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Thread: The Minton (D19, 99 years leasehold, Kheng Leong)

  1. #241
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    That is a fair point. But it just shows if not for govt intervention in the past, suburban properties would have gone up even more. The potential is there - it's just waiting to be realised. And I suspect going forward, govt policies will be more targeted at specuvestors - just like China targeting 2nd or 3rd property investment while not hurting genunine owners-occupiers. Singaporeans are already unhappy that govt policies are always targeted to hurt the "masses" - if the govt is smart about the ground sentiments - new policies will be formulated to hit speculators which are more dominant in the prime districts, esp the mickey mouse units that have sprung up in the prime areas and city fringe.

    Just observe recent policies on seller stamp duty etc. - who is this targeted at?

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    2km nearer the city can take 15 mins to drive in Singapore you know!
    We all know that the govt is only concerned about mass market prices and any significant increase will always be met with measures to temper the price.

  2. #242
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    its like forumers flavors upp bukit timah over potong pasir.

    pricing is not solely based on the pyhsical distance to the city.

    orchard/sentosa will always attracts the rich and famous. they go for specific 'address.

    when i m still studying, i used to tink those ppl who drives(even a hyundai getz/picanto) r not financially prudent. during peak hrs, MRT is actually faster!

    when i own my first jap car, den i begin to tink y wud ppl want to spend 200k for a BMW/Merc....and the story goes on

  3. #243
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    "Developers MCC Land has put in the top bid of S$131.7 million for a land parcel at the corner of Sembawang Road and Canberra Drive.

    The bid works out to S$387 per square foot per plot ratio.

    The second highest bid from SP Setia International came in at S$122.6 million.

    Nam Hee Contractor and OPH Marymount submitted the third highest bid of S$111 million.

    The lowest bid of S$85 million came from Frasers Centrepoint.

    All in, the Housing and Development Board received seven bids.

    Analysts said projects at the site would have a breakeven cost of between S$650 and S$750 psf, with the units possibly selling at between S$700 and S$820 psf."

    This may jolly well mean the baseline for new project leasehold properties is going to be starting from 800 psf onwards!

  4. #244
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ultroman
    Hsbc quoted me 0.85+sibor all yrs
    that package is off the shelf, not specific to any property. I think that's it's pretty good on it's own already, with 5 yrs fire insurance, Home Assist etc. Of course, can always squeeze for more, altho not sure how much more.

  5. #245
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    Orchard at 3k of course is not under priced. Maybe fair pricing. But 350 to 400 psf, where in 2006 got such pricing? Which project? And today 800 psf? Even if there is any, it is limited. Maybe 1 or 2 only. I don't think many 350 in 2006 is 800 psf now. Then again, if you really want to compare, in 2006, Icon is 800 psf. The increase is the same %. But including rental, which one do you think make more $ over 4 years?




    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    During the lows, the suburban properties is only 350-400psf (in 2006). Today, they are 800psf, the return is NOT insignificant lah. When you look at return, please look at Return on Equity - the return on your invested capital which exceeds 100%.

    And the time saved from suburbs to city fringe is only at most few minutes. The worst traffic is from city fringe to city. I stayed near Orchard Road before - it still took me 15 min to drive to Tanjong Pagar during peak hours. Staying further away from Orchard in the suburbs, it took me maybe 18 min? What I'm trying to say is your WILL be surprised how little time you save driving in Singapore. That is assuming fairly wealthy middle class do not take MRT. Even MRT from Orchard to Tanjong Pagar + walking + waiting time is easily 30 min! So you will realise the time saved is over-hyped. Of course that's assuming you don't stay in crazily jammed up places along the CTE.

    And I realise people shout Location Location Location without looking at VALUE. Is Orchard Road still undervalued at $3000psf? If you still think so, go ahead and buy. Once a location is overvalued, its about time to move on, take a bet at other locations that no one looks at. Its always more exciting to be first mover than to follow blindly.

  6. #246
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    You still don't understand me lah. I'm trying to say please don't use the past performance to gauge future growth potential. It's like developed countries in Europe grew at an astounding rate in the past 20 years while developing countries like China and India lag behind. Look at Europe TODAY - do you think Europe still has greater runway to grow compared to China and India? In fact, some developed areas may have "overshoot" its true value due to overleverage and may start to correct. If you were an investment professional or property developer, would you prefer to invest your funds in Europe (because it is "blue chip" and grow faster in the past 20 years) or say "untested" Vietnam? It's just a rhetorical question - no need to answer. Similarly, would you prefer to invest your funds in areas that have all amenities and MRT stations and shopping malls and all would you just take a risk to move out? Does investing in developed countries/areas guarantee success? In short, it depends on when you enter the market - if you're late in the game - you better be creative and start to look out for "new" areas instead of just following the crowd.

    Definitely got mass market at those prices in 2006 because I bought one mah

    Quote Originally Posted by Squall8888
    Orchard at 3k of course is not under priced. Maybe fair pricing. But 350 to 400 psf, where in 2006 got such pricing? Which project? And today 800 psf? Even if there is any, it is limited. Maybe 1 or 2 only. I don't think many 350 in 2006 is 800 psf now. Then again, if you really want to compare, in 2006, Icon is 800 psf. The increase is the same %. But including rental, which one do you think make more $ over 4 years?

  7. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    Definitely got mass market at those prices in 2006 because I bought one mah
    which project u bot? from 350psf till now 800psf?

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    its like forumers flavors upp bukit timah over potong pasir.

    pricing is not solely based on the pyhsical distance to the city.

    orchard/sentosa will always attracts the rich and famous. they go for specific 'address.

    when i m still studying, i used to tink those ppl who drives(even a hyundai getz/picanto) r not financially prudent. during peak hrs, MRT is actually faster!

    when i own my first jap car, den i begin to tink y wud ppl want to spend 200k for a BMW/Merc....and the story goes on
    Got upp bt timah being favoured over potong pasir meh? If u mean 'upp' bt timah as in around hillview, pricing not tt fantastic as that city fringe leh ...

    But you've illustrated a valid point lah ... yesh, desires also can change one & nvr-ending ..

  9. #249
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    at the suites de laurel thread we were supporting the jalan anak bukit area ie toh tuck side vs potong pasir hehehe...hillview side is further off.

    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    Got upp bt timah being favoured over potong pasir meh? If u mean 'upp' bt timah as in around hillview, pricing not tt fantastic as that city fringe leh ...

    But you've illustrated a valid point lah ... yesh, desires also can change one & nvr-ending ..

  10. #250
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    btw, ppty consultants still think May sales is a 4D number leh...i still dun think so.

    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    Got upp bt timah being favoured over potong pasir meh? If u mean 'upp' bt timah as in around hillview, pricing not tt fantastic as that city fringe leh ...

    But you've illustrated a valid point lah ... yesh, desires also can change one & nvr-ending ..

  11. #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    You still don't understand me lah. I'm trying to say please don't use the past performance to gauge future growth potential. It's like developed countries in Europe grew at an astounding rate in the past 20 years while developing countries like China and India lag behind. Look at Europe TODAY - do you think Europe still has greater runway to grow compared to China and India? In fact, some developed areas may have "overshoot" its true value due to overleverage and may start to correct. If you were an investment professional or property developer, would you prefer to invest your funds in Europe (because it is "blue chip" and grow faster in the past 20 years) or say "untested" Vietnam? It's just a rhetorical question - no need to answer. Similarly, would you prefer to invest your funds in areas that have all amenities and MRT stations and shopping malls and all would you just take a risk to move out? Does investing in developed countries/areas guarantee success? In short, it depends on when you enter the market - if you're late in the game - you better be creative and start to look out for "new" areas instead of just following the crowd.

    Definitely got mass market at those prices in 2006 because I bought one mah
    taking the future potential growth, we saw sembawang bid and other OCR bids possibly launching at minimum 800psf, what is the future potential here?

    in 2006 if you have bought prime, you would have gained a lot more. e.g. southbank and newton suites

    as cheerful said, desirability plays a big part too and is most often tied to locations.

  12. #252
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    oh i see (toh tuck side) .ok, roger now ..

    possibly low end of the 4D maybe?? Another wk's time .. counting down to the revealing of #

  13. #253
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    revising my number down to 0893 for a 60% drop over april LOL...since u chope 9xx liao.


    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    oh i see (toh tuck side) .ok, roger now ..

    possibly low end of the 4D maybe?? Another wk's time .. counting down to the revealing of #

  14. #254
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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    revising my number down to 0893 for a 60% drop over april LOL...since u chope 9xx liao.
    hehehee... so pessimistic ah? okies, I take 10xx units. I still think it will cross 1k.

  15. #255
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    yay, finally someone joined our monthly guessing game. but like 10xx is any much better than 893 lor. 100+ units nia. LOL.

    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    hehehee... so pessimistic ah? okies, I take 10xx units. I still think it will cross 1k.

  16. #256
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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    yay, finally someone joined our monthly guessing game. but like 10xx is any much better than 893 lor. 100+ units nia. LOL.
    absolute quantum not a lot of difference, but in % terms will be at least 20% higer than your estimates.

    forum so quiet these days... looks like all the bulls have either gone on holiday or gone to hibernate. Even jlrx is preaching less of his propertism this days....

  17. #257
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    don't worry, he's still there, reading...probably will appear since u called him out.

    yeah, so quiet until i resorted to posting "The Noose" on the property market sentiments 2010 thread hahaha. they took a jab at condo names and mickey mouse units. i must be really bored.

    20% higher than mine still means -55% from apr figures, not much diff lah.

    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    absolute quantum not a lot of difference, but in % terms will be at least 20% higer than your estimates.

    forum so quiet these days... looks like all the bulls have either gone on holiday or gone to hibernate. Even jlrx is preaching less of his propertism this days....

  18. #258
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    very bored indeed...stock cannot play, forex duno how, not much showflat to visit

    go holidays! but i went 5 trips this yr liao...

  19. #259
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    1st sentence describes exactly the same as what i am doing.

    2nd sentence, i m not so fortunate to be able to travel with such frequency and ease.


    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    very bored indeed...stock cannot play, forex duno how, not much showflat to visit

    go holidays! but i went 5 trips this yr liao...

  20. #260
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    The fact is - If the govt had not intervened in 2007 to tame the property bubble especially the mass market ones, the mass market property prices will never go up so much now and the majority of suburb private property owners will have negative equity, everyday fearing of banks asking for top-up, fore-closure, and harassed by loan sharks even till now!

    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    That is a fair point. But it just shows if not for govt intervention in the past, suburban properties would have gone up even more. The potential is there - it's just waiting to be realised. And I suspect going forward, govt policies will be more targeted at specuvestors - just like China targeting 2nd or 3rd property investment while not hurting genunine owners-occupiers. Singaporeans are already unhappy that govt policies are always targeted to hurt the "masses" - if the govt is smart about the ground sentiments - new policies will be formulated to hit speculators which are more dominant in the prime districts, esp the mickey mouse units that have sprung up in the prime areas and city fringe.

    Just observe recent policies on seller stamp duty etc. - who is this targeted at?

  21. #261
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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    very bored indeed...stock cannot play, forex duno how, not much showflat to visit
    actually in the post Lehman/minibonds/Madoff world, lots of people are becoming more jittery over investing in mutual funds, equities or any debt instrument(s) that they do not understand. Properties therefore have become more desirable as a result.

    There is still a lot of liquidity in this part of the world. Just see what happened over the past year in the mass market segment.

    I also am in the same boat - stock dare not touch, forex dunno how, so well.... sit tight and wait and see lor.

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    that being the case, doesn't that make equities relatively undervalued since it is overlooked and the "crowded trade" is with property?

    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    actually in the post Lehman/minibonds/Madoff world, lots of people are becoming more jittery over investing in mutual funds, equities or any debt instrument(s) that they do not understand. Properties therefore have become more desirable as a result.

    There is still a lot of liquidity in this part of the world. Just see what happened over the past year in the mass market segment.

    I also am in the same boat - stock dare not touch, forex dunno how, so well.... sit tight and wait and see lor.

  23. #263
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    Not a fair analogy by the way.
    You should ask in the current world, in the same country, whose income can grow much faster than the property prices? It is the income that has the most effect on property prices. The answer is: the rich.

    The rich only buy prime properties, not mass market properties. As such, when prime properties shoot up a lot, nobody cares as the rich can take care of themselves financially (otherwise they won't be rich!).
    As for mass market, if the prices shoot up too much, the fall will be horrendeous and soon many of these will be home-less from fore-closure or harassed by loan sharks! Something similar had happened before in 1997 and Singapore govt is determined to see the same won't happened again to the mass market property prices.

    Everywhere we go now, the prime properties are usually many times the multiple of mass market properties and the ratio is still increasing. This is true in London, New York, Paris, etc. In London, for example, the properties in Zone 1 (similar to Singapore CCR) could be up to 10 times that in Zone 4 (similar to Singapore OCR), and this is a good comparison to Singapore because the whole of London is about the size of Singapore. Only Singapore is peculiar in that the CCR is on average about 2-3x that of OCR. I let people decide whether the ratio of CCR/OCR prices will increase or decrease? (if we know about London which is a very developed country vs Singapore still developing). There was a time when this CCR/OCR ratio is smaller but this is getting bigger and bigger. Are the general masses making so much money as to comfortably can afford a mass market property at >$1000 psf or the rich can comfortable afford a prime property at >$3000 psf? Who is likely to be more stretched now? If the mass market property prices can go up to $1500 psf, then won't prime property be worth more than $4500 psf even if assume the same ratio?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    You still don't understand me lah. I'm trying to say please don't use the past performance to gauge future growth potential. It's like developed countries in Europe grew at an astounding rate in the past 20 years while developing countries like China and India lag behind. Look at Europe TODAY - do you think Europe still has greater runway to grow compared to China and India? In fact, some developed areas may have "overshoot" its true value due to overleverage and may start to correct. If you were an investment professional or property developer, would you prefer to invest your funds in Europe (because it is "blue chip" and grow faster in the past 20 years) or say "untested" Vietnam? It's just a rhetorical question - no need to answer. Similarly, would you prefer to invest your funds in areas that have all amenities and MRT stations and shopping malls and all would you just take a risk to move out? Does investing in developed countries/areas guarantee success? In short, it depends on when you enter the market - if you're late in the game - you better be creative and start to look out for "new" areas instead of just following the crowd.

    Definitely got mass market at those prices in 2006 because I bought one mah

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    that being the case, doesn't that make equities relatively undervalued since it is overlooked and the "crowded trade" is with property?
    totally agree... but my favs such as SPH, SP Ausnet, Ezra all quite laggard leh... also dunno when will bottom out....

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    very bored indeed...stock cannot play, forex duno how, not much showflat to visit

    go holidays! but i went 5 trips this yr liao...
    Haha.... for me

    very bored indeed...stock drowning, forex duno how, have showflat to visit (FV & Minton) but too lazy, maybe go disturb my agent friends...

    go bz & holidays! but i went to 7 states & 3 countries liao... fatigue siah...

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    Quote Originally Posted by jencrs
    that package is off the shelf, not specific to any property. I think that's it's pretty good on it's own already, with 5 yrs fire insurance, Home Assist etc. Of course, can always squeeze for more, altho not sure how much more.
    realize for DBS package for Minton loan disbursement starts 3 mth aft loan (not by loan disbursement). Also got lock-in 1 yr period. Since Minton is big project may not be as good as it seems ... Jus wonder when the construction will start

  27. #267
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    In Singapore, it's the fat middle class How many tycoons are there? Then the usual thing about foreigners tycoon will come in a buy up all our prime properties. Well....

    Anyway, different viewpoints. I note your views that CCR can be 10x the price of OCR. In short, Orchard Road property can be $10,000 psf if suburban property is $1000psf. Only time will tell. But I still prefer looking for gems and fundamental analysis, i.e. look for future development and potential instead of pure technical analysis which appears to be your forte because you tend to use reference points (e.g. London) instead of future potential of an area. Different style I guess. And with the same quantum of investment, I have have 3 units to play around with (buy and sell at will) in the suburbs - this flexibility and liquidity is important to me.

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Not a fair analogy by the way.
    You should ask in the current world, in the same country, whose income can grow much faster than the property prices? It is the income that has the most effect on property prices. The answer is: the rich.

    The rich only buy prime properties, not mass market properties. As such, when prime properties shoot up a lot, nobody cares as the rich can take care of themselves financially (otherwise they won't be rich!).
    As for mass market, if the prices shoot up too much, the fall will be horrendeous and soon many of these will be home-less from fore-closure or harassed by loan sharks! Something similar had happened before in 1997 and Singapore govt is determined to see the same won't happened again to the mass market property prices.

    Everywhere we go now, the prime properties are usually many times the multiple of mass market properties and the ratio is still increasing. This is true in London, New York, Paris, etc. In London, for example, the properties in Zone 1 (similar to Singapore CCR) could be up to 10 times that in Zone 4 (similar to Singapore OCR), and this is a good comparison to Singapore because the whole of London is about the size of Singapore. Only Singapore is peculiar in that the CCR is on average about 2-3x that of OCR. I let people decide whether the ratio of CCR/OCR prices will increase or decrease? (if we know about London which is a very developed country vs Singapore still developing). There was a time when this CCR/OCR ratio is smaller but this is getting bigger and bigger. Are the general masses making so much money as to comfortably can afford a mass market property at >$1000 psf or the rich can comfortable afford a prime property at >$3000 psf? Who is likely to be more stretched now? If the mass market property prices can go up to $1500 psf, then won't prime property be worth more than $4500 psf even if assume the same ratio?

  28. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Not a fair analogy by the way.
    You should ask in the current world, in the same country, whose income can grow much faster than the property prices? It is the income that has the most effect on property prices. The answer is: the rich.

    The rich only buy prime properties, not mass market properties. As such, when prime properties shoot up a lot, nobody cares as the rich can take care of themselves financially (otherwise they won't be rich!).
    As for mass market, if the prices shoot up too much, the fall will be horrendeous and soon many of these will be home-less from fore-closure or harassed by loan sharks! Something similar had happened before in 1997 and Singapore govt is determined to see the same won't happened again to the mass market property prices.

    Everywhere we go now, the prime properties are usually many times the multiple of mass market properties and the ratio is still increasing. This is true in London, New York, Paris, etc. In London, for example, the properties in Zone 1 (similar to Singapore CCR) could be up to 10 times that in Zone 4 (similar to Singapore OCR), and this is a good comparison to Singapore because the whole of London is about the size of Singapore. Only Singapore is peculiar in that the CCR is on average about 2-3x that of OCR. I let people decide whether the ratio of CCR/OCR prices will increase or decrease? (if we know about London which is a very developed country vs Singapore still developing). There was a time when this CCR/OCR ratio is smaller but this is getting bigger and bigger. Are the general masses making so much money as to comfortably can afford a mass market property at >$1000 psf or the rich can comfortable afford a prime property at >$3000 psf? Who is likely to be more stretched now? If the mass market property prices can go up to $1500 psf, then won't prime property be worth more than $4500 psf even if assume the same ratio?
    living in the UK, you have a choice to live much further out like a johor equivalent in terms of distance and commute via train, that in itself defrays some of the demand for the zone 4 properties. for singapore, the furthest you can go is woodlands, beyond which you'll fall off into the sea.

  29. #269
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    teddybear has a point abt CCR.
    although dun forget the entire City of London is ran by the financial industry. these are the guys with huge bonuses.
    there is a long way to go before reaching that. 1st SG has to reach HK.
    In HK, an area equivalent in ulu'ness as Yishun has a psf of S$1500. Whereas an area as CCR as Orchard has a psf of $7000 to $10000. Compared with this, SG's OCR is getting close, whereas CCR still has a long way to go.
    So in a way, SG's CCR has more upside than OCRs.

    But SG does not have the rich mainland china behind, neither does it have the big fat financial industry like HK/London, the CCR up side may take a long time to realize

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    that being the case, doesn't that make equities relatively undervalued since it is overlooked and the "crowded trade" is with property?
    equities doesnt seem to be overvalued currently

    however, i do not see any strong rally in the near term...looks more like dead cat bounce rally every now and den

    stocks may remains flattish and i wud choose to monitor. once volume and interest starts, its not too late to enter...remember..for equities, puny retail investors like us can only make $ by riding on the wave aka trend

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