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Thread: Why unemployment is the real killer in the property game

  1. #31
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    Wow minority the BIGGEST LIAR here is still around?

    minority,
    Since you are still around, why you refuse to answer my question to the allegation you made:

    Since Olam DIDN'T PAY ANY TAX on the "Capital Injection $" amount, and you disagree with me (that there is no reason to pay tax on capital injection $ amount like what PUB did), that means Are you telling us that Olam is WRONG and had avoided taxes by rigging (and cooked) its book (so that it can pay less tax)?


    I suppose you won't reply?
    Ha ha ha!
    Why should I reply to the BIGGEST LIAR like you here based on YOUR LIE and BULLSHIT and SMEARING (that everybody knows about here)?!

    Quote Originally Posted by minority View Post
    ur memory?? Give me a break. show some proof lah.. bull shit is very easy to call . and I called it.
    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    minority,
    Twist and turn again like 2-headed snake?

    FACT is, Olam DIDN'T PAY ANY TAX on the "Capital Injection $" amount!

    So, why should PUB pay ANY TAX on "Government Capital Injection $"?

    So, who is WRONG, PUB or Olam?
    Either Olam is avoiding taxes or PUB is paying additional unnecessary taxes?


    Which is true?

    I would say PUB is paying additional unnecessary taxes while Olam is perfectly clean!

    If you disagree with me, that means you are telling us that Olam is WRONG and had avoided taxes by rigging its book?
    Last edited by teddybear; 24-06-17 at 23:20.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie View Post
    If SG follow US in lifting interest rate....then SG dollar will shoot to the sky. This will be detrimental to SG competitiveness.
    Singapore got no control over its interest rate. Singapore controls its exchange rate through a basket of currency and allows free movement of capital. As such, it cannot control interest rate. This is known as impossible trinity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    How about China funds?

    What will be the response from China despite their worsening debt situation?

    CMs are a source of Govt tax plus they limit the local debt situation from worsening (downgrade from Moody), so I highly doubt that tweaking of tax measures will be undertaken. Loosening of LTV or playing around with TDSR applications further maybe.
    Not sure exactly what relevance is China Funds to the topic. Assuming you mean China funds inflow into Singapore, I am not sure whether they are denominated in RMB or USD. Singapore companies do accept trades in RMB, not sure about properties developers, M&E, architects and construction companies though.

    The China Debt Problem... ~sigh~... don't know how to answer... there are better analysts than me that still get it wrong. The problem is that China data is semi-opaque. How to have good prediction from bad data? Right now, I am on the betting side that China will manage the debt problem away and the global economy will not have a China Money Flu.

    As for CMs, depends on your outlook. There seems to be a social media persistence of distrust in government policies that says that revenue sources are sacred cows and will not be touched. I don't support that stance, when the current easy money regime stops and interest rates return to historical values, the government will lift the CMs to support the property market. Right now, the resales market is reflecting the true demand/supply of housing units, new launches are where all the gambling is being done and thus stays unrealistic. It is easy to gamble with other people money. Once that stops coming, a reality check will happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie View Post
    If SG follow US in lifting interest rate....then SG dollar will shoot to the sky. This will be detrimental to SG competitiveness.
    Someone has answered that question. However, I want to answer it in a way that is simpler for people to understand how interest rate and exchange rates works in Singapore.

    Let's say a Singapore firm wants to buy some expensive machinery from China. How to the firm pay for it? Like when you go to holiday, the firm needs to exchange the Singapore dollars that it earns from the local market to a currency acceptable by the Chinese machinery maker. Let says that the Chinese company wants only USD because it needs USD to pay other things in the global market.

    So the firm needs to exchange SGD to USD. How many USD the firm gets is dependent on the exchange rate, ie 1 SGD can only buy 70 cents of USD or 50 cents of USD and so on. That is controlled by MAS as MAS buys and sells currencies from its accounts (the so call currency basket) to keep the the demand of USD and supply of USD balance at the point it wants. Ie if SGD starts dropping below the balance point, MAS starts buying SGD and selling USD to reduce the supply available and prop up SGD exchange rate.

    Now, if the machinery is very expensive and the firm cannot pay out of its cash, then it need to borrow. Just like property investors borrow to buy investment properties. Borrowing means that it needs to pay interest. Since the firm needs to buy USD to pay the chinese maker, it borrows directly in USD to avoid incurring the cost of changing borrowed money in SGD to USD (ie money changers margins). However, the loan maker will want the firm to pay the current US FED interest rates , otherwise why lend to the Singapore firm, might as well put in the Fed account and earn the interest.

    This is why Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates because most of the global trade is in USD and Singapore banks and companies borrow a lot in USD. So SOR follows Fed rates though it is not a 100% coupling.

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    Sorry again, please do a search on news about China crackdown on companies like WANDA. LECO and so on which are investing in overseas markets in their specific domain. The Chinese government is cracking down on all potential outflow not directly supported or wish by CCCP.

    The keyword is "desired by CCCP". Private initiatives are strongly discouraged.

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    Money like water will flow to the lowest resistance path, you can restrict the flow you can stop the flow.

    When you stop the flow, pressure builds up and up to a level, you still need to release the pressure.

    Just like how I get 660K then 750K from thin air.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatBurger View Post
    Sorry again, please do a search on news about China crackdown on companies like WANDA. LECO and so on which are investing in overseas markets in their specific domain. The Chinese government is cracking down on all potential outflow not directly supported or wish by CCCP.

    The keyword is "desired by CCCP". Private initiatives are strongly discouraged.
    Just hope this will wake them up.

    We may be free to design our lives, and sense of futility that can come from reading, say, world history, geology, or astronomy and realizing the fleeting nature of the entire human enterprise, but we are not free to change the underlying rules that determine what is real, the property cycle.

    In eternity everything is just beginning. It is a long winter ahead. Take Care Everyone.
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatBurger View Post
    Someone has answered that question. However, I want to answer it in a way that is simpler for people to understand how interest rate and exchange rates works in Singapore.

    Let's say a Singapore firm wants to buy some expensive machinery from China. How to the firm pay for it? Like when you go to holiday, the firm needs to exchange the Singapore dollars that it earns from the local market to a currency acceptable by the Chinese machinery maker. Let says that the Chinese company wants only USD because it needs USD to pay other things in the global market.

    So the firm needs to exchange SGD to USD. How many USD the firm gets is dependent on the exchange rate, ie 1 SGD can only buy 70 cents of USD or 50 cents of USD and so on. That is controlled by MAS as MAS buys and sells currencies from its accounts (the so call currency basket) to keep the the demand of USD and supply of USD balance at the point it wants. Ie if SGD starts dropping below the balance point, MAS starts buying SGD and selling USD to reduce the supply available and prop up SGD exchange rate.

    Now, if the machinery is very expensive and the firm cannot pay out of its cash, then it need to borrow. Just like property investors borrow to buy investment properties. Borrowing means that it needs to pay interest. Since the firm needs to buy USD to pay the chinese maker, it borrows directly in USD to avoid incurring the cost of changing borrowed money in SGD to USD (ie money changers margins). However, the loan maker will want the firm to pay the current US FED interest rates , otherwise why lend to the Singapore firm, might as well put in the Fed account and earn the interest.

    This is why Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates because most of the global trade is in USD and Singapore banks and companies borrow a lot in USD. So SOR follows Fed rates though it is not a 100% coupling.
    Wow, very well written, you could write for a money magazine.

    anyway here's a link to share;

    http://www.mortgagewise.sg/correlati...ed-funds-rate/

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by walkthetiger View Post
    Just hope this will wake them up.

    We may be free to design our lives, and sense of futility that can come from reading, say, world history, geology, or astronomy and realizing the fleeting nature of the entire human enterprise, but we are not free to change the underlying rules that determine what is real, the property cycle.

    In eternity everything is just beginning. It is a long winter ahead. Take Care Everyone.
    winter is ending, spring is coming.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by tonymontana View Post
    Wow, very well written, you could write for a money magazine.

    anyway here's a link to share;

    http://www.mortgagewise.sg/correlati...ed-funds-rate/
    Classical economy theory....I already burn the text book. Nowadays money are chasing yield.

  11. #41
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    People keeps saying property cycle. Show them the cycle but they refuse to believe.

    2009 to 2013 run up, and did not run to its max because of TDSR.

    2013-2017 trend down.

    What's coming up next?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  12. #42
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    What is a property cycle?
    Boom and Bust right?

    Why you only cite 2009 onwards? You too young to know what happened before that? Then Let me educate you:

    1984 : Peak
    1986 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
    1997 : Peak
    2005 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 8 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
    2007 : Peak
    2009 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
    2013 : Peak
    Then divergence occurs:
    2015 : CCR crash! (Is this the Trough already?)
    2017 : OCR still at peak price........
    20XX : OCR Trough (Peak to Trough ~ ??? years?) - I won't want to be the stupid goondu buying OCR property at THOUSAND YEARS historical peak price and wait for >10 years to see the price breakeven (like 1997-2007)! (Not when still need to pay 10% ABSD!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    People keeps saying property cycle. Show them the cycle but they refuse to believe.

    2009 to 2013 run up, and did not run to its max because of TDSR.

    2013-2017 trend down.

    What's coming up next?
    Last edited by teddybear; 26-06-17 at 15:45.

  13. #43
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    I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded.

    OCR opportunity not meant for you. Increase another 20% is still new thousand year record for you.

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    What is a property cycle?
    Boom and Bust right?

    Why you only cite 2009 onwards? You too young to know what happened before that? Then Let me educate you:

    1984 : Peak
    1986 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
    1997 : Peak
    2005 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 8 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
    2007 : Peak
    2009 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
    2013 : Peak
    Then divergence occurs:
    2015 : CCR crash! (Is this the Trough already?)
    2017 : OCR still at peak price........
    20XX : OCR Trough (Peak to Trough ~ ??? years?) - I won't want to be the stupid goondu buying OCR property at THOUSAND YEARS historical peak price and wait for >10 years to see the price breakeven (like 1997-2007)! (Not when still need to pay 10% ABSD!)
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  14. #44
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    "I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
    Really? So how much has the index dropped for OCR private properties?
    How does that compare to the 8 years record of Peak to Trough from 1997-2005?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded.

    OCR opportunity not meant for you. Increase another 20% is still new thousand year record for you.

  15. #45
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    And how many CMs in 1997? Got TDSR?

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    "I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
    Really? So how much has the index dropped for OCR private properties?
    How does that compare to the 8 years record of Peak to Trough from 1997-2005?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatBurger View Post
    Someone has answered that question. However, I want to answer it in a way that is simpler for people to understand how interest rate and exchange rates works in Singapore.

    Let's say a Singapore firm wants to buy some expensive machinery from China. How to the firm pay for it? Like when you go to holiday, the firm needs to exchange the Singapore dollars that it earns from the local market to a currency acceptable by the Chinese machinery maker. Let says that the Chinese company wants only USD because it needs USD to pay other things in the global market.

    So the firm needs to exchange SGD to USD. How many USD the firm gets is dependent on the exchange rate, ie 1 SGD can only buy 70 cents of USD or 50 cents of USD and so on. That is controlled by MAS as MAS buys and sells currencies from its accounts (the so call currency basket) to keep the the demand of USD and supply of USD balance at the point it wants. Ie if SGD starts dropping below the balance point, MAS starts buying SGD and selling USD to reduce the supply available and prop up SGD exchange rate.

    Now, if the machinery is very expensive and the firm cannot pay out of its cash, then it need to borrow. Just like property investors borrow to buy investment properties. Borrowing means that it needs to pay interest. Since the firm needs to buy USD to pay the chinese maker, it borrows directly in USD to avoid incurring the cost of changing borrowed money in SGD to USD (ie money changers margins). However, the loan maker will want the firm to pay the current US FED interest rates , otherwise why lend to the Singapore firm, might as well put in the Fed account and earn the interest.

    This is why Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates because most of the global trade is in USD and Singapore banks and companies borrow a lot in USD. So SOR follows Fed rates though it is not a 100% coupling.
    Main reason is due to arbitrage opportunities.

    Lets say Singapore set both exchange rate and interest rate and allows free flow of capital. If Singapore's interest rate is lower than US, investors will just borrow money from Singapore's bank, convert them to USD and just put them in US banks to earn extra income. Singapore will need to print money to meet the demand. This causes downward pressure on SGD and inflation. Our foreign reserves of US$ may be depleted. Something will break.

    One example of this at work was Soros and the Bank of England.

  17. #47
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    Why are you so evasive of the question I posed to you in response to your statement (which I believe is not true):
    "I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    And how many CMs in 1997? Got TDSR?
    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    "I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
    Really? So how much has the index dropped for OCR private properties?
    How does that compare to the 8 years record of Peak to Trough from 1997-2005?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded.

    OCR opportunity not meant for you. Increase another 20% is still new thousand year record for you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by challenger View Post
    Main reason is due to arbitrage opportunities.

    Lets say Singapore set both exchange rate and interest rate and allows free flow of capital. If Singapore's interest rate is lower than US, investors will just borrow money from Singapore's bank, convert them to USD and just put them in US banks to earn extra income. Singapore will need to print money to meet the demand. This causes downward pressure on SGD and inflation. Our foreign reserves of US$ may be depleted. Something will break.

    One example of this at work was Soros and the Bank of England.
    How could more SGD demand cause downward pressure? Japanese yen has been in this carry trades for decades and its value has been increasing even with negative interest rate.

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    Not evasive, just different viewpoints.

    I trust in CCR>RCR>OCR. But the ratios of differences have been permanently altered due to the changes in TDSR and disruptive technology.

    More representative to see them as a whole market currently.

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Why are you so evasive of the question I posed to you in response to your statement (which I believe is not true):
    "I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  20. #50
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    What different viewpoints you are talking about when I am asking for FACTS?

    Based on FACTS, I believe Private Property Price Index of OCR is near THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK, much much higher than 2007!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Meanwhile, Private Property Price Index of CCR is now significantly below 2007 peak!



    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Not evasive, just different viewpoints.

    I trust in CCR>RCR>OCR. But the ratios of differences have been permanently altered due to the changes in TDSR and disruptive technology.

    More representative to see them as a whole market currently.

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    Chinese BOC new kid on the Block. Don't know what will happen when they flood the World with cheap Loan.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...or-refinancing

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    You have obviously not thought very carefully about the impact of the only effective CM the TDSR, a permanent measure never before implemented in SG and not anywhere else in the world (in this format).


    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    What different viewpoints you are talking about when I am asking for FACTS?

    Based on FACTS, I believe Private Property Price Index of OCR is near THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK, much much higher than 2007!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Meanwhile, Private Property Price Index of CCR is now significantly below 2007 peak!
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  23. #53
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    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by challenger View Post
    Main reason is due to arbitrage opportunities.

    Lets say Singapore set both exchange rate and interest rate and allows free flow of capital. If Singapore's interest rate is lower than US, investors will just borrow money from Singapore's bank, convert them to USD and just put them in US banks to earn extra income. Singapore will need to print money to meet the demand. This causes downward pressure on SGD and inflation. Our foreign reserves of US$ may be depleted. Something will break.

    One example of this at work was Soros and the Bank of England.
    Yes, arbitrage is another part of the interest/exchange equations. I don't see why complicate things for the audience struggling with basic understanding of interest rates and exchanges rates in Singapore... it is easier to relate with concrete things that people deal with daily.

  24. #54
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    Why you keep evading the question I posed to you which is in response to your statement:
    "I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."

    Since you are the first to mention about "Property price index" and that you claimed that it has "since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn", that is why I am asking you to clarify (since my knowledge is that this is NOT true for all regions! - In fact, OCR property prices are NOW at THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK, even significantly MUCH HIGHER than 2007 peak!)

    Thus, I ask you to provide info on OCR Property Price Index and CCR Property Price Index (these are also provided by URA simultaneously).
    So, what is so difficult in my question for you to answer and to clarify your claim? Unless your claim is FAKE statement so you don't dare to reply to my inquiry?
    (just like minority don't dare to reply to my question to confirm his claim (which is obviously FALSE) that Olam rigging its book so as to pay less tax for their capital injection $)
    (since he claimed that PUB must pay taxes on gov's capital injection $!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    You have obviously not thought very carefully about the impact of the only effective CM the TDSR, a permanent measure never before implemented in SG and not anywhere else in the world (in this format).
    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    What different viewpoints you are talking about when I am asking for FACTS?

    Based on FACTS, I believe Private Property Price Index of OCR is near THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK, much much higher than 2007!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Meanwhile, Private Property Price Index of CCR is now significantly below 2007 peak!
    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    "I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
    Really? So how much has the index dropped for OCR private properties?
    How does that compare to the 8 years record of Peak to Trough from 1997-2005?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni
    I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded.

    OCR opportunity not meant for you. Increase another 20% is still new thousand year record for you.
    Last edited by teddybear; 26-06-17 at 23:21.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    You have obviously not thought very carefully about the impact of the only effective CM the TDSR, a permanent measure never before implemented in SG and not anywhere else in the world (in this format).
    TDSR makes our housing market more resilient. Govt is saying: don't play property unless you can really afford it. I prefer if market appreciates gradually rather than it all goes skyrocketing up and then comes crashing down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatBurger View Post
    Yes, arbitrage is another part of the interest/exchange equations. I don't see why complicate things for the audience struggling with basic understanding of interest rates and exchanges rates in Singapore... it is easier to relate with concrete things that people deal with daily.
    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/bank...-fed-rate-hike

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    Like that how interest rate did not go up but fall.

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    That shows how complicate the factors and causal effects of shifting values in the relative factors, very similar to the cause and effects in the property market. However, one thing that all the analysts in the article agree is that it is a short-run effect. Eventually when US Fed rates returns to historical norms, it will force the re-alignment of SOR to Fed Rates.

    The only way I can see that not happening is that RMB becomes a truly global currency which will coupled us tightly to the Chinese economy. Then the Fed rates will play less of an effect as more currency movements are denominated in RMB rather than USD in Singapore.

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    As long as interest rates remain low for the foreseeable future, those of us with housing loans will pare down the loan amount principal as much as possible in the first few years (a decade or more) while theorists continue to debate about when interest rates will rise during a boom market etc.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Like that how interest rate did not go up but fall.
    Historically, US interest rate is above SIBOR. For past few (and many) years, it is the other way round.

    There is a relation but interest rate will not be an exact match.

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