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Thread: Any Fundamental to Support the Current Run-Away GLS/Enbloc Pricees

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna View Post
    Till you can prove, I doubt you can triple this in 4 years as I bought a few around that time in much better location
    I don't know how to prove, only know got an email from UOB to cash out my property at Southbank.

    UOB value my property at 1,550,000 in Dec 2010 after CSC, loan me 660,000 on top of 428,000 which I loan in Jun 2006.

    Tell me I cannot use the money to buy property.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by walkthetiger View Post
    There are indeed one unit i recall sold at 535k during late Jul 06. You sure it still worth 1.5 now?
    Price going up soon because MCST just got the main contractor to do some of the defects after years of asking and also doing whole building painting now.

    Spend a few weeks staying at Southbank during my holiday back in Singapore when the tenant move out and new tenant moving in later.

    Love the place, did walk from Southbank to MBS during one of the stays.

    wow that was 7 years ago, how many ten years do you have.


  3. #123
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    Drove from La Teste De Buch(near Arcachon), France to Gatwick, England by the Tunnel.


  4. #124
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    Southbank Oct 2013

  5. #125
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    Miss the guru at skyscrapercity forum.

    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=358211

  6. #126
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    I don't make blank assumptions. The selling price agreed for enbloc do take into considerations the POTENTIAL for plot ratio revisions, even if these do not manifest. Any one of revisions in building height, use restrictions etc will also influence its POTENTIAL, and thus the price that enblockers are willing to accept and that developers are willing to pay.

    All the points I put for resales price increases, volume spike, vacancy falls (last 2 quarters), and rental stabilisation are backed by official stats.

    For me, I do not buy old enbloc potential properties (silly me) and so I could only speculate based on assumptions and presumptions. But I have visited a multi-gen unit of HUDC where a pair of grandparent lived with several children, a son-in-law, plus grandchildren. When it was enblocced, the daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren went back to their HDB. One of the spouse (single name) bought a resales large private to house their family, and one of the other unmarried child bought a new rental property. They are keeping options open for the other few family members, but all the properties are in single name, why?

    I just know that such movements remove supply for sales and rental from the market, regardless of whether they already have existing or are able to downgrade to HDB resales. Whether they are the majority or minority, who knows?

    In any case, if you distrust my assumptions and presumptions, which are what they are (no official stats will ever report these), then all you have to do is wait.

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...l-appreciation

    I have been speculating about enbloc effect on revival of market since Oct 2015.


    Quote Originally Posted by Hakuho View Post
    Wild indeed.

    It is better not to depend on potential removal of any of the CMs in making a purchasing decision. Particularly I don't see the removal of TDSR, which is not only about property but car vehicle etc. TDSR is actually good, CM (SSD) is silly but that's my view.

    Plot ratio revision, wait long long.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  7. #127
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    The only thing that can slow the rise now is if Govt announces much higher GLS supply for 2H2017.

    But in the short term, there will still be supply crunch coming right ahead.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Long time no update, look like moving again.

    For those high floor units, the peak price was 1.75m on May 13. How much is valuation now? Did you see your neighbor pop champagne after knowing his current valuation. U will not find buyer paying such money anymore, anyway your investment property is not for sale, only for keeping.
    Last edited by walkthetiger; 05-06-17 at 08:06.
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    I don't make blank assumptions. The selling price agreed for enbloc do take into considerations the POTENTIAL for plot ratio revisions, even if these do not manifest. Any one of revisions in building height, use restrictions etc will also influence its POTENTIAL, and thus the price that enblockers are willing to accept and that developers are willing to pay.

    All the points I put for resales price increases, volume spike, vacancy falls (last 2 quarters), and rental stabilisation are backed by official stats.

    For me, I do not buy old enbloc potential properties (silly me) and so I could only speculate based on assumptions and presumptions. But I have visited a multi-gen unit of HUDC where a pair of grandparent lived with several children, a son-in-law, plus grandchildren. When it was enblocced, the daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren went back to their HDB. One of the spouse (single name) bought a resales large private to house their family, and one of the other unmarried child bought a new rental property. They are keeping options open for the other few family members, but all the properties are in single name, why?

    I just know that such movements remove supply for sales and rental from the market, regardless of whether they already have existing or are able to downgrade to HDB resales. Whether they are the majority or minority, who knows?

    In any case, if you distrust my assumptions and presumptions, which are what they are (no official stats will ever report these), then all you have to do is wait.

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...l-appreciation

    I have been speculating about enbloc effect on revival of market since Oct 2015.
    You are entitled to speculate for all you want.

    Look, let look at the big picture alright?

    You have bought, vested, I am also vested. So do many people here.

    You are buying more, I am also buying more. So do many people here.

    The difference?

    Your model model is probably with 100% weightage on speculation. My buying model 0% speculation, 100% value based. Other people have their own models.

    All I am saying is, today there are value-buys out there, without having to resort to speculation. It is a matter of "is it the right timing to buy more?", "can I trust this market?".

    Laguna said "let's see the take up rate of Stirling Road", he (or she?) wanted to see fact.

    hopeful asked "what is the impact of enbloc to value/price of surrounding properties?". He wants to be able to calculate, he wants fact.

    I don't think you understand the mechanics of an enbloc. There is no assumption of plot ratio revision when developers bid.

    CM, this is not new. I suggest you review the historical, what had happened to the market when the government removed previous CM imposed in 1990s.

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by walkthetiger View Post
    For those high floor units, the peak price was 1.75m on May 13. How much is valuation now? Did you see your neighbor pop champagne after knowing his current valuation. U will not find buyer paying such money anymore, anyway your investment property is not for sale, only for keeping.
    If I am not wrong, most rent out their unit, cash out buy another for self stay like me.

    1.75m or not sell also cannot buy.

    If you notice, the resale are very limited, if anyone sell better buy now.

    Love the place also for the food, 5 am in the morning you can just walk to the hawker centre for breakfast after midnight can go 24 hours coffeee shop at the MRT.





    Want Thai food can walk to Golden Mile.
    Last edited by Arcachon; 05-06-17 at 09:22.

  11. #131
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  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Long time no update, look like moving again.

    from the data posted, can obviously see price have moderated (592 sft Aug 2016 905k, may 2017 878k higher floor.) so thats why i say price have dropped.
    weak holders or those that need to sell, have to lower prices to sell.
    but not to worry, only marginal drop.

  13. #133
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    I pretty much grew up in this area as my grandma lives around there. Studied at Hong Wen Primary around the corner before it moved. Thanks for sharing. Love this place, so much memories.

    It's funny how all these memories affected our future decision to invest in that area D7 as well.

  14. #134
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    Glad to see so many of us still around talking about property. Still invested in properties but with diversification of investment since garment's implementation of the string of cooling measures. Tenants and Rental have been kind to me so far. I believe location plays apart.

  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    Glad to see so many of us still around talking about property. Still invested in properties but with diversification of investment since garment's implementation of the string of cooling measures. Tenants and Rental have been kind to me so far. I believe location plays apart.

    ya...me too, to see you still come live to here and few others
    and also Chestnut

    short of BJ21..but I am in touch with him in Facebook....


    seems like property market has turned around with all present..but the heat level is far below years back

  16. #136
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    My model is 25% speculation, 75% based on existing utility value. 75% of the full value of what I go for can be realised immediately without speculation.

    When the full value of something is apparent, one will be paying full value as well.

    I am not speculating into the enbloc market where there is huge profits so will leave it to the speculators. My personal belief is not everything will be fully apparent despite our best efforts.

    For example, we have no way of predicting changes such as these which easily change the game by 20%

    https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/circulars/2000/apr/dc00-08

    When is the next revision? Who knows? But as long as one is vested, the chance will be there, and it will grow over the years.

    So my strategy is 25% speculation for the very long haul (20 years+++), and 75% based on current immediate value (to me). Another of my belief for property is, what is of great value to one person (for example, parents' locality, schools, workplace) is of low or no value to some others.

    For each his game, run your own track.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hakuho View Post
    You are entitled to speculate for all you want.

    Look, let look at the big picture alright?

    You have bought, vested, I am also vested. So do many people here.

    You are buying more, I am also buying more. So do many people here.

    The difference?

    Your model model is probably with 100% weightage on speculation. My buying model 0% speculation, 100% value based. Other people have their own models.

    All I am saying is, today there are value-buys out there, without having to resort to speculation. It is a matter of "is it the right timing to buy more?", "can I trust this market?".

    Laguna said "let's see the take up rate of Stirling Road", he (or she?) wanted to see fact.

    hopeful asked "what is the impact of enbloc to value/price of surrounding properties?". He wants to be able to calculate, he wants fact.

    I don't think you understand the mechanics of an enbloc. There is no assumption of plot ratio revision when developers bid.

    CM, this is not new. I suggest you review the historical, what had happened to the market when the government removed previous CM imposed in 1990s.
    Last edited by Kelonguni; 05-06-17 at 10:38.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  17. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna View Post
    ya...me too, to see you still come live to here and few others
    and also Chestnut

    short of BJ21..but I am in touch with him in Facebook....


    seems like property market has turned around with all present..but the heat level is far below years back
    The Fun has just begun.

  18. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    The Fun has just begun.
    Fun can be both ways...up with cooling measures or more GLS coming soon or
    Down....when there is job loss and recession.....

  19. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna View Post
    Fun can be both ways...up with cooling measures or more GLS coming soon or
    Down....when there is job loss and recession.....
    I see more up than down, with all the crazy people destroying thing we need to produce more.

    http://www.sixdaywarproject.org/

    When the going gets tough, the tough get going.

    Pilbara boom to bust for millionaire property brothers Ryan and Morgan Crawford

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/pilba...-ng-b88493300z

    As guarantors for Niche Residential Pty Ltd, ANZ claimed the brothers took out a $560,000 loan in 2012, which was used to buy an $800,000 three-bedroom, one-bathroom property in South Hedland.
    Landgate records show that property was sold in September last year for $79,000, with the bank allegedly collecting just $49,600 at settlement.
    ANZ claimed in 2013, Morgan Crawford borrowed $920,000 for a $1.25 million three-bedroom, one-bathroom house, again in South Hedland, which sold for $205,000 last year.

    We are peanut compare to Ang Mo.
    Last edited by Arcachon; 05-06-17 at 11:09.

  20. #140
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  21. #141
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    It was certainly a very property market when I join here in 2008. It is good to know that there are still an avid property group engaging in heated discussion. Had been focusing in equity and bonds since the cooling measures. Divested some of them to take profit and looking for new opportunities. Any suggestions? @Chestnut: I did not retire 3 years ago as there was a higher calling from my top management. Still working....
    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna View Post
    ya...me too, to see you still come live to here and few others
    and also Chestnut

    short of BJ21..but I am in touch with him in Facebook....


    seems like property market has turned around with all present..but the heat level is far below years back

  22. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    My model is 25% speculation, 75% based on existing utility value. 75% of the full value of what I go for can be realised immediately without speculation.

    When the full value of something is apparent, one will be paying full value as well.

    I am not speculating into the enbloc market where there is huge profits so will leave it to the speculators. My personal belief is not everything will be fully apparent despite our best efforts.

    For example, we have no way of predicting changes such as these which easily change the game by 20%

    https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/circulars/2000/apr/dc00-08

    When is the next revision? Who knows? But as long as one is vested, the chance will be there, and it will grow over the years.

    So my strategy is 25% speculation for the very long haul (20 years+++), and 75% based on current immediate value (to me). Another of my belief for property is, what is of great value to one person (for example, parents' locality, schools, workplace) is of low or no value to some others.

    For each his game, run your own track.
    When a pricing model is based on 25% speculation 75% value/fact, what is the implication to the capital deployed?

    For a capital deployment of $500 k over a purchase price of $1 mil, $125 k (25% of $500 k) is deployed based on speculation.

    Then the question of "so what if the speculation turned out to be correct?" Are you the only beneficiary? Is there an edge over other investors who bought?

    In other words, let's say another investor has bought a similar $1 mil property at the SAME time as you but his pricing model is devoid of speculation, are you better off than him?

    The answer is clearly "no".

    Unless what is being speculated is clearly proprietary, for example an insider info of an impending enbloc.

  23. #143
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    This is not an academic problem sum. Not everything can be counted to dollars and cents.


    Quote Originally Posted by Hakuho View Post
    When a pricing model is based on 25% speculation 75% value/fact, what is the implication to the capital deployed?

    For a capital deployment of $500 k over a purchase price of $1 mil, $125 k (25% of $500 k) is deployed based on speculation.

    Then the question of "so what if the speculation turned out to be correct?" Are you the only beneficiary? Is there an edge over other investors who bought?

    In other words, let's say another investor has bought a similar $1 mil property at the SAME time as you but his pricing model is devoid of speculation, are you better off than him?

    The answer is clearly "no".

    Unless what is being speculated is clearly proprietary, for example an insider info of an impending enbloc.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  24. #144
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    Great for you brother. Good to have you back.

    Indeed equities and bonds had a great run these couple of years. Should still be positive going forward although there are lots of uncertainties.

    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    It was certainly a very property market when I join here in 2008. It is good to know that there are still an avid property group engaging in heated discussion. Had been focusing in equity and bonds since the cooling measures. Divested some of them to take profit and looking for new opportunities. Any suggestions? @Chestnut: I did not retire 3 years ago as there was a higher calling from my top management. Still working....
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  25. #145
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    Profit was great from equities and bonds. What other opportunities? My friend is looking for a 3-bedder condo in the city fringe for own stay (preference such as near mrt) with a budget of $1.5mil. Any recommendation?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Great for you brother. Good to have you back.

    Indeed equities and bonds had a great run these couple of years. Should still be positive going forward although there are lots of uncertainties.

  26. #146
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    All the champions and Old Bird huating.. Wonder where is JLRX. amk and 'Devil Plate' (hope i remember the name well).. and of course our Jgate spokesman....

  27. #147
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    Investing in Sg property if just looking into it as a single investment instrument then it is not holistic.
    There are few major worrying macro-economy factors in the perhaps short to medium terms
    1. "One Belt, One Road" impact on Sg
    2. Pulling out of MNC from Sg as cost of operations are high
    3. Debts of the big countries like China, US, Europe
    4. Long overdue correction of equity markets
    5. Raising Interest rates

  28. #148
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    Do you think it is possible for Queenstown area to have this pricing level? Clementi might have but a little out of city fringe.

    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    Profit was great from equities and bonds. What other opportunities? My friend is looking for a 3-bedder condo in the city fringe for own stay (preference such as near mrt) with a budget of $1.5mil. Any recommendation?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  29. #149
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  30. #150
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    Yeah I just surveyed a little, and it seems both areas have 3bedders with this budget. Try Queens Peak and maybe Trilinq (not that close to MRT).
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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