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Thread: Property market sentiments 2010

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    85% of units in CDL's Cube 8 sold
    Ephraim Seow
    Channel NewsAsia
    Monday, 25 January 2010, 2125 hrs



    City Developments (CDL) said it has sold 85% of the units in its Cube 8 development, located at the former Albany and Thomson Mansion site along Thomson Road. Private previews for the former sites' owners, directors and staff of CDL started last Thursday and the public preview began on Friday. Over the weekend, all the 1- and 2-bedroom apartments have been sold.

    Singaporeans made up the majority of buyers. Permanent residents and foreigners mainly from the region, India and Europe bought 25% of the units.

    The 36-storey freehold development comprises 177 units of 1- to 2-bedroom apartments and sky villas, ranging from 560 sqft to 3,229 sqft in size. The launch was at an average price of S$1,250 psf, with a marginal increase of 2% to 3% for subsequent release.

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    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    And when I was looking at Opera Estate landed housing last year, a few of the terrace houses which I considered at $1.3M to $1.5M were bought by their owners more than 20 years ago for $1M to $1.4M (just go to the caveats lodged in INLIS and you can see the original prices, or a FOC way is to consult nationproperty.sg).
    Hmmm ... this is strange.

    If you refer to the Straits Times Classifieds on 11 Sep 1989, which was 21 years ago, a renovated terrace house at Opera Estate was asking for only $300k (negotiable) (circled in red).



    For $1.36M, you could get a bungalow in district 10 Holland Heights !!! (circled in blue).

    Just below this blue circle, a 3,500 sq ft semi-D off Holland Road would set you back by only $718k !!!

    Looking at all these old classifieds really makes me more and more depressed.

    Just look further down, you could actually get a 26,000 sq ft Good Class Bungalow at Brizay Park, off Bukit Timah, for only $3.0M.

    Whereas today ...

    Listed 16 January 2010

    Brizay Park Bungalow

    This Property is Already Cobroked
    Code: 4073399
    Date: 16-01-10
    Price (S$): 18,500,000
    S$ Per Sq. Feet: 1,850
    Name: BRIZAY PARK
    Road: BRIZAY PARK
    District: 10
    Bedrooms: 8
    Built-in (sq. feet): 10,000
    Land (sq. feet): 17,600 Only !!! That's smaller than the 26,000 sq ft bungalow listed in the 1989 classifieds above !!!
    Type: BUNGALOW
    Tenure: FREEHOLD
    Remarks:
    $18.5M LISTED ON 16/01/2010. POOL


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    We will never see this kind of increases now, as Singaporeans are getting poorer and poorer, maybe in GCB sector but not for the rest, I remember the 90s as the golden age of Singapore where COEs were $100K.

    The trends now for Singaporeans is usually 1 to 2 bedroom units or sub 1,000 sqft 3 bedders, sigh.

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    Signs of a mild property fever as private home sales gather pace
    Developers have sold over 900 units this month as bullish sentiment returns
    Kalpana Rashiwala
    The Business Times
    Tuesday, 26 January 2010

    Developers have sold more than 900 private homes so far this month - based on BT's poll of developers and property agents - and with another week to go, the tally is easily expected to cross 1,000 units by month's end.


    Cube8: CDL has sold about 150 of the total 177 units in the Thomson Road project since it began previewing it last week

    Besides Allgreen Properties' Holland Residences, which will be previewed this week, Wing Tai is said to be at an advanced stage of preparation for an imminent preview for L'Viv at Newton Road. The average price is touted at about $1,900 psf - $2,000 psf - significantly higher than the $1,700 psf average price at which Ho Bee is selling its Trilight condo nearby.

    Wing Tai is eyeing a higher psf price by offering smallish units (thus keeping the absolute lump sum price per unit 'affordable' to potential buyers). The developer is said to be packaging its project with Deferred Payment Scheme as it had clinched approval for it before the scheme was scrapped in 2007.

    L'Viv comprises a total of 147 units - 72 units have 1 bedroom and a study and these come in 2 sizes, both 600-sq ft plus; another 72 units have 2 bedrooms and a study (all about 1,000 sqft); and there are 3 penthouses (all 3-bedders).

    Trilight does not have any 1-bedders. It has 2-, 3- and 4-bedders as well as penthouses. 2-bedders range from 1,100 to 1,200 sqft.


    'Frankly, it's very hard to deter people from buying, if you look at how strong the HDB resale market is. There's very strong bottom-up support.'

    - Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng,
    . when asked if the authorities are likely to come up with

    . fresh measures to cool the market if another round of
    . buying frenzy builds up


    Fortune Development is also slated to begin previewing this week RV Edge in the River Valley/Shanghai Road vicinity. The 108-unit freehold project, being marketed by Huttons, comprises mostly smallish apartments ranging from 1-bedders to 2-bedroom with study units. The smallest unit is about 400 sqft. Prices are expected to start from $600,000-plus per apartment.

    City Developments Ltd (CDL) said yesterday evening that it has sold about 85% or about 150 of the the total 177 units at its Cube 8 condo at Thomson Road, which it began previewing last week.

    Singaporeans bought 75% of the units sold. The other 25% were picked up by permanent residents (PRs) and other foreigners - mainly from Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Korea, India, China and Europe.

    The District 11 freehold project was initially priced at $1,250 psf on average but prices were upped 2-3% for subsequent releases.

    CDL group general manager Chia Ngiang Hong said in a statement that the buyers were an 'equal mix of owner-occupiers and investors' and that this pointed to the development's appeal to both home owners and investors.

    Some market watchers suggest, however, that the project has probably also drawn a fair number of specuvestors. Slightly over half of the total 177 units comprised one and two bedders and these were the first to go, mirroring the pattern for other projects that were launched in Districts 9, 10 and 11 last year.

    In addition to the buying buzz created this month from the release of new projects, some developers have been pleasantly surprised with a steady stream of activity even for existing projects that have been on the market for at least a few months. For instance, Ho Bee Investment has sold about 60 units at its Parvis condo at Holland Hill and 10 units at Trilight since the start of the year.

    CDL is also understood to have sold more than 50 units at its Livia condo in Pasir Ris this month and the 724-unit project is now left with about 10 units.

    'Sentiment has picked in the mid and high-end markets because of the improvement in the economy; the imminent opening of the two integrated resorts (IRs) may also have given a psychological boost to foreign buying interest, which seems to be returning,' says Ho Bee executive director Ong Chong Hua.

    Agreeing, a fellow developer said: 'We're seeing a bigger variety of buyers from the region this round - including markets like Myanmar and Laos.'

    UOL Group has sold this month 25 units at Double Bay Residences in Simei and 18 units at Meadows @ Peirce along Upper Thomson Road. The group plans to launch two projects in the first half of this year - a 99-year-leasehold condo with about 600-plus units at Dakota Crescent and a project with some 170 units on the Rainbow Gardens site in the Toh Tuck area. The latter will be a joint development with LaSalle Asia Opportunity II fund.

    Developers' home sales slipped below the 1,000-unit per month mark in Q4 last year as they wound down their launch activities towards year-end. Some potential buyers had also grown cautious following the government's measures in September to cool the property fever.

    However, fear of missing the boat appears to be re-igniting with strong signs of another round of price hikes this year.

    'For the economy, the worst is over and much of the physical infrastructure investment like the IRs is close to completion,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.

    Asked if the authorities are likely to come up with fresh measures to cool the market if another wave of buying frenzy builds up, Mr Tan said: 'Frankly, it's very hard to deter people from buying, if you look at how strong the HDB resale market is. There's very strong bottom-up support.'

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    Singapore’s production climbs at fastest pace in 5 months
    Bloomberg
    Singapore
    Tuesday, 26 January 2010, 1.03 pm CCT

    Singapore’s industrial production rebounded in December and rose at the fastest pace in 5 months as higher demand for electronics and chemicals offset a drop in pharmaceuticals output.

    Manufacturing, which accounts for about a quarter of Singapore’s economy, gained 14.4% in December from a year earlier following a revised 9.5% decline in November, the Economic Development Board said today. The median forecast of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 7.4% gain.

    Singapore’s electronics shipments ended an almost 3-year slump last month, even as the government said Jan. 11 that overseas demand may grow at a “sluggish pace.” The island’s dependence on electronics and pharmaceutical exports has made it vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand and business cycles, pushing it into a deeper slowdown than many neighbors last year.

    “Production seems to be picking up with the improvement in exports and that would be in line with the patterns around the region,” David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore, said before the report. “These numbers are always tricky with the volatile pharmaceuticals component.”

    Singapore’s industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 18.1% in December from the previous month, when it slid a revised 4.6%.

    Manufacturing climbed 2.2% in the fourth quarter, more than the 1% gain estimated by the government on Jan. 4, today’s report showed. Production fell 4.1% in 2009, matching the decline in 2008.

    Electronics Output

    Electronics production climbed 57.3% last month from a year earlier, following a revised 13.9% gain in November. Electronics make up about 26% of total manufacturing output.

    Pharmaceutical production, which accounts for about 20% of manufacturing, slipped 16.3% after declining a revised 52.6% in the previous month. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, production gained 23.9% in December.

    Production may rise in the coming months as more companies open plants in Singapore. Royal Dutch Shell Plc opened a monoethylene glycol plant in Singapore last quarter, while Renewable Energy Corp., a Norwegian maker of solar-power components, is scheduled to start production in Singapore this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Hmmm ... this is strange.

    If you refer to the Straits Times Classifieds on 11 Sep 1989, which was 21 years ago, a renovated terrace house at Opera Estate was asking for only $300k (negotiable) (circled in red).
    If my memory never fails me....Opera where got so high 20 years back....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    If my memory never fails me....Opera where got so high 20 years back....
    I mean where got 1 to 1.2 m

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    Quote Originally Posted by xebay11
    We will never see this kind of increases now, as Singaporeans are getting poorer and poorer, maybe in GCB sector but not for the rest, I remember the 90s as the golden age of Singapore where COEs were $100K.

    The trends now for Singaporeans is usually 1 to 2 bedroom units or sub 1,000 sqft 3 bedders, sigh.
    Do you realise that what you have just wrote is testimony to our Great Religion - Propertism - the belief that property prices will always go up in the long term simply because paper money will eventually lose all its value?

    It's not that Singaporeans are "getting poorer and poorer", it's just that properties are "getting dearer and dearer".

    The trend now is for smaller and smaller units simply because property prices are becoming higher and higher.

    If you check the income statistics over the past 40 years, you will see that the people are not "getting poorer and poorer" when measured against paper money.

    People are becoming "poorer and poorer" only when measured against properties.

    So the moral of the story ...

    GRAB WHILE YOU CAN !!!

    Let me show you a graphic illustration of what $500,000 can buy you at different stages in Singapore's history.

    1930's - This Building at Raffles Place


    1970's - Queen Astrid Park Bungalow (30,000 sq ft)



    1980's - Geylang Road Terrace (3,000 sq ft)!!!



    1990's - 2 Bdrm Serangoon Ave 3 Condo Springbloom (893 sq ft).

    Note: Only ONE unit (not the whole building).

    2000's - HDB 5-Room Flat near Chinatown


    2010's - HDB 2-Room Flat Near Chinatown (forecasted)

    13 Jan 2010

    Two-room flat costs more than a four-room

    [Photo: Mr Adrian Wee (28, left) of OrangeTee was the agent who handled the transaction for the former home owner, Mr Tan (43, right).]

    A two-room flat in Chinatown was sold for $245,000 recently, creating a new record for the re-sale price of HDB two-room flats.
    Located at Jalan Kukoh, the flat is on a higher floor of block 10, and is about 40 years old.

    Propertism Exam Question

    If you have $500,000 today and are given the following choices, what would you do?

    A. Take a time machine back to 1930's and purchase that plot of land that this building is now sitting on at Raffles Place


    B. Keep worrying about the "Next Asia Crisis" and wait till this record-breaking HDB 2-Room Flat near Chinatown reaches $500,000

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    I mean where got 1 to 1.2 m
    my apologies. i was checking so many places last year that i made a mistake in my post yesterday. Opera Estate transacted at around $1M and above from 1993 onwards, and thereafter prices stagnated for a long while.

    for example, based on inlis search of 2 terang bulan (lot 1956), it was transacted at $1.4m on 25 aug 1994. 15 years later in aug 2009, it was transacted at $1.38m. And this is not an isolated case in opera estate. I have attached a norma terrace transaction below. What I was trying to say in my yesterday's post is that property is not aways the best and most reliable means of investment, and a wrong move might mean years of pain down the road, hope this clarifies.

    http://www3.nationproperty.com.sg/np....aspx?r=321238

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    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    my apologies. i was checking so many places last year that i made a mistake in my post yesterday. Opera Estate transacted at around $1M and above from 1993 onwards, and thereafter prices stagnated for a long while.

    for example, based on inlis search of 2 terang bulan (lot 1956), it was transacted at $1.4m on 25 aug 1994. 15 years later in aug 2009, it was transacted at $1.38m. And this is not an isolated case in opera estate. I have attached a norma terrace transaction below. What I was trying to say in my yesterday's post is that property is not aways the best and most reliable means of investment, and a wrong move might mean years of pain down the road, hope this clarifies.

    http://www3.nationproperty.com.sg/np....aspx?r=321238

    Opera Estate always reminds me this place is damn hot, dun know why. Also clamp feeling to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    Opera Estate always reminds me this place is damn hot, dun know why. Also clamp feeling to me.
    u are right. property is all about location location and location. pay the wrong price for the wrong location, want to sell for a decent gain might take years or never.

    how's sentosa cove? what's your take on that place?

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    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian

    how's sentosa cove? what's your take on that place?

    Amenities have to be completed before you feel there's life in Sentosa. Right now only seaview...can't have seaview for breakfast/lunch/dinner....

    Difference investment, Sail you can find a unit about 1m plus...Same for MBR...Sentosa entry level at least 2m plus....

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    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    What I was trying to say in my yesterday's post is that property is not aways the best and most reliable means of investment, and a wrong move might mean years of pain down the road, hope this clarifies.
    That's precisely why we need the Propertism religion - to counter the pain.

    If property prices go up continuously all the time, then there is no pain and hence there is no need for Propertism - the faith that property prices will always go up in the long term.

    If there is no pain, then what is there to separate Property_Owner, who owns 40+ properties, from the regular Joe?

    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    Sometimes i wish life is just simple as a regular Joe. Can u imagine how it feels after Lehman's. After prices heads south. during e worse days, agents calling me everyday giving me 1300psf for my Reflection, 1500psf for my MBR, 1700psf for Ardmore 2. Asking me how's my business. Trying to test if I'm bleeding. Telling nightmares are coming, winter is here. Sell or you see blood...... One wrong move and i'm heading to my grave, another unforgiving event will wipe out my assets...''PAIN=GAIN=RISK=PAIN''
    In my post above, I am sure everyone would have chosen A. But A is the one that's going to cause much pain. Starting with this ...


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    if pty prices keep going up to the sky n people's salaries remains fixed, PAP will get voted out in no time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    if pty prices keep going up to the sky n people's salaries remains fixed, PAP will get voted out in no time.
    Questions.

    Which type of property prices? Which "people"?
    Private or public? The 20% or the 80%?

    Is the average salary not moving up?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    if pty prices keep going up to the sky n people's salaries remains fixed, PAP will get voted out in no time.
    The following Saints of Propertism have the answer for you.

    “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before morning.”
    - Henry Ford


    “The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money
    - Adam Smith


    “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.”
    - Alan Greenspan, Gold and Economic Freedom (1968)



    “If the governments devalue the currency in order to betray all creditors, you politely call this procedure “inflation.”
    - George Bernard Shaw


    “The modern banking process manufactures currency out of nothing.”.
    - Lord Josiah Stemp, Former Director of the Bank of England (1937)


    “At the end fiat money returns to its inner value—zero.”
    - Voltaire


    Isn't it amazing how these Saints of Propertism, born in different countries and centuries apart, and who had not even visited Singapore before, were able to predict the relentless rise in property prices here in Singapore despite:

    1. World War II 1945
    2. Konfrontasi War with Indonesia 1963
    3. Racial Riots 1964
    4. Oil Crisis 1973
    5. Vietnam War 1975
    6. First Singapore Recession 1985
    7. Gulf War 1991
    8. Asian Financial Crisis 1997
    9. Dot Com Burst 2000
    10. September 11, 2001
    11. SARS 2003
    12. Lehman Brothers 2008

    How would these Saints know that the following bungalow asking $500,000 in 1977 ...



    Would today be asking $26.8 Million?

    For Sale -Queen Astrid Bungalow (D10)

    S$ 26,800,000 Negotiable
    Development Name: Queen Astrid Bungalow
    Property Type: Good Class Bungalow
    Tenure: Freehold
    # of Floors: 2
    Land area: 25,500 sqft (2,369 sqm)


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    Quote Originally Posted by CNA

    HDB to construct its one millionth flat, capping 50 yrs of achievements
    S. Ramesh
    Channel NewsAsia
    Tuesday, 26 January 2010, 2048 hrs

    ..........
    ..........

    He added: "Finding a roof over our heads is no longer the pressing requirement. The HDB flat is not just a shelter but also a key investment asset. People have many considerations in choosing their flats - they want the right flat, in the right locality, at the right time and at the right price.

    "Such high expectations are understandable since buying a flat is a major commitment for a young couple setting up a home together."

    And HDB is committed to providing high quality housing, even though it cannot accommodate every preference or expectation.

    The prime minister also emphasised a point expressed several times by other ministers and very much an ongoing concern amongst flat buyers in the rising property market. And that is the government's commitment to keeping HDB flat prices affordable for Singaporeans.

    But Mr Lee said the government has less control over prices in the resale market.

    He explained: "These resale prices are set by individual households who transact flats on a willing-buyer, willing-seller basis, and are affected by movements and sentiments in the wider economy, including in the private property market.

    "Hence, resale prices of HDB flats will fluctuate from year-to-year. But over the long term, the value of HDB flats depends on the strength of the Singapore economy."

    So provided Singapore continues to do well, Mr Lee is confident the flats will maintain their value and Singaporeans can enjoy an appreciating asset.
    Seems like managing HDB flats is a big challenge.

    It is a key investment asset for 80% of the population. The manager has to ensure that it is an appreciating asset for them. Otherwise, the manager will be booted out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter, 26 January 2010 11.02 pm
    Perhaps it is no biggie for Southbank afterall.

    If Northwood in District 25 Sembawang can do $710 psf, surely Southbank in District 7 can do $1,438 psf or better right?
    Oh! And District-9 Watermark Robertson Quay's resale has a nëw hïgh.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter, Watermark Robertson Quay, 27 January 2010 1.52 am
    I am not sure if that $1,400-psf seller is a happy man.
    But I do know this latest seller who has recorded a nëw hïgh of $1,404 psf is a happy man. He should be as his unit is 5 levels lower than the former's.


    Watermark Robertson Quay
    Address ....................... psf .............. Area ........ Price ............. Contract Date
    1 Rodyk Street #04-09 .... $1,404 psf o.. 926 sqft .... $1,300,000 ..... 30 Dec 09

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Questions.

    Which type of property prices? Which "people"?
    Private or public? The 20% or the 80%?

    Is the average salary not moving up?
    Good questions !!!

    The pay of fresh graduates have been around $2,000 per month for the past 20 years.



    However, the pay of top earners (used in the Ministerial salary benchmarks) have defintely gone up.

    Between 1989 and 2008, the average annual salary of a top banker has increased from $1.7 million to $6 million (3.5 times); a top MNC CEO from $765,000 to $5.38 million (7 times); a top lawyer from $1 to $5 million (5 times); a top accountant from $870,000 to $3.6 million (4 times); a top Local CEO from $597,000 to $3.54 million (6 times); a top engineer from $338,000 to $930,000 (3 times).





    So you can see the trend that the salaries at the bottom, which was already very low, have stagnated over the past 20 years.

    Whereas the salaries at the top, which was already very high, have gone up around 5 times over the same period.

    Now, when working out the supply and demand of properties, one of the most mistaken assumptions is that one person is entitled to buy only one property. That is not true. There is no law that says one person is entitled to buy only one property. It is possible that one person can be holding 40+ properties .

    Using the above tables for illustration, the CEO of a local toothpaste manufacturer , for example, who used to earn only $597,000 p.a. back in 1989, could now be earning $3.54 million p.a.

    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    China’s billionaires rise to 130 despite global crisis
    i want to go china sell toothpaste. if my brand is a hit, i be joining them on e list soon
    With an income of $3.54 million p.a., he can buy three The Sails per year. So in another 10 years, he can buy another 30 Sails. That is on top of his current 40+ properties.

    If this CEO succeeds in expanding to China and joins the ranks of the billionaires, then he can buy 1000's of properties.

    After all, what is the use of money other than to buy properties? I really cannot think of any significant thing to buy, other than properties.

    Please don't tell me to place the money in the bank and wait for it to diminish to ZERO, or invest in those bonds and whatever rubbish financial instruments. I want something I can touch and feel. And there is nothing more real and touchable than "Real Estate".

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    hear hear! the oracle has spoken! I also cannot think of anything else to buy other than properties, except perhaps a lambo. but the brain says no, you can put downpayment on 3 properties with that money!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    if pty prices keep going up to the sky n people's salaries remains fixed, PAP will get voted out in no time.
    According to stats from gov, average/median salary of employed household has at least gone up by 45% since year 2000. And 35% of household has income more than 7k per month in year 2008. About 23% of household has combined income more than 10k per month in year 2008.

    This does not mean entry level salary has gone up so much, it just reflects the reality that we have more dual-income family. And the top earners are making more money than ever.

    http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/pape...ple/op-s15.pdf

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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    According to stats from gov, average/median salary of employed household has at least gone up by 45% since year 2000. And 35% of household has income more than 7k per month in year 2008. About 23% of household has combined income more than 10k per month in year 2008.

    This does not mean entry level salary has gone up so much, it just reflects the reality that we have more dual-income family. And the top earners are making more money than ever.

    http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/pape...ple/op-s15.pdf
    Makes sense to me.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Business Times

    Wägës rïsë, debts slow and Singaporeans get rïchër
    Households have weathered crisis relatively well: MAS
    Siow LiSen
    The Business Times
    Tuesday, 10 November 2009

    Singaporeans are getting richer as household dëbt has risen slöwer thän wägë gröwth, financial crisis notwithstanding. Add high property prices and the rëlüctäncë to spënd freely and you havehöüsëhöld ässëts standing at mörë thän 6 tïmës the household dëbts.

    'Households have on the whole weathered the crisis relatively well, thanks to strong balance sheets,' according to the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) Financial Stability Review 2009 released yesterday.

    'The asset quality of household loans has not deteriorated significantly and so should not affect the stability of the banking system,' it said.

    Household net wealth stood at an äll-tïmë hïgh, an estimated $1,001 billion in Q3 2009, after hitting a trough at $895 billion in Q1 2009. This is also more than double that of $400 billion plus in 1999.

    Aggregate household net wealth is at about 4 times of gross domestic product, up from about 3.6 times in Q1 2009.

    Still, the MAS said the healthy position is not uniform across all homes.
    'Those who were retrenched or highly leveraged would likely have come under more pressure,' it said.

    As Singaporeans maintain dïscïplïnë in taking on consumer debt, assets remain more than 6 times the household liabilities.

    Cäsh and CPF balances alone have ëxcëëdëd total household lïäbïlïtïës since 2006.

    After declining in Q4 2007 and Q1 2009, household holdings of equity and managed funds are estimated to have recovered by about 40% to $150 billion in Q3 2009, in tandem with the rising global equity markets.

    Similarly, property holdings have turned around, up by an estimated 9% to $537 billion in Q3 2009 from the low of $491 billion in Q2 2009.

    Total liabilities increased moderately by 4.4% year-on-year in Q3 2009, which is much lower than the long-term average growth rate of about 13%. Most of the increase came from housing loans, which account for the bulk of household borrowing. After moderating from around 15% in Q4 2007 to 8.8% in Q4 2008, housing loan growth has seen a recent uptick to 12% in Q3 2009 due to increased activity in the property market.

    Other types of household dëbt such as credit cards, car loans and share financing grew at a slüggïsh päcë.

    Share financing loan growth recovered from negative territory in Q2 2009 to 18% in Q3 2009, along with the rebound in the stock markets.

    Share financing represents less than 1% of total household debt currently.

    Credit card löän growth slöwed from 19.5% in Q3 2008 to 11.4% in Q3 2009 while car löäns shränk by 2.2% in Q3 2009 as a result of falling car sales.

    Credit card loans comprise a relatively small share of total household debt at about 3% as of Q3 2009.

    Household remuneration growth has outpaced the rate of increase in household debt in the last few years and the household debt to remuneration ratio has been falling.

    'However, the ratio may rise this year, as the downturn would likely constrain wage growth. As of June 2009, average wages had contracted 2.1% year-on-year, compared to a 3.8% rise in household liabilities over the same period,' the MAS said.

    Looking ahead, households may be tempted to take on more leverage in the short term, given strong market sentiment in the domestic equity and property markets and expectations that low interest rates could persist for some time, it said.

    'This might expose households to increased risks in light of the still uncertain paths of economic recovery and interest rates. The current healthy balance sheet position suggests that households in general would be well placed to weather these downside risks.'


  23. #83
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    Softer interest rates hurt DBS more
    Siow LiSen
    The Business Times
    Wednesday, 27 January 2010

    Contrary to expectations, interest rates in Singapore have weakened, albeit marginally, from mid-December levels. But while the fall is small, it is not good news for banking giant DBS Group Holdings.

    The key 3-month Sibor or Singapore interbank offered rate has eased from 0.68542% to 0.68328% on Dec 14 and has slid a tiny bit more to 0.67808% since Jan 14.

    It's a bit of a head scratcher because all the expectations had been for a tightening, all the more so because of China's move to rein in its monetary policy earlier than speculated.

    Since the 3rd quarter last year, many have forecast that interest rates would rise gradually this year as governments try to implement exit packages because of worries over deficits and inflationary pressures.

    Consumer prices rose an average 0.2% last year after gaining 6.5% in 2008.

    The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has forecast that inflation will average 2.5 to 3.5% this year.

    Sibor may have slipped because of larger inflows from expectations that the MAS will let the local dollar rise in its next policy monetary review in April.

    Of course, the interest rate direction could turn any day now and the movements in Sibor have been too slight to be significant for most people. But for DBS, which has huge amounts of deposits and is faced with projected sluggish loans growth, a flat or even small fall in interest rates could be a headache.

    Growth for the loans sector was a weak 1.8% in November 2009, as shown by latest available data.

    Writing yesterday, Leng Seng Choon of DMG & Partners said that he expects DBS to post a stronger FY09 net profit, but due largely to the robust trading income of the first nine months in 2009, a volatile segment. DBS reports FY09 results on Feb 5.

    Mr Leng is projecting FY09 net profit of $2.14 billion, up 11% from FY08. While FY09's other non-interest income is expected to be robust (with 9M09 recording $667 million, up 84% year-on-year, due mainly to a strong showing in the volatile trading income), this could be largely negated by provisions surging 58%, a consequence of the global economic downturn.

    'We forecast weak FY10 core earnings growth, on the back of continued Sibor weakness and soft loan expansion,' he said. He noted that the 3-month Sibor averaged 0.68% in 4Q09, similar to that in 3Q09. This was half the 1.33% for 2008.

    DBS, with a low S$ loan-deposit ratio of 56.9% (versus 71.2% for the overall group), will enjoy lower interbank yields, which could keep its Singapore net interest margin narrow, he said.

    Even with a higher spread from the Hong Kong interbank rate, which is a positive for its DBS Hong Kong unit, this will be somewhat offset by increased loan competition there.

    Mr Leng forecasts narrower net interest margin for DBS compared with its peers.

    Fundamentally, this should be a good year for DBS as long as the economy continues on its recovery. But DBS's strength and Achilles heel have always been the same - the fact that it is government-linked, and so depositors feel safe and leave their money there. The bank has tried to counter this by paying almost nothing for deposits.

    Still, at the end of September 2009, DBS's deposits still grew 1% from the previous quarter to $180.2 billion. That was 65% more than the $116.5 billion held at United Overseas Bank and way above OCBC's $96.9 billion.

    If interest rates remain soft, DBS will face a much tougher climb with its mountain of deposits. A silver lining here could be that it won't be so bad for borrowers.

  24. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by orange
    hear hear! the oracle has spoken! I also cannot think of anything else to buy other than properties, except perhaps a lambo. but the brain says no, you can put downpayment on 3 properties with that money!
    Actually for cars, there's a sort of vacuum once you go above $300K.

    Like Reporter said, he couldn't understand the logic of paying more than double for an AMG.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    So why pay more than double the money for a 612hp car when all the owner needs is a 216hp S260 (not even 231hp S300)?

    I hope the day will come for me to understand the logic. ... but then ... I think this day is unlikely to come. Meanwhile, I will just continue to stress my 6 pistons to play catch up.
    As for the likes of Rolls Royce and Bentley, they're too big (read: unaffordable ) and only suitable for tycoons ... e.g. Property_Owner.

    So conclusion: Properties are still the best things to buy.

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    now that stocks are heading south, maybe equities are looking attractive all over again, especially since i off-loaded most of my stuffs few weeks back....

    maybe when OCBC hits $5.50, DBS hits $9, I will start accumulating again. and maybe SPH as well.... yield is not too bad...

    anyone into stocks here too? focus?

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    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    now that stocks are heading south, maybe equities are looking attractive all over again, especially since i off-loaded most of my stuffs few weeks back....

    maybe when OCBC hits $5.50, DBS hits $9, I will start accumulating again. and maybe SPH as well.... yield is not too bad...

    anyone into stocks here too? focus?

    At those prices? Yeah, sure, why not? I'm in

    Might want to start a thread for stocks though. Don't want to hijack this thread for Property Market Sentiments...

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    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian, 27 January 2010 7.47 pm
    now that stocks are heading south, maybe equities are looking attractive all over again, especially since i off-loaded most of my stuffs few weeks back....

    maybe when OCBC hits $5.50, DBS hits $9, I will start accumulating again. and maybe SPH as well.... yield is not too bad...

    anyone into stocks here too? focus?
    Quote Originally Posted by bernardy, 27 January 2010 11.03 pm
    At those prices? Yeah, sure, why not? I'm in

    Might want to start a thread for stocks though. Don't want to hijack this thread for Property Market Sentiments...
    Thanks for your understanding.

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    Good News!!! Good News!!!

    A 2,200 sq ft terrace house right here in Singapore can now be bought for only $500k!!!

    That's reported in The New Paper 27 January 2010.

    Yes!!! It's 2010, not 1990.

    You don't need a time machine to go back 20 years. You can buy it right now!!!

    What's more, the price of this terrace house is guaranteed to decrease with time!!!

    It was worth $600k when bought six years ago; today it's worth only $500k.

    What's going on? Has our Great Religion - Propertism - that says property prices will always go up in the long term, been proven wrong?



    They sit on a large plot of freehold land which belonged to Mr Koh Sek Lim, a property owner in the east who has since died.

    Mr Koh sold a 70-year lease for the land in the 1960s to several developers who built and marketed the houses there.

    Only 26 years remain on the lease of the land.

    WOW ...

    This Koh Sek Lim is really a man with great foresight !!!

    He's even more powerful than our Godfather of Propertism, FEO, who only recently woke up to the fact that land should only be bought. Not sold.

    No wonder there is a road named Koh Sek Lim Road, but no road named after the boss of FEO.

    This guy's really got great foresight.

    By the way, anyone here interested in buying?

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    Bad News!!! Bad News!!!

    Property prices could possibly crash after the next general election!!!

    The Straits Times - 27 Jan 2010



    Mr Lee's blunt remarks were in response to a question by dialogue moderator Tommy Koh, who pulled out a Straits Times report which said at least three opposition parties are keen to contest Tampines GRC that Mr Mah helms. -- ST PHOTO: LAU FOOK KONG

    THE current contentious issue on the affordability of public housing was given another airing by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew who cautioned Singaporeans not to cast a protest vote against the ruling party over this.

    As Singaporeans lament about rising flat prices, he said they ought to understand the Government sells them at a subsidised price, below market rate, so that they can own an asset that will appreciate in value over the years. It adds to their wealth and this is asset-enhancing policy Mr Lee believes citizens should not find fault with.

    If they do, they must be 'daft', he said at a dialogue during a housing conference as part of a series of events to mark the Housing Board's (HDB) 50th anniversary.

    "And if National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan is unable to defend this policy, 'he deserves to lose' at the next General Election, he quipped to laughter from the participants, including a chuckling Mr Mah.

    But if Mr Mah loses to the opposition, he warned that Singaporeans better sell their flats fast as it would no longer be of any value.

    WOW ... looks like our Great Religiion - Propertism - which believes that property prices will always rise in the long term, is under threat tonight!!!

    First, we have terrace houses with prices that decrease, rather than increase, with time!!!

    Now, we have MM warning that HDB flats could be no longer be of any value.

    If HDB flats become no longer be of any value, what will happen to private properties?

    Should I betray my own Propertism religious belief, that properties should only be bought but not sold, and sell off my entire portfolio of properties?

    Should Reporter quickly sell his District 9 condo, which he'd just recently bought in Nov 2009?

    Will Property_Owner, an old man with a weak heart who owns 40+ properties, suffer a heart attack?

    All these lie in the hands of Tampines GRC.

    Who here stays in Tampines GRC?
    Last edited by jlrx; 27-01-10 at 23:48.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Bad News!!! Bad News!!!

    Property prices could possibly crash after the next general election!!!

    The Straits Times - 27 Jan 2010



    Mr Lee's blunt remarks were in response to a question by dialogue moderator Tommy Koh, who pulled out a Straits Times report which said at least three opposition parties are keen to contest Tampines GRC that Mr Mah helms. -- ST PHOTO: LAU FOOK KONG

    THE current contentious issue on the affordability of public housing was given another airing by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew who cautioned Singaporeans not to cast a protest vote against the ruling party over this.

    As Singaporeans lament about rising flat prices, he said they ought to understand the Government sells them at a subsidised price, below market rate, so that they can own an asset that will appreciate in value over the years. It adds to their wealth and this is asset-enhancing policy Mr Lee believes citizens should not find fault with.

    If they do, they must be 'daft', he said at a dialogue during a housing conference as part of a series of events to mark the Housing Board's (HDB) 50th anniversary.

    "And if National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan is unable to defend this policy, 'he deserves to lose' at the next General Election, he quipped to laughter from the participants, including a chuckling Mr Mah.

    But if Mr Mah loses to the opposition, he warned that Singaporeans better sell their flats fast as it would no longer be of any value.

    WOW ... looks like our Great Religiion - Propertism - which believes that property prices will always rise in the long term, is under threat tonight!!!

    First, we have terrace houses with prices that decrease, rather than increase, with time!!!

    Now, we have MM warning that HDB flats could be no longer be of any value.

    If HDB flats become no longer be of any value, what will happen to private properties?

    Should I betray my own Propertism religious belief, that properties should only be bought but not sold, and sell off my entire portfolio of properties?

    Should Reporter quickly sell his District 9 condo, which he'd just recently bought in Nov 2009?

    Will Property_Owner, an old man with a weak heart who owns 40+ properties, suffer a heart attack?

    All these lie in the hands of Tampines GRC.

    Who here stays in Tampines GRC?
    I thought property prices was tied to how well the economy is doing, how come suddenly they say HDB prices was propped up by PAP.

    Anyway if property prices drop and my income don't drop, it will be a dream come true. GCB at Queen Astrid Park at $500k here I come.

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