Any Fundamental to Support the Current Run-Away GLS/Enbloc Pricees

[Laguna]

The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market

I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more

Your contribution please

[anythingwhatever]

The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market

I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more

Your contribution please

As discussed here:

http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...nce?highlight=

[Arcachon]

The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market

I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more

Your contribution please

Where are all your Data from.

Looking at the above most cannot hold water.

[tonymontana]

rental already at a low, don't think it can go too much lower. incoming supply pipeline will gradually taper off next few years.
barring any major macroeconomic shocks, to me it's ok to start looking around. maybe a bargain may present itself?
whatever it is, if in doubt (either of the market recovery, or of one's ability to hold) stay away. better to be safe than sorry.

[proud owner]

The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market

I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more

Your contribution please

Like you, I cannot find a reason to 100 pct convince me Its Time to Move in...

Look at the new launches, selling like hot cakes

Look at the FH Landed in D10, especially the Semi Ds and Detached houses, activities are definitely picking up. What is it they know that i dont?

Some say, HK has as many cooling measures, and is still going up - TRUE
Coming from a banking background myself, i know banks have started moving their activities from SG to HK. So justifiable that HK is more ex than us


Some say, Citizenship gate will re-open soon.
This gate is never closed, just left ajar. But many feel that it will be open wide soon.
Possible.

Rental continues to fall, or at best, stable for now (at a low level)

Pent up demand? I am not so sure man...

i can only think it is because of the relaxing of "DRAWDOWN ON EQUITIES" that prompted many to make use of it and move into the market again.

[Hakuho]

The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market

I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more

Your contribution please

Economy - Weak, no bright spots. Likely to be weaker before stronger. No fundamental to support the property market optimism

Inflation - Not as benign as the authority wants us to believe

Interest rate - Marginally higher

Property Market - Not ruling out a buoyant private property market with an economy in doldrums (prob 0.6)

Property Rental - Not meaningful returns

Enbloc/GLS Impact - Enbloc Impact is greater, millionaires created. GLS creating an impression of price running away

New Launch - Selling hot at benchmark pricing, creating value purchasing opportunity in CCR

Sales Volume - Higher than last year. Still below the number of new citizens (20,000 py), new households (25,000 py)

TDSR - Foresee to be permanent

CM (ABSD) - Reduce the velocity of buying but does not deter. Revision down ruling out

CM (SSD) - Drive buyers to new launch, deter (at the moment) investment purchase in resale market

Developer - Buy high sell higher. The market setup because of CM (SSD) favours this approach

CM (Developer) - Enhancement ruling out

HDB - 1st Generation buyer still seeing good profit

Sustainability - Sustainable when we see pick up in resale volume, more enbloc

What if HK property crash - Foresee temporary effect

What if Dow crash - All bets are off

[hopeful]

what has changed between the purchased of Eco and now ?
check and re-check assumptions.

[star]

Stock market has run away prices it is time property market follow too.

[Fiona2004]

Economy - Weak, no bright spots. Likely to be weaker before stronger. No fundamental to support the property market optimism

Inflation - Not as benign as the authority wants us to believe

Interest rate - Marginally higher

Property Market - Not ruling out a buoyant private property market with an economy in doldrums (prob 0.6)

Property Rental - Not meaningful returns

Enbloc/GLS Impact - Enbloc Impact is greater, millionaires created. GLS creating an impression of price running away

New Launch - Selling hot at benchmark pricing, creating value purchasing opportunity in CCR

Sales Volume - Higher than last year. Still below the number of new citizens (20,000 py), new households (25,000 py)

TDSR - Foresee to be permanent

CM (ABSD) - Reduce the velocity of buying but does not deter. Revision down ruling out

CM (SSD) - Drive buyers to new launch, deter (at the moment) investment purchase in resale market

Developer - Buy high sell higher. The market setup because of CM (SSD) favours this approach

CM (Developer) - Enhancement ruling out

HDB - 1st Generation buyer still seeing good profit

Sustainability - Sustainable when we see pick up in resale volume, more enbloc

What if HK property crash - Foresee temporary effect

What if Dow crash - All bets are off

can you elaborate why "CM (SSD) - Drive buyers to new launch, deter (at the moment) investment purchase in resale market"? thanks.

[Hakuho]

what has changed between the purchased of Eco and now ?
check and re-check assumptions.

I assumed that you are referring to CM (SSD).

For eCO I don't know. According to caveats lodged this year, 7 resales have taken place, maybe 100 put up for sale.

Are you happy with the rate or pace of resale?

And please don't ask me to proof the assumption, haha. It is an assumption, my view. Not a Law in Physics. And of course it can be wrong, I am happy to hear other interpretations.

[Hakuho]

can you elaborate why "CM (SSD) - Drive buyers to new launch, deter (at the moment) investment purchase in resale market"? thanks.

In making a decision to buy, a (rational) buyer normally should first assess the downside risks. Most downside risks can be measured. He can't do much about the upside potential.

So, he made sure that his downside is protected and hope that he read the market correctly to reap future benefits.

What are the downside risks in buying a property? (In this context, I will leave out the subject of leveraging)

The main one is obviously an assessment of the market condition, "is the market bottoming?" someone has asked. And other risks related to financing (maybe he will be laid off etc), well-being (maybe face with a major illness with huge medical bills etc), the known unknown risks I written earlier. Etc etc...

All these can happen within the SSD window, used to be 4 years now improved to 3 years. If he assessed the market condition wrongly, not a disaster as long as there is provisions set aside. But other risks are pretty much beyond his control, and sometimes expectation.

The SSD penalty is huge. And don't forget in buying the property for investment, he has paid substantial ABSD earlier. There are cases/records of people having to pay the SSD, even for within the 1st year of purchase. So, the threat of the overhanging penalty is real.

So, what will he do? To mitigate the downside risks he will opt to buy new launch. Naturally.

The time period required to build the project coincides with the SSD window, more importantly the progressive outlays are easier until TOP etc.

Of course I am speaking of a buyer in general and it may not apply to everyone. Especially it seems not to apply to the buyers in this forum, kudos haha.

[maisonjai]

The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
4. Foreign developers into the local market

Your contribution please

Is the overcapacity time bomb in China going to blow soon? If it goes off, 2008 Lemon Bros season again?
Local medium small developers will squeezed & become land poor.

[Fiona2004]

thanks a lot for your detailed explanation! appreciate it.

[stl67]

In making a decision to buy, a (rational) buyer normally should first assess the downside risks. Most downside risks can be measured. He can't do much about the upside potential.

So, he made sure that his downside is protected and hope that he read the market correctly to reap future benefits.

What are the downside risks in buying a property? (In this context, I will leave out the subject of leveraging)

The main one is obviously an assessment of the market condition, "is the market bottoming?" someone has asked. And other risks related to financing (maybe he will be laid off etc), well-being (maybe face with a major illness with huge medical bills etc), the known unknown risks I written earlier. Etc etc...

All these can happen within the SSD window, used to be 4 years now improved to 3 years. If he assessed the market condition wrongly, not a disaster as long as there is provisions set aside. But other risks are pretty much beyond his control, and sometimes expectation.

The SSD penalty is huge. And don't forget in buying the property for investment, he has paid substantial ABSD earlier. There are cases/records of people having to pay the SSD, even for within the 1st year of purchase. So, the threat of the overhanging penalty is real.

So, what will he do? To mitigate the downside risks he will opt to buy new launch. Naturally.

The time period required to build the project coincides with the SSD window, more importantly the progressive outlays are easier until TOP etc.

Of course I am speaking of a buyer in general and it may not apply to everyone. Especially it seems not to apply to the buyers in this forum, kudos haha.

Wah very good explaination.

[Arcachon]

Is the overcapacity time bomb in China going to blow soon? If it goes off, 2008 Lemon Bros season again?
Local medium small developers will squeezed & become land poor.

They already export their overcapacity oversea.

Lemon Bros create paper call mortgage-backed securities (MBS) whereas the Chinese bring their money out from under their bed.

[hopeful]

I assumed that you are referring to CM (SSD).

For eCO I don't know. According to caveats lodged this year, 7 resales have taken place, maybe 100 put up for sale.

Are you happy with the rate or pace of resale?

And please don't ask me to proof the assumption, haha. It is an assumption, my view. Not a Law in Physics. And of course it can be wrong, I am happy to hear other interpretations.

the question was directed at Laguna. in a televised interview and widely reported in the news, she gave reasons for getting eCo.
it seems that her reasons was kind of off. and if memory served me right, sometime later, she posted she disposed off 1 unit (i dont know whether it is eCo or some other unit)

so if her assumptions were kind of off then, what about now?
that's why asked her to check and re-check her assumptions.

not sure how long you have been lurking before you joined, back then the hot topics were j gateway (king of OCR) and punggol watertown (king of punggol), which set OCR psf records. now that j gateway has TOP, but so quiet, no ringo33 nor his detractors to liven up.

[star]

Question:
Will current high bids have effect on nearby resale condo prices? Let's say new launch is at $1300psf and is 40% higher price than nearby resale condo. Will nearby resale condo price increase too? If yes by how many percent?

[Arcachon]

Question:
Will current high bids have effect on nearby resale condo prices? Let's say new launch is at $1300psf and is 40% higher price than nearby resale condo. Will nearby resale condo price increase too? If yes by how many percent?

Willing buyer, willing seller.

Back in the 90's when I sell my 4 room HDB, HDB valuation S$ 195K, I sell S$285K. The buyer then did another valuation at S$ 235K.

Buyer needs to find ((285-235)+(20%x235))K cash to buy my unit.

A lot of Data showing but how many can see.

[2824]

think more land will be released in H2 GLS to help bring down land prices. Seems like HK / China Developers are very hungry for land, but local developers are still relatively quiet. Dunno which party is correct??

[Arcachon]

think more land will be released in H2 GLS to help bring down land prices. Seems like HK / China Developers are very hungry for land, but local developers are still relatively quiet. Dunno which party is correct??

Someone have to foot the bill for the infrastructure spends, you guess who will pay the Bill.

[hopeful]

Question:
Will current high bids have effect on nearby resale condo prices? Let's say new launch is at $1300psf and is 40% higher price than nearby resale condo. Will nearby resale condo price increase too? If yes by how many percent?

try this exercise.
if you are a buyer, how much would you buy it for ?
if you are a seller, how much would you sell it for ?
the actual results will surprise you, it will not differ much from the exercise. all humans are greedy and fearful, only a matter of degree, and since it is a bell curve, will follow the normal distribution.

[Laguna]

Hi Hopeful...thanks for still remembering that I bought an unit of eCO years back. eCO, basically was a small investment to me. The unit was rather nice and efficient. (yup, it is, just collected the keys early this year). At that time, first two units of properties did not attract ABSD, so just took one first. Shortly after, second unit caught the 7%, miscalculated.

Buying and selling of properties to me, it is just re-balancing of investment portfolio to put money to the best place to work. If I can get 10% on return on others, why should I put in property with limited upside and just net of 1.5%, bear in mind, I still need to hunt for tenants, cleaning up the place, please the tenants...entertain them for all sorts of calls...

[Laguna]

the question was directed at Laguna. in a televised interview and widely reported in the news, she gave reasons for getting eCo.
it seems that her reasons was kind of off. and if memory served me right, sometime later, she posted she disposed off 1 unit (i dont know whether it is eCo or some other unit)

so if her assumptions were kind of off then, what about now?
that's why asked her to check and re-check her assumptions.

not sure how long you have been lurking before you joined, back then the hot topics were j gateway (king of OCR) and punggol watertown (king of punggol), which set OCR psf records. now that j gateway has TOP, but so quiet, no ringo33 nor his detractors to liven up.

I took a look at property guru for WaterTown, it was sold like super hot cakes during CNY that year, running at $1,600 to $1,800 psf..now all underwater. And j gateway asking at $1,800 to $1,900, do you think there would be takers?

The old birds here seeing through at least 2-4 property cycles and learnt hard. To buy or not is individual decision....

[tonymontana]

All these can happen within the SSD window, used to be 4 years now improved to 3 years. If he assessed the market condition wrongly, not a disaster as long as there is provisions set aside. But other risks are pretty much beyond his control, and sometimes expectation.

The SSD penalty is huge. And don't forget in buying the property for investment, he has paid substantial ABSD earlier. There are cases/records of people having to pay the SSD, even for within the 1st year of purchase. So, the threat of the overhanging penalty is real.

So, what will he do? To mitigate the downside risks he will opt to buy new launch. Naturally.

The time period required to build the project coincides with the SSD window, more importantly the progressive outlays are easier until TOP etc.
.

I don't get "mitigate downside by buying new". New launches are priced at a premium (so far I've seen). Those that are priced at a seeming bargain to current resale units on the market are the worst units in the development.

I would buy old. I find there is better value in older developments.

As for the SSD, it is a move to reduce the disincentive when selling. One is penalized less if one needs to sell (for whatever reason). One can say this encourages investors to step in to the market, but I find this a somewhat tenuous link.

[hopeful]

laguna, buying a property is actually simple in theory, it is the execution that is so difficult
timing and location, of the 2, timing is the more important one

generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)

when people buy new launches, what they are buying is hopes and dreams. nothing is set in stone, the sky is the limit for capital appreciation ( in their mind)
when people buy resale, what they are buying is reality. rental income and expenses are known quantity.
people being what they are, they prefer to imagine they are property experts, making millions in capital gains.
is it a wonder they prefer new launches as compared to resales?

[tonymontana]

the question was directed at Laguna. in a televised interview and widely reported in the news, she gave reasons for getting eCo.
it seems that her reasons was kind of off. and if memory served me right, sometime later, she posted she disposed off 1 unit (i dont know whether it is eCo or some other unit)

so if her assumptions were kind of off then, what about now?
that's why asked her to check and re-check her assumptions.

not sure how long you have been lurking before you joined, back then the hot topics were j gateway (king of OCR) and punggol watertown (king of punggol), which set OCR psf records. now that j gateway has TOP, but so quiet, no ringo33 nor his detractors to liven up.

It was really interesting and entertaining to read through the jgateway thread , and to actually see how predictions have panned out today.

[tonymontana]

think more land will be released in H2 GLS to help bring down land prices. Seems like HK / China Developers are very hungry for land, but local developers are still relatively quiet. Dunno which party is correct??

I should certainly hope not given that we are now in an oversupply of upcoming new homes, especially this year. Hopefully URA keeps a tight and controlled rein, even though they may feel like striking while the iron is hot.

[star]

Normally for the past few cycles if u see stock market up property also up. But this one is suppressed by CMs...

[Laguna]

It was really interesting and entertaining to read through the jgateway thread , and to actually see how predictions have panned out today.

what was it panned out today?

[Laguna]

Those people been to this forum since the 2000s, will know, this forum is not as active as those days