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Thread: Is the market losing steam?

  1. #1
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    Default Is the market losing steam?

    From the 4 launches, only 120 Grange breached 50% take up rate by pricing below nearby projects. The other 3 projects (Margaret Ville, Affinity and The Garden Residence) were rather dismayed with their pricing all above nearby projects.

    Developers paying top price for lands may be in for a rough ride ahead. For example, CDL paid about $1600 psf ppr for Amber Park (D15) in an en bloc sale. Can CDL price it new launch at $$2400 psf when nearby is selling around $1600 psf?

    https://sbr.com.sg/residential-prope...ekend-launches

    Home buyers ditched costly units during weekend launches
    Only one out of four launched projects this weekend, 120 Grange, sold over 50% of its units.


    During the weekend, four residential projects were launched concurrently as developers attempt to clear part of their inventories ahead of the one-month-long school vacation and a sizeable launch pipeline by competitors (14,000 units) over the next 6-12 months, JP Morgan said.

    According to JP Morgan economist Brandon Lee, the sales take-up was mixed, with the better-located and better-priced projects (namely Margaret Ville and 120 Grange) achieving more decent take-up rates.

    Only 120 Grange was able to breach a 50% take-up rate with 30-40 units sold (54-71% take-up). It is a freehold 56-unit high-end condominium along Grange Road owned/developed by Roxy-Pacific Holdings. Its average pricing is $3,000 psf ($2,980-$3,070 psf), which is relatively lower than nearby projects’ $3,200-$3,500 psf.

    Margaret Ville, a government land tender site, sold 100-130 units (32-42% take-up) with an average price of $1,900 psf ($1,830-$1,980 psf), which is relatively higher than nearby projects’ $1,600-$1,800 psf. It is a 99-year leasehold 309-unit mid-end condominium along Margaret Drive developed by Hongkong Land's MCL Land.

    Meanwhile, 110-140 units were sold (11-14% take-up) at Affinity At Serangoon (formerly Serangoon Ville), a 99-year leasehold 1,052-unit mass market condominium along Serangoon North Avenue 1. Average pricing is $1,550 psf ($1,480-$1,580 psf), which is relatively higher than nearby projects’ $1,200-$1,400 psf.

    Also read: 1052-unit Affinity at Serangoon to launch preview in 26 May

    There were 60-90 units sold (10-15% take-up) at The Garden Residences, a 99-year leasehold 613-unit mass market condominium along Serangoon North Avenue 1 owned by a 60:40 JV between Keppel Land and Wing Tai Holdings. Average pricing is $1,750 psf ($1,680-$1,820 psf), which is relatively higher than nearby projects’ $1,200-1,400 psf.

    Lee noted that three out of the four projects achieved record-high pricing for their respective locations as developers continue to target a 15-20% PBT margin despite getting land at a competitive price. "Similar to past launches, the smaller units with lower absolute price quantum continued to sell better, which suggests to us buyer profile is dominated by investors," he added.

    The economist explained that the relatively subdued take-up for Affinity At Serangoon and The Garden Residences, which are just five minutes away from each other, implies that increased options for buyers will slow sales amid rising competition from several projects to be launched within the locality.

    A similar trend could also come up in nearby Potong Pasir/Woodleigh area in July to August 2018, as several projects rather close to one other will be launched, namely The Woodleigh Residences, Park Colonial, Jadescape and The Tre Ver.

    "We think developers may need to re-tweak their selling strategies ahead as buyers are now presented with a surfeit of options, which could result in less-than-optimal take-ups for some projects," Lee said. "We continue to prefer less resi-focused developers in view of possible cooling measures in 2H2018 and slower-than-expected take-up in 2H2018 launches."

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    My reading of the market is that foreign developers started buying up land last year because the Singapore property market was relatively cheaper than HK and China despite all the cooling measures still in place. When the government reduces the SSD to 3 years, developers took the opportunity to stir up the market and suggesting that more measures would be relax since the market had been on a decline since 2013.

    For fear of losing out, local developers also jumped in to buy up land believing that with high price point, they could still pass on the cost to buyers since all developers have to sell at much higher price.

    It will be interesting to see how the market plays out over the next one year.

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    They will need 2 quarters of poor sales before they realized they have over paid for their land and start to write down their projects.

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    Selling higher psf compared nearby. Sales consider no good..?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71 View Post
    Selling higher psf compared nearby. Sales consider no good..?
    Some see half empty, others see half full.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods View Post
    My reading of the market is that foreign developers started buying up land last year because the Singapore property market was relatively cheaper than HK and China despite all the cooling measures still in place. When the government reduces the SSD to 3 years, developers took the opportunity to stir up the market and suggesting that more measures would be relax since the market had been on a decline since 2013.

    For fear of losing out, local developers also jumped in to buy up land believing that with high price point, they could still pass on the cost to buyers since all developers have to sell at much higher price.

    It will be interesting to see how the market plays out over the next one year.
    For so many years since 2013, can buy don't buy still wait for What?

    Chart don't lie, numbers don't lie, Human who read them Do.


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    2017 is already the third biggest year of en-bloc deals, after 2007, which holds the record at S$12.2 billion followed by 2006, at S$8.2 billion.

    http://www.secondpropertyinvestors.c...fever-lead-to/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post


    2017 is already the third biggest year of en-bloc deals, after 2007, which holds the record at S$12.2 billion followed by 2006, at S$8.2 billion.

    http://www.secondpropertyinvestors.c...fever-lead-to/
    The results of the recent launches seem to show the market is not ready yet. With only small units mostly taken up by investors and the bigger units which mostly for family and owner occupier not selling well, these developers paying top prices for en bloc sales may well be in for a tough ride. The market may not be sustainable if demand only come from investors.

    Just like developments in Iskandar which the Chinese developers built only to attract investors and rich Chinese to be used as second home, the lack of real buyers buying to stay there will not generate the economic activities needed to sustain the city.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods View Post
    The results of the recent launches seem to show the market is not ready yet. With only small units mostly taken up by investors and the bigger units which mostly for family and owner occupier not selling well, these developers paying top prices for en bloc sales may well be in for a tough ride. The market may not be sustainable if demand only come from investors.

    Just like developments in Iskandar which the Chinese developers built only to attract investors and rich Chinese to be used as second home, the lack of real buyers buying to stay there will not generate the economic activities needed to sustain the city.
    Just like 2006, where were you in 2006. did you miss the action and going to miss this also.

    You are mixing apples with oranges, very dangerous when looking at property this way.

    Those who say crash crash crash are no longer around, soon those who say how to chiong will be gone also.

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    Right now there are two possibilities.

    1. Same as Commonwealth towers when first built. Sales and prices would eventually moved in developers’ favour.

    2. Retraction to 1400-1500 psf will allow quick sell-out. But Serangoon is still OCR if I am not mistaken. Even at that price level, prices would still be some 15-20% higher than those established in 2013.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Just like 2006, where were you in 2006. did you miss the action and going to miss this also.

    You are mixing apples with oranges, very dangerous when looking at property this way.

    Those who say crash crash crash are no longer around, soon those who say how to chiong will be gone also.
    We shall see how the market play out over the next two quarters to get a better feel of the market.

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    My feel is that buyers in Singapore know there are options and some are holding back if they are eyeing certain locations ONLY. If they want to go in this year, if its something they like, I think they will go in.

    Therefore launches that are of 'good value', it will still be 80-90% sold within a year or so after launch (total units, not by phases). The new age of buyers are definitely more discerning than say 10 years ago. I would put it as market sophistication as now there are a lot more information at their finger tips to make those decisions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    My feel is that buyers in Singapore know there are options and some are holding back if they are eyeing certain locations ONLY. If they want to go in this year, if its something they like, I think they will go in.

    Therefore launches that are of 'good value', it will still be 80-90% sold within a year or so after launch (total units, not by phases). The new age of buyers are definitely more discerning than say 10 years ago. I would put it as market sophistication as now there are a lot more information at their finger tips to make those decisions.
    True, there are people who are holding back since 2013 and still holding for another year or two should not be a problem.

    Once they start to see 'good value' then the down cycle begin and they will be still holding back.

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    The next 6 to 9 months, we can be more confidence if the current buying interest is that of a 'dead cat bounced' which will lead to continuous down trend thereafter or the market will take off from here for another bull run like we witness between 2009 to 2013.

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    this is not Commonwealth Towers - MRT is not at the doorstep of the condo.

    Serangoon is RCR, not OCR.

    I like the Affinity site, it sits on elevated road, with a small side road in front. Those condos facing the landed houses will have nice views.

    The only drawback is the location - it's not easily accessible via MRT, I don't see why buyers should pay a premium.

    Where are the cash-rich buyers with plenty of money to spare from en blco sales proceeds? what's 10-20% premium to current prices to them? why don't they snap up the units if they feel they are getting good deals?

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    many enbloc cash rich may not be so interested with new projects due to its size and high psf, but since youngsters mostly keen with new sale and has aspiration to stay condo then parents end up helping them buy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sginvestor View Post
    this is not Commonwealth Towers - MRT is not at the doorstep of the condo.

    Serangoon is RCR, not OCR.

    I like the Affinity site, it sits on elevated road, with a small side road in front. Those condos facing the landed houses will have nice views.

    The only drawback is the location - it's not easily accessible via MRT, I don't see why buyers should pay a premium.

    Where are the cash-rich buyers with plenty of money to spare from en blco sales proceeds? what's 10-20% premium to current prices to them? why don't they snap up the units if they feel they are getting good deals?
    CRL MRT station nearby, for those who know and those who don't.



    Interesting what a child know more about CRL MRT.
    Last edited by Arcachon; 05-06-18 at 22:24.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    True, there are people who are holding back since 2013 and still holding for another year or two should not be a problem.

    Once they start to see 'good value' then the down cycle begin and they will be still holding back.
    Most who buy in recent OCR/RCR launches are not the Ultra High Nett Worth types who can own multiple units or the New Futura. Their bullets are limited. They need to assess carefully as this might be their only other investment property other than their own stay. The current new launch prices are indeed a little hard to swallow. If re-sale does not pick up too, I think we are in trouble. Where has most of the en-bloc liquidity go to?

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    i attended a seminar, and the presentation was about $8 billion enbloc liquidity from last year, and the guy was so confident that the money will come back into the new projects. Wonder how is that linked to the initial launch results?

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    Quote Originally Posted by tick View Post
    i attended a seminar, and the presentation was about $8 billion enbloc liquidity from last year, and the guy was so confident that the money will come back into the new projects. Wonder how is that linked to the initial launch results?
    In a typical old private development sold en bloc (not HUDC), owner occupier is about 60% and investor is about 40%. Most owner occupiers will buy resale to stay. Of these, some will buy HDB flats for retirement and some will buy old private resale so that they can move in. The investors can wait to buy and in no hurry to buy. If they should buy now, they will buy resale for immediate rental income. Almost all en blocers will not buy new launch.

    You are right, if resale is not picking up, it is not a good sign. Perhaps, more are buying HDB flats for retirement since aging HDB flat prices are coming down much faster since the Minister confirmed that price of HDB flat will become zero upon reaching 99 years. The money from en blocers are not flowing back into the market as much as property agents and property agencies are trying hard to impress the market.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Amber Woods View Post
    In a typical old private development sold en bloc (not HUDC), owner occupier is about 60% and investor is about 40%. Most owner occupiers will buy resale to stay. Of these, some will buy HDB flats for retirement and some will buy old private resale so that they can move in. The investors can wait to buy and in no hurry to buy. If they should buy now, they will buy resale for immediate rental income. Almost all en blocers will not buy new launch.

    You are right, if resale is not picking up, it is not a good sign. Perhaps, more are buying HDB flats for retirement since aging HDB flat prices are coming down much faster since the Minister confirmed that price of HDB flat will become zero upon reaching 99 years. The money from en blocers are not flowing back into the market as much as property agents and property agencies are trying hard to impress the market.
    Only Time will tell the truth, just like 2007.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    Only Time will tell the truth, just like 2007.

    Yah man, my ex-boss few properties been enbloc-ed 2017-2018, and the rest I shall end here.
    Your answer is as good as what I’m seeing a true enbloc-er is doing at this moment now

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    There is liquidity on all property classes, not just on residential new/resale. Some of them invested in commercial properties. Our recent shophouse sale is to a beneficiary from 2017 HUDC En Bloc. He paid a huge proportion in cash. Probably due to his age as he is in his 60s.

    I think I have said this before...our recovery will be alot more gradual this round. Not a V shape rebound, more like a long U shape. CMs are in place (here to stay) and its sheer brilliance is keeping that in check.

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    Came across this article that claims half of May en bloc failed. https://www.99.co/blog/singapore/en-...e-sale-tender/

    Possible that the turning point is reached? Developers have jiak enough already.

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    Quote Originally Posted by catlover24 View Post
    Came across this article that claims half of May en bloc failed. https://www.99.co/blog/singapore/en-...e-sale-tender/

    Possible that the turning point is reached? Developers have jiak enough already.
    You are right.

    Here is the big picture.


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    Quote Originally Posted by catlover24 View Post
    Came across this article that claims half of May en bloc failed. https://www.99.co/blog/singapore/en-...e-sale-tender/

    Possible that the turning point is reached? Developers have jiak enough already.
    Unlikely that we have reached turning point. 1 of my Bukit Timah condo has just started forming CSC due to expression of interest from a local developer which prompted some of us to consider our next moves. This time round, we also have new players from China, never under-estimate their purchasing power. Early days imo...lots of leg room. My fellow owners are holding out for record price, no record price, no talk!

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    Any recent en-bloc success news to share? I have not seen any recently. Maybe I was not tuning in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Any recent en-bloc success news to share? I have not seen any recently. Maybe I was not tuning in.
    You are right, market very hot but how many know and understand.

    By the time those who don't know and don't understand know and understand, they will be waiting for the next cycle.

    I love my new business, my business Boss tell us today to take care of ourselves first than can take good care of our buyer, seller, tenants.

    He even do all the leg work for us and tell us which project to buy, cannot say sure made money but at least don't lost money.

    The News will be out after the launch where the buyer are from the Biggest Agency in Singapore.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Any recent en-bloc success news to share? I have not seen any recently. Maybe I was not tuning in.
    Chinatown people park is going for collective sale.
    One china owner contacted me for my unit which was on a website, mainly their china community are surfing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    Any recent en-bloc success news to share? I have not seen any recently. Maybe I was not tuning in.
    oh well, fresh out of the oven. looks like attention has turned to CCR.

    https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/rea...ollective-sale

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