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Thread: The Dog story goes on and on and on.

  1. #1
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    Default The Dog story goes on and on and on.

    https://www.propwise.sg/5-property-t...ar-of-the-dog/

    Challenge him by asking all the right questions:

    High land prices?
    What has that to do with the buyers? HDB is a necessity but condos are not. Buyers of the latter will bite only when they think the price is reasonable. They don’t care whether developers acquired their sites at premium prices.

    High new launch prices?
    Will buyers pay high prices? There is a perceived value in every product. The market price is determined by the economy and supply-demand, not by the developers.

    High resale prices?
    Can buyers afford to pay high prices? Again, this is determined by the economy, employment market, stock performance, etc., not by the sellers.

    More buyers?
    Where are the buyers? With flat HDB resale prices, HDB upgraders are holding back selling their homes. Are investors confident to buy with disappointing rents, high vacancy rates and climbing interest rates? When will our birth rate and immigration trend up again? Are en bloc owners buying private or downgrading to HDB for retirement?

    Growth continues?
    Where is the growth in the property market coming from? Is it in resale prices, resale volumes, rental prices or rental rates? What percentage of growth are we talking about?

    Let’s put all the sentiments and predictions aside. Look at the supply-demand picture with some real numbers.

    Unsold units as of 4th Quarter 2017: 19,755 units (source: URA)
    GLS/En bloc sites : 19,900 units(source: URA)
    Total in pipeline : 39,655 units (source: URA)
    En bloc owners as of today : 4,070 (estimated)

    Assuming all displaced en bloc owners opt to buy a newly-launched condo unit instead of a resale, HDB or rental flat, they can occupy at most 10 percent of the total supply in the pipeline. Who are going to buy the rest of the 90 percent?

  2. #2
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    We shall see the performance of The Tapestry launch at over 1300psf. The highest in that area so far.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by azeoprop View Post
    We shall see the performance of The Tapestry launch at over 1300psf. The highest in that area so far.
    No brainier but when one try to use too much it can be a problem just like what I did in Jun 2006.

    Got money don't buy what else can one do.

  4. #4
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    I cannot say 100% that our fundamentals are all aligned if not we will be experiencing a V rebound. She is not entirely wrong nor she is entirely right. Our depressed prices are in a way artificially enforced, remove that LTV ratio and ABSD, we will see a very different picture. Still, rentals are less than desirable and our population and migration figures are not entirely on a high upswing.

    Small incremental increase is going to be the flavour of the day until a black swan arrives which she will then sing a very tune where 'who let the dogs out' will be playing in the background with blood on the streets. Then the purse will open and good deals from bloodshed sell-off will be announced.

  5. #5
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    Though there may be some truth that all the infrastructure investments now is in preparation of a bigger population (read immigration), there have also been pronouncements that we cannot rely on quantity to boost growth.
    It will be quality growth which translate to smaller & slower increase in population number.
    Rental may not pick up and we would have to contend with current level.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    https://www.propwise.sg/5-property-t...ar-of-the-dog/

    Challenge him by asking all the right questions:

    High land prices?
    What has that to do with the buyers? HDB is a necessity but condos are not. Buyers of the latter will bite only when they think the price is reasonable. They don’t care whether developers acquired their sites at premium prices.

    High new launch prices?
    Will buyers pay high prices? There is a perceived value in every product. The market price is determined by the economy and supply-demand, not by the developers.

    High resale prices?
    Can buyers afford to pay high prices? Again, this is determined by the economy, employment market, stock performance, etc., not by the sellers.

    More buyers?
    Where are the buyers? With flat HDB resale prices, HDB upgraders are holding back selling their homes. Are investors confident to buy with disappointing rents, high vacancy rates and climbing interest rates? When will our birth rate and immigration trend up again? Are en bloc owners buying private or downgrading to HDB for retirement?

    Growth continues?
    Where is the growth in the property market coming from? Is it in resale prices, resale volumes, rental prices or rental rates? What percentage of growth are we talking about?

    Let’s put all the sentiments and predictions aside. Look at the supply-demand picture with some real numbers.

    Unsold units as of 4th Quarter 2017: 19,755 units (source: URA)
    GLS/En bloc sites : 19,900 units(source: URA)
    Total in pipeline : 39,655 units (source: URA)
    En bloc owners as of today : 4,070 (estimated)

    Assuming all displaced en bloc owners opt to buy a newly-launched condo unit instead of a resale, HDB or rental flat, they can occupy at most 10 percent of the total supply in the pipeline. Who are going to buy the rest of the 90 percent?
    the answer IMO
    1. Yes. Condo are investment vehicle as well, HDB less so. She forgot there are lots of people around with money and nowhere to park them. That includes wealthy foreigners.

    2. The rest of her questions : all answer is Yes. There will be growth. There will be higher prices.

    She really grasping at straws. Last time wrote about cockroach story, now dog story. People have already climbed into the car , started the engine and now driving off, the dog is still barking up the tree by the roadside.

    Of course, 5 or 10 years from now, there is bound to be a period of downturn. So, I suppose, if one barks the same thing for long enough, it will come true. But when it happens, she may already be 50, 60 or 70 years old.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khng8 View Post
    Though there may be some truth that all the infrastructure investments now is in preparation of a bigger population (read immigration), there have also been pronouncements that we cannot rely on quantity to boost growth.
    It will be quality growth which translate to smaller & slower increase in population number.
    Rental may not pick up and we would have to contend with current level.
    Signs are mixed for migration growth today. On one hand we talked about spending billions on infrastructure but yet may be significantly lower in headcount projected recently for 2030. 2031 we ramp up high again and leave CCS our next PM to figure out what to do. I have already given up on the SG government (1.2) trying to reverse birth rates which is lower than Japan's. The single only way for us is migration like you rightly mentioned.

    I am not quite sure what quality growth = more stringent screening for quality residents (read rich) to settle here?

    Yes, rentals do suck at the moment.

  8. #8
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    Property price index in Feb 18 is 190 surpassing the last peak of 186.5 in feb 2013. All effects of the cooling measures are gone.

    https://www.srx.com.sg/price-index

    The massive volume of enbloc transactions recently felt like in 2005 to 2008 period.

  9. #9
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    Jan 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by azeoprop View Post
    Property price index in Feb 18 is 190 surpassing the last peak of 186.5 in feb 2013. All effects of the cooling measures are gone.

    https://www.srx.com.sg/price-index

    The massive volume of enbloc transactions recently felt like in 2005 to 2008 period.
    It felt like 2006. which is why i still support enbloc now. But soon it will become harder to do so....

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