https://www.propwise.sg/5-property-t...ar-of-the-dog/
Challenge him by asking all the right questions:
High land prices?
What has that to do with the buyers? HDB is a necessity but condos are not. Buyers of the latter will bite only when they think the price is reasonable. They don’t care whether developers acquired their sites at premium prices.
High new launch prices?
Will buyers pay high prices? There is a perceived value in every product. The market price is determined by the economy and supply-demand, not by the developers.
High resale prices?
Can buyers afford to pay high prices? Again, this is determined by the economy, employment market, stock performance, etc., not by the sellers.
More buyers?
Where are the buyers? With flat HDB resale prices, HDB upgraders are holding back selling their homes. Are investors confident to buy with disappointing rents, high vacancy rates and climbing interest rates? When will our birth rate and immigration trend up again? Are en bloc owners buying private or downgrading to HDB for retirement?
Growth continues?
Where is the growth in the property market coming from? Is it in resale prices, resale volumes, rental prices or rental rates? What percentage of growth are we talking about?
Let’s put all the sentiments and predictions aside. Look at the supply-demand picture with some real numbers.
Unsold units as of 4th Quarter 2017: 19,755 units (source: URA)
GLS/En bloc sites : 19,900 units(source: URA)
Total in pipeline : 39,655 units (source: URA)
En bloc owners as of today : 4,070 (estimated)
Assuming all displaced en bloc owners opt to buy a newly-launched condo unit instead of a resale, HDB or rental flat, they can occupy at most 10 percent of the total supply in the pipeline. Who are going to buy the rest of the 90 percent?