest time point is just wishful thinking. Based on most developments surveyed, prices have already moved up. It's just that somehow the housing price indices did not capture it.

If you feel so fervently that my assumptions are wrong and I did not sense it accurately, there is only one way to be sure. I can only wish you the best.

Base on what tell u so? Hope it is not depending on agents observation. Maybe the very few bergain hunters knocking too many buyers doors, so causing the noises, giving the false hope.

[Kelonguni]

Base on what tell u so? Hope it is not depending on agents observation. Maybe the very few bergain hunters knocking too many buyers doors, so causing the noises, giving the false hope.

Resales prices have been on the uptrend for close to half year based on srx. Bro bargain hunter has also been reporting a much lower number of such actual transactions of late, not to mention profitable transactions that he does not monitor.

Based on the background sales of private properties pre CMs and current growing sales, we can already see the impact of pent up demand on transaction volume. Based on URA.

Increased enbloc sales remove rental units and supply for old resales from the market, instead injecting liquidity into primarily a group of owners who have benefited from holding units for 20-40 years.

These are not assumptions - they are real data.

[Hakuho]

Base on what tell u so? Hope it is not depending on agents observation. Maybe the very few bergain hunters knocking too many buyers doors, so causing the noises, giving the false hope.

He is very good when staying within the boundary of data analysis. Nothing saying the presumptions are inaccurate. Presumptions being presumption, they are by nature very hard to prove based on current data so are going to attract debate.

BH's reporting is one should look forward to (I do); very objective and sound interpretation.

To those monitoring CCR, the signs there are promising.

https://www.theedgeproperty.com.sg/c...-condo-segment

[walkthetiger]

Resales prices have been on the uptrend for close to half year based on srx. Bro bargain hunter has also been reporting a much lower number of such actual transactions of late, not to mention profitable transactions that he does not monitor.

Based on the background sales of private properties pre CMs and current growing sales, we can already see the impact of pent up demand on transaction volume. Based on URA.

Increased enbloc sales remove rental units and supply for old resales from the market, instead injecting liquidity into primarily a group of owners who have benefited from holding units for 20-40 years.

These are not assumptions - they are real data.

It is only your assumption these are real figures of sustainable uptrend.
Cms still watertight.

[Kelonguni]

It is only your assumption these are real figures of sustainable uptrend.
Cms still watertight.

https://www.srx.com.sg/research/3652...lume-drops-210

Sustainable or not I am not sure. But since last year and this year budget, Govt relax TDSR for refinancing, the movements have generally been positive. And now the enbloc sales are just going to add on to those movements.

[tonymontana]

https://www.srx.com.sg/research/3652...lume-drops-210

Sustainable or not I am not sure. But since last year and this year budget, Govt relax TDSR for refinancing, the movements have generally been positive. And now the enbloc sales are just going to add on to those movements.

from what i observe from a cursory view of the market, resale prices haven't gone up, but asking prices have gone up. Also I seem to see more people looking around for bargains.
to anyone asking me to substantiate, let me answer you now: "Sorry, I don't have data." Purely anecdotal.
As for land banking and enbloc, it's getting hot right now. same for new launch. market definitely feels a lot more positive compared to the past 2-3 years.

[Amber Woods]

It is only your assumption these are real figures of sustainable uptrend.
Cms still watertight.

Mr K was making a lot of wild assumptions such as plot ratio, en bloc buyers etc etc. When confronted, he now try to show data using SRX to prove that he did not anyhow make wild assumptions. Many a time, he would make more wild assumptions just to argue his points or put you down because your points were in conflict with his.

Anyway, the official data from URA showed overall prices for Q1 2017 was down and continue to decline.

[Kelonguni]

Enbloc success also have a stimulatory effect on sellers asking prices and buyers willingness to commit.

Especially with reduced SSD holding period.

It's a common sense assumption.

[Kelonguni]

URA index for non landed was actually flat for this quarter.

Overall negative because of landed prices dropping.

We all make assumptions. Assumptions allow predictions. When read together with data, it can make for a powerful prediction reflective of market conditions. Anyway, it's good for you to continue to wait if you really don't buy in.

Mr K was making a lot of wild assumptions such as plot ratio, en bloc buyers etc etc. When confronted, he now try to show data using SRX to prove that he did not anyhow make wild assumptions. Many a time, he would make more wild assumptions just to argue his points or put you down because your points were in conflict with his.

Anyway, the official data from URA showed overall prices for Q1 2017 was down and continue to decline.

[chestnut]

https://www.singstat.gov.sg/docs/def...ure/pp-s23.pdf

Read pages 30 and 31.

How many % of households earn> 20k in 2006 vs 2016. Dig deeper and come to your own conclusion.

[chestnut]

How many % of resident household earn > 12k per month???? Come to your own conclusion on the effects. Use 2006 vs 2016 to come to your own conclusion . Hahahaha

[Kelonguni]

Not to mention that private property proportion of housing has gone up from maybe 15-20% to 28% in the very near future, relative to HDBs.

Not an assumption.

How many % of resident household earn > 12k per month???? Come to your own conclusion on the effects. Use 2006 vs 2016 to come to your own conclusion . Hahahaha

[chestnut]

Not to mention that private property proportion of housing has gone up from maybe 15-20% to 28% in the very near future, relative to HDBs.

Not an assumption.

In 2006 - hdb occupy 83.1%
In 2016 - hdb occupy 80%

Pg 22

Draw your own conclusion.

If your household income was 12k in 2006, technically it should be > 20k in 2016. If not you are lacking behind the pack.

The increase in salary results in inflation???? I am no economist. Hahahahaha

[Kelonguni]

One possibility is households growing bigger due to pent up demand. Bigger households will have higher incomes.

Just a speculation.

In 2006 - hdb occupy 83.1%
In 2016 - hdb occupy 80%

Pg 22

Draw your own conclusion.

If your household income was 12k in 2006, technically it should be > 20k in 2016. If not you are lacking behind the pack.

The increase in salary results in inflation???? I am no economist. Hahahahaha

[Kelonguni]

http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...slumps-in-2016

In 2006 - hdb occupy 83.1%
In 2016 - hdb occupy 80%

Pg 22

Draw your own conclusion.

If your household income was 12k in 2006, technically it should be > 20k in 2016. If not you are lacking behind the pack.

The increase in salary results in inflation???? I am no economist. Hahahahaha

[chestnut]

One possibility is households growing bigger due to pent up demand. Bigger households will have higher incomes.

Just a speculation.

Read pg 23. Minimal changes.

[chestnut]

http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...slumps-in-2016

This article should be more accurate. The stats in the previous reports are for resident and resident employed households. So those foreigners staying in hdb and/or private are not ncluded.

[star]

Read pg 23. Minimal changes.

Welcome back bro Chestnut.

[Hakuho]

Mr K was making a lot of wild assumptions such as plot ratio, en bloc buyers etc etc. When confronted, he now try to show data using SRX to prove that he did not anyhow make wild assumptions. Many a time, he would make more wild assumptions just to argue his points or put you down because your points were in conflict with his.

Anyway, the official data from URA showed overall prices for Q1 2017 was down and continue to decline.

Wild indeed.

It is better not to depend on potential removal of any of the CMs in making a purchasing decision. Particularly I don't see the removal of TDSR, which is not only about property but car vehicle etc. TDSR is actually good, CM (SSD) is silly but that's my view.

Plot ratio revision, wait long long.

[Arcachon]

Arcachon, I guess your closest neighbour is sharp, he didn't miss the boat, still he had managed to find a drunken buyer to buy at 1.4mil on Jan 12..

Long time no update, look like moving again.