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Thread: The Wharf Residence (D9, 999 yrs, Capitaland)

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    Rule 1: When it is cheap, it is cheap for a reason.

    A stock price reflects the health of the company. Buying stock is not like shopping, you don't go for bargains. You go for healthy company.

    Rule 2: Do not be afraid to take losses.

    It is better to stop and take some losses rather than wait for a tumbling stock to recover. Usually, a dropping stock will drop further!

    Rule 3: Never fall in love with any investment or stock.

    You don't fall in love with something inanimate.

    Rule 4: Use your head, not your heart.

    If when you buy a stock, it drops. And when you sell, it risies. Then you have been trading with your heart and not your brain. Read those financial statements again, don't be lazy!

    Rule 5: Don't average down !

    To average down is to walk into a trap. It is wiser to average up.

    Rule 6: Let the gains run, but stop the losses.

    When you are winning on a trade, let it runs until your profit objective is achieved. But when you are on a losing trade, better take some monies off the table.

    Rule 7: If you can't sleep over a pick, most probably it is a bad pick.

    You have overlooked something. Your instinct is sending some signals to your brain. Review your stock pick.

    Rule 8: Don't show hand ! ( Meaning: dump all you have into a single investment )

    Because you will be at the mercy of one investment. If this fails, it is game over for you. However, if you keep some bullets, you can shoot like Rambo later again .

    Rule 9: Listen only to analysts that have a single-sided opinion. Shun those who give you 2-sided advice.

    Analyst who cannot give you a straight forward one sided view usually don't know what they are talking about or are just plain cowards . In investment, you always seek opinions which are presented one sided .You decide on the opinions later whether they are right or wrong on your own. They are the presenters, you are the decision maker. So, it is hardly useful when an analyst tells you “ The economy may recover in the next quarter, but it may not also due to...etc etc.” Come on, ANALYSTS ARE NOT POLITICIANS, YOU DON'T NEED A DIPLOMATIC ANALYST! An inconclusive analysis will only cripple and confuse your mind.

    Rule 10: Discipline Vs Setting Targets.

    Normally, in trading stocks, a human will not execute his orders even when the price targets are met many times. He will just watch them as his profits disappear or his losses escalate as if enjoying it. In trading, setting targets is very important and you have to be discipline enough to execute your orders when your targets are reached. It is important to be discipline in this because for a private trader, your are actually trading against a market of automated trading systems. Basically, the rule is to set a profit objective and a stop loss target. When your stock reaches the profit objective, execute it. And when it reaches your loss target, execute it. Be as emotionless as possible when you execute the trades. In reality, easier said than done but can be done!

    Rule 11: Pick a winner, not a loser.

    Rule 12: Your Due Diligence.

    More to come.....



    Disclaimers: Use the information on this page with discretion and due diligence. The investment principles presented here are very contrarian and based purely on personal trading experience. I am trained in business administration, I DO NOT have a finance,economic or stock trading degree. What works for me, may not work for you. I shall not be responsible for any loss or anything you do with any information on this site.
    Excellent advice!

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    Rule 1: When it is cheap, it is cheap for a reason.

    A stock price reflects the health of the company. Buying stock is not like shopping, you don't go for bargains. You go for healthy company.

    Rule 2: Do not be afraid to take losses.

    It is better to stop and take some losses rather than wait for a tumbling stock to recover. Usually, a dropping stock will drop further!

    Rule 3: Never fall in love with any investment or stock.

    You don't fall in love with something inanimate.

    Rule 4: Use your head, not your heart.

    If when you buy a stock, it drops. And when you sell, it risies. Then you have been trading with your heart and not your brain. Read those financial statements again, don't be lazy!

    Rule 5: Don't average down !

    To average down is to walk into a trap. It is wiser to average up.

    Rule 6: Let the gains run, but stop the losses.

    When you are winning on a trade, let it runs until your profit objective is achieved. But when you are on a losing trade, better take some monies off the table.

    Rule 7: If you can't sleep over a pick, most probably it is a bad pick.

    You have overlooked something. Your instinct is sending some signals to your brain. Review your stock pick.

    Rule 8: Don't show hand ! ( Meaning: dump all you have into a single investment )

    Because you will be at the mercy of one investment. If this fails, it is game over for you. However, if you keep some bullets, you can shoot like Rambo later again .

    Rule 9: Listen only to analysts that have a single-sided opinion. Shun those who give you 2-sided advice.

    Analyst who cannot give you a straight forward one sided view usually don't know what they are talking about or are just plain cowards . In investment, you always seek opinions which are presented one sided .You decide on the opinions later whether they are right or wrong on your own. They are the presenters, you are the decision maker. So, it is hardly useful when an analyst tells you “ The economy may recover in the next quarter, but it may not also due to...etc etc.” Come on, ANALYSTS ARE NOT POLITICIANS, YOU DON'T NEED A DIPLOMATIC ANALYST! An inconclusive analysis will only cripple and confuse your mind.

    Rule 10: Discipline Vs Setting Targets.

    Normally, in trading stocks, a human will not execute his orders even when the price targets are met many times. He will just watch them as his profits disappear or his losses escalate as if enjoying it. In trading, setting targets is very important and you have to be discipline enough to execute your orders when your targets are reached. It is important to be discipline in this because for a private trader, your are actually trading against a market of automated trading systems. Basically, the rule is to set a profit objective and a stop loss target. When your stock reaches the profit objective, execute it. And when it reaches your loss target, execute it. Be as emotionless as possible when you execute the trades. In reality, easier said than done but can be done!

    Rule 11: Pick a winner, not a loser.

    Rule 12: Your Due Diligence.

    More to come.....



    Disclaimers: Use the information on this page with discretion and due diligence. The investment principles presented here are very contrarian and based purely on personal trading experience. I am trained in business administration, I DO NOT have a finance,economic or stock trading degree. What works for me, may not work for you. I shall not be responsible for any loss or anything you do with any information on this site.
    Excellent advice!!

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    1-year-old Rivergate at $1,911 psf?
    Err ... but it's for big unit leh. 2-bedder for more than $2,500 psf?


    Martin Place Residences 2-bedder at $1,800 psf?
    Err ... but that's more than 3 months ago. Now the same 2-bedder for more than $2,500 psf?
    Paisei I meant 2450psf to buy 2rms @ Wharf, might as well get RG or Martin Place residences @ 1800 to 2000 psf

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter, The Cosmopolitan, 9 March 2010 2. pm
    The last-last time was 1 month. The last time was 2 weeks. This time it is 1 week.
    In just a week, The Cosmopolitan has a nëw hïgh of $2,000 psf!

    Can we all say "finally"?


    The Cosmopolitan
    Address ............................ psf ............... Area .......... Price ............ Contract Date
    202 Kim Seng Road #27-08 .... $2,000 psf .... 1,679 sqft .... $3,358,000 .... 22 Feb 10
    While some forumers choose to spend their time debating on The Wharf Residence's $2,450 psf subsale, little did they realise nearby The Cosmopolitan has already hit $2,000 psf via a caveat lodged 2 weeks ago! The actual sale was obviously signed many weeks back.

    Perhaps they should consider spending their time finding out what psf's have been signed lately in the market? $2,450 psf is really no biggie! Why spend time over it?

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    IMO, 2k psf is nothing for cosmopolitan. Wait till you see the caveats of Clift and Icon. Not forgetting Sail carpark unit. And MBR stack 10. That will be stunning. I heard from agents, FEO started selling Clift again. High floor but I am surprised that they still have stock. What buyers need to do is to submit cheque for FEO to release the units. FEO forever FEO. Haha.




    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    While some forumers choose to spend their time debating on The Wharf Residence's $2,450 psf subsale, little did they realise nearby The Cosmopolitan has already hit $2,000 psf via a caveat lodged 2 weeks ago! The actual sale was obviously signed many weeks back.

    Perhaps they should consider spending their time finding out what psf's have been signed lately in the market? $2,450 psf is really no biggie! Why spend time over it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Squall8888, 9 March 2010 3.42 pm
    IMO, 2k psf is nothing for cosmopolitan. Wait till you see the caveats of Clift and Icon. Not forgetting Sail carpark unit. And MBR stack 10. That will be stunning. I heard from agents, FEO started selling Clift again. High floor but I am surprised that they still have stock. What buyers need to do is to submit cheque for FEO to release the units. FEO forever FEO. Haha.
    You know something about The Sail at Marina Bay that we don't?
    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter, The Sail at Marina Bay, 11 March 2010 7.11 pm
    $3,413 psf?
    Wow!
    So we have finally broken the all-time-high record of $3,387 psf set on 4 April 2008?

  7. #97
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    Default Wharf at $2,450 psf

    Hi Guys,

    just a bit curious... i seems to got lost somewhere in the thread.

    since when did Wharf trade for $2,450 psf?

    Did i missed something along the way?

    Cheers,

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    the debate is getting sillier and sillier by the second. 110 units of the wharf are for sale on propertyguru.com alone in a project that houses only 180 units.

    but there are only one or two transactions per month. the market is so thin, so what is so big deal about a abnormally high price every now and then? It's inside trading between related parties.

    the same silly thing is happening with the cosmopolitan. in a 200-plus project, 100 are for sale. again, there is only one or two transactions per month. So, what is the big deal about the price achieved?

    you guys better stop talking nonsense all the time. the market is thin, and the stock is not moving in the subsale market. the only thing moving is the launch market, which is just a big casino, so the pricing there is not indicative of anything.

    rivergate is another example, one year after TOP, 200 units are for sale. go figure it out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    the debate is getting sillier and sillier by the second. 110 units of the wharf are for sale on propertyguru.com alone in a project that houses only 180 units.

    but there are only one or two transactions per month. the market is so thin, so what is so big deal about a abnormally high price every now and then? It's inside trading between related parties.

    the same silly thing is happening with the cosmopolitan. in a 200-plus project, 100 are for sale. again, there is only one or two transactions per month. So, what is the big deal about the price achieved?

    you guys better stop talking nonsense all the time. the market is thin, and the stock is not moving in the subsale market. the only thing moving is the launch market, which is just a big casino, so the pricing there is not indicative of anything.

    rivergate is another example, one year after TOP, 200 units are for sale. go figure it out.
    these are agents duplicate / counter advertising lah...Given 1 unit 10 agents all advertise at same time => 10 units available loh...especially on those websites....anyone also can insert advert lah....not reliable one....track S.T. papers advert but again not reliable on those that put long list....basically they just compile and collate from telemarketeers or admin ask to compile on available owners' units in market then they take and whack on papers as if their units....when you call they say...huh..huh...let them check on seller how....

    If new launch can move at record volume and prices, it is just a matter of time that subsale market will move.... because when buyers find better value in subsale market then they will buy....imagine cairnhill's laurel launching 3000 to 3100psf for a 2 bedroom and buyers snap....it will make cairnhill residences and rhapsody on mount elizabeth brand new at 2500 psf seem cheap....why people then won't buy in the subsale market....please explain...? Similarly when this epicentre of laurels and urban suites spread from cairnhill area, neighbouring subsale developments and resale developments will start to benefit in next upcoming 2 to 3 months as they become relatively cheap then....please explain then why people won't buy in subsale.....when there are advantages to be taken of in the market....

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    A transaction is a transaction. A higher transaction will bring up the valuation of all other apartments in the estate that is for sale. Cosmopolitan at $2000 psf I am not surprise anyway (I would say "under-valued") if The Vision can sell at $1200 psf.

    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    the debate is getting sillier and sillier by the second. 110 units of the wharf are for sale on propertyguru.com alone in a project that houses only 180 units.

    but there are only one or two transactions per month. the market is so thin, so what is so big deal about a abnormally high price every now and then? It's inside trading between related parties.

    the same silly thing is happening with the cosmopolitan. in a 200-plus project, 100 are for sale. again, there is only one or two transactions per month. So, what is the big deal about the price achieved?

    you guys better stop talking nonsense all the time. the market is thin, and the stock is not moving in the subsale market. the only thing moving is the launch market, which is just a big casino, so the pricing there is not indicative of anything.

    rivergate is another example, one year after TOP, 200 units are for sale. go figure it out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by saab
    these are agents duplicate / counter advertising lah...Given 1 unit 10 agents all advertise at same time => 10 units available loh...especially on those websites....anyone also can insert advert lah....not reliable one....track S.T. papers advert but again not reliable on those that put long list....basically they just compile and collate from telemarketeers or admin ask to compile on available owners' units in market then they take and whack on papers as if their units....when you call they say...huh..huh...let them check on seller how....

    If new launch can move at record volume and prices, it is just a matter of time that subsale market will move.... because when buyers find better value in subsale market then they will buy....imagine cairnhill's laurel launching 3000 to 3100psf for a 2 bedroom and buyers snap....it will make cairnhill residences and rhapsody on mount elizabeth brand new at 2500 psf seem cheap....why people then won't buy in the subsale market....please explain...? Similarly when this epicentre of laurels and urban suites spread from cairnhill area, neighbouring subsale developments and resale developments will start to benefit in next upcoming 2 to 3 months as they become relatively cheap then....please explain then why people won't buy in subsale.....when there are advantages to be taken of in the market....
    1 more perspective to share:-

    There is no additional advantage from buying from a developer 'cos now there is no IAS or DPS....So buying from subsale and developer no difference to a buyer....only advantage for developer is really just pyschology lah...nice showflat....aggressive marketing from their agents....bank valuations....buying into the future dreams and promises etc. etc. Pyschology of why not buying from subsales is hate to let other people make money but nevermind if it is for developer to make because they are developers??? C'mon, from a buyer's perspective in actual fact why care....as long as don't go against own's pockets!

  12. #102
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    Sometimes, it is just herd mentality OR these people buy not for profit???. I just can't see how people are willing to put down 20% downpayment, pay interests on remaining 80% loan for next 3 years for the condo to be built but not willing to buy resale at much cheaper price and start collecting net rental income right away! Strange strange phenomenon?

    Quote Originally Posted by saab
    1 more perspective to share:-

    There is no additional advantage from buying from a developer 'cos now there is no IAS or DPS....So buying from subsale and developer no difference to a buyer....only advantage for developer is really just pyschology lah...nice showflat....aggressive marketing from their agents....bank valuations....buying into the future dreams and promises etc. etc. Pyschology of why not buying from subsales is hate to let other people make money but nevermind if it is for developer to make because they are developers??? C'mon, from a buyer's perspective in actual fact why care....as long as don't go against own's pockets!

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Sometimes, it is just herd mentality OR these people buy not for profit???. I just can't see how people are willing to put down 20% downpayment, pay interests on remaining 80% loan for next 3 years for the condo to be built but not willing to buy resale at much cheaper price and start collecting net rental income right away! Strange strange phenomenon?
    Well said...now buying direct from developers got to service progressive payment 'cos no more IAS liao!!! So why not buy subsale just TOP or Resale (if don't stay still can collect rental).... so it doesn't make sense that there is a primary market and no secondary market....unless as discussed just now developers got advantage...but we question ourselves do developers really have advantage as their most powerful weapon IAS have been taken away from them.....

    I guess next is that buyers just like "new" things lah......"NEW" means nice, good, most modern....just like we also like to buy new car models new fridge models, new tv models...lah....human psychology lah.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by pweesng, 16 March 2010 3.03 pm
    Hi Guys,

    just a bit curious... i seems to got lost somewhere in the thread.

    since when did Wharf trade for $2,450 psf?

    Did i missed something along the way?

    Cheers,
    Not to worry. That $2,450 psf was 11 days ago. You have lost only about 2 weeks.


    Anyway, we all have been asking these questions, haven't we?

    Why buy The Wharf Residence subsale at $2,450 psf?

    Why buy going-9-year-old Ardmore Park at $3,688 psf?
    Why buy going-2-year-old The Sail at Marina Bay at $3,413 psf?
    Why buy Marina Bay Residences subsale at $3,130 psf?
    Why buy going-1-year-old The Tate Residences at $2,946 psf?
    Why buy Ardmore II subsale at $2,829 psf?
    Why buy The Trillium subsale at $2,100 psf?
    Why buy The Cosmopolitan subsale at $2,000 psf?
    Why buy 3-year-old The Pier at Robertson at $1,917 psf?
    Why buy 1-year-old Rivergate at $1,911 psf?
    Why buy going-1-year-old City Square Residence at $1,297 psf?
    Why buy 8@Woodleigh subsale at $1,130 psf?
    Why buy going-6-year-old Nuovo EC at $674 psf?

    Why not buy The Laurel at $4,978 psf?
    Why not buy Keng-Chin-Road's Cyan at $2,499 psf?
    Why not buy Amber's Silversea at $1,946 psf?
    Why not buy District-21 Jardin at $1,903 psf?
    Why not buy District-19 Residences Botanique at $1,333 psf?
    Why not buy Telok-Kurau's The Sound from $1,480 psf?


    Some of them is 9-year-old. Some of them is 6-year-old-district-20 EC.
    So old! Why buy them?
    Why not buy The Laurel, Cyan, Silversea, Jardin, Residences Botanique, The Sound, etc.?
    So new! So nice!
    I don't know as I am no expert.


    P.S.: What is District-5 conman "stalingrad" doing here? I still remember the last time I shout his name "conman" on 14 December 2009 in the Estuary thread.
    Quote Originally Posted by Squall8888, 5 March 2010 3.50 pm
    A 2 bedroom just sold at 2450 psf. I think the buyer didn't do enough researches. There are many units at 1400 to 1500 psf. Hahaha.

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    But if I buy new car models new fridge models, new tv models etc etc, I can feel and test how it is like before I buy to make sure that IT is really what I will get and I get to enjoy the usage immediately. Buy a "NEW" property (should be called a piece of S&P paper instead) and have to wait for 3 years to know what is the real quality and don't even know I like the final product or not and still having to pay interest for it? Siao Ah? (Need to wait for 3 years to know what is the "selected stone" for my flooring in the brochure?)

    Quote Originally Posted by saab
    Well said...now buying direct from developers got to service progressive payment 'cos no more IAS liao!!! So why not buy subsale just TOP or Resale (if don't stay still can collect rental).... so it doesn't make sense that there is a primary market and no secondary market....unless as discussed just now developers got advantage...but we question ourselves do developers really have advantage as their most powerful weapon IAS have been taken away from them.....

    I guess next is that buyers just like "new" things lah......"NEW" means nice, good, most modern....just like we also like to buy new car models new fridge models, new tv models...lah....human psychology lah.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by saab
    these are agents duplicate / counter advertising lah...Given 1 unit 10 agents all advertise at same time => 10 units available loh...especially on those websites....anyone also can insert advert lah....not reliable one....track S.T. papers advert but again not reliable on those that put long list....basically they just compile and collate from telemarketeers or admin ask to compile on available owners' units in market then they take and whack on papers as if their units....when you call they say...huh..huh...let them check on seller how....

    If new launch can move at record volume and prices, it is just a matter of time that subsale market will move.... because when buyers find better value in subsale market then they will buy....imagine cairnhill's laurel launching 3000 to 3100psf for a 2 bedroom and buyers snap....it will make cairnhill residences and rhapsody on mount elizabeth brand new at 2500 psf seem cheap....why people then won't buy in the subsale market....please explain...? Similarly when this epicentre of laurels and urban suites spread from cairnhill area, neighbouring subsale developments and resale developments will start to benefit in next upcoming 2 to 3 months as they become relatively cheap then....please explain then why people won't buy in subsale.....when there are advantages to be taken of in the market....
    if duplicate sales explain the large number for sale, the why are the number of many other condos for sales down to 30 or even 20. examples are many, varsity park, carabelle, etc. what that suggest is that the surfeit of units for sale at plush projects are real, not phantom.

    The market has bifurcated. mass condos are moving. high end ones are not. mass condos can sell 10 or 20 units a month. but high end ones sells only one or two per month.

    If you own a luxury condos like duchess residences, you are cooked. you should at least lose 40% if not more. owners of duchess residences have lost 20% even if you think the prices asked are indicative of the market value.

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    This you may be don't know - There are many more agents who just deal with properties in CCR and no where else. As such, they make multiple postings, including those they co-broke. If I am a property agent I also rather focus on CCR only where each deal closed net much much higher commission than those mass market condos (and the efforts needed are the same anyway and they have more own free time).

    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    if duplicate sales explain the large number for sale, the why are the number of many other condos for sales down to 30 or even 20. examples are many, varsity park, carabelle, etc. what that suggest is that the surfeit of units for sale at plush projects are real, not phantom.

    The market has bifurcated. mass condos are moving. high end ones are not. mass condos can sell 10 or 20 units a month. but high end ones sells only one or two per month.

    If you own a luxury condos like duchess residences, you are cooked. you should at least lose 40% if not more. owners of duchess residences have lost 20% even if you think the prices asked are indicative of the market value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    This you may be don't know - There are many more agents who just deal with properties in CCR and no where else. As such, they make multiple postings, including those they co-broke. If I am a property agent I also rather focus on CCR only where each deal closed net much much higher commission than those mass market condos (and the efforts needed are the same anyway and they have more own free time).
    the fact remains that the market for condos in ccr is very very thin. you can't sell your units unless you take a 20-30% haircut. that you can't deny.

    I also doubt your theory has any validity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    the fact remains that the market for condos in ccr is very very thin. you can't sell your units unless you take a 20-30% haircut. that you can't deny.

    I also doubt your theory has any validity.
    So, if you have purchased a CCR unit from the developer at the current high prices, the chances are that you may have to hold on to it for quite a while and pray hard that you can find a tenant to finance your bank loan. Unless of course you have plenty of cash and can afford to leave it empty meanwhile. Alternatively, stay in the unit. Conclusion is the prices of condo in CCR has gone beyond the affordability level of most potential buyers in the Singapore pte property market.

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    True for New sale but not true for resale. There are still bargains there in CCR but only limited to resale (you just have to go and sniff out). These properties can still get gross yield of about 4%.

    Quote Originally Posted by moneyspinner
    So, if you have purchased a CCR unit from the developer at the current high prices, the chances are that you may have to hold on to it for quite a while and pray hard that you can find a tenant to finance your bank loan. Unless of course you have plenty of cash and can afford to leave it empty meanwhile. Alternatively, stay in the unit. Conclusion is the prices of condo in CCR has gone beyond the affordability level of most potential buyers in the Singapore pte property market.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    True for New sale but not true for resale. There are still bargains there in CCR but only limited to resale (you just have to go and sniff out). These properties can still get gross yield of about 4%.
    True but the caveat is you are able to get the tenancy for the yield. With more new condos coming up, this can be a challenge especially when the rental market is still soft. Recap - what is supporting the current property prices is basically exceptionally low interest rates and the dearth in alternative investment opportunities with lower risk.

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    Given the low interest rates of <1.5%, any net rental yield >2.5% is a good bargain and investment.

    Quote Originally Posted by moneyspinner
    True but the caveat is you are able to get the tenancy for the yield. With more new condos coming up, this can be a challenge especially when the rental market is still soft. Recap - what is supporting the current property prices is basically exceptionally low interest rates and the dearth in alternative investment opportunities with lower risk.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Quote Originally Posted by moneyspinner
    True but the caveat is you are able to get the tenancy for the yield. With more new condos coming up, this can be a challenge especially when the rental market is still soft. Recap - what is supporting the current property prices is basically exceptionally low interest rates and the dearth in alternative investment opportunities with lower risk.
    Given the low interest rates of <1.5%, any net rental yield >2.5% is a good bargain and investment.
    What is supporting the current property prices is NOT exceptionally low interest rates, but PROPERTISM !!! (i.e. the effect of paper money losing all its value in the long run).

    I have the urge to paste my historical chart showing interest rate of 19% p.a. yet property prices were still going up. But I'll control myself and refrain from doing so.

    teddybear is right! And when interest rates go up, rental yield will also go up!

    Ok here I have to show one news clipping (just one) (which some members may find boring). However, I always believe that we have to back up the things we say.

    Look at Beverly Mai 1974, rental $2,500 p.m. ($30,000 p.a.) on capital cost of $235,000 means yield of 12.8% p.a. !!! However, interest rates during those days were correspondingly high as well (refer to clippings in my other posts).



    Most of the time, rental yield barely covers mortgage interest. However, ultimately, Beverly Mai was en blocked in 2007 for $4.4 million each. Compounded over 33 years, the capital appreciation was 9.3% p.a. Capital appreciation is the killer part.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moneyspinner
    So, if you have purchased a CCR unit from the developer at the current high prices, the chances are that you may have to hold on to it for quite a while and pray hard that you can find a tenant to finance your bank loan. Unless of course you have plenty of cash and can afford to leave it empty meanwhile. Alternatively, stay in the unit. Conclusion is the prices of condo in CCR has gone beyond the affordability level of most potential buyers in the Singapore pte property market.
    why so many people buy from the developers but not on the resale market. very simple, as I said, the psychology is different. If you buy from the developer, you are just buying an option. You are not buying a condo. Even when you exercise the option, you have 3 to 4 years to gamble with your unit with little financial commitments. Mind you you make progressive payments or no payments until TOP. So, psychologically, buying a condo from a developer is like long-drawn casino game. you are hoping that during that long pre-TOP period the price will go beyond what you are committed to pay the developer and you can make a profit. It is the feeling that you can wait and see over a long period of time that makes people throw caution to the wind. that is why I say the launch market is a giant casino. and the prices there are no where indicative of the true market value.

    resale market is different. the moment you sign on the dotted line, you must fork over the whole amount to the seller. the game is over. the financial commitment is total. and if you gamble and lose, your whole life is ruined. That is why people are more cautious in the resale market.

    Now we are seeing a bifurcated market, units are flying off the shelves so to speak in the launch market but nothing is moving in the resale market. now, you tell me, is the market supported by the fundamentals or the casino mentality of many singaporeans, who are so bored with their lives and they must gamble to relieve their boredom? And where is the market headed? Crash, of course.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    why so many people buy from the developers but not on the resale market. very simple, as I said, the psychology is different. If you buy from the developer, you are just buying an option. You are not buying a condo. Even when you exercise the option, you have 3 to 4 years to gamble with your unit with little financial commitments. Mind you you make progressive payments or no payments until TOP. So, psychologically, buying a condo from a developer is like long-drawn casino game. you are hoping that during that long pre-TOP period the price will go beyond what you are committed to pay the developer and you can make a profit. It is the feeling that you can wait and see over a long period of time that makes people throw caution to the wind. that is why I say the launch market is a giant casino. and the prices there are no where indicative of the true market value.

    resale market is different. the moment you sign on the dotted line, you must fork over the whole amount to the seller. the game is over. the financial commitment is total. and if you gamble and lose, your whole life is ruined. That is why people are more cautious in the resale market.

    Now we are seeing a bifurcated market, units are flying off the shelves so to speak in the launch market but nothing is moving in the resale market. now, you tell me, is the market supported by the fundamentals or the casino mentality of many singaporeans, who are so bored with their lives and they must gamble to relieve their boredom? And where is the market headed? Crash, of course.
    Your perspective is from that of a casino's gambler. Your crystal ball sees only a gambler's mentality of "hoping" to buy a new launch from a developer at outright 15% plus minus price higher in today's market context for a "pass" (that's what you call an option) for 3 to 4 years "hoping" to offload at a profit along the way, while serving progressive payments blah blah blah...('cos no IAS now). But the gambler will soon realise that the gap between the new launch and resale are widening at very fast pace with current rate going......

    Look at these:- Cairnhill's Urban Suites ($2800 psf ave. almost 100% sold, if subsales can be found in market now guess how much?); Laurels ($3000 psf ave. - 135 taken up out of 179 previewed on last weekend); L'VIV ($2050 psf ave. - 110 taken up out of 147 officially launched only last weekend too); Altez (from $2250 psf now selling the 2 bedrooms loft at #30 floor and above and guess what already as of yesterday 15 units out of 36 available have been snapped up and feo not releasing any more units as of now...); waterscape at cavenagh (from $2000 psf now with limited units left out of 190 over launch since jan'10...); centennia suites (around 30 out of 97 taken as of yesterday at ave. $2100psf)....Trilight also selling reasonably well with ave. psf 1800 to 1900 now....New Launch Bukit Sembawang's The Vermont at Cairnhill aka besides VIDA lah....ranging $2500 psf to $3000 psf.....(take-up rates to be seen lah...) you mean we have so many "high rollers" around........

    c'mon, resale not moving because:-
    (1) banks have problems since jan'10 to match sellers' asking prices valuations....also
    (2) resale sellers now keep on shifting goal posts as prices of new launches keep going up.....
    (3) agents not so keen to service resale market with the new launch market so hot and easy to move....sell 1 new launch 0.3% and 1 resale 1 to 1.5% is like selling 3 to 4 new equivalent to 1 resale....why not go for new launch that sell like roti prata....
    (4) buyers have no time to react that the value of difference between the 2 is huge and in no time when this gap gets bigger it will push them to resale market...

    all property market boom is like that : New Launch (first movers); then nearby subsale (better value); then resale (no fish prawn also good - let's not miss out the party).

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    Gentlemen

    Both of you are correct at some points. Interesting pointers.

    Thanks for sharing.

    Cheers

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner, 17 March 2010 10.50 am
    Gentlemen

    Both of you are correct at some points. Interesting pointers.

    Thanks for sharing.

    Cheers
    To me, patience is key and one should not jump to conclusion on the market too early.

    I believe everyone here will be smiling soon to the bank with the profit from their subsales of The Wharf Residence.

    Good luck, people!

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    Quote Originally Posted by saab
    Your perspective is from that of a casino's gambler. Your crystal ball sees only a gambler's mentality of "hoping" to buy a new launch from a developer at outright 15% plus minus price higher in today's market context for a "pass" (that's what you call an option) for 3 to 4 years "hoping" to offload at a profit along the way, while serving progressive payments blah blah blah...('cos no IAS now). But the gambler will soon realise that the gap between the new launch and resale are widening at very fast pace with current rate going......

    Look at these:- Cairnhill's Urban Suites ($2800 psf ave. almost 100% sold, if subsales can be found in market now guess how much?); Laurels ($3000 psf ave. - 135 taken up out of 179 previewed on last weekend); L'VIV ($2050 psf ave. - 110 taken up out of 147 officially launched only last weekend too); Altez (from $2250 psf now selling the 2 bedrooms loft at #30 floor and above and guess what already as of yesterday 15 units out of 36 available have been snapped up and feo not releasing any more units as of now...); waterscape at cavenagh (from $2000 psf now with limited units left out of 190 over launch since jan'10...); centennia suites (around 30 out of 97 taken as of yesterday at ave. $2100psf)....Trilight also selling reasonably well with ave. psf 1800 to 1900 now....New Launch Bukit Sembawang's The Vermont at Cairnhill aka besides VIDA lah....ranging $2500 psf to $3000 psf.....(take-up rates to be seen lah...) you mean we have so many "high rollers" around........

    c'mon, resale not moving because:-
    (1) banks have problems since jan'10 to match sellers' asking prices valuations....also
    (2) resale sellers now keep on shifting goal posts as prices of new launches keep going up.....
    (3) agents not so keen to service resale market with the new launch market so hot and easy to move....sell 1 new launch 0.3% and 1 resale 1 to 1.5% is like selling 3 to 4 new equivalent to 1 resale....why not go for new launch that sell like roti prata....
    (4) buyers have no time to react that the value of difference between the 2 is huge and in no time when this gap gets bigger it will push them to resale market...

    all property market boom is like that : New Launch (first movers); then nearby subsale (better value); then resale (no fish prawn also good - let's not miss out the party).
    (1) banks have problems since jan'10 to match sellers' asking prices valuations....also
    bearish sign. Don't fight the banks. they are smarter than you. they know that there is no demand for luxury condos on the resale market.

    (2) resale sellers now keep on shifting goal posts as prices of new launches keep going up.....
    it is a free country. let them keep their unoccupied condos unoccupied. Who are we to tell these guys" enough is enough, don't inflict more pain on yourself."

    (3) agents not so keen to service resale market with the new launch market so hot and easy to move....sell 1 new launch 0.3% and 1 resale 1 to 1.5% is like selling 3 to 4 new equivalent to 1 resale....why not go for new launch that sell like roti prata....
    Don't fight the agents, who know that the resale market for luxury condos is not moving. they, like the banks, are smarter than you and me. bearish sign again.

    (4) buyers have no time to react that the value of difference between the 2 is huge and in no time when this gap gets bigger it will push them to resale market...
    They are smarter than you are giving them credit for. They are not buying in the resale market, because they are in the market not to buy condos to live in to begin with, but rather to enjoy the thrills of gambling.

    As I said, if you own a luxury condo, you are cooked. be prepared to lose 30 to 40% in the second half of the year.

    Last edited by stalingrad; 17-03-10 at 12:34.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    If you own a luxury condos like duchess residences, you are cooked. you should at least lose 40% if not more. owners of duchess residences have lost 20% even if you think the prices asked are indicative of the market value.
    LOL...the big test will come when duchess residences TOP in Q3 2010....will be very interesting.

    There's a big penthouse, 2756sq ft, bought at 1811psf at the peak (one of the "cheaper" penthouse/garden mansionette already, there are others who bought at 1800+ to 2xxx psf). Cut loss at 1399psf at the bottom of the market. lost 22.7%. Some may say this guy is dumb but i think its not so bad. I can't imagine if he has to compete with another 23 penthouses and 24 garden mansionettes to sell when the project TOPs. Even if only 10 out of these 47 units are for sale also don't know if can find buyers. $4m or $5m for these, i think many would rather put their money closer to town or a better located, older development like Gallop Green.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    LOL...the big test will come when duchess residences TOP in Q3 2010....will be very interesting.

    There's a big penthouse, 2756sq ft, bought at 1811psf at the peak (one of the "cheaper" penthouse/garden mansionette already, there are others who bought at 1800+ to 2xxx psf). Cut loss at 1399psf at the bottom of the market. lost 22.7%. Some may say this guy is dumb but i think its not so bad. I can't imagine if he has to compete with another 23 penthouses and 24 garden mansionettes to sell when the project TOPs. Even if only 10 out of these 47 units are for sale also don't know if can find buyers. $4m or $5m for these, i think many would rather put their money closer to town or a better located, older development like Gallop Green.
    We actually went to the showflat, which the developer hired buses to take investors/gamblers to. By the mountain of flip flops and slippers at the entrance, we knew we came too late. Our suspicion was confirmed when we entered. Only the maisonettes remained. the last "normal unit was sold at $2200 psf.

    there have been 3 subsales since the launch, none of which were even close to the launch price. the most recent one was at $1,600.

    This serves as a warning to those speculators on the market today.

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