Any Fundamental to Support the Current Run-Away GLS/Enbloc Pricees

**hopeful** · 06-06-17, 11:24

Originally Posted by Arcachon

Only know got 3 more ten years to go and soon more will know how many ten years they have.

Tell me if you got all the money, what will you do.

what is it with the 10 years ? why only 3 more?

seems to me like there are lots of 10 years going around. eg 1991-2000, 1992-2001, 1993-2002, 1994-2003, 1995-2004 etc.
based on lifespan, there should be like 79 1-year, 75 5-year, 70 10-years, 60 20-years, 50 30-years, 30 50-years,20 60-year, 10 70-year.

you often say people see either glass half-empty or glass half-full and you seems to be the think positive kind. so dont limit to 3 10-year ok. if you are 50 years old, should still have 20 10-years left, not just 3. think positive.

**Kelonguni** · 06-06-17, 11:34

Friend, you are incredibly young. Maybe not the most polite but very direct.

You are probably right to state that the mass property buying group shrinks perhaps in 2016, 2017 and the way forward.

But people into their 50s and 60s till 70s and 80s will still generally continue to hold onto their properties purchased when they were in 20s, 30s or 40s. They would not and could not simply let go of their properties because they have passed the age to buy. Just examine Japan with much lower immigration (I speculate). The ageing population still requires a growing number of houses.

Also, the successful investors like Chestnut bro and other businessmen will continue to have access to the markets, although admittedly a minority.

The next most important question to ask is, if the annual build of 25,000 HDB (all sizes) plus less than a total stock of some 10+K private properties sufficient to cater for a background nett growth of 70,000 people every year (just based on your stats)?

Originally Posted by Hakuho

By the time the 2017 statistics is published, the age group 25 - 49 (universally recognised as the "property purchasing age group") will have shrunk by about 31,000 (from proprietary model).

You can do your own calculation.

**hopeful** · 06-06-17, 11:42

Originally Posted by Arcachon

Long Long Time ago, Singapore got only one university, not many got a good paying job.

Not many know how the rich become richer.

Information is limited to only a few fortunate people.

If you know I get my first million by just buying a PC and wait for 4 years what will you do.

buy a PC (southbank) in 2006? and wait for 4 years get your first million in 2010, additional 7 years later, in 2017, got additional million? or is it still the same 1 million?

how about the PC (terrasse) in 2012? 5 years has passed already. already get additional million?

**Laguna** · 06-06-17, 12:46

Originally Posted by hopeful

buy a PC (southbank) in 2006? and wait for 4 years get your first million in 2010, additional 7 years later, in 2017, got additional million? or is it still the same 1 million?

how about the PC (terrasse) in 2012? 5 years has passed already. already get additional million?

Hello, Hopeful....great to see you back.

What is your view of the current run?

**Hakuho** · 06-06-17, 12:55

Originally Posted by Kelonguni

Friend, you are incredibly young. Maybe not the most polite but very direct.

You are probably right to state that the mass property buying group shrinks perhaps in 2016, 2017 and the way forward.

But people into their 50s and 60s till 70s and 80s will still generally continue to hold onto their properties purchased when they were in 20s, 30s or 40s. They would not and could not simply let go of their properties because they have passed the age to buy. Just examine Japan with much lower immigration (I speculate). The ageing population still requires a growing number of houses.

Also, the successful investors like Chestnut bro and other businessmen will continue to have access to the markets, although admittedly a minority.

The next most important question to ask is, if the annual build of 25,000 HDB (all sizes) plus less than a total stock of some 10+K private properties sufficient to cater for a background nett growth of 70,000 people every year (just based on your stats)?

Friend, nothing to do with being young or old. I think we should be able to accept all viewpoints without giving labels to whoever making them. If you feel offended by the assertiveness, my apologies.

Don't worry I am going away from this forum do something else, ahaha.

On your question, everyone has his own price/risk model, all I can say is buy selectively.

I also think an investor will need find the opportunity to reshuffle the portfolio if he sees the "new normal" of the ageing population. An active portfolio management approach.

The big size units are already affected by the household size getting smaller, they will be especially vulnerable to the population shift. I will not suggest a wholesale dumping approach but to weight in the possibility of enbloc also. The potential is there, probably greater than what most people think but I will not go into the details. Its a matter of time that this potential is discovered, provided that the market stays buoyant.

Zao

**Laguna** · 06-06-17, 13:01

Anyone knows what happen to the one bought Mt Sinai?
The one packed his parents, in-laws, dogs, his BIL and his family into one house ?

**Kelonguni** · 06-06-17, 14:03

No offense really. There was a time I asked the same questions you did and had the same thoughts you have.

Originally Posted by Hakuho

Friend, nothing to do with being young or old. I think we should be able to accept all viewpoints without giving labels to whoever making them. If you feel offended by the assertiveness, my apologies.

Don't worry I am going away from this forum do something else, ahaha.

On your question, everyone has his own price/risk model, all I can say is buy selectively.

I also think an investor will need find the opportunity to reshuffle the portfolio if he sees the "new normal" of the ageing population. An active portfolio management approach.

The big size units are already affected by the household size getting smaller, they will be especially vulnerable to the population shift. I will not suggest a wholesale dumping approach but to weight in the possibility of enbloc also. The potential is there, probably greater than what most people think but I will not go into the details. Its a matter of time that this potential is discovered, provided that the market stays buoyant.

Zao

**Kelonguni** · 06-06-17, 14:05

Pretty sure he is still around. YoweTan.

Originally Posted by Laguna

Anyone knows what happen to the one bought Mt Sinai?
The one packed his parents, in-laws, dogs, his BIL and his family into one house ?

**anythingwhatever** · 06-06-17, 14:07

Originally Posted by Hakuho

Friend, nothing to do with being young or old. I think we should be able to accept all viewpoints without giving labels to whoever making them. If you feel offended by the assertiveness, my apologies.

Don't worry I am going away from this forum do something else, ahaha.

On your question, everyone has his own price/risk model, all I can say is buy selectively.

I also think an investor will need find the opportunity to reshuffle the portfolio if he sees the "new normal" of the ageing population. An active portfolio management approach.

The big size units are already affected by the household size getting smaller, they will be especially vulnerable to the population shift. I will not suggest a wholesale dumping approach but to weight in the possibility of enbloc also. The potential is there, probably greater than what most people think but I will not go into the details. Its a matter of time that this potential is discovered, provided that the market stays buoyant.

Zao

Do come back often ya, fun to have you around haha...

**tonymontana** · 06-06-17, 14:43

Originally Posted by Laguna

Anyone knows what happen to the one bought Mt Sinai?
The one packed his parents, in-laws, dogs, his BIL and his family into one house ?

still around.
every now and then he appear to whack hillview.

**tanghao** · 06-06-17, 17:21

Wow, imagine the new launches are sold out in the next 6 quarters, resale shall rebound？

**anythingwhatever** · 06-06-17, 20:10

Originally Posted by tanghao

Wow, imagine the new launches are sold out in the next 6 quarters, resale shall rebound？

Word for Word... Got Copyleft.

Originally Posted by anythingwhatever

Wow, imagine the new launches are sold out in the next 6 quarters, resale shall rebound?

**Laguna** · 06-06-17, 21:22

Originally Posted by tonymontana

still around.
every now and then he appear to whack hillview.

ya...did a search of him...hardly active for quite sometime, seems like no posting this year.
Seems having problems

**proud owner** · 06-06-17, 22:24

For the first time after a long while, seeing old friends 'gathering' .... brings back some good memories...

HP65 Chestnut Laguna ....

indeed forum activities picking up ...

i do know ... on the landed front ... seeing quite a bit of activities ... in D10 .... large plot ....

though landed rental remain 'cheap' ....

**Arcachon** · 06-06-17, 22:49

Originally Posted by hopeful

what is it with the 10 years ? why only 3 more?

seems to me like there are lots of 10 years going around. eg 1991-2000, 1992-2001, 1993-2002, 1994-2003, 1995-2004 etc.
based on lifespan, there should be like 79 1-year, 75 5-year, 70 10-years, 60 20-years, 50 30-years, 30 50-years,20 60-year, 10 70-year.

you often say people see either glass half-empty or glass half-full and you seems to be the think positive kind. so dont limit to 3 10-year ok. if you are 50 years old, should still have 20 10-years left, not just 3. think positive.

My pastor in France told us, every morning when he open his eye he thanks God for giving him another day.

Trust me when you know when is your last day, you will live every day as if it is your last.

**Arcachon** · 06-06-17, 22:50

Originally Posted by hopeful

buy a PC (southbank) in 2006? and wait for 4 years get your first million in 2010, additional 7 years later, in 2017, got additional million? or is it still the same 1 million?

how about the PC (terrasse) in 2012? 5 years has passed already. already get additional million?

Every month increase by 6800 after I buy Terrasse, the next million coming soon.

**Laguna** · 07-06-17, 11:26

Originally Posted by Hakuho

Don't worry I am going away from this forum do something else, ahaha.

Zao

Hi Zao
Sincerely hope you stay, I enjoy reading your postings.
Kindly consider

**patches** · 07-06-17, 13:26

Originally Posted by Laguna

Investing in Sg property if just looking into it as a single investment instrument then it is not holistic.
There are few major worrying macro-economy factors in the perhaps short to medium terms
1. "One Belt, One Road" impact on Sg
2. Pulling out of MNC from Sg as cost of operations are high
3. Debts of the big countries like China, US, Europe
4. Long overdue correction of equity markets
5. Raising Interest rates

Foreign investors to pour nearly $1 trillion into emerging markets in 2017: IIF

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKBN18X1NJ

"Non-resident capital inflows to emerging markets should reach $970 billion this year, a 35 percent increase from 2016, the Institute of International Finance said in a report released on Tuesday."

This could be one of the major catalysts this year from a macro-level picture.

**Hakuho** · 07-06-17, 20:49

Originally Posted by Laguna

Hi Zao
Sincerely hope you stay, I enjoy reading your postings.
Kindly consider

Hi Laguna,

I am happy just to lurk but will see how things go?

Meanwhile, hope you enjoy the clip.

(Hakuho Sho winning the Summer Natsu 2017)
https://youtu.be/VtUfdZb0grw

**Laguna** · 07-06-17, 22:05

Originally Posted by Hakuho

Hi Laguna,

I am happy just to lurk but will see how things go?

Meanwhile, hope you enjoy the clip.

(Hakuho Sho winning the Summer Natsu 2017)
https://youtu.be/VtUfdZb0grw

Thanks for the clip. Hope to see you back

**Amber Woods** · 08-06-17, 09:46

Let us hope that the etiquette shown by Hakuho and Laguna will continue to be the standard for this forum.

Remark like 'waiting for durians to drop' by that French guy is not etiquette nor helpful even if he foolishly believe in putting all his money into property.

**indomie** · 08-06-17, 10:10

Originally Posted by Amber Woods

Let us hope that the etiquette shown by Hakuho and Laguna will continue to be the standard for this forum.

Remark like 'waiting for durians to drop' by that French guy is not etiquette nor helpful even if he foolishly believe in putting all his money into property.

I know whos that french guy...hahaha. But to be fair he merely suggesting those who are waiting to buy don't have to wait too long to buy. He never suggest those who don't need to buy to buy now

**hopeful** · 08-06-17, 10:35

Originally Posted by Laguna

Hello, Hopeful....great to see you back.

What is your view of the current run?

i (and many other people) saw storm clouds gathering in 2011-2012 and i said crash would happened in 2015-2016. what happened was a drizzle but the storm clouds remained. now there are more storm clouds gathering (see your first post).
we can't predict when there will be thunderstorm but the storm clouds are there.

i am not sure what others do when they see storm clouds, for myself, i will take shelter and not go out as i am a firm believer of "better be an hour early than a second late". perhaps other think they can venture out and get back to shelter before the storm arrive?

**hopeful** · 08-06-17, 10:44

Originally Posted by Arcachon

My pastor in France told us, every morning when he open his eye he thanks God for giving him another day.

Trust me when you know when is your last day, you will live every day as if it is your last.

following the forum etiquette rules, i will be more polite.
thank you for the advice, but somebody once said "in G i trust, the rest i verify".
and so back to your question? how many 10-year do you have. seems from your answer, everyday is the start of a new 10-year.
normally a person will spend his last day with his most loved ones. so i thank you once again on behalf of forummers here that you regarded us as your most beloved as you live your last day (every day) in the forum with us forummers.

**hopeful** · 08-06-17, 10:59

Originally Posted by Arcachon

Every month increase by 6800 after I buy Terrasse, the next million coming soon.

hi there once again,
6800 takes 147 months (or ~12 years),it looks to me that the rate of increase kind of slow down just a little bit.
from 2006 to 2010, ~500k to ~1.5mio, impressive rate of increase.
from 2012 to 2017, ~net equity (~2.xx) mio, takes ~12 years to increase 50% ?
you have so kindly gave us a record of your property transactions.
can you be so kind once more as to give us a break down of the 6800 ? is it gross or net rental income?

**Arcachon** · 08-06-17, 11:00

Amen.

Life is too short to be affected by a few a b c alphabet join together to become words.

Have seen a lot of people who become very angry because of some spoken words also.

I can only pray for them to know how to be happy.

**indomie** · 08-06-17, 11:03

Originally Posted by hopeful

following the forum etiquette rules, i will be more polite.
thank you for the advice, but somebody once said "in G i trust, the rest i verify".
and so back to your question? how many 10-year do you have. seems from your answer, everyday is the start of a new 10-year.
normally a person will spend his last day with his most loved ones. so i thank you once again on behalf of forummers here that you regarded us as your most beloved as you live your last day (every day) in the forum with us forummers.

I have been pondering on this point too. Property investment is like taking vitamins. Its only effective when you are still young and healthy. When we are old and sick...its too late to take vitamins...we need medicine

**Kelonguni** · 08-06-17, 11:16

Some only consider the worst case scenario (the heaviest flooding storm).

Some only consider it as sunny all the time.

The best is to read the weather forecast and prepare accordingly. The storm will always come after a while but the sun will always come out thereafter. And no storm ever really drowns anyone in Singapore. Cannot hide in your home and use Internet all the time right, even though that is safer than going out.

**hopeful** · 08-06-17, 11:27

Originally Posted by Arcachon

Amen.

Life is too short to be affected by a few a b c alphabet join together to become words.

Have seen a lot of people who become very angry because of some spoken words also.

I can only pray for them to know how to be happy.

letters and words are very important.
i am pretty sure your family will be very angry and unhappy if you mis-spelt your spouse and child's name as "hopeful" in the the beneficiary in your CPF, your will and your insurance policies.
please explain to them that "Life is too short to be affected by a few a b c alphabet join together to become words."

**hopeful** · 08-06-17, 11:39

i am pretty sure that there exist property experts that can enter & exit properties at the turn of a dime, buy in the morning and sell in the same evening. but unfortunately i am not one. at least for me, buying and selling can take weeks to months. same for renting too.
hence i would rather be an hour early than a second late.
perhaps i am just plain unlucky or lousy. i am not sure about the other forummers here. do you all take weeks/months or just hours to complete?

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