The Minton (D19, 99 years leasehold, Kheng Leong)

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there will be a price differential, but it will not be substantial. Wait for orchard road prices to drop to 1,500 psf, and prices in the outlying regions to go up to 1,300 psf. the difference of 200psf accounts for the snob factor.

Ng Teng Fong will raise from his grave!!

[Wild Falcon]

Some of you are going out of point. Nobody is saying Orchard Road and suburbs will be the same price. It's whether the gap will become wider or smaller. Someone say the gap should be 10x and therefore everyone should buy Orchard Road properties today. But does Orchard Road property fetch 10x the rental? Obviously not - so cannot look at district labelling alone - must see beyond that. And if you really analyse the past 2 years, the gap is narrowing. And some River Valley and prime properties in D11 are getting VERY VERY TINY, while suburbs condo usually have a good mix a units (e.g. Minton) - and yet prices are narrowing.

As for Hollywood stars, have you watched those "Life of the Rich and Famous"? Most of them have homes in "ulu" places away from prying eyes in large mansions with swimming pools and landscape. Chances are, your Orchard Road condo will not appeal to them. More like some "ulu" bungalows away from the crowd lah. Bad analogy.

[Wild Falcon]

Orchard Road is not that cool lah, unless shopping is your #1 hobby To each his own. Hope your Orchard Road dream will become true soon! My friends no longer hang out in Orchard anymore - it's more like a mainland Chinese tourist and teenagers hangout. I prefer a home away from the shopping crowd - to each his own. The typical restaurant chains there are boring - some of the suburban owner-chef restaurants are actually better

And by the way, there are numerous River Valley condos way below 2000psf and its not that far from Orchard. Newton and Novena also got some only $1200psf. Unless you only want to stay in Orchard Residences above Ion - then I guess got to wait lor.

I stay in suburbs in a $550psf condo. I also hope what you say will come true. But I can only say that if my condo go up to $1,000psf and Orchard go down to $2000psf, I will shift immediately to a condo half the size in Orchard.

Bro, penny stock will always be penny stock, blue chip will always be blue chip. Its not just the amenities, its the prestige and distance from "town". Things like good-paying jobs, happening nightspots, high end shopping, fine dining will mostly be congregated in "town"

[gohsoonk]

Same here. If I could afford it, I would probably not stay in Orchard. I would prefer Sentosa. Get someone to take my food order and buy groceries for me. If bored, I can take yacht out to sea. If I want to drive out, take the Ferrari out and go to a nearby country club.

It is pretty exclusive until someone drowns in pool of coz. :P.

Of course, it is still a dream as of now...

Orchard Road is not that cool lah, unless shopping is your #1 hobby To each his own. Hope your Orchard Road dream will become true soon! My friends no longer hang out in Orchard anymore - it's more like a mainland Chinese tourist and teenagers hangout. I prefer a home away from the shopping crowd - to each his own. The typical restaurant chains there are boring - some of the suburban owner-chef restaurants are actually better

And by the way, there are numerous River Valley condos way below 2000psf and its not that far from Orchard. Newton and Novena also got some only $1200psf. Unless you only want to stay in Orchard Residences above Ion - then I guess got to wait lor.

[stalingrad]

Some of you are going out of point. Nobody is saying Orchard Road and suburbs will be the same price. It's whether the gap will become wider or smaller. Someone say the gap should be 10x and therefore everyone should buy Orchard Road properties today. But does Orchard Road property fetch 10x the rental? Obviously not - so cannot look at district labelling alone - must see beyond that. And if you really analyse the past 2 years, the gap is narrowing. And some River Valley and prime properties in D11 are getting VERY VERY TINY, while suburbs condo usually have a good mix a units (e.g. Minton) - and yet prices are narrowing.

As for Hollywood stars, have you watched those "Life of the Rich and Famous"? Most of them have homes in "ulu" places away from prying eyes in large mansions with swimming pools and landscape. Chances are, your Orchard Road condo will not appeal to them. More like some "ulu" bungalows away from the crowd lah. Bad analogy.

I am so glad that so many of you feel the same as me. My epiphany started many years when I visited a friend in d10. We stepped out of their place and drove home. One the way home, I said to my wife "hey, this place is no better than our home. Why did they pay 2,000 psf and we paid only..?" It is just so easy to draw the conclusion that the gap will narrow.

[kane]

most foreigners will think every part of singapore is very accessible and are willing to stay in the outskirts and commute. Case in point is Citylights or City Square.

for us who grew in Singapore, we'll know the surroundings for those two condos are considered "messy". but yet, i still don't understand why those areas can sell for over $1100psf. It's as good as amber road condos!

[devilplate]

most foreigners will think every part of singapore is very accessible and are willing to stay in the outskirts and commute. Case in point is Citylights or City Square.

for us who grew in Singapore, we'll know the surroundings for those two condos are considered "messy". but yet, i still don't understand why those areas can sell for over $1100psf. It's as good as amber road condos!

nowadays, got MRT/nice view+full condo facilities sure very popular liao

very hard to find such combi

[Wild Falcon]

City Square is very near to the city and has a shopping mall nearby and good food and MRT station as well. And the ang mohs like the Little India heritage - got character mah. Almost all Lonely Planet guidebooks will ask people to explore Little India and the sights and scents, but none will ask them to go Parkway Parade at Amber Road. No relevance in comparing City Sq and Amber Road - which is essentially a large concentration of high density condos with a shopping mall called Parkway Parade.

most foreigners will think every part of singapore is very accessible and are willing to stay in the outskirts and commute. Case in point is Citylights or City Square.

for us who grew in Singapore, we'll know the surroundings for those two condos are considered "messy". but yet, i still don't understand why those areas can sell for over $1100psf. It's as good as amber road condos!

[Wild Falcon]

And also, City Square even though is trading the same price as Amber Rd condos are fetching much better yields. A small 3-bedder at City Sq can easily go for >$5000 per month. But East Coast 3 bedders hover at $3k-$4k type. So if one look at fundamentals like yields, City Square would be consider undervalued while Amber area over-valued. So I think it's not fair to comment City Square is inferior - it takes only 15 min by public transport to reach Orchard Rd while Amber would need to take more than 45 minutes. So convenience and accessibility plays a part as well - for those without the special bonding to Parkway Parade - there's absolutely no need to stay near PP.

Not vested in City Square - just think the comparison with Amber Road condos is irrelevant because they are so different!

Korea 2 Greece 0

[kane]

my point really was, the traditional belief that downtown is the best is being turned on its head. suburb is fast catching up on downtown areas in what would be the most unlikely of places if we put ourselves 8years back in time.

[proud owner]

my point really was, the traditional belief that downtown is the best is being turned on its head. suburb is fast catching up on downtown areas in what would be the most unlikely of places if we put ourselves 8years back in time.

on the way from airport to my hotel .... in the city ... i sian aleady

so cramp ... wish theres a hotel in Seletar hill ... nice greenery

[kane]

nowadays, i only go to town when i need to buy a particular present for someone, which is like once every 2 months maybe. otherwise, i do all my shopping in the suburban neighbourhood hub. no erp and parking is also cheaper.

[bargain hunter]

even if ardmore drops to 1.5kpsf, flocks of hdb upgraders still can't upgrade. every unit at ardmore park is a standard 2885 sq ft, so still requires more than 4.3m. low for ardmore last year was 19xxpsf, still more than 5.5m. i still think the narrowing of psf doesn't mean that prime is affordable to hdb upgraders. the fact that psf is not moving up a lot for prime yet is mainly becoz the size of the units are big, which makes the quantum high.

exactly my point. how would Beyonce (if she thinks of migrating to singapore) ever see herself mingling with the crass hdb upgraders in Northoaks when a condo like Ardmore would be more befitting of her status. likewise it would be absurd for ardmore to fall to 1.5k psf which will cause flocks of hdb upgraders to move into the prime districts to spoil the image of prime condo. There has to be a differentiation for the rich and the rich wont mind paying millions just to steer clear of the hdb upgraders.

[kane]

ardmore and those at nassim, are blue blue chips. most hdb upgraders probably can't make that leap.

but the top crop of those in suburban condos might make the leap. and it would definitely help their case if the gap does indeed narrow.

[Regulators]

at 1.5k psf, i think a few households under the same family wouldnt mind squeezing into a 2xxxsf unit and the unit be bought under multiple names with multiple income streams. it is basically a no brainer for them to buy at that price when 99r condos in ulu jurong and other outlying regions are already fetching more than 1kpsf. A phenomenon will be observed, which is ardmore park turning into a kampong with the residential population size doubled/tripled.

even if ardmore drops to 1.5kpsf, flocks of hdb upgraders still can't upgrade. every unit at ardmore park is a standard 2885 sq ft, so still requires more than 4.3m. low for ardmore last year was 19xxpsf, still more than 5.5m. i still think the narrowing of psf doesn't mean that prime is affordable to hdb upgraders. the fact that psf is not moving up a lot for prime yet is mainly becoz the size of the units are big, which makes the quantum high.

[Regulators]

your so called ulu places that hollywood stars live in the States refer to landed properties (under a different property segment) and would be Singapore's equivalent of Astrid Hill and Namly Ave so you missed the point. When we talk about the rich buying high-rise condos, they usually buy them in coveted addresses. Ask Donald Trump what kind of condos he buys and he will tell you he only buys properties in the best parts of the city and facing downtown manhattan or the hudson river etc. Why the hell would a celebrity want to buy a condo in the suburbs. Even the billionaire Modi bought a unit at the top floor of the Sail which translates to the same price as a GCB in D9 or 10. Most uber rich have multiple properties which are a mixture of condos in prime districts and landed properties all over the world. they buy them either for investment (coz they dont know where else to put their money) or use them as holiday homes.

As for Hollywood stars, have you watched those "Life of the Rich and Famous"? Most of them have homes in "ulu" places away from prying eyes in large mansions with swimming pools and landscape. Chances are, your Orchard Road condo will not appeal to them. More like some "ulu" bungalows away from the crowd lah. Bad analogy.

[jlrx]

All the people here make sense. That's the problem.

Who makes more sense? Will the gap narrow or widen?

That is the million-dollar question!

Will the gap narrow or widen?

Headache!

[Regulators]

take a poll of the entire population of property investors in singapore and ask them if anyone would choose Jurong over Orchard if both locations going for 1500psf for similar sized units. I can bet my balls that not a single one of these investors would go for jurong coz rental in Orchard is still better than Jurong. if prices of private properties in orchard dips to that level, then rentals in orchard will drop to levels in the suburbs which is absurd to even think of. that being the case, what is the justification for the narrowing of the price gap?

All the people here make sense. That's the problem.

Who makes more sense? Will the gap narrow or widen?

That is the million-dollar question!

Will the gap narrow or widen?

Headache!

[urban]

All the people here make sense. That's the problem.

Who makes more sense? Will the gap narrow or widen?

That is the million-dollar question!

Will the gap narrow or widen?

Headache!

But the beauty of your Rule No. 1 is that it does not matter.
You can earn big or earn small. But either way, you will earn if you hold property long enough.

[louisebrown]

take a poll of the entire population of property investors in singapore and ask them if anyone would choose Jurong over Orchard if both locations going for 1500psf for similar sized units. I can bet my balls that not a single one of these investors would go for jurong coz rental in Orchard is still better than Jurong. if prices of private properties in orchard dips to that level, then rentals in orchard will drop to levels in the suburbs which is absurd to even think of. that being the case, what is the justification for the narrowing of the price gap?

U are serious about giving them away

[stalingrad]

take a poll of the entire population of property investors in singapore and ask them if anyone would choose Jurong over Orchard if both locations going for 1500psf for similar sized units. I can bet my balls that not a single one of these investors would go for jurong coz rental in Orchard is still better than Jurong. if prices of private properties in orchard dips to that level, then rentals in orchard will drop to levels in the suburbs which is absurd to even think of. that being the case, what is the justification for the narrowing of the price gap?

(1) there will be a gap, yes. but the gap is going to narrow substantially, and it has.

(2) Jurong is a poor example. a good example is west coast. west coast is fast approaching D10 and 9 in pricing.

ignore the trends at your own risk. instead of fighting tooth and nail, think what you should do to adjust your portfolio.

[stalingrad]

Duchess residences was launched at 2200psf and sold out. Carabelle was launched at 500-600 psf in the same year. Now the former is selling for way below 2000psf and the latter for 1000psf. need i say more?

[devilplate]

Duchess residences was launched at 2200psf and sold out. Carabelle was launched at 500-600 psf in the same year. Now the former is selling for way below 2000psf and the latter for 1000psf. need i say more?

its not a fair comparison as in the timing.

if u compare suburban/prime in the lowest point let say 2005...u wud hf make alot more in 2007 when market has peaked for prime but mass market just started to take off

yes, u made the right choice to get mass market during 2007 instead of prime ...but how long will this mass market party last from now onwards...will prime segment strike back again?

i oredi illustrated the ppty scene and every segment takes turn to shine.

for prime market, we nid huge foreign funds/investors to enter in a big way...not many locals can afford...even i also shy to enter those luxury showflats in orchard/sentosa whrby one apt easily cost 3mil++

take for eg...todays report...sentosa bungalow sold for 36MIL!!!
the seller bot in April 2007 at only 18mil from developer(at tat time, i am sure many r saying CRAZY!!! 18mil for a 99LH landed???)

ppty_owner cud be the wealthiest guy in this forum also invest in whole D65....hmm

so, our portfolio shd haf a gd mixture

[bargain hunter]

seems like u and i are the only pple in this forum to have gone for duchess residences preview and thought they are nuts. but not so exaggerated as 2200psf. i have been following the caveats,

facts: near the peak in late june 2007, wee cho yaw and friends bot at 15xx to 17xxpsf (almost half the project sold to these pple) on a monday. on thursday, public preview from 18xxpsf onwards. by thursday afternoon, 2xxxpsf was common but only 1 sucker bot at 2300psf and a handful at above 2100psf. low in crash was a penthouse cut loss at 1399psf. current pricing for "smaller" 3 bedrooms are around 15xx to 16xxpsf.

carabelle by late june 2007 was already transacting at 7xxpsf.

based on these facts, i agree with you that the psf gap has clearly closed. However, I maintain my stand that the Duchess units are a deadly combination of high psf and high sq ft. even if you say both have bay windows, planters, balconies etc, fact remains that carabelle 3 bedder is 11xx sq ft to 12xx sq ft and 4 bedders are 14xx sq ft.

duchess' smallest unit is a 3 bedroom of 14xx sq ft to 16xx sq ft (larger balcony!) and 4 bedrooms are 19xx sq ft. the rest are 24 penthouses and 24 garden mansionettes of 27xx to 3xxx sq ft.

this makes the absolute quantum significantly unaffordable even at 1500psf. only 25% were sold to foreigners so let's see how the project fares when it goes TOP in Q3 this year.

Duchess residences was launched at 2200psf and sold out. Carabelle was launched at 500-600 psf in the same year. Now the former is selling for way below 2000psf and the latter for 1000psf. need i say more?

[bargain hunter]

i agree with you on this. I will be looking to add a prime unit if it continues to lag.

its not a fair comparison as in the timing.

if u compare suburban/prime in the lowest point let say 2005...u wud hf make alot more in 2007 when market has peaked for prime but mass market just started to take off

yes, u made the right choice to get mass market during 2007 instead of prime ...but how long will this mass market party last from now onwards...will prime segment strike back again?

i oredi illustrated the ppty scene and every segment takes turn to shine.

for prime market, we nid huge foreign funds/investors to enter in a big way...not many locals can afford...even i also shy to enter those luxury showflats in orchard/sentosa whrby one apt easily cost 3mil++

take for eg...todays report...sentosa bungalow sold for 36MIL!!!
the seller bot in April 2007 at only 18mil from developer(at tat time, i am sure many r saying CRAZY!!! 18mil for a 99LH landed???)

ppty_owner cud be the wealthiest guy in this forum also invest in whole D65....hmm

so, our portfolio shd haf a gd mixture

[stalingrad]

i agree with you on this. I will be looking to add a prime unit if it continues to lag.

I wouldn't do that if I were you. The landscape has shifted for good. It is not a matter of which type takes turn to shine. As I said before, the country has pretty much homogenized, and one district is no different from another in terms of shopping and school, and what not. It does not matter whether you live in D5, D3 or D10. then, why should a price premium for D10 remain? am not saying the premium will vanish overnight. but it will be going, going, and gone in a few years.

have seen some bukit timah properties, with tiny pools and lousy gym. I wouldn't trade my d5 property for any of them. then, why would foreigners want to live there, unless their job is next door?

[bargain hunter]

i guess its a personal preference. i like the convenience at river valley area but i will be extremely selective with what i buy, many projects can't make it. (still haven't decided on which one can yet), maybe wait for the price premium to disappear then buy? hahaha. if i am buying bukit timah, i would buy landed. duchess residences looks doomed. too ex for locals (locals also have choice of landed) and i doubt foreigners would buy there like u said. i think the 20% foreign buyers were mostly indonesians who are now cursing their agents for their good recommendation.

I wouldn't do that if I were you. The landscape has shifted for good. It is not a matter of which type takes turn to shine. As I said before, the country has pretty much homogenized, and one district is no different from another in terms of shopping and school, and what not. It does not matter whether you live in D5, D3 or D10. then, why should a price premium for D10 remain? am not saying the premium will vanish overnight. but it will be going, going, and gone in a few years.

have seen some bukit timah properties, with tiny pools and lousy gym. I wouldn't trade my d5 property for any of them. then, why would foreigners want to live there, unless their job is next door?

[Wild Falcon]

You would be surprised u know. The rich and famous got some countryside hideaway one leh; some even got ranches with is their primary home.

Home, home on the ranch, where the deers and the antelopes play

Anyway, I respect your views of only investing in prime city areas or like somebody say "blue chip" companies but sometimes up and coming companies and areas do better than blue chip - it's like Baidu share price rises more than Citigroup (which was a blue chip). If you totally ignore new "growth areas" and "growth companies" in your portfolio, you may miss out on some good things in life. And the problem is SG is the luxury condos is highly dependent on foreigners demand which is transient demand that may disappear overnight. In fact, if not for govt regulation on landed properties which help prop up prime condo prices, I don't think the prime condos deserve those price tag. In short, if the landed property market is open up to foreigners, I can bet that the prime pigeon holes will start to correct - so the prices are somewhat artificially supported by landed property restrictions.

The other sad thing is unlike buying a Ferrari that gives you better horse power and driving experience, a lot of condos that sell on "location" alone don't even bother to provide proper landscape or facilities. At some point in time, people will start to feel cheated and shortchanged - so expensive but got lousy gym, small bathtub pool and no tennis court or gardens. And with MRT lines coming up everywhere and new downtown being created in Jurong and govt offices moving over, the landscape WILL change. Change is the only constant - you can choose to ignore but new areas will start to shine.

And ulu is the new cool Love to hang out at new ulu places with ample parking.

your so called ulu places that hollywood stars live in the States refer to landed properties (under a different property segment) and would be Singapore's equivalent of Astrid Hill and Namly Ave so you missed the point. When we talk about the rich buying high-rise condos, they usually buy them in coveted addresses. Ask Donald Trump what kind of condos he buys and he will tell you he only buys properties in the best parts of the city and facing downtown manhattan or the hudson river etc. Why the hell would a celebrity want to buy a condo in the suburbs. Even the billionaire Modi bought a unit at the top floor of the Sail which translates to the same price as a GCB in D9 or 10. Most uber rich have multiple properties which are a mixture of condos in prime districts and landed properties all over the world. they buy them either for investment (coz they dont know where else to put their money) or use them as holiday homes.

[devilplate]

seems like u and i are the only pple in this forum to have gone for duchess residences preview and thought they are nuts. but not so exaggerated as 2200psf. i have been following the caveats,

facts: near the peak in late june 2007, wee cho yaw and friends bot at 15xx to 17xxpsf (almost half the project sold to these pple) on a monday. on thursday, public preview from 18xxpsf onwards. by thursday afternoon, 2xxxpsf was common but only 1 sucker bot at 2300psf and a handful at above 2100psf. low in crash was a penthouse cut loss at 1399psf. current pricing for "smaller" 3 bedrooms are around 15xx to 16xxpsf.

carabelle by late june 2007 was already transacting at 7xxpsf.

based on these facts, i agree with you that the psf gap has clearly closed. However, I maintain my stand that the Duchess units are a deadly combination of high psf and high sq ft. even if you say both have bay windows, planters, balconies etc, fact remains that carabelle 3 bedder is 11xx sq ft to 12xx sq ft and 4 bedders are 14xx sq ft.

duchess' smallest unit is a 3 bedroom of 14xx sq ft to 16xx sq ft (larger balcony!) and 4 bedrooms are 19xx sq ft. the rest are 24 penthouses and 24 garden mansionettes of 27xx to 3xxx sq ft.

this makes the absolute quantum significantly unaffordable even at 1500psf. only 25% were sold to foreigners so let's see how the project fares when it goes TOP in Q3 this year.

during tat period in feb-june, i rem i was busy attacking all the undervalued mass market resale

i dun even noe duchess exist...

tat period, some mass market condo prices nvr moved since 2003!!!

[devilplate]

I wouldn't do that if I were you. The landscape has shifted for good. It is not a matter of which type takes turn to shine. As I said before, the country has pretty much homogenized, and one district is no different from another in terms of shopping and school, and what not. It does not matter whether you live in D5, D3 or D10. then, why should a price premium for D10 remain? am not saying the premium will vanish overnight. but it will be going, going, and gone in a few years.

have seen some bukit timah properties, with tiny pools and lousy gym. I wouldn't trade my d5 property for any of them. then, why would foreigners want to live there, unless their job is next door?

one day when the prime market start to take off again...be sure u still in this forum

or mabe u will become 2nd calvenng...by tat time u say u sold all ur mass market and oredi bot orchard